MPH System Audit - First Base

First Base

We have very good depth at first base, and it starts with a MPH favorite, someone who we’re expecting to go off in Binghamton next season. Carp is a VERY Wright-esque hitter, in that he goes the other way very naturally.

The system doesn’t start and end with Carp, there is a good amount of depth here. Nick Evans and Brett Harper are good prospects, and then there is the professional hitting machine known as Michel Abreu. And rounding out the top 5 is a big hulking first baseman named Junior (riiiiiiiiiight) Contreras.

Aside from the outfield, and starting pitching, this is the deepest part of the farm system. Bank on Mike Carp having another breakout season in Binghamton, and becoming a household name, much as David Wright did in 2004. Carp is ticketted for a 2009 arrival at Citifield.

1. Mike Carp (A+ St. Lucie .287/.379/.450, North Shore, HWL .297/.360/.396 (30 for 101, 14 runs, 6 2b, 2 3b, 0 HR, 17 RBI, 9 BBs, 27 Ks)

Total 2006 Stats: 173 games, 612 ABs, 178 hits, 86 runs, 35 2b, 3 3b, 17 HR, 109 RBI, 62 BBs, 135 Ks, .291/.356/.441 with a .797 OPS

Mike Carp was drafted out of Lakewood High in the 9th round of the 2004 draft, after putting up these stats as a senior: 32 games, 52 for 107, 14 2b, 8 3b, 11 HR, 60 RBI, 17 BBs, 11 Ks, .486/.557/1.075 with a 1.632 OPS. He was sent to the Gulf Coast League, where he batted .267/.358/.393 in 57 games. In 2005, playing for Hagerstown of the Sally League, Carp hit .249/.358/.476, blasting 19 homers in 313 ABs. However, Carp hit 11 homers in his first 26 games at mid Class A Hagerstown in 2005 then fell into a deep slump before injuring his right wrist.

2006 was Carp’s coming out party, as he put it all together for St. Lucie, with a .287/.379/.450 line, with 27 doubles and 17 homers in 491 ABs. Carp’s higher average was a direct result of reinventing his stroke. Where previously, he was an all or nothing pull hitter, in 2006 he concentrated on going the other way, turning himself into a David Wright esque hitter, he’s got tremendous natural power the other way. He’s got a good approach for his age, combining his willingness to go the other way with an advanced eye at the plate.

The one big negative remaining in Carp’s game is his numbers against left handed pitching. He batted .238 with just three home runs in 151 at-bats against lefthanders. There are mixed reviews about Carp's defense. He's by no means a butcher, but he doesn't have quick feet and he has trouble receiving throws. He reaches for balls instead of letting them come to him, creating unnecessary errors. He's a below-average runner.

The Future: Carp will need his bat to carry him, and it may do just that. The Mets will get a better read on his future after he spends 2007 in Double-A.

2. Nick Evans (A Hagerstown .254/.320/.419)

Evans was drafted in the 5th round out of St. Mary’s High in Phoenix, in 2004. He signed and went to the Gulf Coast League, where he hit .258/.311/.462 in 50 games. He opened 2005 with Kingsport in the Appalachian League, and hit .344/.382/.734 in 15 games, before being promoted to Brooklyn, where he hit .252/.302/.407 in 57 games. As a 20 year old in the South Atlantic League, Evans hit .254/.320/.419, with 33 doubles and 15 homers in 511 ABs. He was one strikeout shy of 100, and walked 45 times, showing decent plate discipline.

Evans has a few things working against him. #1 would be Mike Carp, who is higher on the organizational depth chart at first base. Another would be Shawn Bowman, who is higher on the organizational depth chart, period. Evans will have to put up monster numbers in St. Lucie (which he might), and hope Mike Carp falls flat on his face in the Eastern League (which he won’t), to leapfrog into the #1 spot for the successor to Delgado race.

Besides, the Mets like to buy their first baseman. Who was the last homegrown first baseman? Jason Phillips 2003?

3. Brett Harper (AA Binghamton .338/.427/.446)

Harper was drafted in the 45th round of the 2000 draft out of Scottsdale Community College, where he played one season. Harper has spent 6 seasons in the Mets organization, toiling through the system.

Harper blasted his way through 4 levels in 2003, beginning in Kingsport and ending in St. Lucie. In 62 combined games between Kingsport, Brooklyn and Cap City, Harper hit .333 with 22 doubles and 4 homers.

In 2004, he torched St. Lucie for a .350/.440/.564 line in 60 games, with 18 doubles and 9 homers, before a promotion to Binghamton slowed him down (.247/.309/.437). 2005 was Harper’s breakout season, he hit .277 between St. Lucie and Binghamton, with 22 doubles and 36 homers, 102 RBI. However, 19 games into the 2006 season, he suffered a season ending shoulder injury, perhaps derailing his career with the Mets. Mike Carp passed him on the depth chart with a breakout season in St. Lucie, and Harper is now a man without a level, with Nick Evans, in all likelihood, opening the season in St. Lucie, and Mike Carp in Binghamton, and Michel Abreu in New Orleans, Harper has no level to go to.

A possible solution would be to platoon Carp and Harper in Binghamton, with one DHing and the other playing the field, and that may be what the Mets end up doing.

3. Michel Abreu (AA Binghamton .332/.404/.530, Mesa, AFL .280/.362/.548)

Total 2006 Stats: .322/.391/.532 (161 for 500, 80 runs, 34 2b, 3b, 23 HR, 95 RBI, 57 BBs, 100 Ks)

Let’s get a few things straight before we go into the limited amount of information we have on Abreu. He is 31 years old, he was born on 2/8/75, he is almost 32. Now, as we saw with Chris Coste, a 32/33 year old can come up to the major leagues and make a meaningful contribution (Coste hit .328/.376/.505 in 198 ABs for the Phillies). Could Abreu do something like that? Yeah, he probably can. But he is not, nor ever will be, the future, as some have intimated. He’s 32 years old, and will open the season getting his first taste of AAA ball.

OK, now that that’s done, onto the bio. Abreu was signed by the Mets in February, after the Red Sox found out he was lying about his age. He can only play first base, and isn’t that good defensively.

Logically, the Mets have the following: Ben Johnson (OF), Endy Chavez (Superman – OF), Julio Franco (Father Time – 1b, 3b), Damion Easly (for whatever reasons, IF) and Ramon Castro (Tank II – C) on the bench. And if we are going to go with a 12 man pitching staff (7 in the pen), Abreu has no shot at making the Mets as a bench player. Some team who needs one may trade something for him, but it won’t be anything good, that’s for sure.

5. Junior Contreras (A- Brooklyn .250/.379/.250, R Kingsport .288/.359/.384)

Total 2006 Stats: .284./.361/.368 (57 for 201, 17 runs, 8 2b, 3 HR, 25 RBI, 22 BBs, 47 Ks)

Contreras is a product of the Mets DSL, he was signed in 2004, and made his stateside debut in 2005, batting .291/.401/.500 in 46 games in the Gulf Coast League.

In 2006, Contreras got off to a bad start for Brooklyn, and was demoted to Kingsport, where he did better, but he only hit 3 homers and 8 doubles in 54 games (201 ABs). There were many reports that Contreras was overweight and out of shape during the season. He will most likely open 2006 as a 21 year old in Brooklyn.