Baseball America's top 10 Met Prospects + Analysis from Tejesh

TOP TEN PROSPECTS
1. Mike Pelfrey, rhp
2. Fernando Martinez, of
3. Carlos Gomez, of
4. Philip Humber, rhp
5. Deolis Guerra, rhp
6. Kevin Mulvey, rhp
7. Jon Niese, lhp
8. Mike Carp, 1b
9. Joe Smith, rhp
10. Alay Soler, rhp

BEST TOOLS
Best Hitter for Average: Fernando Martinez
Best Power Hitter: Fernando Martinez
Best Strike-Zone Discipline: Corey Coles
Fastest Baserunner: Carlos Gomez
Best Athlete: Carlos Gomez
Best Fastball: Mike Pelfrey
Best Curveball: Philip Humber
Best Slider: Joe Smith
Best Changeup: Deolis Guerra
Best Control: Willie Collazo
Best Defensive Catcher: Drew Butera
Best Defensive Infielder: Jose Coronado
Best Infield Arm: Corey Ragsdale
Best Defensive Outfielder: Carlos Gomez
Best Outfield Arm: Carlos Gomez

PROJECTED 2010 LINEUP
Catcher: Francisco Pena
First Base: Carlos Delgado
Second Base: Anderson Hernandez
Third Base: David Wright
Shortstop: Jose Reyes
Left Field: Lastings Milledge
Center Field: Carlos Beltran
Right Field: Fernando Martinez
No. 1 Starter: Mike Pelfrey
No. 2 Starter: Philip Humber
No. 3 Starter: John Maine
No. 4 Starter: Deolis Guerra
No. 5 Starter: Kevin Mulvey
Closer: Billy Wagner

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No team cruised to the postseason more easily then the Mets in 2006, who did so with a team built through a variety of ways. There were free agents (Carlos Beltran, Billy Wagner), homegrown talent (Jose Reyes, David Wright) and trade acquisitions (Carlos Delgado, Paul Lo Duca, John Maine). A late-season injury to one of their biggest free-agent signings, Pedro Martinez, undermined New York in October. After winning 97 regular-season games and sweeping the Dodgers in the Division Series, the Mets fell to the Cardinals in a memorable seven-game Championship Series.

Though the season's finish was disappointing, New York should be in position to contend for several years. The Mets did their best to ensure that in August, when they locked up both Reyes and Wright beyond their arbitration years for a combined $88.25 million. Reyes is signed through 2010 with an option for 2011 and Wright through 2012 with a 2013 option. Combined with Carlos Beltran, who's signed through 2011 and has yet to turn 30, the Mets will continue to have one of the game's best position-player cores for years. All three finished in the top 10 in the National League MVP voting.

The Mets are one of the biggest spenders in baseball and should be able to fill in most of their major holes on the free-agent market. They plugged their hole in left field by signing Moises Alou. But their farm system has improved to the point where they have players at the upper levels ready to make an impact.

Mike Pelfrey and Philip Humber, their first-rounders from 2005 and 2004 appear poised to break into the big league rotation at some point in 2007 and could be its anchors for years to come. Lastings Milledge (who just missed qualifying for this list) and Carlos Gomez may factor into the outfield as well.

General manager Omar Minaya is always willing to trade prospects for big leaguers, too. He parted with three of his best prospects (righthanders Gaby Hernandez and Yusmeiro Petit, plus first baseman Mike Jacobs) last season to get Delgado and Lo Duca in separate deals with the Marlins. This winter, he dangled Milledge in front of the Athletics in an attempt to bolster New York's rotation.

In recent years, the Mets have done an outstanding job of signing high-ceiling talent. Their drafts haven't been especially deep, in part because they've forfeited eight premium picks in the last five years as free agent compensation, but since 2001 they've signed Aaron Heilman, Wright, Scott Kazmir, Milledge, Humber and Pelfrey as first-round or supplemental first-round picks.

A former Mets international scouting director, Minaya also has re-emphasized his club's efforts on the worldwide market since becoming GM in September 2004. New York invested a combined $2.1 million on Dominican outfielder Fernando Martinez and Venezuelan righthander Deolis Guerra in 2005, and both had outstanding debuts in full-season leagues at age 17. The Mets dipped into the international well again last summer to sign Dominican catcher Francisco Pena, the son of former all-star Tony Pena, for $750,000.In just two years at the helm, Minaya has turned the Mets from a punchline into one of the teams best equipped for the next half-decade. He has big league talent, minor league talent and a budget as large as anyone in the NL. Like the Mets' offense in 2006, it's a lethal combination.

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Tejesh's Take: I think by now, everyone knows what my top 10 list is. But if you don't, here it is:

1. Phillip Humber
2. Mike Pelfrey
3. Carlos Gomez
4. Fernando Martinez
5. Deolis Guerra
6. Jon Niese
7. Mike Carp
8. Joe Smith
9. Kevin Mulvey
10. Alay Soler

But really, 1 & 2, 3 & 4, are interchangeable. Any combination of the 4 at the top works, really, given your particular leaning (what kind of player you like).

But putting Kevin Mulvey, a career 4 era pitcher in college ahead of a deveoping lefty pitcher and a lefty David Wright esque hitter is, to be frank, laughable, at best. It's no surprise, though, considering our intense like here for both Niese and Carp.

Both should open 2007 in St. Lucie, but Niese will be a couple of years younger. And while Mulvey will be (barring anything unforeseen) the first to go north, my money, at least, is on Niese becoming the better pitcher.

There's no doubt that there is a significant dropoff from the first 4 to the next 6, and that's something that hopefully will be resolved in 2007. It takes time to build up a farm system, especially when you are a consistent 1) big spender, and 2) perennial playoff contender, and either have low first round picks, or none.

The 2007 draft should help, assuming we don't sign anymore free agents. We have 2 supplemental 1st round picks, and 2 second round picks. Depending on which route Omar goes with them, whether it be polished college arms, or (my preference) high upside HS middle infielders, that talent gap in the middle should be resolved.

And the Dominican market will always be open with Omar at the helm. All charges of racism aside, if Omar can get us high impact talents like FMart and Deolis Guerra, honestly, I don't care what race they are.

So, to close, we have a strong farm system. Far from the best (simply due to the fact we haven't had the picks), that distinction goes to the Angels, Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Royals, but for a perennial playoff contender, in New York, it's good enough.