Starting Pitchers
1. Jon Niese 10/27/86 (22.25) L/L (AA Binghamton 6-7, 3.04 era, 22 GS, 2 CG, CGSO, 124.1 IP, 118 H, 53/42 R/ER, 5 HR, 44/112 BB/K, 1.50 GO/FO, .253 BAA, 1.30 WHIP, AAA New Orleans 5-1, 3.40 era, 7 GS, 39.2 IP, 34 H, 15 ER, 4 HR, 14/32 BB/K, 1.66 GO/FO, .231 BAA, 1.21 WHIP, MLB New York 1-1, 7.07 era, 3 GS, 14 IP, 20 H, 11 ER, 2 HR, 8/11 BB/K, 1.38 GO/FO, .333 BAA, 2.00 WHIP)
Total 2008 Stats: 12-9, 3.44 era, 32 GS, 178 IP, 172 H, 79/68 R/ER, 11 HR, 66/155 BB/K, 1,53 GO/FO, .255 BAA, 1.34 WHIP
Niese was drafted in the 7th round of the 2005 draft, after allowing a staggering 1 run in 78 innings, for a 0.11 ERA. He was deemed a tough sign, but after a recruiting call from Gary Carter, he signed for above slot money, $175,000. He was sent to the Gulf Coast League, where he went 1-0, 3.65 in 7 games, 5 starts.
In 2006, Niese started in Hagerstown, skipping Kingsport and Brooklyn. He showed no ill effects of the jump, posting a very good line of: 11-9, 3.93 era, 25 GS, 123.2 IP, 121 H, 62 BBs, 132 Ks, 1.48 WHIP, and before late season arm fatigue, was dominating the South Atlantic League. A late promotion to St. Lucie produced mixed results. His first start was decent, as he allowed 3 runs, 1 earned, in 5 innings, while walking 3, striking out 5 and allowing 3 hits. His next start, however, was not good, as he surrendered 5 runs, 4 earned, over 5 innings, while walking 2, striking out 5 and allowing 5 hits. Combined, his two starts in St. Lucie yielded the following line: 0-2, 4.50 era, 2 GS, 10 IP, 8 H, 5 BBs, 10 Ks, 1.30 WHIP. Combined for the 2006 season, Niese had an overall line of: 11-11, 3.97 era, 27 GS, 133.2 IP, 129 H, 67/142 BB/K, 1.47 WHIP, 4.51 BB/9, 9.56 K/9.
Niese spent all of the 2007 season in St. Lucie, where he worked on his control, sacrificing all else, work which paid off in a big way in 2008. For the 07 season, Niese posted a line of: 12-7, 4.02 era, 29 GS, 143.1 IP, 155 H, 34/122 BB/K, 1.32 WHIP. He lowered his walk rate from the previous year by over half, from 4.51 per 9 to 2.13 per 9, however he allowed almost a hit more per 9 innings then the previous season. The tradeoff was acceptable to fans of Mr. Niese, as a lowered walk rate would help him in the future.
For the 2008 season, Niese was promoted to Binghamton, where he spent the majority of it dominating the EL. While his overall line in AA is excellent, there was a particularly brutal 4 game stretch where he compiled a diasterous 0-3, 9.17 line. If you removed those 4 starts from his AA season, his line would look like this: 18 GS, 106.2 IP, 96 H, 24 ER, 38/102 BB/K, 6-3, 2.02 era. Obviously this isn't really telling of much, as all pitchers have rough stretches, but it shows one thing, that outside of 4 starts, Niese dominated the EL. Further, if you removed those 4 starts from his entire minor league season, his numbers look like this: 25 GS, 146.1 IP, 130 H, 39 ER, 52/134 BB/K, 11-5, 2.40 era. Keep in mind that he had one tune up start of 2.2 innings before making his major league debut. This start skews his IP/GS down considerably. Taking that start out of the above line yields 24 GS totalling 143.2 innings, an average of just under 6 innings per start.
Niese throws a fastball, curveball and changeup, though he did experiment with a cutter during the season, throwing it in on righties. His 4 seam fastball is in the low 90s, generally sitting 91-93, though he loses velocity on it later in games. He displays good command over this pitch, but it is a mostly straight fastball, hence the cutter he began throwing. Niese's bread and butter is a slow mid 60s-low 70s 12-6 curveball which he uses to get his Ks. He also has a harder, sharper curveball which he throws in the upper 70s. He finishes off his arsenal with a 76-79 changeup which is still in development.
Niese gets his fair share of Ks, but he doesn't try and blow the ball past hitters (as he did during his first 2 seasons in the system). He has learned to use his curveball effectively and spot his fastball, pitching more to contact and lessening his pitch counts. At this point, Niese is pretty much a finished product, he may further refine his changeup/cutter combination, but it is safe to say he will settle in as an above average #4 starter in the NL, or an average #3. Niese, who made his MLB debut in 2008 during the pennant race, should open 2009 in Buffalo, and be on call should a long string of starts be needed from someone. The Mets likely would not want him to just spot start and then return to AAA.
2. Brad Holt 10/13/86 (22.33) R/R (UNC Wilmington 11-1, 3.18 era, 15 GS, 2 CG, 93.1 IP, 78 H, 40/33 R/ER, 8 HR, 36/95 BB/K, .225 BAA, A- Brooklyn 5-3, 1.87 era, 14 GS, 72.1 IP, 43 H, 18/15 R/ER, 3 HR, 33/96 BB/K, 0.98 GO/FO, .171 BAA, 1.05 WHIP)
Total 2008 Stats: 16-4, 2.61 era, 29 GS, 165.2 IP, 121 H, 69/191 BB/K, 1.15 WHIP
The Mets drafted Holt with the 3rd pick in the first round, 33rd overall, out of UNC Wilmington, and after signing for $1,040,000, he was assigned to short season Brooklyn, where he excelled, posting a 1.87 era in 72.1 innings with 96 Ks. Holt as as high of a ceiling as any SP prospect in the system, thanks to his plus fastball which reaches into the upper 90s at times, a velocity he can maintain deep into games.
Holt has one of the most explosive fastballs in the system, sitting in the mid 90s with the ability to dial it into the 96-98 range when he needs to. His command over the pitch is excellent, and his ability to maintain velocity deep into games is very promising (everyone by now should know the story of his 147th pitch of a college game being a 96 MPH fastball). What has most people very excited about Holt is the rapid pace by which his secondary pitches developed. Indeed, his curveball is now very close to being a plus pitch, sitting in the 78-82 range with very good late break. He tops off his arsenal with a fringe-average changeup which he uses very rarely.
Holt has true front of the rotation potential with a deadly fastball/curveball combination. His changeup, while fringy, showed enough improvement throughout the season that starting him off in St. Lucie shouldn't be too big of an issue. Holt was drafted out of college and so there is every chance he could see Binghamton halfway through the season. A split season in 2010 as well would put him on track for an opening day 2011 debut, or the Mets could be conservative and push that date back a year by advancing Holt a level per season.
3. Scott Moviel 5/7/88 (20.75) R/R (A Savannah 9-8, 4.43 era, 24 GS, 120 IP, 128 H, 75/59 R/ER, 9 HR, 36/82 BB/K, 1.71 GO/FO, .271 BAA, 1.37 WHIP, A+ St. Lucie 1-0, 0.00 era, GS, 5 IP, 2 H, 1/2 BB/K, 0.86 GO/FO, .133 BAA, 0.60 WHIP)
Total 2008 Stats: 10-8, 4.25 era, 25 GS, 125 IP, 130 H, 75/59 R/ER, 9 HR, 37/84 BB/K, 1.65 GO/FO, .266 BAA, 1.34 WHIP
The Mets selected Moviel in the 2nd round, with their 77th pick in the 2007 draft, out of St. Edward High School in Ohio. Moviel was 6-2 in his senior season with a 1.62 era for the Eagles with 102 strikeouts in 50.1 IP. After drafting him, the Mets sent him to the GCL, where he performed well, with a 3.38 era in 40 innings. As with most tall pitchers (Moviel's 6'10), his delivery can sometimes get out of whack, so the Mets may take a slower approach with Moviel, keeping him in extended spring training to work out any kinks. However, as with Vineyard, it wouldn't be a shock to see Moviel end up in the Sally League sometime this season.
Moviel instead started off the year in Savannah, where he had an absolute miserable start to his season, posting a 1-4 record with a 9.86 era in 5 starts, spanning just 17.2 innings. Removing April from his season, he ended up with this line: 9-4, 3.35 era, 20 GS, 107.1 IP, 100 H, 29/71 BB/K, 1.20 WHIP, 8.39 H/9, 2.43 BB/9, 5.95 K/9, 5.367 IP/GS
Moviel throws 4 pitches, a 4 seam fastball which sits in the low to mid 90s, a sinker which is a few ticks lower in velocity, a curveball and a changeup. His change sits in the mid 70s with good down break, although sometimes he experiments with turning it over, moving it laterally across the zone. His curve was his best pitch during his rookie season, but in 2008, he developed bad habits with it, often bouncing it.
With Moviel's build (6'11/235), and stuff, given time he could develop into a serious innings eater, capable of throwing 210 innings easily in a season. Moviel is a quick worker who doesn't look for alot of Ks, prefering to pitch to contact and allow his defense to work for him (which would explain his awful April, since the Gnats at the time were a very young, raw defensive team). Moviel's fastball, which gained 3 MPH during the season, could eventually top out in the mid 90s, but even if it doesn't, his poise and smarts will serve him well on his climb to the majors.
Moviel will be out until May recovering from knee surgery (to repair his meniscus), and may spend a few weeks rehabbing in the GCL after that, but then he should spend the remainder of the season in St. Lucie, and then one level per year puts him on track for a 2012 debut.
4. Bobby Parnell 9/8/84 (24.42) R/R (AA Binghamton 10-6, 4.30 era, 24 GS, 127.2 IP, 126 H, 66/61 R/ER, 14 HR, 57/91 BB/K, 1.52 GO/FO, .258 BAA, 1.43 WHIP, AAA New Orleans 2-2, 6.64 era, 5 G, 4 GS, 20.1 IP, 25 H, 16/15 R/ER, 9/23 BB/K, 1.06 GO/FO, 1.67 WHIP, .298 BAA, MLB New York 0-0, 5.40 era, 6 G, 5 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 2/3 BB/K, 1.40 GO/FO, .176 BAA, 1.00 WHIP, AFL Peoria Saguaros 3-1, 2.25 era, 7 GS, 20 IP, 15 H, 5 ER, 9/20 BB/K, 1.20 WHIP, .211 BAA)
Total 2008 Stats: 15-9, 4.37 era, 42 G, 35 GS, 173 IP, 90/84 R/ER, 169 H, 77/137 BB/K, 1.42 WHIP, .255 BAA, 1.40 GO/FO
The Mets selected Parnell in the 9th round of the 2005 draft out of Charleston Southern College, where he had simply an abysmal junior year (3-5, 8.86). However, Met scouts saw something in Parnell, and the Mets drafted and signed him, sending him to Brooklyn. Parnell excelled in Brooklyn, going 2-3, but with a 1.73 era in 15 games, 14 starts. In 2006, the Mets sent Parnell up to Hagerstown, their Sally League affiliate, where he performed decently, 5-10 with a 4.04 era in 18 GS. A 3 game trip to the FSL proved disasterous, leading to an 0-1, 9.26 line in 11.2 innings.
Parnell began 2007 in St. Lucie, where he performed very well, 3-3, 3.25 in 12 GS. The Mets then promoted Parnell to Binghamton, where he struggled, but showed flashes of brillance (0-2, 3.13 era in 4 GS, 18 IP in June and 4-1, 3.24 era in 6 GS, 33.1 IP in August). Indeed, if you removed Parnell's last 4 starts, he would've ended his stint in Binghamton with a 7-7, 3.86 line. Parnell should open the 2008 season right where he ended 2007, in Binghamton, with a mid-season promotion to New Orleans not out of the question.
Parnell did indeed open 2008 back in Binghamton, where he got off to a horrific start with a 0-2, 7.15 era, 5 GS, 22.2 IP, 23 H, 14/13 BB/K, 1.63 WHIP line in April. However, he then posted back to back extremely solid months, with a combined 8-2, 3.04 era, 12 GS, 71 IP, 63 H, 30/56 BB/K, 1.31 WHIP line in May and June. Parnell was promoted to AAA on August 9th, where he struggled mightily, before being promoted to the majors to try and save what was a horrific bullpen situation in New York.
Parnell is one of the harder throwers in the system, his 4 seamer sits in the 92-94 range as a starter (and 95-96 as a reliever), and either way, he can touch the upper 90s on occasion. His 2 seamer is a few ticks slower, with nasty down break in on righties. His top offspeed pitch is a mid-upper 80s slider with nasty down break. He also has a changeup which he has not yet mastered, which has pretty much nixed any chances of him starting with the Mets. During Spring Training, he was learning a splitter from JJ Putz, this is definitely a nascent pitch at this point in time.
Parnell will work as a reliever in spring training, and if he does not make the club, as a starter in Buffalo. However, at this point in time, even if he does get his changeup/splitter down, the Mets would be best served by having him in the bullpen as a dependable 7th inning man, whether this season or next. Parnell should crack into a regular role in the bullpen in 2010.
5. Dillon Gee 4/28/86 (22.75) R/R (A+ St. Lucie 8-6, 3.25 era, 21 GS, 127.1 IP, 117 H, 49/46 R/ER, 6 HR, 19/94 BB/K, 0.86 GO/FO, .245 BAA, 1.07 WHIP, AA Binghamton 2-0, 1.33 era, 4 GS, 27 IP, 18 H, 4 ER, HR, 5/20 BB/K, 0.97 GO/FO, .194 BAA, .85 WHIP, PRWL Ponce 4-0, 2.22 era, 10 GS, 48.2 IP, 43 H, 14/12 R/ER, 2 HR, 13/43 BB/K, 1.15 WHIP, .247 BAA)
Total 2008 Stats: 14-6, 2.75 era, 35 GS, 203 IP, 178 H, 67/62 R/ER, 37/157 BB/K, 1.00 GO/FO, .239 BAA, 1.06 WHIP, 1.64 BB/9
The Mets drafted Gee with their 21st round pick, 663rd overall, out of the University of Arlington Texas, where he was 4-8, 4.67 in 111.2 innings. After signing, the Mets assigned him to Brooklyn, where he went 3-1, 2.47 in 62 innings. Gee should be a part of the St. Lucie Mets in 2008.
Gee's drafting was pretty unheralded around the prospect community, and rightfully so, a shortish righty with fringe stuff taken in the 21st round doesn't warrant much attention. Gee performed well in Brooklyn, not as well as fellow shortish righty Dylan Owen, but well enough. Coming into 2008, not much was expected from Gee, we ranked him 11th of 15 SP prospects, and that was after deleting Phil Humber, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey, all of whom ranked ahead of Gee. Well, Gee took 2008 by storm and performed exceptionally well, posting a 3.25 era in St. Lucie over 21 starts, then going to Binghamton and flat out dominating over 4 starts, going 7 innings three times and posting a 1.33 era. Then it was off to Puerto Rico for more domination, this time in 10 starts, over 48 innings and a 2.22 era. To say Gee had a great season would be understating it, he posted 14 wins and a 2.75 era over 203 innings, and as of this writing is still pitching in the Puerto Rico playoffs. Look for Gee to either open in Buffalo, or be there very shortly in 2009.
No one in the system (save Daniel Murphy and maybe Michael Antonini) has enjoyed a more meteroic rise through the farm system then Dillon Gee. He began the season outside our top 15, and ended it on the cusp of breaking into the top 10. He accomplished this by performing well at St. Lucie, and then tearing apart the AA level, first in Binghamton, and then Ponce in the Puerto Rican Winter League.
Gee features 5 pitches, a 2 and 4 seam fastball, with his 4 seamer reaching into the mid 90s, sitting comfortably in the low 90s. His 2 seamer has good down action, sitting between 89-91. He relies most heavily on his changeup when it comes to offspeed offerings. He added a curveball to his repertoire this season, turning it into the more effective of his 2 breaking pitches. He throws the pitch 76-80. Finally, he also has a slider he relies on a good amount, it's harder then his curve, with 12-6 break on it.
Gee has impeccable control, as evidenced by his collective walk total of 37 in 203 innings, a miniscule walk rate of 1.64 per 9 innings. Due to the low walk totals, Gee pitches deep into games, averaging a shade under 7 innings per start in Binghamton, and 6 ip/gs in St. Lucie. There is a very slight possibility he opens in Buffalo, but we'll be conservative and say he opens the season in Binghamton with a quick promotion (on or before May 15th). Depending on need, Gee could end up in New York during September, but a better guess would be a 2010 debut.
6. Robert Carson 1/23/89 (20) L/L (R GCL 1-0, 1.57 era, 5 GS, 23 IP, 11 H, 5/4 R/ER, 6/25 BB/K, 5.29 GO/FO, .138 BAA, .74 WHIP, R Kingsport 2-3, 1.76 era, 6 GS, 30.2 IP, 29 H, 12/6 R/ER, HR, 18/21 BB/K, 2.94 GO/FO, .274 BAA, 1.53 WHIP)
Total 2008 Stats: 3-3, 1.68 era, 11 GS, 53.2 IP, 40 H, 17/10 R/ER, HR, 24/46 BB/K, 3.65 GO/FO, .215 BAA, 1.19 WHIP
Carson was drafted in the 14th round, 453rd overall, out of Hattiesburg HS, and after signing, was sent to the GCL where he pitched sporadically, getting into 4 games totalling 9 innings. Here is a predraft 2007 scouting report on Carson:
Carson features 4 pitches, a fastball, changeup, cutter and curveball. His fastball sits 90-92, and has topped out at 94. His changeup sits around 75-80, while his curveball is low to mid 70s. He feels his curveball needs more bite to it, and he is also working on developing a fifth pitch, a slider.
And here is an inseason 2008 scouting report:
The notable differences have been the improvements in his slider and changeup. Though he entered the organization with a capable off-speed pitch, the effectiveness of both pitches this year has led to his success. Specificially, he fell back on his changeup when he struggled to locate his low to mid 90's fastball. Slider now sweeps away from left handed batters and in under the hands of right-handers. Changeup uses to get his release point back so he can control his fastball better.
Robert Carson is a big lefty who features 3 pitches, a fastball, slider, and changeup. According to some scouting reports, he also has a curveball and cutter. Carson added 2-3 MPH on his fastball this past season, it now sits in the low to mid 90s, and he can dial it up into the 96-98 range rarely. With further refinement, this pitch very well could become a true plus pitch. He also features a mid 80s slider which he uses to generate groundballs (3.77 GO/FO this season, 6.00 in GCL, 2.94 in Kingsport). His changeup is his third best pitch, sitting in the 77-80 MPH range.
Carson is an advanced pitcher for his age, while he can generate a high number of Ks (46 in 53.2 innings), he prefers to dispose of hitters quickly via groundball. While he did walk an alarming amount in Kingsport (18 in 30.2 innings), he has not shown a history of wildness (11 walks in 32 GCL innings over 2 seasons), so no one should be very alarmed. With the tools and makeup Carson possesses, there isn't much question he can, at the very least, be a dependable back end of the rotation starter, but if he were to take the next step, Carson could settle in as a 2 starter.
Carson should open 2009 in Savannah, and could see a late season promotion to St. Lucie. A level per year gets him to the majors on opening day 2013.
7. Jenry Mejia 10/11/89 (19.29) R/R (R GCL 2-0, 0.60 era, 3 GS, 15 IP, 9 H, ER, 3/15 BB/K, 4.60 GO/FO, .164 BAA, .80 WHIP, A- Brooklyn 3-2, 3.49 era, 11 GS, 56.2 IP, 42 H, 22 ER, 4 HR, 23/52 BB/K, 2.47 GO/FO, .209 BAA, 1.15 WHIP)
Total 2008 Stats: 5-2, 2.89 era, 14 GS, CGSO, 71.2 IP, 51 H, 4 HR, 26/67 BB/K, 2.76 GO/FO, .199 BAA, 1.07 WHIP
Mejia was signed by the Mets during the summer of 2006 for just $16,500, and he made his debut in the DSL in 2007, going 2-3 with a 2.47 era in 14 G, 7 GS, over 43.2 innings.
Mejia has one of the most dominant fastballs in the system, it sits in the 93-96 range, and he can dial it up to 97 and 98 on occasion. It has a good down break on it, making it one of the toughest pitches in the system to hit. Mejia compliments his deadly fastball with an equally deadly changeup which sits in the 76-79 range, some people (including me) have mistaken this pitch for a slider due to it's down break and action. He finishes off his arsenal with a developing curveball in the low 70s.
Mejia is definitely a strikeout pitcher (67 Ks in 71.2 innings in 2008), who aggresively uses his stuff to go right after hitters. He also generates a high number of ground balls (2.76 GO/FO ratio in 2008, 1.93 in 2007). Right now, Mejia profiles best as a 2/3 starter, but with continued improvement, he could become a frontline pitching prospect. At absolute worst, he has the stuff to be a big league closer, but the Mets will give him every chance at remaining in the rotation. Mejia should open 2009 in St. Lucie (even if I think he should begin in Savannah, age is certainly on his side), and ascending a level per year, plus adding a half season to be conservative puts his MLB debut in mid 2012.
8. Kyle Allen 2/12/90 (19) R/R (R GCL 1-1, 2.12 era, 11 G, 5 GS, 34 IP, 24 H, 13/8 R/ER, HR, 10/45 BB/K, 1.00 WHIP)
Allen was drafted by the Mets in the 24th round, 734th overall, out of the Pendelton HS. He made his debut in the GCL, flashing an average fastball and above average changeup.
Allen was a steal for the Mets in the 24th round, his talent far surpasses his draft position. Allen throws 3 pitches, a fastball, changeup, and slider. Right now, his fastball is in the low 90s, but it should gain a few ticks as he fills out. His best secondary pitch is definitely his changeup, which sometimes is so good, it surpasses his fastball as his best overall pitch. He throws this pitch in the upper 70s with very good sharp down break. His third pitch is a slider which has a shallow down break, not really a good pitch for the upper levels of the farm system.
Allen is very advanced for someone of his age, he has a very smooth repeatable delievery which he uses to great success. He does not boast the raw stuff of a Brad Holt or Jenrry Mejia, but he does right after hitters with what he does have, rather then nibbling on the corners. As of right now, he projects to be a solid 3rd/4th starter, but further gains in velocity/improvement of his slider would push that projection higher. Allen should start 2009 in Savannah, and then ascend a level per season to make his debut in 2013.
9. Michael Antonini 8/6/85 (23.5) R/L (A Savannah 4-4, 2.71 era, 13 GS, 73 IP, 63 H, 29/22 R/ER, 2 HR, 16/61 BB/K, 1.05 GO/FO, .227 BAA, 1.08 WHIP, A+ St. Lucie 4-0, 1.84 era, 7 GS, CG, 44 IP, 34 H, 10/9 R/ER, 3 HR, 7/33 BB/K, 1.18 GO/FO, .211 BAA, .93 WHIP, AA Binghamton 1-3, 3.74 era, 8 GS, 45.2 IP, 43 H, 19 ER, 10 HR, 16/32 BB/K, 0.72 GO/FO, .247 BAA, 1.29 WHIP, PRWL Ponce 2-0, 3.45 era, 9/8 G/GS, 47 IP, 42 H, 18 ER, 4 HR, 13/29 BB/K, 1.17 WHIP, .243 BAA, 0.73 GO/FO)
Total 2008 Stats: Total 2008 Stats: 11-7, 2.92 era, 37/36 G/GS, 209.2 IP, 182 H, 76/68 R/ER, 52/155 BB/K, .934 GO/FO, .232 BAA, 1.12 WHIP
If Dillon Gee was unheralded after being drafted, Antonini wasn't even on the radar. An 18th round pick out of Georgia College & State University, he posted a composite 1.96 era between Kingsport (3.71 in 17 innings) and Brooklyn (0.46 in 19.2 innings), again, nothing remarkeble at all. And then, much like Gee, 2008 came around and people began to take notice. First Antonini posted a 2.71 era in 73 innings for Savannah, again, it was largely ignored. However, after rocketting up through St. Lucie (1.84 in 44 innings over 7 starts), people began noticing Antonini. After also pitching well in Binghamton (3.74 in 45.2 innings), Antonini also concluded his season in Puerto Rico, where he again pitched very well, with a 3.45 era in 47 innings. Here is a predraft 2007 scouting report on a lefty:
Antonini features 5 pitches. A two and four seam fastball, slider, change and curve. He feels his slider is his most dominating breaking pitch. He likes to throw his changeup, but it needs work. His fastball sits between 88 and 92, while his slider is 78-81, and his change is 78-80.
This is a scouting report from Antonini's college coach, Chris Calciano, immediately after the 2007 draft.
Antonini is a winner first and foremost!! Tough kid, very ballsy. Velocity is 87-91, fastball has some life. Cutter is a solid secondary pitch for strikeouts and is 79-81. Has an average curveball which he typically just uses as a first pitch get me over. Has a feel for the change with decent run and sink. Solid strike thrower. Slightly above average pickoff move. Average athleticism and fields his position very well.
Since entering the system, Antonini's tightened up his fastball, it now sits in the low 90s, and his changeup has become his best secondary offering. He throws it in the mid 70s and gets good down break on it, the changeup increased in effectiveness once Antonini added 2-3 MPH on his fastball. He also features a slider/cutter as a third pitch, which needs some work.
Antonini is a flyball pitcher, with a 0.934 GO/FO ratio in 2008, along with a solid 155 Ks in 209.2 innings, a K rate of 6.65 per 9. He is a quick worker, but sometimes loses his arm slot when throwing his slider. He improved his slide step and ability to pitch from the stretch last season, but he still needs to work on controlling the running game.
Antonini projects best as a 4-5 starter or a long man/LOOGY out of the pen, and with his impressive rocket ascent through the system in 2008, the Mets will keep him in the rotation for now. He should be on track to open back in Binghamton for 2009, with a very good possibility of seeing significant time in Buffalo. There exists a possibility of Antonini auditioning in September as a LOOGY, but we'll say he makes his MLB debut in mid 2010.
10. Jeurys Familia 10/10/89 (19.29) R/R (R GCL 2-2, 2.79 era, 11 GS, 51.2 IP, 46 H, 20/16 R/ER, 2 HR, 13/38 BB/K, 1.14 WHIP)
The Mets signed Familia as an international free agent in July 2007 out of the Dominican Republic. He debuted in the GCL in 2008.
Familia throws 4 pitches, a 2 and 4 seam fastball, slider, and changeup. His 2 seamer sits in the 88-92 range, the same as his 4 seamer, however, he can dial his 4 seamer into the mid 90s when he needs to. His 2 seamer has good horizontal action through the zone, while his 4 seamer acts like a cutter. His best secondary pitch is a low 80s slider he uses to generate strikeouts. He tops off his arsenal with a still developing changeup which sits in the mid 70s.
Even at a young age, Familia doesn't try and just blow hitters away, he uses his entire arsenal of pitches to put away hitters, though he relies on his 2 seamer and slider as out pitches. Familia is still young enough where these exists a ton of projection with regards to his stuff, which almost certainly will gain refinement, if not velocity. It wouldn't be shocking to see him make the leap from the GCL to Savannah in 2009, and then spend an additional 3.5 seasons in the minors before making his debut sometime in mid 2013.
11. Phillips Orta 5/9/86 (22.75) R/R (R Kingsport 4-4, 2.05 era, 14 G, 3 GS, 44 IP, 35 H, 14/10 R/ER, 2 HR, 21/31 BB/K, 1.85 GO/FO, .222 BAA, 1.27 WHIP, A Savannah 0-1, 2.70 era, 2 GS, 10 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 5/5 BB/K, 0.71 GO/FO, .231 BAA, 1.40 WHIP)
Total 2008 Stats: 4-5, 2.17 era, 16 G, 5 GS, 54 IP, 44 H, 17/13 R/ER, 2 HR, 26/36 BB/K, 1.52 GO/FO, .223 BAA, 1.30 WHIP
The Mets selected Orta in the 10th round of the 2006 draft out of Western Nebraska Community College. After signing in 2007 as a draft and follow, the Mets sent him to the Venezuelan Summer League, where he appeared in 4 games, pitching 14 innings to a 1.29 era. The Mets brought him stateside and sent him to Kingsport next, where he spent the bulk of the season, starting 11 games (53 IP), pitching to a 2-2, 4.58 line. He spent one relief outing in Savannah, getting bombed due to command issues.
Orta was held back in extended ST this year, starting his year in Kingsport where he excelled, posting a 2.05 era over 44 innings. He should begin the 2009 season in Savannah's rotation, with the possibility of a quick promotion.
Orta has a very good fastball in the mid 90s which he uses to his advantage. He is adept at changing grips on it, adding a little velocity up the zone, throwing a cutter and/or sinker. His command of the pitch needs improvement, but sheer velocity was enough to get him through rookie ball. His best offspeed offering is a curveball in the 78-82 range with tight late break. He rounds out his arsenal with a developing changeup in the low 80s, but he doesn't have good command over this pitch yet.
Orta induces a high number of ground ball outs with his power fastball/curveball combination (1.85 GO/FO in Kingsport). Despite boasting a very good fastball, Orta sometimes pitches backwards, using his curveball to setup his fastball, instead of the reverse. Orta should open 2009 in Savannah, but time is against him as he will be 23 in early May. With the abundance of high upside pitching prospects ahead of and behind him (all of whom are at least 2 years younger), Orta needs to engineer a Michael Antonini esque rocket ship ride through the system, lest he find himself in a bullpen role. A move to the bullpen would mean that Orta would be ready for the majors in late 2010 or early 2011, if he were to stay in the rotation (which would mean he ends the season in Binghamton), he would be ready in mid 2011.
