Posted on Wed Dec 20, 2006 at 04:22:05 PM CST
2007 New York Mets Prospects
- Fernando Martinez, OF, A- (tools and youth, just needs refinement)
- Mike Pelfrey, RHP, Grade A- (I think the breaking pitch problem is overblown. He had a good one in college and I think he'll find it again. I am sticking with my guns on this one)
- Phil Humber, RHP, B+ (Many prefer him over Pelfrey, I like both)
- Carlos Gomez, OF, B (great tools, but I'm not sure about his power)
- Jon Niese, LHP, B- (projectable lefty is a personal favorite)
- Deolis Guerra, RHP, B- (live arm, a long way away)
- Kevin Mulvey, RHP, B- (accidently left off first list)
- Joe Smith, RHP, B- (impressive reliever could advance fast)
- Mike Carp, 1B, B- (developing power bat to watch)
- Alay Soler, RHP, C+ (Cuban defector looks better as a reliever to me than a starter)
- Adam Bostick, LHP, C+ (acquired from the Marlins, good breaking ball)
- Josh Stinson, RHP, C+ (interesting arm but another guy who will need time)
- Sean Henry, OF, C+ (toolsy, skills may be developing)
- Mike Devany, RHP, C (looks like a utility pitcher to me)
- Nick Evans, 3B, C (making slow progress)
- Shawn Bowman, 3B, C (back injuries two years in a row)
- Michel Abreu, 1B, C (good stats, but how old is he? 26? 31? 52?)
- Stephen Holmes, RHP, C (intriguing arm from '06 draft)
- Tobi Stoner, RHP, C (control artist dominated New York-Penn League)
- Brandon Nall, RHP, C (good numbers but old for the level)
- Dustin Martin, OF, C (hit .315 in the NY-P but strikes out a lot)
The Mets In One Sentence: This system has quality at the top, but the talent level bottoms out very fast.
For some reason, Mets fans tend to get very defensive about their farm system, likely a form of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder from trades over the last few years. Face it guys: this system has three strong prospects at the top, four or five more who are interesting but have question marks, then a whole bunch of guys who are only marginal right now. This isn't an insult; there are lots of systems like this around, and the Mets are not the worst. I just don't understand why people get so upset about it. The Mets have problems, sure, but at least you are not rooting for the Minions of Evil like Yankees fans.
MPH Analysis: Its a good list overall, I agree with the placing of Nando at number 1, even though he is still very raw and far away, his upside is insane, look for him to start in St. Lucie this year. The next two I also agree with, Pelfrey has higher upside, but Humber is more ready to help the Mets right NOW. Pelfrey still needs to refine his offspeed stuff, but its not like he has to get himself a new pitching repetoire. Pelfreys fastball is special, and should let him become a very very good pitcher in the Bigs. Humber looks to be more of a #2, with #1 potential in his prime. If he does in fact get the 5th spot in the rotation, look for him to put up solid numbers, a nice k/9, some control and command issues, and an era around 4.10, he should also put up nice h/9 numbers as well. These two pitchers could anchor the top of the Mets rotation for a long time. Next we have a very toolsy outfielder in Gomez. He is very raw and doesnt have much plate discipline, but his speed, defense, and overall exciting play has got many people and scouts raving about him. He also has nice power potential and should fill out as he gets older, as hes only 20. Look for him to start in New Orleans next season. Next one might be a little high, but Tejesh has been following him since we drafted him, and he absolutly loves him. Like Sickels said, he is very projectible, and a lefty, which already gives him an advantage over our other lower level pitching prospects. Hes still very young and should be starting in St Lucie this season. The next guy on the list is someone who I actually think should be number 5, but its alright. Guerra is only 17 years old and had a great year in 2006, dominating players 2-3 years older than him in A ball. He projects to be a frontline starter, and has the upside to be an Ace. He should be starting out in St. Lucie, which should make that team very fun to follow in 2007. Next up we have the Mets first overall pick in the 2006 draft, Kevin Mulvey. After he signed, he started out in AA and started 3 games and pitched to a 1.35 era. He also pitched in the AFL, and looks to project out to a #3/#4 starter in the future. Look for him to start out in Binghamton(AA) next season. Next up we have Joe Smith, a side arming reliever who moved up pretty quickly. He dominated in Brooklyn, but struggled a bit in Binghamton. He struggles against lefties, but should become a decent reliever in the future. Look for him to start out in Binghamton this year. The next guy on the list is an MPH personal favorite, and someone who should be higher on the list IMO. You should know a lot about Carp already, and if you don't, look through our archives on this site and read up on some of the Carp articles we posted. He should start the year out in Binghamton. Rounding out the top 10 is the bull, Alay Soler. I think he was pretty good in his first few starts in the MLB, but the Red Sox and Yankee games ruined him. I still think he could be a solid reliever for us, because he does have good stuff.
Thats all for now, hope you enjoyed.