Monday, March 29, 2010

MPH System Audit IV Part III: Middle Infielders


1. A SS Wilmer Flores R/R 8/6/91 (A Savannah .264/.305/.332/.637, 129 for 488, 44 runs, 20 2b, 2 3b, 3 HR, 36 RBI, 22/72 BB/K)

Flores was the Mets prize signing out of the three big name IFAs they signed in 2007. He arrived with a splash in 2008, torching the Appy League as a 16/17 year old, to the tune of a .850 OPS. The Mets rightfully pushed Wilmer to the Sally League in 2009, and he had mixed results.

Flores opened the 2009 season in Savannah, where he had his ups and downs. His K rate (.148) was excellent, his BB/K (.3056) was good for his age, but he hit for no power whatsoever (68 IsoP). However, much like Jefry Marte, he had stretches of season where he was downright impressive with his ability to hit for a high average and not strike out. Combining his months of April, June, July and September, Flores hit .296/.330/.378/.708 in 307 ABs, with just 40 Ks (.130 K rate), and a 11/40 BB/K (.2750). Conversely, in his down months (May and August), he hit just .210/.263/.254/.517 in 181 ABs, with 32 Ks (.177 K rate), but a better BB/K ratio (11/32, .3438).

Flores is an advanced hitter, as evidenced by his holding his own for the majority of the 2009 season, and his flat out domination in 2008. He has a strong line drive approach which is conducive to hitting for power, and he can also hit for a high average. Flores doesn't strike out, which bodes well for the future, as he fills out and begins to hit the ball with more authority. Flores will likely have to be moved off shortstop in the future, but he doesn't have the speed/range to play the outfield. A move to either corner infield spot is the best option, however, with David Wright and (hopefully) Ike Davis entrenched there, it will be interesting to see what happens.

THE FUTURE: Flores likely showed enough with the bat to warrant a promotion to the FSL, but we'll say he spends two seaons there before moving up, putting him 4 years out, sometime in the 2013 season.

2. A+ SS/2B Reese Havens L/R 10/20/86 (A+ St. Lucie .247/.361/.422/.784, 89 for 360, 53 runs, 19 2b, 3b, 14 HR, 52 RBI, 55/73 BB/K, AFL Surprise .368/.478/.658/1.136, 14 for 38, 9 runs, 3 2b, 3b, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 8/9 BB/K)

Total 2009 Stats: .259/.372/.445/.817, 103 for 398, 62 runs, 22 2b, 2 3b, 16 HR, 57 RBI, 63/82 BB/K, .206 K rate, .7683 BB/K ratio

The Mets picked Havens with the 2nd of their 3 first round picks in 2008, 22nd overall out of South Carolina, and sent him to Brooklyn, where he showed considerable power (11 XBH in 85 ABs, .471 SLG, 8th in the NYPL). He was hampered by injuries, however, and therefore couldn't get into a consistent rhythm. Injuries followed him up to the FSL in 2009, but he performed very well there.

The Mets sent Havens to the FSL for 2009, where he did well, outside of a low batting average, all of his periphals were extremely good (114 IsoD, 175 IsoP). During the Arizona Fall Leauge, the Mets began the process of moving Havens to 2b, a process which will continue during the 2010 season, in Binghamton.

Havens has very good power for his position, and yet, he is also a very disciplined hitter (55/73 BB/K in St. Lucie, 63/82 overall), who doesn't strike out a lot (.203 K rate), and draws a very healthy amount of walks (114 IsoD). He's iffy defensively, which is why the Mets are moving him to 2b (well, along with Jose Reyes blocking SS's in the organization for the next decade (we hope)). Havens has the arm and range for 2b, and should be adequate at the position.

THE FUTURE: Havens will open 2010 in Binghamton, and should be in a position to challenge Luis Castillo and/or Ruben Tejada for the 2b job sometime in 2011.

3. AA SS/2B Ruben Tejada R/R 9/1/89 (AA Binghamton .289/.351/.381/.732, 141 for 488, 59 runs, 24 2b, 3 3b, 5 HR, 46 RBI, 37/59 BB/K, 19/22 SBs, AFL Surprise .254/.338/.373/.711, 15 for 59, 9 runs, 4 2b, HR, 9 RBI, 6/9 BB/K, 4 SBs)

Total 2009 Stats: .285/.350/.380/.730, 156 for 547, 68 runs, 28 2b, 3 3b, 6 HR, 55 RBI, 23/26 SBs, 43/68 BB/K, .124 K rate, .6324 BB/K ratio

The Mets signed Tejada out of Panama in the summer of 2006, and he began the 07 season in the Venezuelan Summer League, but performed at such a high level that the Mets secured a visa for him and brought him stateside, assigning him to the rookie level Gulf Coast League. 2008 saw Tejada in St. Lucie where he struggled bigtime. However, the Mets (IMO, foolishly) promoted Tejada to Binghamton in 2009, where he had a very good season, batting .290/.350 at age 19.

Tejada was sent to Binghamton for the 2009 season, and he performed very well, showing off a very good eye, and knowledge of the strike zone (.121 K rate, .6271 BB/K ratio). Tejada also showed off some good power with 24 2b and 5 homers in 488 ABs, and a very good success rate in steals (86.36%). Factoring out his awful April (.222/.347/.286/.632), Tejada hit an impressive .299/.351/.395/.746 in 425 ABs

Tejada is a line drive gap hitter who should rack up doubles and triples, but not many HRs. His big value will be getting on base and then using his speed to steal bases and wreak havoc atop a batting order. Tejada likely is going to move to 2b in 2010, playing in Buffalo.

THE FUTURE: Tejada will open the season in the majors playing shortstop while Jose Reyes is on the DL, then likely go down to Buffalo and move to 2b.

Edit: And now it looks like he won't, lol. He should open 2010 in Buffalo playing 2b.

4. R/A 2b Alonzo Harris R/R 11/16/89 (R Kingsport .273/.321/.447/.768, 69 for 253, 49 runs, 4 2b, 5 3b, 10 HR, 39 RBI, 17/59 BB/K, 15/21 SBs, A Savannah .200/.259/.200/.459, 5 for 25, 3 runs, 3 RBI, 2/8 BB/K)

Total 2009 Stats: .266/.316/.424/.740, 74 for 278, 52 runs, 4 2b, 5 3b, 10 HR, 42 RBI, 19/67 BB/K, 15/21 SBs

Harris was drafted by the Mets in the 39th round of the 2007 draft out of McComb High in Mississippi, and began his pro career in the GCL in 2008. The Mets conservatively sent Harris to Kingsport in 2009, where he performed well, before a late season 23 AB cameo in Savannah to end his season.

Harris spent the bulk of his 09 with rookie level Kingsport, where he hit well. 7 of his 10 HRs came in the month of July, when he ripped the Appy League up to the tune of .306/.366/.541/.906 in 111 ABs. Consistency was Harris' big downfall in 2009, as in August, he hit just .232/.275/.357/.632 in 112 ABs.

Harris is an all or nothing hitter at this point in his career, which leads to Ks and HRs. Harris' best tool offensively is likely his speed, he is one of the fastest minor leaguers the Mets have. Harris is shaky defensively at 2b, so a move to CF is not out of the question.

THE FUTURE: Harris should open 2010 in Savannnah, and ascend a level per season thereafter, putting him in AAA in 2013, and in a position to be called up that season or the next.

5. All Over 2b Jordany Valdespin 12/23/87 L/R (A Savannah .322/.366/.480/.846, 49 for 152, 30 runs, 9 2b, 3 3b, 3 HR, 18 RBI, 11/32 BB/K, 7/9 SBs, R DSL .333/.421/.600/1.021, 5 for 15, 2 3b, 5 RBI, 3/1 BB/K, 1/2 SBs, R GCL .174/.208/.174/.382, 4 for 23, 1/3 BB/K, SB, A- Brooklyn .279/.338/.397/.735, 19 for 68, 10 runs, 3 2b, 3b, HR, 5 RBI, 5/16 BB/K, 4/7 SBs, DWL Licey .300/.300/.450/.750, 6 for 20, 4 runs, HR, 2 RBI, 3 SBs)

Total 2009 Stats: .299/.346/.439/.784, 83 for 278, 44 runs, 12 2b, 6 3b, 5 HR, 30 RBI, 16/22 SBs, 20/52 BB/K, .187 K rate, .3846 BB/K ratio

Valdespin got off to a roaring start in April, prompting people from all over the prospect community to scower the web/their sources for information on the sudden sensation. Valdespin, who played the whole season at age 21, got off to a .385/.406/.615/1.021 start in April, before disciplinary issues landed him on the suspension list. After that, he went on a tour of the system, with stops in the DSL, GCL, and then Brooklyn. He's got talent, but whether he can mature (read: get his head extracted from his ass) is the question.

Valdespin has most of his power to the pull side, and much like Alonzo Harris, he is a feast or famine hitter, though he seemed to make strides in that department this season. Valdespin has decent speed, as evidenced by his 16 steals, but nothing earth-shattering. He's athletic and fluid when playing 2b, but isn't a good defensive shortstop. He does have a strong arm, which leads him to try and make plays he shouldn't.

THE FUTURE: Valdespin played in both Savannah and Brooklyn, meaning he should open 2010 in St. Lucie, and then ascend a level per season, making his debut sometime in the 2013 season.

6. A+ 2b Hector Pellot R/R 2/8/87 (A+ St. Lucie .277/.352/.373/.725, 98 for 354, 48 runs, 17 2b, 4 3b, 3 HR, 39 RBI, 37/70 BB/K, 15/26 SBs)

7. A- SS Robbie Shields R/R 12/7/87 (A- Brooklyn .178/.273/.267/.540, 26 for 146, 14 runs, 4 2b, 3 3b, HR, 9 RBI, 16/32 BB/K, 2 SBs)

Shields was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2009 draft, and after signing he was sent to Brooklyn where he had a dreadful season, hitting to a .540 OPS in 146 ABs. Shields also suffered a tear in his UCL, resulting in Tommy John surgery and expectations that he will miss the bulk of the 2010 season.

Shields has a short compact swing which generates some good pop, though he displayed none of that in his short stint in Brooklyn. He, like Reese Havens, profiles better as a 2b. Many (including me) called Shields the righty Havens when he was picked, the scouting reports are similiar.

THE FUTURE: Shields, when he does come back off the injury/rehab/surgery, will likely play in Brooklyn again, and then jump to the FSL in 2011, putting his ETA around late 2013 or 2014.

8. AAA/AA SS Jose Coronado S/R 4/13/86 (AAA Buffalo .141/.240/.165/.404, 12 for 85, 4 runs, 2 2b, 3 RBI, 11/22 BB/K, 2 SBs, AA Binghamton .271/.322/.330/.651, 98 for 361, 37 runs, 16 2b, 3b, HR, 40 RBI, 27/66 BB/K, 11/15 SBs, VWL Caribes .235/.335/.301/.637, 32 for 136, 14 runs, 5 2b, 2 3b, 16 RBI, 19/32 BB/K, 5/9 SBs)

Total 2009 Stats: .244/.313/.299/.612, 142 for 582, 55 runs, 23 2b, 3 3b, HR, 59 RBI, 18/26 SBs, 57/120 BB/K, .206 K rate, .4750 BB/K ratio

9. R SS Wilfredo Tovar R/R 8/11/91 (R VSL .289/.364/.421/.785, 11 for 38, 3 runs, 3 2b, 3b, 2 RBI, 5/3 BB/K, 1/2 SBs, R GCL .243/.294/.318/.611, 36 for 148, 21 runs, 5 2b, 3 3b, 14 RBI, 8/19 BB/K, 16/24 SBs)

Total 2009 Stats: .253/.309/.339/.648, 47 for 186, 24 runs, 8 2b, 4 3b, 16 RBI, 13/22 BB/K, 17/26 SBs

10. R 2b Ray Van Gurp R/R 1/2/89 (R GCL .252/.361/.305/.666, 38 for 151, 25 runs, 6 2b, 3b, 21 RBI, 27/22 BB/K, 16/21 SBs

Thursday, March 25, 2010

MPH System Audit IV: Part II: Corner Infielders


1. A+/AA 1B Ike Davis L/L 3/22/87 (A+ St. Lucie .288/.376/.486/.863, 64 for 222, 28 runs, 17 2b, 3 3b, 7 HR, 28 RBI, 31/52 BB/K, AA Binghamton .309/.386/.565/.951, 64 for 207, 30 runs, 14 2b, 13 HR, 43 RBI, 26/60 BB/K, BWC .333/.444/.767, 10 for 30, 10 runs, 2 2b, 3b, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 6/11 BB/K, AFL Surprise .341/.394/.565/.958, 29 for 85, 13 runs, 7 2b, 4 HR, 16 RBI, 8/23 BB/K)

Total 2009 Stats: .307/.387/.544/.931, 167 for 544, 81 runs, 40 2b, 4 3b, 27 HR, 92 RBI, 71/146 BB/K, .268 K rate, .4863 BB/K ratio

Ike Davis was the Mets first pick in the 2008 draft, 18th overall, out of Arizona State, and he was sent to Brooklyn after signing, where he endured a miserable season, hitting a pathetic .256/.326/.326/.652 in 215 ABs, with just 15 2b and 0 HR.

However, Davis exploded in 2009, mashing the cover off the ball no matter where he was, St. Lucie, Binghamton, the Baseball World Classic, or Arizona. He ended up with one of the best overall seasons a Mets prospect has had in a long time, with 40 2b and 27 HR.

Ike has tremendous power (um, as we saw on his absurd BOMB to right field in St. Lucie), and especially to the pull side. He has issues hitting lefties (.200/.234/.283/.518 in the FSL, but he did turn that around to hit .268/.342/.465/.807 in the EL). Davis is a very good first basemen, but as we've seen this spring, he does have some kinks to work out. His arm is very good, and it's likely he could man left field if he needed to (he doesn't have the range for RF, especially @ Citifield).

THE FUTURE: Davis, despite his big spring so far, should open 2010 in the minors, likely in Buffalo, though a return to Binghamton wouldn't be a total shock. What also wouldn't be be a total shock is Ike taking 1b from Daniel Murphy by midseason. Still, we'll say he'll be the 2011 opening day 1b.

2. AAA/AA/MLB 1B/OF Nick Evans R/R 1/30/86 (AAA Buffalo .211/.280/.414/.693, 50 for 237, 27 runs, 12 2b, 3 3b, 10 HR, 30 RBI, 23/55 BB/K, AA Binghamton .276/.350/.467/.817, 29 for 105, 16 runs, 9 2b, 3b, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 10/22 BB/K, 2 SBs, MLB New York, .231/.275/.385/.660, 15 for 65, 5 runs, 5 2b, 3b, HR, 7 RBI, 4/20 BB/K, AFL Surprise .171/.216/.371/.588, 6 for 35, 4 runs, 2b, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 2/11 BB/K)

Total 2009 stats: .226/.289/.419/.708, 100 for 442, 52 runs, 27 2b, 5 3b, 16 HR, 50 RBI, 39/108 BB/K, .244 K rate, .3611 BB/K ratio

Nick Evans was drafted in the 5th round of the 2004 draft out of St. Mary's High in Arizona. After toiling through the system for 5 years, Evans made his MLB debut in 2008, but opened 2009 in BUffalo.

EVans endured a tumultuous 2009, after getting off to a sub .100 start in Buffalo, he was demoted to extended spring, then Binghamton, where he recovered his stroke (.817 OPS). Still, for whatever reason, as the major league season progressed to the point of absurdity, Evans did not receive any meaningful playing time, in favor of stiffs like Cory Sullivan and Fernando Tatis. Evans, despite his terrible season, did hit 16 HR and 27 2b in 442 ABs, showing very good power.

THE FUTURE: He should open 2010 in Buffalo playing LF/RF/1b, and hopefully he gets another real crack at the majors. Keep in mind he hit .329/.390/.529/.919 against lefties in 2009 in the majors.

3. A+/AA 3b Zach Lutz R/R 6/3/86 (A+ St. Lucie .284/.381/.441/.822, 101 for 356, 46 runs, 19 2b, 2 3b, 11 HR, 62 RBI, 50/72 BB/K, AA Binghamton .207/.324/.241/.565, 6 for 29, 2b, 2 RBI, 5/7 BB/K)

Total 2009 Stats: .278/.376/.426/.802, 107 for 385, 46 runs, 20 2b, 2 3b, 11 HR, 64 RBI, 55/79 BB/K

Lutz was drafted in the 5th round of the 2007 draft out of Alvernia University, and injuries have severely hampered him throughout his minor league career, but when he's been healthy, he's hit. For the majority of the 2009 season, he was healthy, and showed what he could do.

Lutz was healthy for the first time in his career in 2009, and after a slow start in St. Lucie (.230/.370/.391/.761 thru the end of May), Lutz took off thereafter, ripping the FSL to the tune of .301/.384/.457/.842 and earning a cup of coffee with Binghamton.

Lutz can hit, he is a very disciplined hitter (50/72 BB/K in St. Lucie, 5/7 in Binghamton), who sprays the ball gap to gap and has good HR power. Due to concurrent ankle injuries in 2007 and 2008, Lutz' speed, such that it was, is not an asset at all. As with his hitting, he's an intelligent runner who won't run himself into many outs. Lutz is a decent defender at 3b, with good range to his left (backhand) side. Overall, Lutz should be a very good player, but it likely will not be with the Mets (Wright/Davis).

THE FUTURE: Lutz ended 2009 in Binghamton and that's where he wants to go (not way down in Kokomo) in 2010 (I apologize for the horrible joke). Figuring 2011 will be spent in Buffalo, we'll say he makes his MLB debut sometime in 2011. Lutz will have to be put onto the 40 man roster at the end of this season, or be eligible for the Rule V draft (it's 2006 HS and 2007 college this year).

4. R/A- Richard Lucas 11/2/88 R/R (R GCL .333/.400/.500/.900, 6 for 18, run, 3 2b, 3 RBI, 2/5 BB/K, R Kingsport .357/.471/.622/1.094, 35 for 98, 28 runs, 12 2b, 3b, 4 HR, 21 RBI, 20/20 BB/K, A- Brooklyn .250/.319/.400/.719, 15 for 60, 4 runs, 5 2b, 2 3b, 6 RBI, 7/14 BB/K)

Total 2009 Stats: .318/.414/.534/.948, 56 for 176, 33 runs, 20 2b, 3 3b, 4 HR, 30 RBI, 29/39 BB/K, 3/6 SBs

Lucas was drafted in the 4th round of the 2009 draft, out of Wolfson High in Florida. After struggling through his first two seasons with the Mets, he turned it on big time in 2009.

Lucas had a terrific 2009 season, his 3rd in the organization. He was injured to start, and then received the bulk of his playing time this season in Kingsport, where he oblierated the Appy League and showed tremendous plate discipline (20/20 BB/K) and outstanding power (.622 SLG, 17 XBH in 98 ABs).

Lucas has natural ability to hit the ball to all fields, and shows good power doing so. As mentioned, he's got very good plate discipline, which allows him to wait for his pitch and then hit it hard somewhere. Defensively, Lucas is an average 3rd baseman, with a steady arm.

THE FUTURE: Coming off a terrific season, Lucas will likely open 2010 in Savannah manning 3rd base (hopefully with Jefry Marte at 1st!), and then a level per season should have him in position to make his debut sometime in 2013, or 2014 at the latest.

5. AA 1B Lucas Duda L/R 2/3/86 (AA Binghamton .281/.380/.428/.808, 111 for 395, 49 runs, 29 2b, 3b, 9 HR, 53 RBI, 61/91 BB/K, AFL Surprise .400/.500/.600/1.100, 2 for 5, run, 2b, 2 RBI, BB)

Total 2009 Stats: .283/.381/.430/.811, 113 for 400, 50 runs, 30 2b, 3b, 9 HR, 55 RBI, 62/91 BB/K, .228 K rate, .6813 BB/K ratio

Duda was drafted in the 7th round of the 2007 draft out of USC. He spent the remainder of the 2007 season in Brooklyn, before moving to the FSL in 2008, where he had a very down year.

Duda rebounded off a down 2008 season to post career highs in 2b and HR, but he still hasn't shown off the power one would expect from someone as big as he is (6'4/225). Duda vastly improved his BB/K ratio from 2008 (.5516 to .6703). Duda cannot hit lefty pitching to save his life (.192/.283/.225/.508 in 120 ABs)

As seen throughout his minor league career, especially in 2007 and 2009, Duda's got a very good notion of the strike zone. Duda is a line drive gap to gap hitter, but he did start hitting for more power late in the season in Binghamton. Duda's an average defensive 1b, and adequate in LF, but he won't win many (if any) games with his defense.

THE FUTURE: Duda likely could handle being the lefty part of a MLB platoon right now, but he will instead attempt to gain a clue against LHP in AAA in 2010. He's not on the 40 man roster, so he likely won't be called up this season, and he doesn't have to be put on the 40 man roster until the end of this season.

6. A 3b Jefry Marte R/R 6/21/91 (A Savannah .233/.279/.338/.617, 113 for 485, 58 runs, 21 2b, 6 3b, 6 HR, 41 RBI, 25/117 BB/K, 5/10 SBs)

The Mets signed Jefry Marte in the IFA signing period of 2007, along with OF Cesar Puello and SS Wilmer Flores. He was sent to the GCL in 2008 and had a banner rookie season, and then endured an awful 2009.

Marte had a dismal season in 2009, both offensively and defensively. Besides hitting for just a .617 OPS, Marte made 49 errors in 123 games, and keep in mind he DHed a few games, too. However, also keep in mind he played the season at age 17/18. And, for his age relative to level, he had an OK offensive season, and there were points where he was downright impressive. Combining his April, June and July numbers, roughly half his season, he hit .271/.315/.385/.700 (81 for 299, 42 runs, 15 2b, 5 3b, 3 HR, 30 RBI, 17/71 BB/K). However, the downside to that, of course, is that in the other 186 ABs, Marte hit .172/.222/.263/.486.

Marte, as we saw last year (.532 SLG, 21 XBH in 154 ABs), Marte's got impressive raw power, which should be enhanced as he physically matures. However, the lack of any approach curtailed his power numbers significantly (.2136 BB/K). He mostly pulls the ball, which leaves him vunerable to breaking balls away. Defensively, he's a mess, with not much lateral movement, and a strong, but unpredictable, arm at third.

THE FUTURE: Marte likely will open 2010 back in Savannah, this time either outright as the teams 1b, or in a 1b/3b platoon with Richard Lucas. Assuming some growth as a hitter, Marte should open 2011 in St. Lucie, and ascend a level per year, making his MLB debut sometime in 2013. A more conservative approach would give him time to repeat a level along the way (again), pushing his debut back to 2014.

7. A/A+ 1b/3b Stefan Welch L/R 8/12/88 (A Savannah .239/.271/.359/.630, 22 for 92, 7 runs, 3 2b, 3b, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 4/19 BB/K, A+ St. Lucie .278/.350/.412/.762, 60 for 216, 38 runs, 10 2b, 2 3b, 5 HR, 37 RBI, 20/37 BB/K)

Total 2009 Stats: .266/.327/.396/.724, 82 for 308, 45 runs, 13 2b, 3 3b, 7 HR, 47 RBI, 24/56 BB/K

8. R 1b/3b/LF Charlie Hinojosa R/R 1/16/89 (R GCL .323/.387/.441/.828, 41 for 127, 10 runs, 12 2b, HR, 15 RBI, 9/30 BB/K)

9. R 3b Aderlin Rodriguez R/R 11/18/91 (R GCL .290/.389/.387/.776, 18 for 62, 5 runs, 3 2b, HR, 10 RBI, 9/15 BB/K, 12 errors in 17 games (he also DHed some))

Aderlin Rodriguez made his pro debut in 2009, playing in the GCL. He had an OK offensive season, and showed off some good plate discipline (.6000 BB/K at age 17), but no power and was a total mess in the field.

Aderlin is a big kid (6'3/210), and should show off more power as he gains strength and grows into his frame. Aderlin has a strong arm and should develop into a good defensive 3b, but he's extremely raw right now.

THE FUTURE: Aderlin will likely open 2010 in Kingsport (since he's blocked in Savannah), although there is a possibility he could open in Brooklyn, which would shorten his development schedule by one season (the Mets like jumping prospects from Kingsport to Savannah, and from Brooklyn to St. Lucie). If he opens 2010 in Kingsport, his MLB debut will likely occur in the 2014 season, if he opens in Brooklyn, it would be in 2013 (assuming no setbacks with performance)

10. AA 3b Shawn Bowman R/R 12/9/84 (AA Binghamton: .294/.346/.458/.804, 102 for 347, 42 runs, 24 2b, 3 3b, 9 HR, 44 RBI, 25/101 BB/K, .291 K rate, .2475 BB/K ratio, BWC: .291/.381/.491, 16 for 55, 9 runs, 2 2b, 3 HR, 15 RBI, 8/18 BB/K)

Total 2009 Stats: .294/.351/.463/.813, 118 for 402, 51 runs, 26 2b, 3 3b, 12 HR, 59 RBI, 33/119 BB/K, .296 K rate, .2773 BB/K ratio

Bowman was drafted in the 12th round of the 2002 draft, and by 2005, was one of the Mets top prospects, and was rumored to be "moving David Wright to first base". That never happened, as Bowman instead succumbed to a series of debilitating back injuries over the next 3 years. He made a comeback over the last 2 seasons, and has landed back onto the radar, but time is against him, unfortunately, as is Ike Davis at 1b. However, Bowman is still the best defensive 3b in the organization, and he was placed on the 40 man roster to protect him from the Rule V draft. Bowman has...or had, terrific power, but his injuries have somewhat curtailed that.

THE FUTURE: Bowman should open 2010 in Buffalo, and is a phone call away from the majors. His story is one of endurance, and MPH feverently hopes he makes the majors at some point this season, we're all rooting for him.

Sunday, March 21, 2010

MPH System Audit IV, Part I: Introduction and Outfielders

MPH System Audit IV

Welcome to the 2010 MetsProspectHub System Audit. This year, I consulted 3 other people to get their opinions and feelings. Of course, David, my cowriter (well, you know) and co-founder of MPH, and then a couple of very good friends, Joey DeMayo of, and Daniel Wexler (

2009 was a total mess...on the major league side. Mess really doesn't even begin to cover what happened to the New York Mets in 2009, but that's in the rearview mirror. On the minor league side, however, 2009 was one of the best seasons in a long time, and 2010 promises to be significantly more exciting. For the first time in what seems like forever, the Mets did not strip off any prospects during 2009, leaving a nice stable of VERY exciting prospects. Talking to Joe, Dan and David, none of them can remember the last time the Mets had this many prospects across the top 3 levels. Below are writeups on most of them.

MPH's Position by Position Prospect Analysis and Ranking
-featuring contributions from David, Dan and Joe, written by Tejesh
-thanks to NYFS ( for having up to date player profile capsules with relevant information handy!
-B/T is next to age and is in that order
-prospect eligibility for MPH is hitherto defined as 200 ABs or 100 IP in the majors, without regard to days spent on the roster

Affiliate Guide (2009):

Buffalo: AAA International League (new)
Binghamton: AA Eastern League
St. Lucie: A+ Florida State League
Savannah: A South Atlantic League (Sally)
Brooklyn: A- New York Penn League (Penn)
Kingsport: R Appalachian League (Appy)
GCL Mets: R Gulf Coast League
DSL Mets: R Dominican Summer League
VSL Mets: R Venezuelan Summer league


1. AAA/MLB OF Fernando Martinez L/R 10/10/88 (AAA Buffalo .290/.337/.540/.877, 51 for 176, 24 runs, 16 2b, 2 3b, 8 HR, 28 RBI, 11/33 BB/K, 2/3 SBs, MLB New York .176/.242/.275/.517, 16 for 91, 11 runs, 6 2b, HR, 8 RBI, 5/14 BB/K, 2 SBs)

Total 2009 Stats: .251/.304/.449/.754, 67 for 267, 35 runs, 22 2b, 2 3b, 9 HR, 36 RBI, 4/5 SBs, 16/47 BB/K

The Mets signed Fernando out of the Dominican in the IFA signing period of 2005 for 1.3 million, and since then, he's made a slow trek through the system (due to injuries), but last season cracked through to the major leagues. He started off in Hagerstown in 2006, spent two seasons (2007, 2008) in Binghamton, and last season played in Buffalo, and had a 91 AB stint with the Mets.

Fernando got hurt again in 2009, but managed to make his major league debut after having a torrid month of May in Buffalo (.337/.378/.663/1.041, 31 for 92, 17 runs, 7 2b, 3b, 7 HR, 20 RBI, 6/12 BB/K). He injured himself trying to make a diving catch in Milwaukee, playing CF, and did not appear in a game again.

Fernando still has a very high ceiling, despite being around forever, he will play all of 2010 at the age of 22, which is right on target for AAA, which is where he should play the entire season. Fernando still has considerable power projection left to all fields, as he displays during BP. As we saw in 2009, Fernando is faster then we we led to believe, and he can definitely play center field, something we were told he couldn't do (ok, ok, one epic fall/slide aside), he was solid filling in for Beltran. He should also steal between 15 and 25 bases in a season, definitely not a slouch. He still projects as an above average offensive player, no matter what OF spot he ultimately ends up playing.

THE FUTURE: Fernando made his MB debut in 2009, but should open 2010 in Buffalo, and hopefully will spnd all of the upcoming season there, before being permanently inserted into the lineup in 2011.

2. A+/AA OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis L/R 8/7/87 (A+ St. Lucie .274/.357/.467/.824, 132 for 482, 91 runs, 35 2b, 5 3b, 16 HR, 71 RBI, 53/118 BB/K, 16/20 SBs, AA Binghamton .406/.472/.656/1.128, 13 for 32, 8 runs, 3 2b, 3b, HR, 2 RBI, 4/9 BB/K, 1/2 SBs)

Total 2009 Stats: .282/.364/.479/.843, 145 for 514, 99 runs, 38 2b, 6 3b, 17 HR, 73 RBI, 57/127 BB/K, 17/22 SBs, .247 K rate, .4488 BB/K ratio

The Mets drafted Nieuwenhuis out of Azusa Pacific University in the 3rd round of the 2008 draft, and he spent his rookie season with Brooklyn, before being bumped up to St. Lucie for 2009, where he got off to an uneven beginning.

Nieuwenhuis had one of the hottest stretches in all of minor league ball during the second half of 2009. Between July 8th and September 2nd, Kirk hit a blistering .340/.411/.602/1.013 (70 for 206, 47 runs, 20 2b, 5 3b, 8 HR, 40 RBI, 24/48 BB/K). He ended his season in Binghamton where he didn't slow down, hitting .406/.472/.656/1.128 in 32 ABs.

Nieuwenhuis, as we saw in 2009, hits tons of XBH. Of his 145 hits, 61 of them (42.06%) were for extra bases (38 2b, 6 3b, 17 HR). He hits the ball well to all fields, and is a gap to gap hitter , but he struggles against LHP (just .233/.297/.346/.642 in 2009 in St. Lucie), and he also Ks a ton (127 Ks in 514 ABs), but provides good production from the outfield to make up for it, and is a possible 20-20 or 25-25-25 player. Nieuwenhuis has a good arm and probably profiles best as a right fielder, but for at least 2010, he will play center.

THE FUTURE: Kirk had a 32 AB cameo in Binghamton at the tail end of 2009, and this is where he will play most (if not all) of 2010. He should end his season in Arizona, and that sets him up to be a callup sometime in 2011.

3. R OF Cesar Puello R/R 4/1/91 (R Kingsport .296/.373/.423/.796, 58 for 196, 37 runs, 10 2b, 5 HR, 23 RBI, 10/51 BB/K, 15/20 SBs)

The Mets signed three IFAs in 2007, Wilmer Flores, Jefry Marte, and this guy, Cesar Puello. The other two were rushed further then Puello, who's been handled carefully, with good results. Puello played the 08 and 09 seasons in short season rookie ball, 08 in the GCL, and 09 in Kingsport.

Puello spent the 2009 season in short season rookie ball, playing for the Kingsport Mets of the Appalachian League, where he hit .296/.373/.423/.796 in 196 ABs. As he did in 2008, Puello got off to a slow start in 2009, hitting just .265/.324/.294/.618 in 34 June ABs, before coming on strong. From July 1st to the end of the season, Puello hit extremely well, .302/.383/.451/.833, though he was hit by 12 pitches in that span, inflating his OBP by 44 points.

Much of Puello's offensive game is still projection, as he's a) just 18, and b) has yet to cross the 200 AB barrier. He does have some pop in his bat, as evidenced by the .423 SLG and 127 IsoP, but he needs to refine his strike zone discipline in order to maximize his tools (again, he's just 18, so he has time to do that). Unlike most hitters, Puello can recognize offspeed/breaking pitches, which should help him transition to fullseason this season. Puello has good speed, as evidenced by his 15/20 success rate in steals in 2009. Puello also has a strong arm, so much so that the Mets used him exclusively in RF in 2009, and will do so again in 2010. He has very good range, owing to his speed.

THE FUTURE: Puello should open 2010 in Savannah, and he most likely will spend the whole season there (at age 19), but it wouldn't be a shock to see him end in St. Lucie. Conservative promotions from there should have him spend his age 20 season there, age 21 in Binghamton, age 22 in Buffalo, and then age 23 breaking into the majors (2014).

4. A+ OF Brahiam Maldonado R/R 9/18/85 (A+ St. Lucie .273/.348/.466/.813, 112 for 410, 62 runs, 19 2b, 3 3b, 18 HR, 73 RBI, 43/126 BB/K, 13/17 SBs)

The Mets drafted Brahiam Maldonado in the 10th round of the 2004 draft out of St. Francis High in Puerto Rico. After being drafted, Maldonado spent two seasons in the GCL, then Kingsport (2006), Savannah (2007), then the last two seasons in St. Lucie (08 and 09).

Maldonado enjoyed a second half rebirth of his prospect status, after for all the world looking like a total flameout. After hitting a pathetic .226/.277/.377/.653 over the first two months of the season, Maldonado EXPLODED, blistering the FSL to the tune of a .299/.384/.515/.900

Maldonado still strikes out at an extreme clip, over .300 again this season, and it will be this flaw which permanently puts the kabosh on his resurrected prospect status in 2010. He's got good speed and a good enough arm to play the corner outfield spots, but neither is anythign special.

THE FUTURE: Maldonado will definitely open 2010 with the BMets, and as I said, his fatal K rate will serve to permanently destroy his resurrected prospect status, unless, of course, he can bring it under control somehow. If he does, he should be poised to make his major league debut sometime in late 2011 or 2012.

5. A+/AA OF Carlos Guzman L/R 5/24/86 (A+ St. Lucie .290/.347/.453/.800, 137 for 472, 59 runs, 28 2b, 2 3b, 15 HR, 64 RBI, 39/95 BB/K, 6/11 SBs, AA Binghamton .130/.200/.261/.461, 3 for 23, 2 runs, HR, 3 RBI, 1/7 BB/K)

Total 2009 Stats: .283/.340/.444/.785, 140 for 495, 61 runs, 28 2b, 2 3b, 16 HR, 67 RBI, 40/102 BB/K, 6/11 SBs

Guzman was signed as a UDFA out of Brookdale Community College in 2006, and since has been mostly unheralded, first in the GCL in 2007, then Savannah (08), before exploding onto the scene in 2009 with a terrific first two months in St. Lucie.

Guzman launched himself onto prospect lists with a vengence in 2009, setting career highs in every offensive category, all while playing a good corner outfield. Guzman started off hot in St. Lucie, hitting .300/.354/.498 through the first two months of the season before falling into a deep slump (.220/.282/.370) over his next two months, before having the best month of his season in August, a blistering .396/.446/.523 which earned him a 23 AB cameo in Binghamton, where he should play all of 2010.

Guzman is a fastball hitter who has trouble with advanced breaking pitches, which should hamper him in 2010, unless he improves. He began switch hitting this year, and that is a definite work in progress, as he hit just .202/.305/.219/.525 from the right side of the plate. Guzman is a decent runner and athlete, and also has decent range, but he has a good arm, his best asset on the defensive side of the ball.

THE FUTURE: Guzman, as we said, will open 2010 in Binghamton, where his fringy prospect status will be put to the test by advanced offspeed pitches. If he passes the test, he will face another in 2011 at the AAA level, and if he passes that, he will make his MLB debut in 2012, likely as a power bat off the bench.

6. A/A+ OF Sean Ratliff L/L 2/24/87 (A Savannah .265/.312/.451/.763, 124 for 468, 64 runs, 28 2b, 7 3b, 15 HR, 68 RBI, 31/131 BB/K, 11/17 SBs, A+ St. Lucie .286/.286/.357/.643, 8 for 28, 3 runs, 2 2b, 6 RBI, 10 Ks)

Total 2009 Stats: .266/.311/.446/.756, 132 for 496, 67 runs, 30 2b, 7 3b, 15 HR, 74 RBI, 11/17 SBs, 31/141 BB/K, .284 K rate, .2199 BB/K ratio

Ratliff was drafted in the 4th round of the 2008 draft out of Stanford, and spent his rookie season in Brooklyn, before opening 2009 in fullseason ball, with Savannah.

Ratliff spent the vast majority of the season in Savannah where he had bursts of great production (.346 thru his first 26 games, .552 in the final week of April, .321 in May), but he was also ICE cold for long stretches of time, ending up with pedestrian numbers at age 22 in the Sally League.

Ratliff needs to cut down on his strikeouts, and also find a more consistent approach, as his wild fluxuations in production last season show. Ratliff profiles best as a left fielder, since he doesn't have the range for center (even though he spent most of 2009 playing center for Savannah), or the arm for right. He's got average speed at best, and the 11 steals he had last season should be close to his max output.

THE FUTURE: Ratliff should open 2010 in St. Lucie, and a level per season after means he should be in position to make the majors sometime in 2012. However, his high K totals may serve to derail him, much as Brahiam Maldonado.

7. 7. A- Nick Santomauro L/R 6/13/88 (A- Brooklyn .241/.368/.441/.809, 35 for 145, 18 runs, 5 2b, 3 3b, 6 HR, 21 RBI, 28/38 BB/K, 1/5 SBs)

Santomauro was drafted in the 10th round of the 2009 draft out of Dartmouth, and spent his rookie season in Brooklyn, where he didn't hit for much of an average, but showed very good periphials (127 IsoP, 200 IsoD).

Santomauro has good natural power (as his 200 IsoP indicates), but he does need to work on hiting for average. His eye is good (127 IsoD), and that should help him when he makes the jump to high A in 2010. He has good speed, but isn't a basestealer, he's more of a 1st to 3rd on a single type runner. His speed helps him cover ground in the outfield, but he sometimes takes bad routes to the ball. Santomauro, like Ratliff, is best profiled as a left fielder.

THE FUTURE: Santomauro should open 2010 in St. Lucie, and I expect him to have a breakout much like Kirk Nieuwenhuis did (although Kirk is definitely much more toolsy then Nick). A level per season after that puts him in the majors sometime in 2012/2013.

8. 8. A- Luis Rivera R/R 10/12/86 (A- Brooklyn .297/.402/.441/.844, 66 for 222, 38 runs, 14 2b, 3 3b, 4 HR, 34 RBI, 37/53 BB/K, 13/16 SBs)

9. R Darrell Ceciliani 6/22/90 (R Kingsport .234/.313/.310/.623, 37 for 158, 29 runs, 6 2b, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 13/31 BB/K, 14/16 SBs)

Ceciliani was taken in the 4th round of the 2009 draft out of Columbia Basin College in Washington State, and after signing, was sent to Kingsport where he showed flashes of the type of player he could be in the future, hitting .303/.361/.447/.809 in 76 July ABs, with 5 2b, 2 HR and 8 steals. However, outside of that one month, he was abysmal.

Ceciliani is a slap hitter who uses his speed to his advantage, he won't hit for much power, but he will be a threat on the bases. Ceciliani also uses his speed to be a plus defender in center field, and he's got the arm for the position, too. Ceciliani's best comp would be Juan Pierre.

THE FUTURE: Ceciliani should open 2010 with Savannah, and ascending a level per season after that puts him on track for a debut sometime in 2013.

10. R Chase Greene R/R 4/22/90 (R GCL .286/.361/.397/.758, 18 for 63, 7 2b, 5 RBI, 7/10 BB/K, 2 SBs)

The Mets took Greene in the 16th round out of West Boca Raton High in Florida, and assigned him to the GCL, where he performed very well. Greene projects much as Ceciliani does, a speedy slap hitter who profiles best as a leadoff hitter and centerfielder with plus range.

THE FUTURE: Greene should open 2010 with either Savannah, or Kingsport, and depending on which it is, that will determine when he's in a position to make his MLB debut. It will either be in 2013 or 2014.

Monday, March 08, 2010

A little Spring Cleaning

We're experimenting with another chat box. Tell us which you like better...

AND ALSO, for those of you not following us on Twitter, the System Audit will be out either 3/15 or 3/22.

AND AND ALSO - if you want us to do anything to/with the blog, a widget you want, features you want, articles throughout the season, etc...let us know that, too.

Edit: Observation from someone:

Jenrry Mejia sold his soul to the devil for his rugged good looks and unparalleled pitching ability. Shortly after the transaction was finalized, Jenrry roundhouse kicked the devil in the face and took his soul back. The devil, who appreciates irony, couldn't stay mad and admitted he should have seen it coming. They now play poker every second Wednesday of the month.

Saturday, March 06, 2010

3/6 Spring Minor League Report! FERNANDO, IKE!

lf Fernando Martinez 4 for 4, 3 runs, 2 HR (2), 2 RBI (4), .667
3b Shawn Bowman 1 for 1, run, .500
1b Ike Davis 3 for 5, run, 2b, 2 RBI (6), 2 Ks, .538
c Josh Thole 1 for 2, run, K, .333
rf Kirk Nieuwenhuis 2 for 5, run, 2b, 2 RBI, K, .333
ss RUben Tejada 2 for 4, 2 RBI, K, .357

Wednesday, March 03, 2010

Remember our banner contest from 2009?

Lets do another one. Submit your banners to our email address,, and we'll put them up for vote like we did last season.

Opening day is April 8th, and I'd like a banner by April 2nd, so...have fun!