(AAA New Orleans .286/.363/.414, 36 games, 40 for 140, 24 runs, 8 2b, 2 3b, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 15/23 BB/K, 17/21 SBs, MLB New York Mets .232/.288/.304, 58 games, 29 for 125, 14 runs, 3 2b, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 8/27 BB/K ratio, 12/15 SBs)
What do you think should happen? If you say trade him, where, and for what? If you say keep him, why? Answer in the comments section. Lets get a discussion going!
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It Depends, if Gomez can bring back a Harden I might trade him. I think Gomez is going to be around a .285 hitter with 15-20 homerun power and steal 70 bases..
ReplyDeleteBut there is a good chance he will be a bust, and the Mets really need another pitcher
Gomez has a higher bust potential then say, a Milledge, but with that comes a much higher ceiling. I wouldn't trade Gomez for Harden, Harden's been injury prone throughout his career.
ReplyDeleteIf you found me a young, uninjured, under our control for 2-3 years, ace/soon to be ace, I'd be willing to move Gomez. Aside from that, keep Gomez.
His ceiling is really unknown, much as Reyes' is.
I have Gomez at the top of the list of Mets prospects, ahead of Milledge and Fernando Martinez. I agree that he has a higher bust potential then say Milledge, but the spark is there. Milledge I see as a good, but not great player. Gomez truly could be a star. I was very impressed with his defense and arm and, with that speed, he can put up great numbers if he even approaches his potential as a hitter. Obviously, in the unlikely event that a Santana deal can be done at a reasonable cost (no involvement of Reyes and a deal that leaves something of value in the farm system), you should move Gomez. But if you're not getting a true ace, he should go nowhere.
ReplyDeleteI think "The Man" is giving you Gomez' floor. That's the WORST he'll develop into.
ReplyDelete.285 hitter with 15-20 homerun power and steal 70 bases..
As I've said a few times on here, and to my friends on AIM, there really is no measurable ceiling for Carlos Gomez, much like Jose Reyes. Could he bust out? Yeah, he could. But his upside is one that I'd keep him and take that chance.
Are you serious? thats the floor? The worst he can turn into? thats idiotic.. Thats basically Jose Reyes right there minus some average gaining a lot more power..
ReplyDeleteseriously thats a great season if he did what you call "the worst"
Have to agree with the man. That is not his floor... Those numbers a comparable to Carl Crawford. If that is truly his floor you don't trade him for anything. I think that is a good prediction of what he might become, but the floor? Seriously?
ReplyDeleteHe's going to be good.
ReplyDeleteMaybe I overstated his floor.
There's still a good chance he busts out completely. Let me put it this way, if he establishes himself as an everyday player on the major league level, his floor, IMO, is:
.275/.335/.425/.760
35 2b, 13 3b, 12 HR, 67 RBI, 75/90 SBs, 58/95 BB/K
Quite honestly, even if that's all he turned into, I wouldn't trade him. I firmly believe SBs are significantly undervalued in today's baseball, you can count the guys who give you 65+ on one hand.
If Gomez doesnt develop power, he is ALMOST useless as a corner outfielder. You cant be runnin a guy out there in RF who's gonna hit 10-15 hr, unless you have someone like Arod at 2b, and if by then we have some beast at 1b who jacks 35-40 a year, we need some power out of the corner OF. If we stick with Milledge next year, we should be in it with him for the long run, but even he only projects to have 20-25 hr power, maybe topping out at 30. Where is our power gonna come from? Will Reyes turn into a 20+ hr hitter? Will Wright jack 35+ per season? Will Beltran keep his power numbers up?
ReplyDeleteGomez, to me, would be an above average centerfielder if he put up numbers in the median of his ceiling and floor, but as a corner OF'er, 15 hr per season will NOT cut it. If he turns into a 25-30+ hr hitter like his ceiling and body structure suggests, then he will be a stud.
On topic, I don't think we should trade him unless an opportunity for an Ace/#2 type comes along...Ben Sheets, anyone?
Sheets is always hurt, much like Rich Harden.
ReplyDeletePass.
I disagree that he needs 25-30 HRs to be valuable. I agree with Tejesh that stolen bases are underrated by the sabermetric crowd. There is an impact to the game that speed provides that cannot be reflected by stats (forced errors, bad pitch selection, lack of focus from the pitcher, etc.).
ReplyDeleteSaying you need power from a corner outfielder seems simplistic. What position you play should not necessary dictate what type of hitter you should be. Are you really saying Ichiro and Crawford are not valuable to their teams?
Power generally is overrated. Look at the Arizona Diamondbacks. It's not exactly like they had a surplus of homerun hitters. Sure you do need some power hitters in your lineup. However, you should not mistake a power hitter for a home run hitter--you need someone to drive in runs not necessary drive the ball out of the ballpark. To me you need a balanced lineup.
I feel comfortable with the way Gomez fits into the Mets future. I do think you can project 30-35 HRs from Wright, especially as he continues to grow as a hitter. Beltran's homerun output will likely increase in the next few years (usually a five tool player hits more homeruns in the first half of his thirties than he did in his twenties). Provided we continue to have power from firstbase or leftfield we should be fine.
Even if he does not hit for more than 15-20 Hrs, Gomez could still be a great number 6 or 7 hitter in a lineup. With the intangibles he brings, that could still be very valuable.
I agree about Sheets... For a return for a deal involving Gomez you need something special... Santana, Carmona, Sabathia, Homer Bailey, Bedard, Beckett, Billingsly, Matt Cain, Joba Chamberlain, Hughes, Jeff Francis, Halladay, Hamels, Dan Haren, Felix Hernandez, John Lackey, Linecum, Hudson, Oswalt, Peavy, Penny, Verlander, Kelvim Escober, Jared Weaver, Chris Young, Zambrano, or Santana. That is it. Any other deal better involve a package of multiple solid players.
ReplyDeleteYou forgot to mention: He Who Shall Not Be Named ;)
ReplyDeleteBut yeah, I'm probably the second highest person on Gomez outside the Met organization, I really feel he is going to be a special player. Honestly, lets just use the players under contract for us now, for a 2009 projected lineup:
Wright - 30-40 HR
Reyes - 15-20 HR
Milledge - 20-27 HR
Beltran - 33-45 HR
Gomez - 10-20 HR (minimum)
That's 108 HR, not bad. Now figure in Reyes/Gomez for 150 steals, Wright another 30, 35, Beltran 15-20, Milledge 10-15, you have 205 steals. And quite honestly, with some combination of Gomez/Reyes 1-2, all you need is a single to score them from 2nd, and a double to score both.
And if we ever got Teixeira, well, so much the better. Add his 30-35 homers to the lineup, and you have an offensive juggernaut. Without any production from your 2b/c. And if you ever got A-Rod AND Teix...well, lets not get ahead of ourselves.
A-Rod, Tex, Santana...*drools and falls over*
I guess I did have an omission. According to mlbtraderumors.com he's available. I find that highly unlikely. You don't trade 23 year old frontline starter who is under contract for three more years. That would be as stupid as trading a major pitching prospect for a 30 year old #4 starter with elbow problems. It would never happen...
ReplyDeleteI could live until I'm 300 years old, amass all the knowledge in the universe, and I'd still never understand the logic/rational behind that trade.
ReplyDeleteAnyway - back to Gomez.
He is going to be a star, and very quickly. I mean, it took him 30 ABs to figure out MLB pitching, then he put up a .300/.350/.400 line in June. That's pretty damn impressive.
That's his line when factor out the first 30 ABs? That is impressive. He was certainly raw, but I really liked that he was adjusting as the season progressed. With Milledge there seemed to be a game plan a pitcher could follow to get him out. Gomez doesn't seem to fall into any pattern. What worked the first time wont work the second time.
ReplyDeleteNo, that's just June. He got hurt 4 games into July, then played very sporadically in September.
ReplyDeleteHis overall line this year was around .230/.280/.320
.232/.288/.304 to be exact.
ReplyDeleteTaking out his first 29 ABs, you get a line of .250/.309/.323/.632 with an adj SLG ((SB - 1.92*CS) added to the SLG formula) of .676
Really not much different from Reyes' 2005 season.
His June, though, is what has me super high on him. .299/.351/.403, 20 for 67, 7 runs, 2b, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 5/15 BB/K, 7/9 SBs. After a dreadful .172/.219/.241 29 AB introduction to the majors, no less!
I was at the game he broke his hand in Colorado... Has not been the same since. I imagine its just a timing issue. Any signs of life in winter ball?
ReplyDeleteNegatory.
ReplyDeleteBased upon the posts on this blog it seems like he is not getting much playing time.
ReplyDeleteHe's not. He didn't play yesterday. Or the day before.
ReplyDeleteSitting for 3 of every 4 days isn't going to produce any results that are going to look good. I hope people realize that when looking at his numbers for Escogido this winter.
You have to take winter league stuff with a grain of salt. I'd almost rather him under perform. If he raked then maybe more teams would ask about him in trade talks. I would be shocked if the Mets don't trade one of the big three outfield prospects this winter. I'm hoping its not Gomez.
ReplyDelete