Prospect Focus: Lucas Duda

Splits courtesy www.minorleaguesplits.com

Lucas Duda is a 6'4/225 first baseman the Mets drafted in the 7th round (243rd overall) of the 2007 draft.

He got sporadic playing time in his freshman year at USC, only 77 ABs in 34 games. He hit just .208 with a .322 OBP and .299 SLG. We can throw those numbers out the window due to the lack of consistent PT.

In 2006, his sophomore season, he played everyday, getting 191 ABs in 56 games. He hit much better, .298/.391/.398, but with a decided lack of power. He only showed a 1/63.66 HR/AB rate, and had just 12 XBH in 191 ABs. He did, however, show a very good eye at the plate, with a 0.82352 BB/K ratio (walks per strikeout).

In 2007, Duda again played everyday, and hit .280/.378/.468, showing a burgeoning power stroke, increasing his HR/AB ratio to 1/26.57. He had 18 XBH in 186 ABs, with the increase in HR (4) and triples (2) driving his slugging higher. While in college, he had a 0.83333 BB/K ratio, virtually staying the same as in 2006.

In Brooklyn after getting drafted, Duda hit .299/.398/.462, vastly improving the number of doubles he hit. Duda hits lefty, and Keyspan park is death on left handed sluggers, so much so, that Mike Carp was sent to the GCL in 04, then Hagerstown in 05, skipping the deathly confines of Keyspan.

Duda, however, thrived at Keyspan. He hit 20 doubles, 3 triples and 5 homers in 248 ABs. While his BB/K ratio did decline slightly from his USC 07 season, from 0.83333 to 0.7347, it was more then offset by the 18 point increase in average.

Duda's Brooklyn splits are very interesting, as far as lefty/righty goes. Versus lefties, Duda hit .283/.377/.500/.877 with 7 2b and 1 HR in 46 ABs. He struck out 15 times and walked 6 times. Versus righties he batted .302/.401/.455/.856 with 13 2b, 3 3b and 4 HR in 202 ABs. He struck out 34 times and walked 30 times. We'll have to see if this trend continues at the higher levels, but so far, it is extremely promising. His K rate vs LHP was very high at .289, but the sample size (46 ABs) is too low to draw many conclusions. His K rate vs RHP was .151.

Duda's our 3rd best first base prospect, and 4th best corner infield prospect (3rd base is kind of filled for the foreseeable future). I would probably rank Duda somewhere between 9 and 15 on our prospect lists.

THE FUTURE: Duda should be opening his first full season in St. Lucie, manning first base for a completely new look Mets infield. Duda, at least so far in his pro career, has shown the ability to handle lefthanders. If this trend continues in St. Lucie, and Carp/Murphy scuffle in Binghamton vs LHP, Duda might vault all the way to the top spot in corner infielders. But that's a long long way off. For now, Duda fans should focus on his developing power, and his ability to control the strike zone.

UPDATE 2008: Lucas Duda started off the 2008 season with a bang in St. Lucie, hitting .330/.415/.447/.862 in April (34 for 103, 14 runs, 6 2b, 2 HR, 19 RBI, 14/25 BB/K), but from May 1st to July 31st, he struggled badly, hitting just .230/.333/.362/.695 (65 for 282, 28 runs, 16 2b, 3 3b, 5 HR, 33 RBI, 40/76 BB/K). He ended up bookending his season with solid months, hitting .286/.368/.449/.817 in August (28 for 98, 16 runs, 4 2b, 4 HR, 14 RBI, 12/28 BB/K).

Duda's overall line in 2008 wasn't all that bad (outside of the power numbers), .263/.358/.398/.755 (127 for 483, 58 runs, 26 2b, 3 3b, 11 HR, 66 RBI, 66/129 BB/K). Duda's K rate was vastly elevated from 2007, he struck out at a .267 clip, compared to the .198 clip he struck out at last season, and his BB/K is .5116, as compared to the .7347 at Brooklyn.

One of the biggest changes from his season in Brooklyn (and even Hawaii) is that he put up simply disasterous numbers vs LHP: .187/.281/.247/.527 (28 for 150, 11 runs, 4 2b, 3b, HR, 13 RBI, 18/55 BB/K), a 0.3273 BB/K ratio, and a K rate that is much much too high: .367. Of course, that means he's hitting very well against RHP, which he is: .297/.392/.465/.857 (99 for 333, 47 runs, 22 2b, 2 3b, 10 HR, 53 RBI, 48/74 BB/K), a BB/K ratio of .6486, and a much better K rate of .222.

THE NEW FUTURE: There has to be some consideration given to Duda's repeating St. Lucie, but a pretty good prediction would be that the Mets won't, and he'll be in Binghamton to open 2009. Duda's slipped from 3rd to possibly 5th or 6th on the depth chart at corner infielder, behind the Trinity of Binghamton, and maybe behind Ike Davis and/or Jefry Marte. He'll have to perform much better versus LHP to reclaim some of his glory, but he is already well behind the 8 ball, with, as I said, the Trinity well ahead of him on the depth charts. Duda's best bet to make the majors may well be in another organization, which is too bad, as I believe his bat is better then what we saw in 2008.