Friday, January 08, 2010

FINAL 2009 Prospect Rankings (Tejesh)

The numbers in paraenthesis are the genesis of the 2009 season, from my preseason 09 list (2/7/09), to the list prior to this one (8/18/09). See who gained/lost in my eyes. This will be my final 2009 ranking.

The lists were as follows: 2/7 (top 30), 5/17 (top 20), 6/6 (top 30), 8/18 (top 60), 1/8 (this one, written on 11/8 - top 20)

1. OF Fernando Martinez (1): Made his MLB debut, showed off some of the tools which have been talked about many times in scouting reports, plus some which weren't expected (good speed, good defense in CF). Was injured in a freak slip&fall in Milwaukee, posted a really good line in AAA. Should open 2010 back in Buffalo

2. RHSP Jenrry Mejia (9,4,4,2): Blew through St. Lucie, had mixed results in AA, and a poor line in the AFL (but his K/9 and GOFO was off the charts good in Zona). Should open 2010 back in Binghamton

3. SS Wilmer Flores (2,2,2,3): After posting a composite .307/.347/.468/.815 line over 280 ABs last year, some were expecting big things out of the 17/18 year old this season, but they didn't materialize, as he hit just .264/.305/.332/.637 over 488 ABs. He probably should repeat Savannah at age 18/19, but chances are he opens 2010 in St. Lucie

4. 1B Ike Davis (15,11,14,5): Davis shut me up something fierce this season, I'd made it very well known I did not like him one bit, but a composite .298/.381/.524/.906 line with 20 HR and 31 2b between St. Lucie and Binghamton vault him into the top 5 of Met prospects. He should open 2010 in Buffalo, after hitting .341/.394/.565/.958 in Arizona.

5. RHSP Brad Holt (5,5,5,4): Holt apparently is in the doghouse for skipping Instructs, but outside of the off the field stuff, his on the field performance left much to be desired. While he did post a 3.12 in St. Lucie, he struggled mightily in AA, with a 6.21 era, and just 45 Ks in 58 innings, after posting 54 Ks in 43.1 St. Lucie innings. His secondary pitches need improvement if he is to remain a starter. He should open 2010 back in Binghamton.

6. RHSP Kyle Allen (20,14,30,10): Allen isn't well known, but I predict that by this time next year, he will be, so while ranking him 6th is a reach right now, I like being ahead of the curve. Allen features a fastball in the 92-95 range, with a good low to mid 80s changeup, and a mid 80s slider. He posted a 3.45 in Savannah, but if you subtract out his April (7.47), his ERA plummets to 2.87 over 109.2 innings. He should open 2010 in St. Lucie, but there exists a good possibility he ends the year in Binghamton, then visits Arizona.

7. SS Reese Havens (7,6,6,7) Havens had a fine season in 2009, with a 247/361/422/784 line, supressed by a very low BABIP, in the pitcher friendly FSL. Havens began making the transition to 2b in Arizona, where he hit 368/478/658/1136 in 38 ABs, and should either be outright playing 2b in 2010, or flip-flopping there with Ruben Tejada (who shouldn't be in Buffalo).

8. OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis (UNR,UNR,17,11) Nieuwenhuis, until early July, was a disappointment, but from July 8th to September 2nd, he totally exploded, hitting .340/.411/.602/1.013 in 206 ABs, and earning a promotion to Binghamton, where he should spend most (if not all) of 2010 as a 22 year old. Nieuwenhuis is a 5 tool prospect, though you don't hear much about him, you will. During his torrid streak, his BB/K was a solid 24/48, even though his overall BB/K was nothing special.

9. LHSP Jon Niese (3,8,8,8) Niese posted a sub 1 era in Buffalo over a 8 start span, got promoted, was pitching well, them succumbed to the black death which afflicted so many other Mets in 2009. Featuring a refined arsenal, including a cutter, Niese looked poised to grab a permanent rotation spot and run with it, but it was not to be. He comes into 2010 (if 100% healthy) as the favorite for the 5th SP job.

10. C Josh Thole (8,7,7,6) Thole is as Thole does. A+, AA, MLB, VWL, it doesn't matter. Thole hits. The only question about him is defense, and he threw out ~30% of basestealers in AA this year, though at last check, he was 1 for 19 in the VWL. Thole, solely based on his defense, should open 2010 in Buffalo. It will be a rare case where whatever he does offensively will (or should) mean considerably less then what he does defensively.

11. RHSP Jeurys Familia (19,9,9,9)
12. SS Ruben Tejada (21,UNR,11,12)
13. RHSP Scott Moviel (12,17,15,24)
14. LHSP Robert Carson (14,10,10,13)
15. 3B Zach Lutz (UNR,UNR,26,14)
16. RHP Brant Rustich (22,3,3,21)
17. OF Cesar Puello (29,UNR,37,15)
18. LHSP Steven Matz (16)
19. LHSP Juan Urbina (17)
20. LHSP Zach Dotson (18)

1 comment:

  1. kirk over niese? seriously? why does j. marte drop so low? puello over him? he struck out a lot and didn't show j. marte's power. marte showed good power for a 17 year old (i think showed almost the same power that f. mart did at the same age/league). although thole has good discipline, pitchers will always pitch to contact with him because of his approach (doesn't look to drive the ball). he shouldn't be above familia as he has a better chance of being a good reliever than thole does of even being a good mlb backup. you don't think aderlin rodriguez should be above zach dotson? he was a top signee who played well and you're going to take 3 newly signed guys over him? (urbina is a diff case).