MPH System Audit III - Part VI (SPs 12-22)

Starting Pitchers

12. John Holdzkom 10/19/87 (21.29) R/R (A Savannah 2-3, 5.89 era, 20 G, 5 GS, 47.1 IP, 45 H, 40/31 R/ER, HR, 45/56 BB/K, 1.70 GO/FO, .246 BAA, 1.90 WHIP, R Kingsport 3-1, 3.66 era, 8 G, 7 GS, 39.1 IP, 38 H, 19/16 R/ER, 3 HR, 12/44 BB/K, 3.44 GO/FO, .257 BAA, 1.27 WHIP)

Total 2008 Stats: 5-4, 4.88 era, 28 G, 12 GS, 86.2 IP, 83 H, 59/47 R/ER, 4 HR, 57/100 BB/K, 2.30 GO/FO, .251 BAA, 1.62 WHIP

Holdzkom was drafted in the 4th round, 124th overall, in the 2006 draft. He spent a miserable rookie season in the GCL, compiling a 2-5, 7.71 era in 23.1 innings (16/2 G/GS). His season was marred by massive control issues, he walked 20 in those 23.1 innings. Holdzkom didn't pitch much in 2007 for a variety of reasons, including a suspension for trashing his hotel room.

2008 was really a tale of two seasons for the 6'7/225 righty. The first one was a relief season spent in misery at Savannah, where he compiled a pitiful 8.31 era in 15 outings spanning 21.2 innings. The other was brought about by a demotion to Kingsport, and a conversion to the starting rotation. After an excellent adaptation in Kingsport, Holdzkom brought that to Savannah, where he put up a very good 3.86 era in 5 starts, ending the season with his best professional outing, a 7 inning 2 hitter. Holdzkom remains on pace age/level wise, he will spend all of the upcoming season at age 21, likely opening in Savannah.

Oh yeah - he's Insane in the Membrane.

13. Nathan Vineyard 10/3/88 (20.33) L/L (A Savannah 0-2, 14.63 era, 2 GS, 8 IP, 13 H, 13 ER, HR, 6/3 BB/K, 1.22 GO/FO, .382 BAA, 2.38 WHIP)

The Mets selected Vineyard in the first round, with their 47th pick in the 2007 draft out of Woodland High School in Georgia, where as a senior, he put up these numbers as a senior: 9-3, 1.19 era, 12 GS, 6 CG, 70.2 IP, 39 H, 12 BBs, 130 Ks; .429/.547/.714, 13 2b, 3b, 3 HR, 22 RBI, 22/7 BB/K. He was sent to the rookie level GCL, where he struggled, but did register more then a K per inning. Given the Mets aggressive policy with prospects, it wouldn't be shocking to see Vineyard in the Sally League at some point in 2008 (either starting there, or ending up there).

Vineyard opened the 08 season in Savannah, but lasted just 2 starts before he suffered a left shoulder strain in mid April and had season ending shoulder surgery on May 9th.

Vineyard's fastball is in the low 90s, but he can touch 93 when he needss to. He can locate the pitch down in the strike zone and both sides of the plate with tailing movement. Only 19 years old, he still does have potential to add a few MPH on his fastball, which would turn it into a trus plus pitch. Vineyard's best pitch is his devastating three-quarters slider which he throws in the mid 80s. It has massive break that tails hard down and away to left-handers, dives under the bats of right-handers, and serves as his finishing pitch. He also throws a developing curveball which is in the 76-79 range, and a circle change, in the same range. His change is his third best pitch. Right now, Vineyard keeps the ball down with his full compliment of pitches, pounding the strike zone with his fastball and changeup before finishing hitters off with his slider. He only walked 1 batter every 3 innings, and with further refinement of his pitches, that rate should only improve. As he gets older and his pitches become even finer, he may become more of a strikeout pitcher thanks to his growing velocity combined with his tremendous slider and improving changeup.

Update 3/28/09: Vineyard apparently has not shown up to spring training in Port St. Lucie, so right now his status within the organization is very much up in the air.

14. Tobi Stoner 12/3/84 (24.16) S/R (A+ St. Lucie 1-5, 2.60 era, 9 GS, 52 IP, 46 H, 17/15 R/ER, 3 HR, 9/48 BB/K, 1.10 GO/FO, .238 BAA, 1.06 WHIP, AA Binghamton 4-6, 4.33 era, 15 GS, 79 IP, 80 H, 39/38 R/ER, 7 HR, 29/59 BB/K, 0.82 GO/FO, .267 BAA, 1.38 WHIP, AFL Peoria Saguaros 2-0, 3.66 era, 11 G, 19.2 IP, 17 H, 8 ER, 7/15 BB/K, 1.22 WHIP, .227 BAA, 1.00 GO/FO, PRWL Mayaguez 2-1, 1.16 era, 6/5 G/GS, 31 IP, 25 H, 5/4 R/ER, 7/20 BB/K)

Total 2008 Stats: 9-12, 3.22 era, 41/29 G/GS, 181.2 IP, 168 H, 52/142 BB/K, 1.21 WHIP

Stoner was drafted in the 16th round out of Davis and Elkins College, in 2006, where as a senior, he went 8-6 with a 2.90 era in 18 games, 12 of which were starts. In 90 innings, he allowed 85 hits while walking 16 and striking out 79.

He should start the 2007 season as a 23 year old with Savannah, although an outside shot of him opening in St. Lucie exists.

Stoner did open in Savannah, but he ended in St. Lucie, with mixed results. He performed very well on a very young and inexperienced Savannah team, but struggled upon his promotion to the higher league. We would expect Stoner to open 2008 back in St. Lucie, with a mid-season promotion to Binghamton likely.

Which is exactly what happened.

Taking out Stoner's worst AA start, his numbers improve to 4-5, 3.71 era, 77.2 IP, 71 H, 29/58 BB/K. If you remove his 4 start introduction to AA, and his worst AA outing, you're left with 4-3, 2.62 era, 10 GS, 58.1 IP, 43 H, 17 ER, 3 HR, 23/41 BB/K. Obviously that's purely unscientific, and pretty selective, removing 1/3 of his AA starts, but I think it's pretty important in this case, much as it is in Jon Niese's, to show Stoner did not struggle in AA, despite the mid 4 era.

Stoner throws 5 pitches. A 2 and 4 seam fastball, a slider, curve and changeup. His 2 seamer is in the 88-91 range, while he can get his 4 seamer up into the mid 90s. He made great strides this past season with his fastball(s) command, especially pitching to contact with his 2 seamer. Stoner's best pitches are his breaking balls. He throws a curveball in the 77-80 range with very good command, and compliments it with a sharp down breaking 84-87 MPH slider. He rounds out his arsenal with a good changeup, but he needs to use it more.

Stoner is an aggresive pitcher who comes after you with a vast array of pitches. He likes to mix up his pitch sequences, sometimes working opposite to the count. Stoner looks to be either a good arm for the underside of a bullpen (6th/7th innings), or a reliable 4/5 in a rotation. Stoner should begin the season in Binghamton, and much like the past 2 seasons, earn a midseason promotion to Buffalo, which would put him in line for a mid 2010 debut.

15. Nick Carr 4/19/87 (21.79) R/R (A+ St. Lucie 2-10, 5.70 era, 22 G, 21 GS, 94.2 IP, 103 H, 64/60 R/ER, 10 HR, 50/80 BB/K, 1.12 GO/FO, .282 BAA, 1.62 WHIP, A Savannah 1-2, 3.33 era, 4 GS, 24.1 IP, 22 H, 11/9 R/ER, 4/16 BB/K, 1.16 GO/FO, .239 BAA, 1.07 WHIP)

Total 2008 Stats: 3-12, 5.22 era, 26 G, 25 GS, 119 IP, 125 H, 75/69 R/ER, 10 HR, 54/96 BB/K, 1.13 GO/FO, .274 BAA, 1.50 WHIP

The Mets drafted Carr in the 41st round of the 2005 draft, out of Twin Falls High School, in Idaho. Instead of signing with the organization out of high school, Carr took his mid-90s fastball and deadly slider to the junior college ranks, more specifically - Southern Idaho College, where he was a teammate of Todd Privett. Carr went 5-4 with a 2.96 era in 13 games, 11 starts, spanning 54.2 innings. He allowed 38 hits, while walking 38 and striking out 66. Carr signed with the Mets as a draft and follow on May 17th, 2006 - just 2 days before the one year anniversary of the release of Revenge of the Sith.

Carr was sent to the rookie level Appalachian League, where he posted decent numbers, as a 19 year old. Carr should be in the mix for a starting job in the South Atlantic League with Savannah.

Carr instead spent the season in Brooklyn of the New York Penn League, where he put up very good numbers, going 5-2, 3.80 in 66.1 innings. He played in Hawaii during the fall, getting into 5 more games, totalling 12.1 innings, and posting a 3.65 era. Carr should either continue his one level ascent through the system, or if the Mets feel like pushing him, he could open the year in St. Lucie.

The Mets felt like pushing him - and it came back to bite them directly on the ass. Carr spent the bulk of the season living through hell in St. Lucie, not earning his first victory until August 16th. For the majority of his time in St. Lucie, he sported an ERA north of 6. Despite the absolutely ugly numbers Carr put up in St. Lucie, there was a silver lining. In his last 4 outings, he went: 2-0, 0.86 era, 4 G, 21 IP, 11 H, 2 ER, 10/18 BB/K, 1.00 WHIP. Still, as there was a year to play with, he can repeat St. Lucie comfortably and still not exceed the ideal age/level for high A.

Carr features 5 pitches, a 2 and 4 seam fastball, slider, curve and change. Both his fastballs sit in the low to mid 90s, and he can occasionally dial his 4 seamer up to 96-97 if he needs to. Both pitches have strike out-ability, but they work best when he uses them to setup his slider and other offspeed pitches. His slider is his best offspeed pitch, sitting in the mid 80s with very good hard late break down. He vastly improved his ability to throw his curveball for strikes, this pitch sits in the lower 80s. Finally, he has an upper 70s changeup which he's backed off on from previous seasons, lowering it's velocity.

Carr is an intense pitcher who feeds off emotion, which as we've seen from OPP, can be a good thing or a bad thing. Carr has a lot of moving parts in his delievery, which can cause him to get out of whack at times. Carr projects as a middle of the rotation starter with upside, or if he doesn't put everything together, a late inning power reliever. He should begin 2009 back in St. Lucie (having a year to play with developmentally...), and end the season in Binghamton, giving him an ETA of late 2010 as a reliever or mid 2011 as a starter.

16. Cole Abbott 7/17/88 (20.5) R/R - DNP in 2008

The Mets stole Abbott in the 25th round, with their 783rd pick in the 2007 draft. Expected to go much higher, Abbott fell precipitously, and the Mets snapped him up, and sent him to the GCL, where he did not pitch much, and struggled with command when he did toe the rubber. Abbott should find himself in Kingsport to start 2008, with an outside shot of ending his season in Savannah.

For some still unexplained reason, Abbott did not throw one pitch during the 2008 season.

17. Elvin Ramirez 10/10/87 (21.33) R/R (A Savannah 6-7, 3.67 era, 18 GS, 81 IP, 81 H, 38/33 R/ER, HR, 36/62 BB/K, 1.77 GO/FO, .257 BAA, 1.44 WHIP)

Ramirez was signed during the 2005 International Free Agent signing period, and made his pro debut in 2006 with the DSL Mets, posting a 0-1, 2.63 line in 11 games, 6 starts, spanning 27.1 innings. He was jumped to Kingsport for the 2007 season, where he struggled, posting a 1-4, 5.52 line in 12 starts over 45.2 innings.

Ramirez was in the midst of a breakout 2008 season when he suffered a back injury on July 9th, which caused him to miss the rest of the season.

Ramirez features one of the best sinkers in the organization, a devastating mid 90s sinker with sharp down break and great side to side movement. Much like Bobby Parnell, he's cleaned up his mechanics and can maintain velocity deep into games now. He can dial a 4 seamer up into the 95-97 range, but very rarely uses this pitch. Ramirez also owns a very good slider, which he throws in the mid 80s, again with a sharp down break. he tops off his arsenal with a still developing changeup which he is inconsistent with.

As evidenced by his 1.77 GO/FO ratio this past season, Ramirez goes right after hitters, relying on his defense to make plays for him. He Ks a good amount (62 in 81 innings, 6.89 per 9), but walks a few too many (36 in 81 innings, 4 per 9). Right now, Ramirez is viewed as a starter, but again, as with Bobby Parnell, development of his changeup will dictate where he ultimately ends up. He's got the top two pitches to be a good #3 in a rotation, or a very valuable setup man in the back of a bullpen. Ramirez should open 2009 in St. Lucie, and move up a level per year, making his debut date sometime in the 2011 season, or on opening day 2012.

18. Scott Shaw 8/3/86 (22.5) R/R (University of Illinois 4-4, 7.83 era, 12 G, 11 GS, 2 CG, 56.1 IP, 79 H, 59/49 R/ER, 8 HR, 24/48 BB/K, .328 BAA, A- Brooklyn 6-3, 2.80 era, 15 G, 14 GS, 74 IP, 66 H, 24/23 R/ER, 4 HR, 15/79 BB/K, 1.01 GO/FO, .238 BAA, 1.09 WHIP, HWL Honolulu 2-2, 2.51 era, 8 G, 7 GS, 32.1 IP, 12 H, 13/9 R/ER, HR, 9/35 BB/K, .65 WHIP, .110 BAA, 0.91 GO/FO)

Total 2008 Stats: 12-9, 4.48 era, 35 G, 32 GS, 162.2 IP, 157 H, 96/81 R/ER, 48/162 BB/K, 0.98 GO/FO (Brooklyn + Hawaii), .244 BAA, 1.26 WHIP

Total 2008 Professional Stats: 8-5, 2.71 era, 23 G, 21 GS, 106.1 IP, 78 H, 37/32 R/ER, 24/114 BB/K, 0.98 GO/FO, .199 BAA, .96 WHIP

Shaw was drafted by the Mets in the 13th round, 404th overall, and after signing was sent to Brooklyn, and then Hawaii, where he posted a composite 2.71 era in 106.1 innings over 23 games. Shaw, who had a miserable junior season at the University of Illonis, is a high upside college pick in the mold of Bobby Parnell. Here is a predraft 2008 scouting report:

He has topped out at 94 MPH on the radar gun. Shaw said his typical fastball ranges between 88 and 92 MPH.

"He is a very projectible pitcher," Illinois coach Dan Hartleb said. "He's athletic and has a very good body. He's very capable of being successful."

In high school, Shaw relied on his fastball, curve and slider. He developed his fourth pitch, a changeup, over the last year.

"I consider that now one of my best pitches," he said.

19. Angel Calero 9/25/86 (22.33) L/L (A Savannah 3-5, 2.57 era, 12 GS, 66.2 IP, 54 H, 30/19 R/ER, 3 HR, 15/59 BB/K, 0.86 GO/FO, .220 BAA, 1.04 WHIP, A+ St. Lucie 1-1, 7.07 era, 4 GS, 14 IP, 18 H, 11 ER, 3 HR, 7/10 BB/K, 0.52 GO/FO, .300 BAA, 1.79 WHIP)

Calero was signed during the 2005 International Free Agent signing period, and made his debut later that same year in the VSL, where he posted a 2-4, 4.03 era in 44.2 innings, with 24 walks allowed (4.84 BB/9). The following year saw in stateside, in the GCL, where his control problems were magnified, as he walked 23 in 27.2 innings (7.48 BB/9), while going 2-2 with a 6.83 era. He was sent to Kingsport for the 2007 season, and pitched markedly better, going 5-1 with a 2.79 era over 51.2 innings, with just 17 walks allowed (2.96 BB/9).

We don't know what happened to Calero beyond the facts that 1) he hasn't pitched anywhere since June 27th, and 2) he's on the DL. #1 leads me to believe it's a bad injury, but again, we have not heard anything officially.

Calero should open 2009 back in St. Lucie, assuming his health is OK.

Update 3/28/09: Calero was shut down with a shoulder injury, that puts his 2009 in jeopardy, for sure.

20. Jim Fuller 6/1/87 (21.66) L/L (Southern Connecticut State 9-3, 1.39 era, 14 GS, 2 CG, 97 IP, 60 H, 24/15 R/ER, 4 HR, 23/145 BB/K, .175 BAA, A- Brooklyn 2-0, 1 era, 8 G, GS, SV, 18 IP, 15 H, 2 ER, 5/22 BB/K, 2.22 GO/FO, .238 BAA, 1.11 WHIP)

Total 2008 Stats: 11-3, 1.33 era, 22 G, 15 GS, 115 IP, 75 H, 28/167 BB/K, .90 WHIP

Fuller was drafted in the 21st round, 644th overall, out of the sister college of my alum, Southern Connecticut State. After he was signed, he was sent to Brooklyn where he posted a 1.00 era in 18 innings, his season was bisected by a shoulder strain.

21. Eric Beaulac 11/13/86 (22.21) R/R (Le Moyne College 9-2, 2.83 era, 14 GS, CGSO, 92.1 IP, 56 H, 36/29 R/ER, 43/113 BB/K, .170 BAA, A- Brooklyn 0-0, 9.82 era, 2 G, 3.2 IP, H, 4 ER, 2/6 BB/K, 0.25 GO/FO, .091 BAA, .82 WHIP, R Kingsport 1-0, 1.89 era, 6 G, 2 GS, SV, 19 IP, 15 H, 5/4 R/ER, HR, 6/23 BB/K, 1.36 GO/FO, .214 BAA, 1.11 WHIP, A Savannah 1-2, 3.55 era, 6 GS, 25.1 IP, 22 H, 13/10 R/ER, HR, 18/31 BB/K, 1.47 GO/FO, .239 BAA, 1.58 WHIP)

Total 2008 Minor League Stats: 2-2, 3.38 era, 14 G, 8 GS, SV, 48 IP, 38 H, 22/18 R/ER, 2 HR, 26/60 BB/K, 1.29 GO/FO, .220 BAA, 1.33 WHIP

Total 2008 Cumulative Stats: 11-4, 3.01 era, 28 G, 22 GS, 140.1 IP, 94 H, 69/173 BB/K, 1.16 WHIP

Beaulac was drafted by the Mets in the 9th round, 284th overall, out of Le Moyne College, and after signing for $90,000, he was sent to Brooklyn, then Kingsport, and lastly Savannah, where he posted a composite 3.38 era in 48 minor league innings. Here is a predraft 2008 scouting report on Beaulac:

Thanks to Coach Steven Owens: FB 91-93, very good slider 83-87 with depth, workable change....gives up very few hits per innings pitched, command needs to improve and reduce walks

Beaulac features a 3 pitch arsenal, a fastball, slider and changeup. He throws his fastball in the 92-94 range, but can pump it into the 95-96 range when needed. A very good trait (which he shares with Bobby Parnell and Brad Holt) is that Beaulac can maintain his fastball deep into games. His best secondary offering is a low to mid 80s slider he uses as an out pitch. This pitch has a good break and late movement, he uses it to generate Ks and grounders. He rounds out his arsenal with a developing upper 70s changeup which he needs to get more consistent with.

Beaulac should open the 2009 season back in Savannah, anchoring what is expected to be a very young, inexperienced staff. However, he should be in the mix for a midseason (or earlier) promotion to St. Lucie, followed by a likely stint in the junior AFL after the season (the replacement league for Hawaii), and then a start in Binghamton in 2010, which would put his debut sometime in mid 2011.

22. Gavin Dlouhy 6/19/88 (20.63) R/R - DNP in 2008

The Mets signed Dlouhy out of Australia in July of 2006, and he made his debut a year later for the GCL Mets, but only managed 25.1 innings in a crowded staff.

Dlouhy features a low 90s fastball, developing change, and a good splitter. He should open the season in A ball. He was highly regarded out of Australia, and has put up good numbers in limited time. His stuff is good enough to move up in the ranks of starting pitcher prospects in the system, and should be one to watch going forward. He is definite a sleeper candidate in 2008.

Dlouhy, like Cole Abbott, did not pitch in 2008, leading to speculation that they have quit baseball, and combined to form a boyband along with Nathan Vineyard.

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