Mets Prospect Hub

Starting Pitchers - 1 to 10

Everyone knows the names Pelfrey and Humber. Some people know the names Mulvey, Guerra, Soler and Niese. Some even know relief pitcher Joe Smith. But there is much more to the Mets starting depth then those 6 names, as evidenced by our top 20 starters. One of 2006’s biggest draft steals is Joshua Stinson, a projected 6th-8th rounder who the Mets nabbed in the 37th round. Jacob Ruckle was kidnapped in the 41st round of the 2004 draft. We have a wide variety of pitchers in our system, ranging from flamethrowers (Pelfrey, to a lesser extent Humber), the highly projectable (Guerra, Niese, Stinson), and the future relievers (Soler, Devaney), and everything in between.

1. Mike Pelfrey (A+ St. Lucie 2-1, 1.64 era, 4 GS, 22 IP, 17 H, 2 BBs, 26 Ks, 0.86 WHIP, AA Binghamton 4-2, 2.71 era, 12 GS, 66.1 IP, 60 H, 26 BBs, 77 Ks, 1.30 WHIP, MLB Mets 2-1, 5.48 era, 4 GS, 21.1 IP, 25 H, 12 BBs, 13 Ks, 1.73 era, AAA Norfolk 1-0, 2.25 era, 2 GS, 8 IP, 4 H, 5 BBs, 6 Ks, 1.13 era)

Total 2006 Stats: 9-4, 2.98 era, 22 GS, 117.2 IP, 106 H, 45 BBs, 122 Ks, 1.28 WHIP

Pelfrey was originally drafted by the Devil Rays in the 15th round of the 2002 draft, but instead of signing, he opted to go to Wichita State, where he posted a 33-7 record, with a school-record 2.18 ERA, in 3 seasons. The consensus top pitcher in the 2005 draft he fell to the Mets at the 9th pick due to signability concerns. Pelfrey signed early in 2006, and after pitching 7 innings in major league camp, he went to high class A St. Lucie, where it was obvious he outclassed the league, after 4 starts in the Florida State League, he went up to Binghamton.

Pelfrey credits veteran catcher Mike DiFelice--whom the Mets sent to Binghamton solely to serve as mentor--with helping him gain confidence in his secondary stuff. He earned a major league callup when Pedro Martinez first went on the disabled list in July and won his first big league start before being sent to Triple-A Norfolk.

Strengths: There are few pitchers in the minors whose fastball can rival Pelfrey's. His two-seamer sits at 92-95 mph with fierce sink and late life and rates as a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale. He throws it effortlessly from a 6-foot-7 frame on a steep downhill plane with great extension and solid command. He also has a four-seamer for extra velocity higher in the zone. Though Pelfrey barely needed to use a changeup as an amateur, he already has a good feel for it and it's his No. 2 pitch. He fiddled with his grip in 2006 and improved his command of the pitch. He fields his position well and has a good pickoff move, though the Mets would like to see him get faster to the plate from the stretch.

Weaknesses: A lack of a reliable breaking ball is the biggest thing holding Pelfrey back. He has thrown both a curveball and a slider but now favors the slider, which is better suited for his power arm. He throws it at 84-87 mph with some depth, and he can reduce the break on it to give it more of a cutter look against lefthanders. He has yet to learn how to command his slider consistently, and it probably always will be his third-best pitch. Though his mechanics are clean, he tends to over-rotate his lower half in his windup, which hurts his ability to locate his pitches.

The Future: Though he needs better command of his secondary stuff, there's little left for Pelfrey to prove in the minors. With Martinez out until at least the all-star break, Pelfrey will definitely be in the mix for the Opening Day rotation. He should be in the Mets rotation for years to come and has the potential to be a legitimate No. 1 starter.

2. Phillip Humber (A+ St. Lucie 3-1, 2.37 era, 7 GS, 38 IP, 24 H, 9 BBs, 36 Ks, 0.87 WHIP, AA Binghamton 2-2, 2.88 era, 6 GS, 34.1 IP, 25 H, 10 BBs, 36 Ks, 1.02 WHIP)

Total 2006 Stats: 5-3, 2.75 era, 16 G, 14 GS, 78.1 IP, 56 H, 21 BBs, 81 Ks, 0.98 WHIP

Humber was originally drafted in the 29th round of the 2001 draft by the Yankees, but didn’t sign and instead went to Rice University, where he headlined a staff featuring Wade Townsend and Jeff Niemann. Humber put up a career 35-8 record in 3 seasons at Rice, with a 2.80 era, in 56 appearances, 49 starts. He was assigned to high class A St. Lucie, and in 14 starts, posted a 4.99 era in 70.1 IP, with a 1.31 WHIP. One start into his AA career, he blew out his arm and had to have Tommy John Surgery.

The surgery sidelined him for a year, but one positive emerged: he refined his changeup, the only pitch he was allowed to throw for the first few months of rehab, to where it is now a plus offering. Already boasting a plus-plus 74-78 MPH curveball, and a plus 92-96 MPH fastball, Humber returned to action determined to prove his naysayers wrong. And prove them wrong he did. He posted a 5-3, 2.83 minor league line, and got into 2 major league games, in relief.

Strengths: Humber's curveball is one of the best in the minors. Thrown at 74-78 mph, it has tight rotation with a powerful downward action. His fastball sits at 92-96 mph. He also features a developing low-80s changeup with late sink. He throws strikes with all three pitches.

Weaknesses: Humber has a tendency to overthrow, which tires him out and costs him his command. It also hurts his changeup, which loses its effectiveness when it climbs to 86-87 mph. As good as his curveball is, he could do a better job of throwing it for strikes because big league hitters will be less likely to chase it.

The Future: Though his Arizona Fall League stint ended with a sore shoulder, an MRI revealed no damage and Humber is primed for his first full-season workload. Though his stuff is good enough to pitch in the big leagues, Humber will probably be better served with a full season in Triple-A to improve his endurance. He profiles as a No. 2 or 3 starter.

3. Deolis Guerra (A Hagerstown 6-7, 2.20 era, 17 GS, 81.2 IP, 59 H, 37 BBs, 64 Ks, 1.18 WHIP, A+ St. Lucie 1-1, 6.14 era, 2 GS, 7.1 IP, 9 H, 6 BBs, 5 Ks, 2.05 era)

Total 2006 Stats: 7-8, 2.53 era, 19 GS, 89 IP, 68 H, 43 BBs, 69 Ks, 1.25 WHIP

Guerra signed out of Venezuela in 2005 for a $700,000 bonus, and was challenged immensely, he was sent to the South Atlantic League as a 17 year old, by far the youngest player in the league. After getting off to a rough start, he recovered to go 6-5, 1.90 in the last three months and earn a late promotion to high Class A, where he was obliterated in his first start, lasting just 2.1 innings, giving up 4 hits, 4 runs (all earned), 4 walks and 3 strikeouts. In his second start, Guerra showed he can make quick adjustments, as he went 5 innings, allowing 5 hits, just 1 run (earned), while walking only 2, and striking out 2. Guerra also got 1 playoff start, which was decent. He allowed 3 runs, all earned, over 5 innings, while walking 3, striking out 2 and allowing 3 hits.

Strengths: Guerra stands out most with a feel for his changeup that's exceptional for a teenager. He maintains his normal arm action, setting up a fastball that sits at 88-90 mph and touches 92. His frame should allow for more velocity as he matures, making the gap between his changeup and fastball all the more difficult for hitters.

Weaknesses: Guerra's curveball is below average. He lacks confidence in his curve, and it has poor rotation and depth. The tilt and velocity on his breaking ball changes as he tries to figure it out, and it's possible it could morph into a slider. His delivery is repeatable but too slow and mechanical.

The Future: With a little more velocity and an average curveball, Guerra would establish himself as an elite prospect. Time is certainly on his side, as he'll begin the season at age 17, making him a safe bet to be the youngest player in the Florida State League.

Update: On Guerra, it appears that his CB began to develop during the month of August and he improved it during the Instructional League. The Mets now believe that it will develop into a plus pitch. Also, he has been rated as having the best CU in the system.

4. Jon Niese (A Hagerstown 11-9, 3.93 era, 25 GS, 123.2 IP, 121 H, 62 BBs, 132 Ks, 1.48 WHIP, A+ St. Lucie 0-2, 4.50 era, 2 GS, 10 IP, 8 H, 5 BBs, 10 Ks, 1.30 WHIP)

Total 2006 Stats: 11-11, 3.97 era, 27 GS, 133.2 IP, 129 H, 67 BBs, 142 Ks, 1.41 WHIP

Niese was drafted in the 7th round of the 2005 draft, after allowing a staggering 1 run in 78 innings, for a 0.11 ERA. He was deemed a tough sign, but after a recruiting call from Gary Carter, he signed for above slot money, $175,000. He was sent to the Gulf Coast League, where he went 1-0, 3.65 in 7 games, 5 starts. In 2006, Niese started in Hagerstown, skipping Kingsport and Brooklyn. He showed no ill effects of the jump, and before late season arm fatigue, was dominating the South Atlantic League. A late promotion to St. Lucie produced mixed results. His first start was decent, as he allowed 3 runs, 1 earned, in 5 innings, while walking 3, striking out 5 and allowing 3 hits. His next start, however, was not good, as he surrendered 5 runs, 4 earned, over 5 innings, while walking 2, striking out 5 and allowing 5 hits.

He's a projectable (6-foot-3, 180 pounds) lefty who already has a high-80s fastball. His splitter, curveball and slider all have potential.

Strengths: Niese is at his best when he has command of his four-pitch mix. He has a lively fastball that sits at 87-90 mph. His big, looping 68-70 mph curveball is a strikeout pitch when it's on. He's willing to throw his 77-79 mph straight changeup to both lefthanders and righthanders. He also throws a plus 84-86 mph splitter. The Mets love his competitive fire.

Weaknesses: Though both his curveball and changeup have potential, Niese rarely has a feel for both of them on the same night. His curve could use more consistent rotation and he needs better command of both pitches. He can get overcompetitve and try to strike everyone out, which works against him. He'll have to get stronger after wearing down as his first full season progressed, resulting in some ugly late-season starts.

The Future: Despite some inconsistency, Niese showed promise in 2006. He'll return to high Class A, where he made two late starts, and projects as a middle-of-the-rotation starter.

5. Kevin Mulvey (Villanova 3-8, 3.61 era, 14 GS, 92.1 IP, 91 H, 23 BBs, 88 Ks, 1.23 WHIP, GCL Mets 2 IP, H, K, 0.50 WHIP, AA Binghamton 0-1, 1.35 era, 13.1 IP, 10 H, 5 BBs, 10 Ks, 1.13 WHIP, AFL Mesa 0-2, 6.00 era, 5 GS, 15 IP, 17 H, 8 BBs, 7 Ks, 1.67 WHIP)

Total 2006 Stats: 3-11, 3.60 era, 23 GS, 122.2 IP, 118 H, 36 BBs, 106 Ks, 1.26 WHIP

Originally selected by St. Louis Cardinals in 34th Round of the 2003 draft, Mulvey opted to go to college at Villanova, instead. Mulvey was 3-8 with a 3.61 ERA as a junior at Villanova. He logged 92.1 innings, and compiled 88 Ks against just 23 walks, prompting the Mets to draft him with their 2nd round pick, 62nd overall. Mulvey was expected to go in the top 30 picks, so the Mets felt they moved up a whole round with the drafting of Mulvey. His 3 seasons at Villanova produced a 14-16 record with a 4.46 era, in 244 innings, he allowed 248 hits while walking 96 and striking out 242.

Before the draft, he was considered by Baseball America to be the `best arm in the Northeast” and a “pitcher who always works around the zone and isn’t afraid to attack hitters.” Mulvey features a dominating fastball that has been clocked as high as 94-96 and consistently is in a range between 89-92. He sets that up with a slider to right-handed hitters and an improved curveball and changeup (82-84 mph) that he uses to get lefties out. The change-up comes out of his hand the same way as his fastball. That’s 4 quality pitchers. Mulvey is well known to consistently throw strikes and go after hitters. Baseball America, after the draft, tagged Mulvey with the best fastball of all Mets 2006 draftees.

The one thing that separates Mulvey from Humber or Pelfrey is that one dominant pitch, which Mulvey lacks. He has 4 solid to above average offerings, but no true plus pitches, ala Pelfrey’s fastball or Humber’s curveball. During the AFL, Mulvey was experimenting with a cut fastball, trying to augment his already solid fastball/slider/changeup/curveball repertoire.

Strengths: Mulvey came to pro ball with a feel for four pitches. His fastball sits at 90-93 mph and touches 96. He has good leverage in his delivery, which allows him to maintain his velocity and might give him more as he matures physically. His 82-84 mph slider has short, late break. He's effective at changing batter's eye level with his mid-70s curveball. His changeup should at least provide a weapon against lefthanders. He throws from a high three-quarters arm slot with a fluid arm action and little effort.

Weaknesses: Though he can throw all four of his pitches for strikes, Mulvey's command within the zone needs work. His changeup is still a below-average pitch at this point, and he lacks a true putaway pitch.

The Future: The Mets believe Mulvey has a chance to have four above-average pitches and could join their rotation in 2008. He may start his first full season in St. Lucie to avoid the cold April climate in Binghamton.

6. Alay Soler (A+ St. Lucie 2-0, 0.60 era, 6 GS, 30 IP, 13 H, 9 BBs, 33 Ks, 0.73 WHIP, AA Binghamton 1-0, 2.75 era, 3 GS, 19.2 IP, 16 H, 3 BBs, 22 Ks, 0.97 WHIP, MLB Mets 2-3, 6.00 era, 8 GS, 45 IP, 50 H, 21 BBs, 23 Ks, 1.58 era, AAA Norfolk, 1-1, 6.30 era, 2 GS, 10 IP, 13 H, 4 BBs, 12 Ks, 1.70 WHIP, PWL Ponce 1-1, 1.06 era, 5 G, 2 GS, 17 IP, 13 H, 4 BBs, 14 Ks, 1.00 WHIP)

Total 2006 Stats: 7-6, 3.57 era, 22 GS, 126 IP, 107 H, 43 BBs, 113 Ks, 1.19 WHIP

Alay Soler signed a $2.8 mil major league deal on September 1st, 2004, as a Cuban defector, but missed all of 2005 dealing with visa problems. He showed up to his first big league camp out of shape and had a poor spring training, though he bounced back to reach New York in May. He threw a two-hit shutout against the Diamondbacks, but struggled with his control shortly afterward and was demoted in early July. Soler is 26 years old, so there a little to no projection left, and he is a bit old to be a prospect, despite having prospect status.

Strengths: Soler has success when he attacks the strike zone with his low-90s fastball and above-average slider. The latter is his best pitch. He throws it at 80-81 mph with sharp, late break to righthanders and slows it down and backdoors it against lefties.

Weaknesses: Soler is his own worst enemy and gets in trouble when he tries to nibble and play around with his offspeed stuff in what looks like an attempt to emulate fellow Cuban Orlando Hernandez. He needs to dedicate himself much more to conditioning after making a bad first impression. After his midsummer demotion, he missed six weeks with a minor Achilles problem that isn't considered serious but wasn't helped by his excess weight.

The Future: If Soler plays to his strengths, he has the chance to be a solid back-of-the-rotation starter or setup man. How much time he spends getting in shape likely will dictate his assignment in 2007, when he could contribute in the majors

7. Michael Devaney (A+ St. Lucie 8-3, 1.62 era, 16 GS, 94.2 IP, 63 H, 35 BBs, 86 Ks, 1.04 WHIP, AA Binghamton 4-2, 3.06 era, 53 IP, 39 H, 35 BBs, 43 Ks, 1.40 WHIP)

Total 2006 Stats: 12-5, 2.13 era, 26 GS, 147.2 IP, 102 H, 70 BBs, 129 Ks, 1.16 WHIP

Devaney was drafted in the 23rd round of the 2004 draft out of Concordia College, where as a junior, he was 5-8 with a 3.68 era in 15 games, 13 starts. Spanning 78.1 innings, Devaney allowed 68 hits while walking 33 and striking out 67. As a senior, Devaney went 7-0 with a 1.91 era, in 66 innings, he struck out 79, on his way to winning Region I Pitcher of the Year and All-American honors. The Mets drafted the senior in the 23rd round and sent him to low A Brooklyn, where he excelled, going 5-0 with a 1.95 era in 14 starts, spanning 69.1 innings. In 2005, Devaney spent the entire season with Hagerstown of the South Atlantic League, and put up very good numbers. He sported a 10-4 record with a 3.88 era in 32 games, 15 of which were starts.

2006 proved to be Devaney’s breakout season, as he advanced to AA ball and started to get some buzz from fans. Featuring an arsenal comparable to Brian Bannister, Devaney is about a half season behind Bannister, in terms of development. Right now Devaney has two very good pitches, his fastball and curveball. His fastball sits around 89-91mph. His curveball actually makes his fastball better. It generally is in the low 70's which makes his fastball look that much faster. He has the confidence to throw his curve at any time. The changeup and slider both sit in the mid-to-upper 70's. Mike will continue to work to improve these two pitches to compliment his other ones.

8. Adam Bostick (AA Carolina 8-7, 3.52 era, 22 GS, 115 IP, 100 H, 67 BBs, 109 Ks, 1.45 WHIP, AAA Albuqurque 1-2, 4.67 era, 5 GS, 27 IP, 39 H, 13 BBs, 30 Ks, 1.93 WHIP, AFL Peoria Javelinas 0-0, 5.66 era, 6 GS, 20.2 IP, 24 H, 10 BBs, 16 Ks, 1.65 WHIP)

Total 2006 Stats: 9-9, 3.98 era, 33 GS, 162.2 IP, 163 H, 90 BBs, 155 Ks

Bostick was drafted in the 6th round of the 2001 draft by the Marlins, and assigned to their Gulf Coast League team. He missed all of the 2002 season with an injury, and began his 03 season with Jamestown of the New York Penn League. He did not get above A ball until the latter half of the 05 season. 2006 was the first time he’d been to AAA ball. On November 20th, 2006, the Marlins traded Bostick, along with Jason Vargas, to the Mets in exchange for a pair of minor league relievers, Matthew Lindstrom and Henry Owens.

Various scouting reports have said that he has a smooth delivery, and pitches at 88-90 mph and tops out at 93 mph. He has known for having the best curveball in the Marlins system, but his changeup needs work. He also has had erratic command and shown a lack of endurance, but only gave up 7 home runs in the 2006 season.

9. Josh Stinson (R GCL Mets 1-2, 2.00 era, 9 G, 4 GS, 27 IP, 27 H, 5 BBs, 14 Ks, 1.19 WHIP, A Hagerstown 0-1, 1.35 era, 3 GS, 13.1 IP, 11 H, 4 BBs, 5 Ks, 1.13 WHIP)

Total 2006 Stats: 1-3, 1.80 era, 12 games, 7 GS, 40.1 IP, 38 H, 9 BBs, 19 Ks, 1.17 WHIP

The Mets drafted Stinson in the 37th round of the 2006 draft, and sent him to the rookie level Gulf Coast League, where he went 1-2 with a 2.00 era in 9 games (4 starts), totalling 27 innings. A late season promotion to Hagerstown of the South Atlantic League didn't derail the righty, as he put up a 0-1 record, but an outstanding 1.35 era in 3 starts, 13.1 IP. He combined between the two levels to go 1-3 with a 1.79 era. The Mets found themselves another steal with Stinson, since he was projected to go around rounds 8 to 10. Instead, he dropped to the 37th round, but signed for 7th round money.

Stinson features 5 pitches, a 2 and 4 seam fastball, slider, curve and change. His fastball varies from 85-89, sometimes topping out at 94, with his curve at 74-78, and his change at 75-79. Expect Stinson to open the 2007 season as a 19 year old in the South Atlantic League, with the new class A affiliate Savannah. A promotion to the Florida State League wouldn’t be out of the question.

10. Jacob Ruckle (A+ St. Lucie 4-3, 1.60 era, 9 G, 6 GS, 50.2 IP, 47 H, 7 BBs, 25 Ks, 1.07 WHIP, A- Brooklyn 5-3, 3.38 era, 14 GS, 80 IP, 88 H, 8 BBs, 51 Ks, 1.20 WHIP)

Total 2006 Stats: 9-6, 2.69 era, 23 G, 20 GS, 130.2 IP, 135 H, 15 BBs, 76 Ks

The Mets drafted Ruckle in the 41st round of the 2004 draft, and upon his signing, sent him to the Gulf Coast League, where he went 8-1 with a 2.10 era in 11 games, 8 starts.

There was no bigger victim of the idiotic Mets policy of stacking Brooklyn then Ruckle, who was dominating the Florida State League to the tune of a 1.60 era in 50.2 innings. However, when Fred Wilpon decided player development would take a backseat to Brooklyn winning, Ruckle was demoted to the Cyclones.

Word from the best hitting team in the New York Penn League was they hated facing Jake Ruckle, with his unorthodox (Dontrelle Willis like) delivery. While he doesn't boast Dontrelle's stuff, that didn't stop him from blowing away the Florida State League as a 20 year old, before the inexplicable demotion to Brooklyn.

Ruckle features a high 80s fastball, which tops out at 92, which a over the top curveball in the 74-77 range, and a good 83-85 changeup. He should (properly) open the 2007 season in St. Lucie, with a trip to Binghamton not out of the question.