Here is an interview with the guy who did the Mets top 10 prospects on Baseball Prospectus, Kevin Goldstein:
TH: Ok, lets focus in on that top four, in order, Martinez, Humber, Pelfrey and Gomez. How close was it picking Martinez for the top spot, over the two RHP?
KG: It was very, very close. I think one could flip those top three in any order really, and make a perfectly logical argument for it
TH: I agree.
KG: In the end, I just found Martinez more special I guess. Humber and Pelfrey are really 2 and 2A -- if you ask 20 people, 10 will barely prefer Humber and 10 will barely prefer Pelfrey, but nobody will have an overwhelming favorite. At the same time, there are people who think Gomez might be No. 1
TH: How much of that "special" feeling you got re: Martinez was driven by the rave reports he was pulling down this fall as the youngest guy in the Arizona Fall League?
KG: Yeah, it's hard not to weight the most recent stuff more. I talked to a handful of people who saw him down there and they were pretty universal in their praise, but the thing is, I got the same glowing reviews from those who saw him in Hagerstown and St. Lucie as well. People just can't believe he's that good at that age. The only real knock is that he's not a CF in the end
TH: I can deal with that. Lets move to the realm of wild conjecture for a second. If he starts 2007 in St. Lucie, and 2008 in Binghamton, the earliest we see him at Shea is a September in 2008 cameo shy of his 20th B-Day or should I push it back to 09?
KG: That's certainly possible. I think '09 is more realistic, but your scenario isn't a ridiculous one.
TH: You wrote that you're not sure what kind of hitter he'll be when he hits the big leagues, but if you had to make a best guess, between him developing the power to be a 3-4-5 or a more OBP oriented approach to hit in the #2 spot in the batter order, which would it be?
KG: I think he'll end up as a 2 or 3 hitter -- Not a classic 30+ homer guy, but enough power to be dangerous and a great batting average/obp
TH: Very nice. Lets move to the college RHP. You ranked Humber higher than Pelfrey because you believe that it's more likely he maxes out his potential to be a top tier #2, whereas the uncertainly around Pelfrey is still very significant. True?
KG: That's mostly fair. It's a weird balance between what they are and what they can be -- if you asked me which one is more likely to win 100 games, I'd easily take Humber. If you asked me which was more likely to win 200, I'd probably lead towards Pelfrey -- if that makes sense.
TH: Absolutely. It's all about the probability ranges of the two guys reaching their max potential or something less.
KG: Yeah -- Pelfrey's breaking ball really bothered me.
TH: How far away is it?
KG: It's hard to say -- Mets were happy with a slider he worked on in the AFL -- I think we need a long-term run of success with it before we know anything
TH: I expect to see both make at least 10-15 starts for the big Mets in 2007. Do you?
KG: I think that might be a little high. You're putting both in the rotation for 1/2 a year
TH: Exactly.
KG: that doesn't seem a bit strong to you? Especially with Zito looking like he'll come aboard?
TH: Ok, maybe a little high. Still, guys get hurt. Glavine and Hernandez are on the wrong side of 40. I'd love to believe in Perez and Maine, but Perez has been consistently inconsistent his entire career, and Maine's 151 IP between the Mets and AAA was a career high I think.
TH: Given Pelfrey’s arm slot, does a curve or slider make more sense? And you describe his changeup as "usable." What's the biggest issue in improving it?
KG: The Mets think the slider has more possibilities, so that's what matters really. The change up lack deception, and he needs to improve his arm action on it, but he gets some decent movement on it as well -- not surprising considering his fastball.
TH: Now to the guy who confuses me: Carlos Gomez. What's your best comp on him?
KG: It's very hard to do that in the same sense that Martinez is so hard to project as anything more specific than good. If the tools ALL come together, he's a terrifying power/speed combination, but in the end, I think if everything goes well he's more of a 20/40 guy than a 30/30 guy.
TH: One question from a reader on Gomez: What’s an example of someone like Carlos Gomez—a toolsy player who people “projected” would hit for more power than he showed in the minors and then actually did?
KG: There's tons of them.
TH: Yeah, I was throwing out names, how about at his size?
KG: Carlos Beltran hit seven home runs in his first season and a half over 437 at-bats. Mike Cameron hit ZERO home runs in 411 at-bats when he was 20.
TH: And both turned into good/great CF with pop.
KG: Sure. Vernon Wells hit 11 home runs in 134 games at 19.
TH: What do you see for him in AAA this year?
KG: While he has projectable power for sure, it's not going to suddenly happen, it's going to be a gradual thing, it's not like he's suddenly going to crank out 25 or something.
TH: What do you make of his reverse platoon splits where he struggles against lefties?
KG: I don't read too much into it . . . yet. His splits were very even in 2005, so I'm not sure we have a trend yet
TH: Is that a good example of trying to read too much into minor league stats?
KG: It's certainly an example -- the pure numbers mean something, and the scouting reports do as well, but it's hard to define any issues from pure numbers unless you can establish something that goes beyond a sample size issue
TH: Who else just missed the top 10?
KG: It was hard enough to find a 9 and 10! The system drops off pretty fast. Manny Garcia almost made it. Pena almost made it
TH: Oh come on. Guerra's a solid prospect to survive in a full season league at his age.
KG: True. #10 was hard. I had 9 locked in, but #10 was difficult to choose. Guerra is a solid prospect -- I got more flak for that ranking than anything else
TH: So explain the flak you're getting for Guerra...
KG: I think a lot of people see a young guy with those numbers and think he's an elite prospect. I understand that, but at the same time, his stuff just isn't that good yet, and the way he retired batters in the sally league isn't going to work on the upper levels -- he really needs to fill his projection, and it's pretty far off.
TH: Can you hazard any guess about the number or percentage of guys with his physical attributes at his age, turn their projectibility into real MLB quality stuff?
KG: It's almost impossible to say -- we don't have enough 17 year olds pitching in full season ball to define a pattern.
TH: Tell me about Manny Garcia.
KG: Emmanuel Garcia, the infielder. Young player signed out of Canada. He had a nice year at Kingsport, with speed and a good approach, but he's probably not a shortstop in the end.
TH: Right. Future second baseman?
KG: Too early to say, but that's the hope.
big thanks to Loducathebeast for giving us this
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
no prob
ReplyDelete