Mets Mull Prospects for Pitching

When Carlos Delgado signed with Florida as a free agent two years ago, he said he chose the Marlins over the Mets because he felt they had a better chance of getting to the World Series. Delgado is a top-notch run producer, but a top-notch prognosticator he is not.

But no harm. A year later Delgado wound up with the Mets, and he helped them get close to the World Series. Now they are ready to take the next step.

In the two winters Omar Minaya has been their general manager, the Mets have done well, adding, among other players, Carlos Beltrán, Pedro Martínez, Delgado, Paul Lo Duca and Billy Wagner. The Mets, in fact, have spoiled their fans, who have come to expect sparkling additions.

Who could those additions be this off-season?

Begin with the starting pitching because the Mets’ No. 1 priority is a No. 1 starter. Tom Glavine will very likely return for a fifth season with the Mets, and Orlando Hernández may be back, too. Manager Willie Randolph also has a group of younger pitchers to consider for the rotation: Oliver Pérez, John Maine, Brian Bannister, Mike Pelfrey and Dave Williams.

But with Martínez unavailable for the first half of next season after shoulder surgery, the Mets need a No. 1. They could sign a free agent (Barry Zito?), they could win the Japanese lottery (Daisuke Matsuzaka) or they could make a trade (Dontrelle Willis?).

Minaya wouldn’t snub a top-flight free agent, but based on previous comments he has made, he likes the idea of trading for a player over signing him. Willis, then, would most likely be his No. 1 choice. He tried to persuade the Marlins to trade him last season, and they resisted. He will certainly try again.

Jake Peavy(pictured at top) of San Diego could be another target. Peavy, a 25-year-old right-hander, had a losing record (11-14) with a division champion, but he can be a dominant pitcher. In his last 10 starts, he had a 6-3 record and a 2.86 earned run average, which lowered his season E.R.A. to 4.09 from 4.69.

•When Minaya talked to the Marlins about Willis last summer, he was not necessarily prepared to trade some of the Mets’ young prospects. His position, however, has most likely changed.

Lastings Milledge, for example, lost some of his luster in his visits to New York during the season, and the Mets would very likely be willing to include him in a package for Willis. They would also likely be willing to trade Philip Humber, the third player selected in the 2004 June draft, or another pitcher, like Bannister or Pelfrey.

Timing could be a problem in their effort to get Willis. The Mets will learn in the next day or two if they are the winning bidder for Matsuzaka, and if so, they would then have 30 days to sign him. Minaya might be able to determine in that time if he had a chance to trade for Willis, but maybe not.

If the Mets found they could get Willis, would they abandon their attempt to sign Matsuzaka? If they did that, would they violate the rules or the spirit of the posting system? No, they would not. Nothing in the posting rules provides for penalties if a club, for any reason, fails to sign the player. The club would simply lose its right to negotiate with him.

But what if the Mets were to sign Matsuzaka first? Would Minaya still try to get Willis? Given that Willis can’t be a free agent for three more years, why not?

Failing to get Matsuzaka or Willis, the Mets would most likely pursue Zito, although his price tag would very likely be higher than his status warranted. By most assessments, Zito is a No. 2 or No. 3 starter, but in this market, with so many teams desperate for pitching, he is viewed as a No. 1. In addition, his agent, Scott Boras, will market him as a No. 1 and have a book full of statistics to show to skeptical clubs.

The Mets are not guaranteed any pitcher through any means, but Minaya has established a good track record for getting what he goes after, Delgado excepted, and would have to be given a strong chance to get one of the pitchers he wants.

•Aside from pitching, the Mets need to address second base and left field. With the 50-game suspension for Guillermo Mota, a free agent the Mets had planned to re-sign, they will have to look at their bullpen, too. But they have Duaner Sánchez coming back from his shoulder injury, they still have Aaron Heilman and they could re-sign Chad Bradford.

For second base, the Mets could re-sign José Valentín, although they could not expect him to duplicate the performance he gave the Mets for much of last season. They will also consider the free agents Julio Lugo, Ron Belliard and Mark Loretta.

The best hitters available for left field in the free-agent market are Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Lee. Each will cost more than the Mets will want to spend if they sign an expensive pitcher. They signed Beltrán and Martínez two years ago, and last year they signed Wagner and took on Delgado’s expensive contract. But they won’t commit to those expenditures every year.

With their offense, though, they don’t need to spend lavishly to get a hitter of the magnitude of Soriano and Lee. They started last season with a payroll a few dollars under $100 million and wound up at $111 million. They will probably start around the same level and save some money in order to acquire a player at the July 31 trading deadline.