Prospect Focus: Lucas Duda

You asked, and admittedly, I was curious. So here it is:
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Lucas Duda is a 6'4/225 first baseman the Mets drafted in the 7th round (243rd overall) of the 2007 draft.

He got sporadic playing time in his freshman year at USC, only 77 ABs in 34 games. He hit just .208 with a .322 OBP and .299 SLG. We can throw those numbers out the window due to the lack of consistent PT.

In 2006, his sophomore season, he played everyday, getting 191 ABs in 56 games. He hit much better, .298/.391/.398, but with a decided lack of power. He only showed a 1/63.66 HR/AB rate, and had just 12 XBH in 191 ABs. He did, however, show a very good eye at the plate, with a 0.82352 BB/K ratio (walks per strikeout).

In 2007, Duda again played everyday, and hit .280/.378/.468, showing a burgeoning power stroke, increasing his HR/AB ratio to 1/26.57. He had 18 XBH in 186 ABs, with the increase in HR (4) and triples (2) driving his slugging higher. While in college, he had a 0.83333 BB/K ratio, virtually staying the same as in 2006.

In Brooklyn after getting drafted, Duda hit .299/.398/.462, vastly improving the number of doubles he hit. Duda hits lefty, and Keyspan park is death on left handed sluggers, so much so, that Mike Carp was sent to the GCL in 04, then Hagerstown in 05, skipping the deathly confines of Keyspan.

Duda, however, thrived at Keyspan. He hit 20 doubles, 3 triples and 4 homers in 234 ABs. While his BB/K ratio did decline slightly from his USC 07 season, from 0.83333 to 0.75, it was more then offset by the 19 point increase in average. If you take out the 3 IBBs he got, his BB/K ratio drops to 0.68888, which is still very solid.

Duda's Brooklyn splits are very interesting, as far as lefty/righty goes. Versus lefties, Duda hit .342/.405/.605/1.010 with 7 2b and 1 HR in 38 ABs. He struck out 11 times and walked 3 times. Versus righties he batted .296/.401/.436/.837 with 12 2b, 2 3b and 3 HR in 179 ABs. He struck out 27 times and walked 28 times. We'll have to see if this trend continues at the higher levels, but so far, it is extremely promising. His K rate vs LHP was very high at .289, but the sample size (38 ABs) is too low to draw many conclusions. His K rate vs RHP was .151.

Duda's our 3rd best first base prospect, and 4th best corner infield prospect (3rd base is kind of filled for the foreseeable future). I would probably rank Duda somewhere between 9 and 15 on our prospect lists.

THE FUTURE: Duda should be opening his first full season in St. Lucie, manning first base for a completely new look Mets infield. Duda, at least so far in his pro career, has shown the ability to handle lefthanders. If this trend continues in St. Lucie, and Carp/Murphy scuffle in Binghamton vs LHP, Duda might vault all the way to the top spot in corner infielders. But that's a long long way off. For now, Duda fans should focus on his developing power, and his ability to control the strike zone.