Friday, March 06, 2009

MPH System Audit III - Part III (Middle Infielders)

Middle Infielders

1. Wilmer Flores 8/6/91 (17.5) R/R (R Kingsport .310/.352/.490/.842, 76 for 245, 36 runs, 12 2b, 4 3b, 8 HR, 41 RBI, 12/28 BB/K, A Savannah 2 for 5, run, 2 Ks, A- Brooklyn .267/.290/.300/.590, 8 for 30, 3 runs, 2b, RBI, 1/7 BB/K)

Total 2008 Stats: .307/.347/.468/.815, 86 for 280, 40 runs, 13 2b, 4 3b, 8 HR, 42 RBI, 13/37 BB/K, 2/3 SBs, .132 K rate, .3514 BB/K ratio

Wilmer. Flores. Really what else can you say? He was signed out of Venezuela in 2007 for $750,000, and his first assignment was the rookie level Appy League at the age of 16, 2 years younger then high school seniors. And what did he proceed to do? Absolutely rip the shit out of the league, OPSing over .900 for most of the season before a little slump dropped him down to a still insane .310/.352/.490/.842 line in 245 ABs. During the season, he turned 17. Yes, 17. Wilmer, even on an insanely fast track, is at a minimum of 2.5 seasons away, and more conservatively would be 4 seasons away, but he's already turned many heads with his performance in his rookie season.

Wilmer Flores hit the scene running, and didn't let up for a second, compiling an unreal overall line for a 16/17 year old who played stateside. Flores has a very fluid swing which generates good bat speed and power. Unlike most hitters his age (or really, 3-4 years older), Flores possesses both pull power and a very good opposite field stroke. He did struggle some in the NYPL versus advanced breaking pitches, but considering his age, this is not a concern at all. A major plus for Flores is that despite posting some very very good power numbers, he also hit for a very high average and displayed very good plate discipline. All this bodes well as he prepares for a full season assignment in Savannah.

Flores is an offense first shortstop, but he does have a plus arm and good hands, making him a candidate to be a good defender in time. He needs to work on his range and throwing motion, but as he is still extremely young, there is plenty of time for him to improve defensively. Flores' ceiling is pretty much sky high. At 16/17 years old, he torched a league full of first year draftees, some of them having as much as 6 years experience on him. He should be opening 2009 in Savannah at age 17, and it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility to see him in St. Lucie before his 18th birthday. Defensively, Flores profiles in a corner, 3b, 1b, lf or rf. His strong arm would be wasted at 1b, so perhaps the Mets will move him to RF, down the road. Flores should spend 2 additional seasons in the system after 2009, making his projected MLB debut in 2012 at age 20.

2. Reese Havens 10/20/86 (22.25) L/R (South Carolina .359/.486/.645/1.131, 89 for 248, 76 runs, 13 2b, 2 3b, 18 HR, 57 RBI, 58/44 BB/K, A- Brooklyn .247/.340/.471/.811, 21 for 85, 13 runs, 6 2b, 2 3b, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 11/27 BB/K, 3/4 SBs)

Total 2008 Stats: .330/.450/.601/1.051, 110 for 333, 89 runs, 19 2b, 4 3b, 21 HR, 68 RBI, 69/71 BB/K, .213 K rate, .9718 BB/K ratio

Havens was drafted by the Mets with their second pick in the first round, 22nd overall, out of South Carolina University. After signing, he was sent to Brooklyn, but struggled with injuries, accumulating 85 ABs off and on. When he was on the field, he mostly Dhed, and showed off good power for a lefty in that enviroment (remember, Keyspan = death for LH hitters).

Havens, who missed portions of the season with various injuries, has surprisingly good power for a middle infielder, with 11 XBH in just 85 ABs for Brooklyn. Havens was a very aggressive swinger while in Brooklyn, but that does not mean he expanded the strike zone. His BB/K ratio was a solid .4074, but his K rate was exceptionally high, at .318. OF course, this could be explained by his season, which was a series of fits and starts.

Havens is definitely an offense first middle infielder, as he doesn't boast blazing speed (3/4 SBs in Brooklyn), and is average at best on defense. Some people have theorized the Mets may move him to catcher, but that was decidely something the Red Sox were thinking, NOT something the Mets are even entertaining. Rather, a move to 2b may be in the offing for Havens. Havens projects to hit between .280 and .310 with 10 to 25 HR power, more then enough for ss or 2b. He should open the 2009 season in St. Lucie with a midyear callup to Binghamton certainly in the cards. Figure 1.5 more seasons in the minors after that, and you're looking at a midyear 2011 callup for Havens.

3. Greg Veloz 6/3/88 (20.67) S/R (A Savannah .286/.339/.402/.742, 130 for 455, 25 2b, 5 3b, 6 HR, 52 RBI, 32/93 BB/K, 28/40 SBs, A+ St. Lucie .234/.298/.247/.544, 18 for 77, 8 runs, 2b, 4 RBI, 7/20 BB/K, 1/3 SBs HWL Honolulu 18 for 87, 10 runs, 2 2b, 7 RBI, 9/27 BB/K, 2/4 SBs, .207/.281/.230/.511)

Total 2008 Stats: .268/.326/.359/.685, 166 for 619, 86 runs, 28 2b, 5 3b, 6 HR, 63 RBI, 31/44 SBs, 48/140 BB/K, .226 K rate, .3429 BB/K ratio

Veloz was signed out of the Dominican Republic and assigned to the DSL Mets. He was one of 2005's top 10 International prospects. In 2006, Veloz hit .262 for the DSL team with an OBP of .366.

Veloz split 2007 between full season Savannah and short season Kingsport, enduring a miserable 230 AB introduction to the US before earning a reprieve in Kingsport, where he showed off his 5 tools.

Veloz opened in Savannah, and as I said, he endured a miserable half season, hitting just .171/.243/.235/.478 (40 for 234, 20 runs, 7 2b, 3b, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 23/73 BB/K, 15/19 SBs), a .3151 BB/K ratio, and a very high .312 K rate, along with a 78.94% success rate on SBs. Batting righty (vs LHP), he hit .200/.302/.273/.575 (11 for 55, 2b, HR, 8/21 BB/K), a .3010 BB/K ratio and an absurdly high .382 K rate. Batting lefty (against RHP), Veloz hit .160/.220/.211/.431 (28 for 175, 4 2b, 3b, 14/50 BB/K), a .2800 BB/K ratio and a still high .285 K rate.

After putting up ... extremely inadequate numbers in Savannah, Veloz was moved down to rookie ball, the Appy League. In Kingsport, Veloz performed immensely better, and showed off hints of his 5 tool potential, hitting .271/.344/.450/.793 (70 for 258, 43 runs, 13 2b, 9 3b, 5 HR, 28 RBI, 26/62 BB/K, 18/25 SBs), with a much improved .4194 BB/K ratio a .240 K rate, and a 72% success rate on SBs. Unlike his stint in Savannah, in Kingsport he hit better against RHP. Batting lefty, he hit .279/.356/.469/.825 (50 for 179, 8 2b, 7 3b, 4 HR, 20/45 BB/K), with a .4444 BB/K ratio and a .251 K rate. Versus LHP (batting righty), Veloz hit .243/.309/.405/.714 (18 for 74, 5 2b, 2 3b, HR, 6/17 BB/K), a .3529 BB/K ratio and a .229 K rate.

Overall in 2007, Veloz hit .224/.296/.348/.644 (110 for 492, 63 runs, 20 2b, 10 3b, 7 HR, 42 RBI, 49/135 BB/K, 33/44 SBs), with a .3629 BB/K ratio, a .274 K rate, and a 75% success rate on SBs. He hit roughly equal from both sides of the plate, hitting .225/.306/.349/.655 (29 for 129, 6 2b, 2 3b, 2 HR, 14/38 BB/K) from the right side and .220/.290/.342/.632 (78 for 354, 12 2b, 8 3b, 5 HR, 34/95 BB/K) from the left side.

Veloz started off the 2008 season right back in Savannah, and got off to a rough start, hitting .214/.274/.306/.580 in April, but from May 1st to his promotion to St. Lucie, he performed very well (most of it done as a 19 year old), hitting .307/.358/.430/.788 (110 for 358, 55 runs, 21 2b, 4 3b, 5 HR, 43 RBI, 17/26 SBs, 26/73 BB/K). Overall, though, he hit .286/.339/.402/.742 (130 for 455, 68 runs, 25 2b, 5 3b, 6 HR, 52 RBI, 32/93 BB/K, 28/40 SBs), with a .3441 BB/K ratio and a vastly improved .204 K rate, along with a 70% success rate on SBs.

Veloz hit just .238/.288/.331/.619 batting righty (31 for 130, 7 2b, 3b, HR, 6/22 BB/K), a .2723 BB/K ratio, with a .169 K rate. The K rate is very encouraging, since with Veloz' speed, if he's making consistent contact on the ground, he can potentially beat those grounders out for hits. Against RHP (batting lefty), Veloz hit well, .312/.366/.437/.803 (102 for 327, 18 2b, 4 3b, 5 HR, 26/70), for a .3714 BB/K, and a .214 K rate.

THE FUTURE: Veloz is in St. Lucie right now, and while there IS a glut of middle infield prospects projected to be ready for the level next year (Veloz, Ruben Tejada, Reese Havens, Juan Lagares, some would say Wilmer Flores (I wouldn't)) - I would expect Veloz to open in St. Lucie as the everyday 2b.

Veloz had a "breakout" 2008 season, comparitively speaking. At the very least, you can say that he showed off the tools which have many prospect fans salivating over his potential. Despite some rather pedestrian numbers on the surface, Veloz flashed an ability to hit for average and hit for power throughout the season. From May 1st to August 10th, Veloz hit .307/.358/.430/.788 with 30 XBH in 358 ABs, and a 26/73 BB/K ratio (.3562), as opposed to his overall season line of .286/.339/.402/.742 (in Savannah), and a BB/K of .3441 (32/93).

Veloz does not project as a .300 hitter, but he has a short stroke which generates good line drive gap power, and he has the speed to turn doubles into triples. Veloz is a switch hitter, but is much more proficient from the left side, hitting 70 points higher. Veloz has good speed and explosiveness, which lead to 29 SBs this season, but he needs to work on his stealing rate, as he was thrown out 14 times (a 67% success rate). There is some question within the organization as to whether he will remain at 2b, or like Sean Henry before him, move to the outfield. While he did significantly cut down his error total in 2008 (19) from 2007 (32), but he still needs to work on his aggresiveness in this area, he often times will let the ball play him.

Despite a semi-breakout season, much of Veloz' game is still projection, which is clouded by uncertainty about his future position. With the logjam of middle infielders projected in St. Lucie, there is a possibility Veloz will either be jumped to Binghamton (a mistake), or begin breaking in an outfielder's glove (which would be a good idea). We'll say he begins in St. Lucie and spends the majority of there, and then spends a year per level, making his MLB debut in 2012.

4. Ruben Tejada 9/1/89 (19.42) R/R (A+ St. Lucie .229/.293/.296/.588, 114 for 497, 55 runs, 19 2b, 4 3b, 2 HR, 37 RBI, 41/77 BB/K, 8/13 SBs, HWL Honolulu 20 for 86, 14 runs, 3 2b, 3b, 10 RBI, 7/14 BB/K, 2/4 SBs, .233/.284/.291/.575)

Total 2008 Stats: .230/.291/.295/.586, 134 for 583, 69 runs, 22 2b, 5 3b, 2 HR, 47 RBI, 10/17 SBs, 48/91 BB/K, .156 K rate, .5275 BB/K ratio,

The Mets signed Tejada out of Panama in the summer of 2006, and he began the 07 season in the Venezuelan Summer League, but performed at such a high level that the Mets secured a visa for him and brought him stateside, assigning him to the rookie level Gulf Coast League, where his power faltered, as did his average and SBs, but his excellent plate discipline continued. Combined over the two levels, Tejada hit .324/.434/.423/.857 in 241 ABs. Considering the Mets aggressive nature in pushing prospects, we forecast Tejada would compete/open in Savannah for the 2008 season.

Well, the Mets outdid themselves with Tejada, idiotically starting him in St. Lucie, where he naturally proceeded to hit very little, just .229/.293/.296/.588 in 497 ABs. Despite being jumped insanely like he was, Tejada had outstanding plate discipline numbers, with a low .155 K rate, and a very good .5324 BB/K ratio, especially considering he was 18 in the FSL after spending 2007 in the VSL/GCL. We fervently hope Tejada repeats the FSL in 2009.

Tejada was severely rushed in 2008, making a 3 level jump from the GCL directly to the FSL, skipping the Appy, NYP and Sally Leagues, and as such, several "flaws" emerged in his game, most of which are completely understandable given his age in respect to his level. He predictably struggled for most of the season, but did put together a very impressive stretch of 77 ABs in June where he hit .403/.452/.519/.972. Overall, he struggled against advanced breaking balls and offspeed pitches in general, often times getting out in front and popping them up. He is a line drive hitter who won't generate much power, but as he learns to hit advanced pitching, should hit for a high average and have a good OBP as a result of his advanced eye at the plate. On the bases, as with his hitting, Tejada is raw but has promise. Consider in 2007 he swiped 18 bases in 24 tries, and this year he swiped just 8 in 13 attempts. Tejada, despite committing 30 errors this season, and 21 the year prior, defense is Tejada's steadiest asset right now. He has good range to both sides, and an average arm which projects to improve as he adds muscle mass.

Tejada is still looked upon as the 2nd best SS prospect in the organization (behind Wilmer, of course) - and his poor showing in the FSL did nothing to diminish his star with those inside (or outside) the organization. Tejada should begin back in St. Lucie for 2009, and then ascend a level per season, making his debut in 2012.

5. Jose Coronado 4/13/86 (22.83) S/R (AA Binghamton .260/.335/.314/.649, 132 for 507, 56 runs, 24 2b, HR, 39 RBI, 57/79 BB/K, 9/12 SBs, VWL Caribes 28 for 91, 10 runs, 4 2b, 2 3b, HR, 7 RBI, 9/18 BB/K, .308/.373/.429/.801)

Total 2008 Stats: .268/.377/.331/.708, 160 for 598, 66 runs, 28 2b, 2 3b, 2 HR, 46 RBI, 9/12 SBs, 66/97 BB/K, .162 K rate, .6804 BB/K ratio

The New York Mets signed shortstop Jose Coronado as an International free agent out of Venezuela back in August of 2003. He started him Mets career with the VSL team, and batted .242/.351/.363 in 34 games. Jose made his stateside debut in 2005 with the GCL Mets, where in 11 games, he proved he outclassed the league, hitting .404/.429/.468/.897 (19 for 47, 9 runs, 2b, 3b, 4 RBI, 1/9 BB/K, 1/2 SBs). Obviously, in such a small sample size, subsets of said sample size would be equally tiny (14 ABs vs LHP, 33 vs RHP), and offer up no real statistical meaning.

Coronado spent the bulk of the 2005 season with rookie level Kingsport, where he hit .266/.382/.338/.720 (37 for 139, 24 runs, 5 2b, 3b, HR, 8 RBI, 6/10 SBs, 22/27 BB/K), with a very good .8148 BB/K ratio, and an equally good .194 K rate. He hit .324/.432/.432/.864 vs LHP (12 for 37, 2 2b, 3b, 6/7 BB/K), with a .8571 BB/K ratio, and a .189 K rate. Against RHP, he hit .260/.374/.317/.691 (27 for 104, 3 2b, HR, 16/20 BB/K), a BB/K ratio of 0.80, with a K rate of .192.

Coronado ended his 2005 season with an 18 game cameo in Hagerstown, where he struggled mightily, hitting just .225/.295/.282/.577 (16 for 71, 4 runs, 2 2b, 3b, 4 RBI, 7/17 BB/K), with a dramatically lowered BB/K ratio of .4118, and a correspondingly raised K rate of .239. He had just 14 ABs against LHP, and 55 vs RHP, again, very small sample sizes which do not have any statistical value.

Despite his struggles in Hagerstown, the Mets aggresively pushed Coronado to St. Lucie for his age 20 season, where he predictably struggled, hitting just .226/.283/.278/.561 (123 for 544, 61 runs, 20 2b, 4 3b, 37 RBI, 41/119 BB/K), with a very bad (for a non power hitter) .3445 BB/K ratio, and an equally high .218 K rate.

Coronado hit just .208/.282/.291/.573 vs LHP (31 for 148, 8 2b, 2 3b, 14/35 BB/K), with a .4000 BB/K ratio, and a .236 K rate. Against RHP, he hit .233/.283/.275/.558 (93 for 400, 13 2b, 2 3b, 27/86 BB/K), a woeful .3140 BB/K ratio, and a .215 K rate.

Despite this, the Mets saw fit to push Coronado to Binghamton for the 2007 season, where of course, he struggled even more, hitting just .212/.284/.257/.541 (65 for 307, 31 runs, 7 2b, 2 3b, HR, 15 RBI, 31/84 BB/K, 7/10 SBs), with a .3690 BB/K ratio, and a ridiculously high K rate of .274. Coronado hit equally poorly from both sides of the plate, hitting .212/.281/.225/.506 vs LHP (batting righty; 17 for 80, 2b, 8/22 BB/K), with a .3636 BB/K ratio, and a .275 K rate. Against RHP, batting lefty, Coronado hit .217/.288/.261/.549 (49 for 229, 5 2b, 3b, HR, 22/60 BB/K), with a .3667 BB/K ratio and a .265 K rate.

Thankfully, the Mets let Coronado repeat AA in 2008 with much "better", though still severely below average, results. Coronado hit .260/.335/.314/.649 (132 for 507, 56 runs, 24 2b, HR, 39 RBI, 57/79 BB/K, 9/12 SBs), with vastly improved strize zone and plate discipline. His BB/K ratio was .7215, while his K rate plunged to .156 from 2007's rate of .274. Coronado hit a respectable .285/.333/.370/.703 vs LHP (47 for 165, 25 runs, 11 2b, HR, 18 RBI, 12/27 BB/K), with a .4444 BB/K ratio, and a very good .164 K rate. Against RHP, he hit .249/.336/.287/.622 (85 for 342, 31 runs, 13 2b, 21 RBI, 45/52 BB/K, 7/9 SBs), with an excellent .8654 BB/K ratio, and a very good K rate of .152.

THE FUTURE: Coronado is likely ticketted for AAA Buffalo for his age 23 season, right in line age/level wise for a prospect. However, he didn't hit for any power in Binghamton this year (54 IsoP), and that does need to improve somewhat, or else he needs to become a .300 hitter while maintaining his newfound BB/K ratio. Contrary to popular belief, I do not hate the player Luis Castillo was (I hate the player he is now), which is probably Coronado's ceiling.

Coronado made good strides with his offense last season, but he was coming off a very low base. His winterball showing was decidedly positive (.308/.373/.429/.801 in 91 ABs), and sets him up well for his first taste of AAA in 2009. However, despite the offensive gains of 2008, it will be his glove which earns him a shot at the majors, not his bat. He did vastly improve his plate discipline in 2008, resulting in more walks, less Ks, and a much better average. Coronado has very good speed but shies away from using it on the bases, something he needs to do to add to his limited offensive prowess.

Coronado's best trait is his glove, due to his speed, he has excellent range to both sides, and a fantastic arm which enables him to make throws other SS can't dream of. However, this is a double edged sword, as he sometimes tries to make ill advised throws, and can be overtly aggresive defensively. Coronado's lack of offense has all but ended any possibility of him earning a starting job with the Mets, but he could be a valuable defensive replacement type in the future, perhaps here, perhaps elsewhere. It is also possible he could see the majors this season if Luis Castillo falters (as many expect), and the Mets deem Alex Cora incompetent to start everyday at 2b. As mentioned earlier, he will open in Buffalo this season, and conservatively should be in contention for a bench job for the 2010 season.

6. Juan Lagares 3/17/89 (19.92) R/R (A Savannah .254/.285/.337/.622, 46 for 181, 14 runs, 9 2b, 2 HR, 17 RBI, 8/28 BB/K, 3/7 SBs, A- Brooklyn .250/.280/.389/.669, 18 for 72, 8 runs, 7 2b, HR, 7 RBI, 1/10 BB/K, 1/4 SBs)

Total 2008 Stats: .253/.284/.352/.635, 64 for 253, 22 runs, 16 2b, 3 HR, 24 RBI, 9/38 BB/K, 4/11 SBs, .150 K rate, .2368 BB/K ratio

Lagares was signed by the Mets in 2005 and played for the DSL team in 2006, getting into 57 games and hitting .255/.339/.412. For the 2007 season, Lagares opened in the full season Sally League, and struggled mightily, barely managing to stay above the Mendoza line (.210/.262/.317 in 281 ABs). His defense also proved to be very raw, as evidenced by his staggering 40 errors in just 83 games played.

Lagares has spent so little time on a baseball field the past two seasons (just 514 ABs in 2 seasons), that alot of his potential is just that, potential. Despite boasting just a career .230 batting average, he exhbits a line drive stroke which is good enough to generate power from gap to gap. As with most kids from the Latin American market, he is a firm believer in the mantra that "you don't walk your way off the island". Despite the aggresive nature of his game, he's only struck out 102 times in those 514 ABs, a very good .198 K rate, though his walk rate (27) leaves much to be desired. He is tall and thin (6'1/175), so as he fills out, he should lose a step or two on the bases, and compensate with additional power, eventually settling in as a 6 hitter. Lagares' defense is wildly inconsistent, and many people think he will eventually be moved to the outfield, and with the glut of middle infielders for the Savannah/St. Lucie squads this season, that move could happen as early as spring training 2009.

We'll be conservative with our estimate of his time through the system, and say he needs 3 1/2 more seasons before breaking into the majors in mid 2012.

7. Emmanuel Garcia 3/4/86 (22.92) L/R (AA Binghamton) .243/.307/.319/.626, 89 for 367, 51 runs, 12 2b, 2 3b, 4 HR, 40 RBI, 34/83 BB/K, 17/26 SBs, .226 K rate, .4096 BB/K ratio)

Emmanuel Garcia was signed as an undrafted FA in 2004 out of Canada, and made his pro debut the next season in the rookie level Gulf Coast League, where he hit .339/.412/.409/.821 (63 for 186, 43 runs, 7 2b, 2 HR, 30 RBI, 21/36 BB/K, 17/18 SBs). Garcia's BB/K ratio was .5833, while his K rate was .194. Unfortunatley, I do not have his L/R splits from 2005.

In 2006, Garcia spent the bulk of the season with the Kingsport Mets of the rookie Appy League, where he hit .277/.362/.366/.728 (56 for 202, 35 runs, 5 2b, 2 3b, 3 HR, 25 RBI, 27/41 BB/K, 19/25 SBs). Overall, his BB/K ratio was .6585, a good improvement from the GCL, while his K rate decreased slightly to .203. He hit markedly better vs RHP (44 for 144, 5 2b, 2 3b, 2 HR, 23/26 BB/K, .306/.401/.431/.832) then LHP (12 for 58, 4/15 BB/K, .207/.258/.207/.465). His BB/K was .8846 vs RHP and only .2667 vs LHP, while his K rate was .181 vs RHP and a too high .257 vs LHP. Garcia got a brief 50 AB callup to the Brooklyn Cyclones of the low A NY Penn League, but the sample sizes in the splits are too small to draw any conclusions. He hit .240/.316/.240/.556 in 50 ABs (12 for 50, 5/13 BB/K).

In 2007, Garcia was promoted, as a 21 year old, to the St. Lucie Mets in the high A Florida State League, where he predictably struggled to hit for power or a particularly high average. He hit .257/.336/.300/.636 (130 for 506, 65 runs, 12 2b, 5 3b, 31 RBI, 62/108 BB/K), for a .5741 BB/K ratio, and a .213 K rate. What's extremely impressive about him is, in 2006 between Kingsport (a ROOKIE league) and Brooklyn (short season A ball), he struck out at a .211 rate (virtually no change). So the jump all the way to high A did not result in a higher strikeout rate. Also, this season, his BB/K ratio was 0.5741 (dividing BBs by Ks), while last year, it was 0.5926, so he did not worsen significantly there, either. Again, very impressive jumping 2 leagues the way he did.

His splits in St. Lucie as far as lefty/righty show that he hit marginally better versus LHP. He hit .271/.342/.321/.663 vs LHP, with 7 2b in 140 ABs, and a 15/31 BB/K ratio (0.4839), while hitting .251/.334/.292/.626 vs RHP, with 5 2b and 5 3b in 366 ABs, and a 47/77 BB/K ratio (0.6104). However, from June 1st to August 31st, he hit .285/.361/.342/.703. As you can see, the only thing "holding him back" is a decided lack of power. He did not hit 1 homer in 488 ABs at St. Lucie.While I do not have his splits during his hot streak, you can probably add 20-30 points to each category and be fairly safe, as a guesstimate.

THE FUTURE: Garcia, knowing the Mets, will be in Binghamton next season. However, I would give him 6 weeks in St. Lucie, let him really tear it apart, then promote him. It wouldn't hurt his plate discipline, either, to slow down his trek through the system. Garcia's ceiling is probably comparable to a Luis Castillo type, someone who won't hit for a whole lot (if any) power, but should hit alot of doubles (which would've been singles) and triples (which should've been doubles), and steal you quite a few bases.

UPDATE 2008: Garcia has spent the entire season in Binghamton (at least the non Olympic portion of it), and as we again predicted, he struggled mightily the first half of the season. Through the first two months of the season, he hit a miserable .217/.312/.251/.564 (39 for 179, 30 runs, 4 2b, 3b, 15 RBI, 9/13 SBs, 24/47 BB/K). His BB/K ratio is .5106, while his K rate had ballooned to .263.

However, after that 2 month adjustment period, Garcia's turned it on. From June 1st to July 27th (the day he left to join Team Canada), Garcia's hit .285/.322/.424/.746 (45 for 158, 18 runs, 8 2b, 3b, 4 HR, 23 RBI, 8/13 SBs, 9/27 BB/K). His BB/K ratio deflated to .3333, but his K rate also dropped markedly, to .171, the lowest of his career. However, the additional power has come at the expense of his plate discipline, as in the first 2 months, his IsoD was 95, and in the time since, his IsoD is 37. It is unknown if he will resume playing in the minor leagues once he returns from Bejing.

As in past seasons, Garcia's L/R splits are skewed to RHP, but this season is it a much closer differential. Garcia is hitting .238/.304/.337/.640 (24 for 101, 14 runs, 3 2b, 2 3b, HR, 11 RBI, 8/24 BB/K, 5/5 SBs) vs LHP, with a .3333 BB/K ratio and .238 K rate. Versus RHP, Garcia's hitting .254/.322/.331/.652 (60 for 236, 34 runs, 9 2b, 3 HR, 27 RBI, 25/50 BB/K, 12/21 SBs), with a .5000 BB/K ratio and .212 K rate.

Overall, Garcia is batting .249/.316/.332/.649 (84 for 337, 48 runs, 12 2b, 2 3b, 4 HR, 38 RBI, 33/74 BB/K, 17/26 SBs), with a .4459 BB/K ratio (the lowest of his career), and a .220 K rate (conversely, the highest of his career). However, as you've seen, much as he did last season, he is turning his season around in the 2nd half.

Garcia's gotten 1106 ABs in his minor league career, with a career .259/.334/.322/.656 line (286 for 1106, 31 2b, 9 3b, 7 HR, 127/239 BB/K), he's hit .237/.306/.291/.597 (76 for 320, 10 2b, 2 3b, HR, 29/76 BB/K) vs LHP, and .267/.346/.335/.681 (210 for 786, 21 2b, 7 3b, 6 HR, 98/163 BB/K) vs RHP.

THE NEW FUTURE: Here's hoping the Mets will allow him to open the 2009 season in Binghamton before pushing him to AAA (whereever it is). With so many high ceiling middle infielders now pushing through the system, Garcia's margin for error is slim to none. He *should* begin back in Binghamton, but knowing the Mets, he'll be in Syracuse (or whereever AAA ends up at).

8. Alonzo Harris 1/16/89 (20.04) R/R (R GCL .308/.379/.510/.889, 32 for 104, 23 runs, 6 2b, 5 HR, 10 RBI, 9/23 BB/K, 7/9 SBs, .222 K rate, .3913 BB/K ratio)

Harris was drafted in the 39th round of the 2007 draft, where as a senior he hit As a senior at McComb High this season, Harris batted .540 with a 1.081 SLG (25 singles, 11 home runs, 11 doubles, and 3 triples), along with 45 RBI, 30 SBs and 60 runs. Harris signed too late to play in the 2007 season, so the 08 season was his rookie year, and he had one of the best (non IFA) rookie campaigns in the system, hitting .308/.379/.510/.889 in 104 ABs in the GCL.

9. Miguel Tejada 11/11/90 (18.21) R/R (R GCL .220/.275/.250/.525, 22 for 100, 8 runs, 3 2b, 7 RBI, 6/37 BB/K, 2/3 SBs, .370 K rate, .1622 BB/K ratio)

Tejada was one of several International Free Agent signings by the Mets in the 2007 period, but he doesn't have nearly the hype of the Big Three. He debuted stateside in 2008 and struggled, OPSing .525 in the GCL.

10. Hector Pellot 2/8/87 (22) R/R (A+ St. Lucie .165/.250/.188/.438, 14 for 85, 11 runs, 2 2b, 4 RBI, 8/23 BB/K, 1/4 SBs, .271 K rate, .3478 BB/K ratio)

The Mets drafted Pellot in the 4th round of the 2005 draft out of Puerto Rico. In 2006, Pellot played for Hagerstown of the South Atlantic League, and put together a complete disaster, batting .189/.292/.259/.551. A repeat of the level in 2007, this time in Savannah, produced sharply better results, a .274/.344/.381/.725 line. The strikeouts remain an issue for Pellot, as does the lack of any appreciable power. Pellot should open the 2008 season in St. Lucie, where he ended the 07 season.

Pellot did open in St. Lucie, but he lasted just a month, 85 ABs, before missing the vast majority of the season with a hip injury, he last appeared in a game on May 2nd.

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