By Howard Megdal on Thursday, January 18 2007
I’m not sure New York Mets fans realize what a treat they have to look forward to in 2007 with Oliver Perez.
While many who follow the Amazin’s panicked as news came down July 31 that Duaner Sanchez had been lost for the season, there was quickly reason to celebrate the occasion, as the resulting deal bringing Roberto Hernandez to the Mets for Xavier Nady had a quite the sweetener from Pittsburgh- one Oliver Perez.
Superficially, an extra pitcher with a 6.63 ERA is nothing to get excited about. But a closer look at what Perez once was, and very well could be again, makes it hard to believe more people aren’t gearing up for Olivermania.
Let’s start at the beginning. Perez shot through the Padres minor league system, and posted a 3.50 ERA (and better than a K per inning) over 90 innings as a 20-year-old relief pitcher at the major league level. Returning to AAA, he posted a 3.02 ERA as a 21-year-old, and after being dealt to Pittsburgh, he struck out 239 batters in 196 innings as a 22-year-old with an ERA of 2.98. A pitcher posting those kinds of numbers as a 22-year-old at AA would be considered a valuable property- Perez did it at that age against major league hitters.
It’s not as if he didn’t have the stuff to match his stats, either. His fastball was routinely clocked at 95-96, touching 98. His slider had incredible movement on it, and his curves put Scarlett Johansen to shame.
What happened next is shrouded in mystery. In an echo of Mel Stottlemyre and Dwight Gooden, Pittsburgh attempted to change Perez’s mechanics before the 2005 season. Unfortunately for both the Bucs and Perez, it became clear once the process started that neither Perez nor the Pittsburgh staff knew how to put the ace back together again. His velocity dropped 8-10 MPH on his fastball, his slider stayed straight more often than not, and his curve simply didn’t find the strike zone.
Many people point to Perez’s 2005-2006 stats as reason to be doubtful about his 2007 success. Had the Mets not traded for him, and had there not been nine subsequent starts to evaluate, that would be a reasonable position. Perhaps Perez would never put his mechanics back into place, like fellow former Pirate Steve Blass. Perhaps he was hiding an injury, which is frequently the cause for sudden drops in velocity.
But we have the advantage of those nine starts. While Perez’s overall numbers were not awe-inspiring, we saw progression in A) his velocity, returning to a consistent 94-95 MPH and touching 97-98, B) the movement on his slider and ability to throw his curveball for strikes, and best of all C) an increase in both his first-pitch strikes and overall number of strikes in each start. It also put to rest any concerns that his problems were injury-related, the number-one killer of young pitching.
The five regular season starts he showed his best control in 2006 were in his four September and one October regular season appearances for the Mets. After a two-week layoff, Perez came back to throw 56 of 92 pitches for strikes in Game 4 of the NLCS, then a Greg Maddux-like 61 of 88 for strikes in Game 7, the most important game he’d pitched to this point in his career.
Of course, Maddux never dreamed of touching 98 on the gun, let alone having the movement on his secondary pitches like that of Oliver Perez. It became clear, from results and from the dramatic difference in Perez’s mechanics, that the 2005-2006 Pirates edition of Oliver Perez was not the one pitching for the Mets by the end of the 2006 season.
Now before I get letters asking how I can refer to Greg Maddux as "the poor man’s Oliver Perez," let me make it clear that there are no guarantees in baseball. Generation K did not end up K’ing many. Tim Leary was only an ace for the Mets if you were experimenting with the hallucinogens of Timothy Leary. And when David West sat around the clubhouse, well, you know how that joke ends.
But the Mets have a pitcher in Perez who possesses raw stuff essentially unequalled among lefty starters in the game today. (Close second? Scott Kazmir. Take a second to breathe.) He is 25 years old. He has shown the ability to pitch as well as anyone in baseball when his mechanics are in place, and not only does he have a pitching coach whose specialty is fixing wayward arms and legs, early results suggest that when the two work together, Perez’s delivery problems are solved. One can only imagine what a full spring will do for Perez’s approach- not to mention his confidence.
How rare a season awaits Mets fans in 2007? In Perez’s 7 regular-season and two postseason starts, he struck out 48 in 48 and 2/3 innings, and in his career, even including the lost Pittsburgh seasons of 05-06 (when his K rate dropped precipitously), he’s fanned 673 in 628 1/3 innings. The last Mets starter to strike out more than a batter per inning? David Cone, 1992.
Met faithful were thrilled by the signing of Pedro Martinez, restoring a sense of excitement about a starting pitcher’s appearances not seen at Shea since the heyday of Dwight Gooden. However, in Oliver Perez, not only can fans flock to see a pitcher whose stuff can deliver that elusive no-hitter on any night, they’ll see him in his prime.
If you believe that the Pittsburgh Pirates manage pitchers well (see Duke, Zach, Arroyo, Bronson, Wells, Kip and so on for evidence to the contrary), Perez’s 05-06 in that organization represents his true ability, and that despite his returning strikeout rate and better-than-ever control, 48 innings as a Met are too small a sample size to evaluate anyone, then continue to be skeptical of Oliver Perez’s future.
However, if the mounting evidence that the Mets acquired the 2004-level, still developing Oliver Perez continues to build, be prepared for one of the most spectacular, unexpected pitching performances in the history of the New York Mets.
http://www.gothambaseball.com/news/1169135221.php
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