Showing posts with label Mike Pelfrey. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mike Pelfrey. Show all posts

Thursday, January 04, 2007

Projectprospect.com's top 100 Prospect List...

10. Mike Pelfrey (Will figure things out in big leagues and surface as an ace before long)
23. Fernando Martinez (253/.305/.379 in AFL; still a few years away, could top this list by then.)
44. Phillip Humber (Other Owl who is back on track, expect Humber to crack the Mets rotation by July)
72. Carlos Gomez (Career: .279/.337/.400; best season came in 2006: .281/.350/.423)
87. Deolis Guerra (Very impressive for his age (17); career: 89 IP 69:43 K to BB 1.25 WHIP)

------------------------

MPH's take: I really doubt Pelfrey and Humber are as far apart as this list indicates. Anyone who knows me knows I rank Humber ahead of Pelfrey on any list I do. As for Nando, he's special, that's for sure. He outperformed Jose Tabata, his Yankee counterpart, but both are (barring injury) destined for stardom in the majors.

I am very surprised by the low rankings for Carlos Gomez and Deolis Guerra. And obviously, these guys don't know much about either, if all they give us in their discussion is career stats.

Carlos Gomez is a potential 5 tool talent, he's got blazing speed, great defensive skills, and can hit for average pretty well. He needs to work on plate discipline and power hitting, which should come in time.

Let's remember that you don't need to hit 20 homers to be an impact major league player. Oh, and not every prospect has to be an impact player. If someone came up and consistently hit .280 with 8 homers and 46 RBI and solid defense, that's certainly not high impact, but it is a very solid player.

Deolis Guerra is 17, as they mentioned, and should add a good bit to his 88-92 mph fastball, making it a plus plus offering (velocity/movement). While right now he's compared to Yusmiero Petit, we feel that in the future, he'll be compared more to a King Felix type. Not to mention Guerra is actually a half season ahead of Felix Hernandez in terms of player development. Felix didn't see high A until his second professional season, Deolis saw high A in his rookie campaign. Look out.

Monday, December 25, 2006

Minorleaguebaseball.com's METS Prospect Report + Comments and analysis from me

NEW YORK METS

Organization MVP: Lastings Milledge. Barring an injury in New York, the Mets' top prospect is probably stuck at Triple-A, where he should reward the team's decision-makers for electing to hold on to him during a whirlwind of trade talks over the offseason. As well as he's handled Major League pitching during Spring Training, you've gotta believe Lastings can hang in the IL.

This was dead on in a number of ways. First, it was an injury that brought Milledge up to New York. Second, he did hang in the IL, batting .277 with 32 extra-base hits in 84 games. He did hit better early on (.357 in April), with the travels to and from New York perhaps taking their toll. That being said, he didn't actually win the Sterling Minor League Organizational Player of the Year Award, an honor that went to first baseman Mike Carp.

Cy on the farm: Mike Pelfrey. He was widely considered the best pitching talent in last year's draft, and judging by his Spring Training performance, the long layoff didn't negatively affect him. Brian Bannister will be pitching at a much higher level -- possibly even in the Majors -- and other promising hurlers like Jon Niese and Bobby Parnell could be pitching at the same level as Pelfrey, just at a younger age.

Well, Pelfrey did have a successful run in the Minors. He went 7-3 with a 2.43 ERA across three levels, striking out 109 and walking only 33 in 96 1/3 innings. Opponents hit just .232 against him and he made it to the big leagues for four starts in his first pro season. But it was Mike Devaney who took home Pitcher of the Year honors after leading the organization in ERA and wins and finishing second to Niese in strikeouts. There's not likely to be too much debate, though, over which Mike is more highly touted at this point.

High Tide: With players like Milledge, Brian Bannister, Jeff Keppinger, Brett Harper and Chase Lambin possibly spending time in Norfolk this season, the Tides could have quite a talented young nucleus in the International League. They made the playoffs last year while relying largely on older, veteran players like Brian Daubach, Ron Calloway, Benji Gil, Rodney Nye, Eric Junge and Jae Seo. This year, a return trip wouldn't be a surprise, although potentially with a much younger cast.

Oops. Norfolk finished 57-84, 22 games behind division winner Charlotte. Some of the players, like Milledge and Bannister (before getting hurt), were lost to the big leagues. Keppinger hit well before being traded. Lambin batted just .222 before being demoted to Double-A. Harper missed most of the year and the time he did play also was also in Double-A.

Latin love: Conspiracy theorists tried to accuse GM Omar Minaya of being a racist because of his proclivity for signing Latin players. But Mets fans won't be complaining if youngsters like Deolis Guerra, Fernando Martinez and/or Junior Contreras pan out as they're expected to. Martinez, from the Dominican Republic, and Guerra, a Venezuelan, are 16 and 17 respectively and signed for a combined $2.1 million last year (with Martinez getting $1.4 million). Contreras is a hulking 6-foot-6, 250-pound first baseman, who was second in the Gulf Coast League with eight home runs last year. The 20-year-old Dominican also drew 26 walks and was fourth in the league with a .401 on-base percentage and fifth in slugging (.500).

Muy bien. Guerra had a 2.20 ERA in 17 starts in his first taste of full-season ball (at age 17), yielding just 59 hits over 81 2/3 innings, before getting a three-start taste (including one playoff start) of the Florida State League. Martinez was the youngest player ever to play in the Arizona Fall League after he hit a combined .279 across two levels during the season. The teenage sensation is on the Top 50 prospects list and hit .333 in 45 games with Hagerstown before stumbling a little with an aggressive promotion to St. Lucie. Contreras made more modest gains, hitting .284, though without much power, mostly with Kingsport in the Appalachian League.

End result: Technically, we hit .250 on this one. But if you call the Pelfrey call a push, we improve to .333.

------------------------

Lastings Milledge had a good rookie season in the majors, and there is no reason to question his talent, or ability. His personality, perhaps, but not the talent. He displayed all 5 tools in his 166 AB introduction to the majors. He will likely begin the year in New Orleans, with Shawn Green (why?) in right field.

Mike Carp? He's legit. In a couple of the articles we posted late last month here, you read that Carp reinvented his stroke, spraying the ball around rather then being a dead pull (Jacobs?) hitter. We feel that this puts Carp into the David Wright mold of hitting. Carp's got natural power, enough to where he can and will hit 25-30 homers, just like Wright, along with a .300+ average. Look for big things out of Carp in Binghamton

Mike Pelfrey didn't do anything to harm his prospect status in his 4 MLB starts, but Phillip Humber, in my opinion, did a whole lot to boost his prospect status. Naysayers point out Humber is 23, which is true. However, Pelfrey's 22 and alot less refined. Humber has a 94 mph fastball which touches 96, with a hammer curve and a power change. Pelfrey just has a 96-98 mph fastball, and then several weak secondary pitches. Both pitchers will begin the season in New Orleans, most likely, headlining what looks to be a very very strong team.

The Latin Connection? Strong and vibrant. Fernando Martinez and Deolis Guerra are, without question, going to be stars in the majors, someday. FMart showed good discipline at Hagerstown, 15/36 BB/K ratio in 192 at-bats. Then, as a 17 year old (HS senior?) in high A St. Lucie, he hit 5 homers in 119 ABs, doubling his season total to 10. Guerra just tore the Sally League apart, and he's also just 17. Look for his fastball to pick up between 4-7 mph, becoming a plus/plus offering. He is also very refined, with a very good changeup.

All in all, I feel that the Mets farm system doesn't get the props it deserves. But that'll change, really soon. We have 7 very legit prospects in the farm, and good depth, too.

------------------------

PS: Sorry about not updating this blog in a while, but the winter months are extraordinairly quiet with regards to prospects.

PPS: Carlos Gomez is 5 for his last 8, raising his average to .242. His stats: 11 runs scored, 0 2b, 3b, hr, 5 RBI, 2 BBs/26 Ks (yes, his plate discipline ain't good, but he wasn't playing regularly for a long time, he is now), 12 SBs (considering he's gotten on base a whopping 24 times, that's pretty good, the 12 steals).

-------------------------
Have a nice and safe Christmas, everyone.

Tuesday, November 28, 2006

Mets boast top talent despite recent trades -- Humber, Pelfrey highlight young pitching prospects




Considering how much talent was traded away during the offseason a year ago, the Mets farm system didn't have a half-bad year.

Don't use the .477 overall winning percentage as a guide. On the flip side, the St. Lucie Mets' title, while a nice addition to Gary Carter's impressive Minor League managing resume, shouldn't be seen as a tremendous omen either.

To get Carlos Delgado and Paul LoDuca, the Mets had to give up a fair amount of depth. They've also given up a fair share of draft picks (last year for signing Billy Wagner, the year before for Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran), so they haven't been able to restock as well as other teams.

That being said, they did get a number of contributions to the big-league club courtesy of the farm in 2006. Lastings Milledge made his highly anticipated debut, and while he had some issues in the clubhouse and on the field, his skill is evident, even if he's traded to help make that last step to the World Series in 2007. Most of the help, though, came on the mound. Mike Pelfrey rose quickly, making four starts after signing late, Philip Humber quickly recovered from Tommy John surgery to make his big-league debut, and Brian Bannister looked impressive before injuries cut short most of his season.

That trio alone should have Mets fans pleased about the future. Throw in some interesting young outfielders and perhaps more pitching on the way, and the Mets should be able to retool quickly -- whether it be by promoting homegrown talent or using said talent to actively partipate in offseason trade talks.

Five Faves

At the start of the season, MLB.com identified five prospects to keep an eye on. Here's how they fared in 2006:

Lastings Milledge, OF
On the one hand, 2006 was a big success for the Mets' top position prospect. After impressing in Spring Training, he headed to Triple-A for the first time and started out like gangbusters. Milledge hit .357 in April with seven steals and it seemed a matter of when, not if, he'd get his first callup. That moment came on May 30 and the 21-year-old stuck around enough to pick up 166 big-league at-bats and even made some positive contributions (four homers, 22 RBIs in 56 games). On the other hand, Milledge may have gone from untouchable to trade bait after rankling the feathers of more than one veteran for what was perceived to be an unrookie-like attitude. His future with the Mets this offseason is very much up in the air, especially since the 2007 outfield once again looks crowded.

Philip Humber, RHP
Humber made his first game appearance on June 22 after coming back from Tommy John surgery, but he made up for lost time in a hurry. After one outing in the Gulf Coast League, he made seven starts in the Florida State League (3-1, 2.37 ERA) with uncharacteristic command for someone just coming back from surgery. He had similar results in six Double-A starts -- 2.88 ERA, .195 batting average against -- which resulted in a surprising September callup. He made his big-league debut on Sept. 24 and finished the season with two scoreless innings of relief work. He headed to the Arizona Fall League to get some more work in, but was shut down after just two innings as a precaution because of shoulder tendinitis. If he's healthy next year, he should contribute in New York at some point.

Carlos Gomez, OF
The Mets seem to be growing young outfielders with Milledge hitting the big leagues and teen sensation Fernando Martinez making it to the Florida State League. Gomez sits between them in his development. He leapt from the South Atlantic League up to Double-A and played well in the Eastern League at just 20 years old. He hit .281 and led the organization with 41 steals (tied for second in the EL). Clearly the Mets have high hopes for him as they added him to the 40-man roster this offseason. Some time in Triple-A wouldn't hurt, but he could be pushing for a callup at some point in 2007 should the need arise.

2006 Organizational Record
LEVEL
AAA
AA
A (Adv)
A
SS
R
LEAGUE
IL
EL
FSL
SAL
NYP
APP
GCL
TEAM
Norfolk
Binghamton
St. Lucie*
Hagerstown
Brooklyn
Kingsport
Mets

TOTAL:

W
57
70
77
58
41
34
23

360

L
84
70
62
82
33
33
30

394

PCT
.404
.500
.554
.414
.554
.507
.434

.477

* Won League Championship

Anderson Hernandez, 2B
After a breakout 2005 season that saw him hit a combined .315, there were hopes Hernandez might even take over second base chores in New York in 2006. He did break camp with the big club and got in 41 at-bats in April (hitting .146). He went back to Norfolk and stayed there until September thanks to Jose Valentin's renaissance and his own lackluster offensive performance. Hernandez hit just .249 in 102 Triple-A games while playing more at shortstop than second. He did end up on the Mets' League Championship Series roster and could still find a way to be a handy utilityman in the future.

Brian Bannister, RHP
Things started out so well for Bannister, with the right-hander winning the Mets' No. 5 starter spot thanks to a splendid Spring Training. But he ended up appearing in just eight games (six starts), going 2-1 with a 4.26 ERA over 38 innings. He went 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA in five April starts, but was shut down with a hamstring injury. He didn't hit the big leagues again until the end of August (he tried to come back in May, but it was a no-go). He made five starts in Norfolk in August after two in St. Lucie in July to get himself ready to rejoin the Mets. He's making up for lost innings in Mexico this offseason and has pitched reasonably well. He could be in the mix once again in 2007.

2006 Organizational Leaders
Average
Home Runs
RBIs
Stolen Bases
ERA
Wins

Strikeouts
Saves
.341
21
88
41

2.13
12

142
31
Corey Coles
Jesus Flores
Mike Carp
Carlos Gomez

Michael Devaney
Michael Devaney, Evan MacLane
Jonathan Niese
Carlos Muniz
Complete MiLB statistics

Cinderella Story

Mitch Wylie, RHP
Wylie has been through a lot since being drafted back in 1998 by the White Sox, but it looked like he might get the chance to finally break through to the bigs after the Mets took him from the Giants in last year's Rule 5 Draft. But he was at the end of Spring Training and offered back to the Giants, who turned him down. He headed to Norfolk, hit the disabled list early with a sore shoulder, tried to come back, went back on the DL and missed nearly six months with a shoulder strain. He also missed a couple of weeks with a blister problem in late July. When he was on the mound, he pitched pretty well, with a 2.96 ERA and 53 K's in 48 2/3 IP. But he'll be 30 next year, so he'll need a real Cinderella story to make it up in the future.

Breakout Year

This player was pegged as a breakout candidate before the season began. Did he live up to expectations?

Shawn Bowman, 3B
The 21-year-old headed back to St. Lucie with the hopes of building on what had been a good offensive stretch before a back injury -- a broken vertebrae, to be exact -- hijacked his season. He started slowly, hitting just .220 in April, but was hitting .324 with three homers and 11 RBIs in 10 May games before the back stepped in again -- breaking the same vertebrae in the same place for the second straight season -- and ended his season. He didn't need surgery and spent the rest of the year rehabbing with hopes of a 2007 return.

2006 draft recap

1. Kevin Mulvey, RHP
The Mets didn't have a first-round pick due to the signing of Billy Wagner, so Mulvey was their top pick in the second round. The Villanova product moved quickly, finishing the year in Double-A before heading to the Arizona Fall League. He only threw 15 1/3 Minor League innings, but gave up just two earned runs and 11 hits in that span. He got in 15 more innings in Arizona and should be able to pitch in the upper levels of the system for his first full season with a fastball that sits in the low-to-mid 90s.

2. Joe Smith, RHP
After posting a 0.45 ERA and 28 strikeouts (vs. just two walks) in 20 innings for Brooklyn, the Wright State product moved all the way up to Binghamton. There he appeared in 10 more games and scuffled a little more, though he still struck out nearly a batter an inning. The side-armer throws a pretty good fastball and a nasty slider.

3. John Holdzkom, RHP
Holdzkom can throw extremely hard, but he doesn't always know where it's going. That was fairly clear in his pro debut in the Gulf Coast League, where he struck out 23 and walked 20 in 23 1/3 innings. But Major-League ability runs in the family as the 6-foot-7 right-hander's brother, Lincoln, has logged some time in the bigs. Holdzkom will have to prove that some issues as an amateur -- including being academically ineligible for part of his senior year of high school and dropping out of junior college after a problem with a coach -- are things of the past.

4. Stephen Holmes, RHP
Holmes did nothing but win in Rhode Island, setting that university's record for career winning percentage and earning Atlantic 10 Pitcher of the Year and third-team All-American status in his final season. He signed and was assigned to Brooklyn but didn't end up throwing a professional inning this past summer.

5. Scott Schafer, RHP
Schafer, a Texas high-school right-hander, went in the sixth round. He didn't pitch much after signing, but did manage to get his pro debut out of the way, yielding a hit and two walks while striking out three in a two-inning stint for the GCL Mets at the end of June.

2005 draft recap

1. Mike Pelfrey, RHP
It seems the late signing didn't affect his development, did it? After not making his pro debut until Spring Training (and pitching well there), he pitched at three Minor League levels and put up a combined 2.43 ERA while striking out 109 and walking only 33 in 96 1/3 innings. He also made his big-league debut in his first pro season, making four starts for the Mets in July and August. From there, he went to the AFL for some fine-tuning, getting in four innings before being shut down with "general soreness."

2. Hector Pellot, 2B
Taken in the fourth round, Pellot didn't make his pro debut until this year after signing a 2006 contract. The second baseman played 100 games for Hagerstown and struggled in 359 at-bats, hitting just .189 and striking out 95 times while finishing the year on the DL with a sprained knee. On the plus side, he did draw 41 walks and he's only 19 years old. He headed home to Puerto Rico for some winter ball work and might have to return to Class A in 2007.

3. Drew Butera, C
The son of former big-league catcher Sal Butera, the Central Florida backstop continued to show that it'll be his defense that will carry him anywhere. he hit just .186 in 295 at-bats with Hagerstown, bringing his pro career average down to .198. He then went to Hawaii and hit .232 in 21 games there. He did make nine errors with the Suns, but also threw out 47 percent of would-be base stealers. As impressive as that is, though, he's probably going to have to swing the stick a little better to keep advancing in the system.

Monday, November 06, 2006

Collection of Mets Prospect Analysis

I've come up with a collection of recent rankings and analysis' of mets prospects(Note:They are ALL VERY RECENT)

check it out:
From a very recent top 100 list:
#12. Mike Pelfrey (23) Pitcher -- New York Mets
New York Mets (MLB) 21.1IP 2-1 5.48ERA 179K
Norfolk (AAA) 8IP 1-0 2.25ERA 6K
Binghamton (AA) 66.1IP 4-2 2.71ERA 77K
St. Lucie (High-A) 22IP 2-1 1.64ERA 26K

#37. Fernando Martinez (18) Outfield -- New York Mets
St. Lucie (High-A) 30 Games .193 5HR 11RBI
Hagerstown (Low-A) 45 Games .333 5HR 28RBI
GCL Mets (Rk) 1 Games .250 0HR 0RBI

#56. Carlos Gomez (21) Outfield -- New York Mets
Binghamton (AA) 120 Games .281 7HR 48RBI

Baseball America's rankings by position:

Center Field/Outfield
#6 Fernando Martinez
#8 Carlos Gomez

Righthanded Starters
#9 Mike Pelfrey
#11 Philip Humber

Mets top 3 prospects:
New York Mets

1. Fernando Martinez, OF: You can imagine Mets scouts in the Dominican salivating watching this highly-touted prospect named “Jesus” spray line drives from gap to gap. After dropping Jesus in favor of Fernando and signing to a $1.4 million contract in 2005, the 18-year-old (10/10/88) tore up Low-A Hagerstown before he was awarded a late-season promotion to High-A St. Lucie. His production slowed after the promotion, but he put up .279/.336/.457 combined vitals.

Paired with his comparative youth in both the leagues that Martinez played in, the 6-foot-0, 185-pound lefty was also just as productive against left-handed pitchers as he was righties, and his contact numbers were extremely impressive, as he struck out just 61 times in 315 at bats (80.6% contact). It’s hard to project when players as young as Martinez will appear at the major league level, but if he lives up to his considerable promise, the Mets may soon have another offensive messiah.

2. Mike Pelfrey, RHP: Drafted 9th overall in 2005 and given a $3.5 million signing bonus, Pelfrey, 22, has lived up to expectations. He started the season at High-A St. Lucie, before moving to AA-Binghamton, then to the big league roster, back to AAA-Norfolk, and up with the Mets again – that’s a mouthful. His combined 2006 minor league numbers include a 10.19 K/9 ratio, 1.18 WHIP, and 0.37 HR/9.

Pelfrey was disappointing in his 21.1 inning major league regular season debut (5.49 K/9 and 1.74 WHIP) but standing 6-foot-7 and owning a fastball that touches the high nineties as well as an above-average slider, quality curve, and changeup, he is almost a lock to start next season in New York, where he should make his way to the top of the rotation in the near future.

3. Phillip Humber, RHP : A 6-foot-4, 210-pound righty out of Rice University, Humber, 23, underwent Tommy John surgery in July of 2005 and suddenly looked like more of a risk than the Mets bargained for when they took him third overall in 2004.

But Humber regained his form beautifully upon his return to the mound in late-June. The Texas native went on to combine for a 9.32 K/9 ratio, 1.00 WHIP, and 0.94 HR/9 ratio with the Golf Coast League Rookie Mets (4.0 innings), High-A St. Lucie (38.0), and Double-A Binghamton (34.1). He’ll become the fixture that he was supposed to be in the Mets rotation before long.

also, Fernando Martinez was ranked best prospect in the entire NL EAST, meaning, best prospect out of the mets, marlins, braves, phillies, and nats farm systems.

Another sites top 10 prospects:
Our Top 10 Prospects

1. Delmon Young, OF (TB)
2. Alex Gordon, 3B (KC)
3. Brandon Wood, 3B (LAA)
4. Phil Hughes, SP (NYY)
5. Billy Butler, OF (KC)
6. Homer Bailey, SP (CIN)
7. Jay Bruce, OF (CIN)
8. Andrew McCutchen, OF (PIT)
9. Cameron Maybin, OF (DET)
10. Fernando Martinez, OF (NYM)

check out number 10 =)

Some more raving on Fernando Martinez:
Maybe the most impressive player so far in Arizona is Martinez, the Mets' Class A outfielder who signed last summer for $1.4 million. "It's pretty incredible at age 18 to be out here holding your own," says an American League scout. "He's a solid runner, throws pretty well, and he's going to hit. I admire this kid. . . . It's amazing considering he ought to be taking high school algebra right now, not batting practice." The same scout notes Martinez is "very respectful of older players," something that apparently has been a problem for Milledge. . .

Because of the workload in his first full season--he logged 89 innings in Class A--Guerra remained in Port St. Lucie after the season throwing bullpens, but he didn't pitch in the instructional league. Guerra already has an exceptional changeup to go along with a fastball that settles in the 88-91 mph range, and the Mets wanted him to work on his breaking pitch. Guerra then returned to his native Venezuela for some winter downtime.

"He has a good fastball, an above-average fastball, and a very good changeup," Mets special assistant Tony Bernazard said. "He's working on the other pitches. But you have to remember he's only 17 years old. Most kids at that age are juniors or seniors in high school."

Said farm director Adam Wogan: "It's a very positive sign for him that his changeup is such a strong pitch at his experience level. I think that's why he's been able to advance."

Guerra is expected to begin 2007 in the Florida State League. Mets executives rave about his maturity.

"He's a very remarkable kid," Wogan said. "I shouldn't call him a kid. I should call him a man. I think you get past the age. His performance in full-season ball stands out regardless of age."



• Outfielder Dustin Martin was off to a great start for the North Shore Honu in Hawaii Winter Baseball. The 22-year-old had six hits in his first 14 at-bats with two doubles and three walks. Martin hit .315/.399/.454 for short-season Brooklyn in 251 at-bats.


• The Mets may have gotten a steal in the 37th round of the draft in righthander Josh Stinson. The 18-year-old was 1-3, 1.79 between the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League and Hagerstown and was named the organization's player of the year for the GCL club.

~David