MPH System Audit III - Part II (Corner Infielders)

Corner Infielders

1. Dan Murphy 4/1/85 (23.83) L/R (AA Binghamton .308/.374/.496/.870, 110 for 357, 56 runs, 26 2b, 3b, 13 HR, 67 RBI, 39/46 BB/K, 14/19 SBs, MLB New York .313/.397/.473/.871, 41 for 131, 24 runs, 9 2b, 3 3b, 2 HR, 17 RBI, 18/28 BB/K, AFL Peoria Saguaros 25 for 63, 22 runs, 8 2b, 2 HR, 18 RBI, 13/6 BB/K, .397/.487/.619/1.106)

Total 2008 Stats : .319/.394/.505/.898, 176 for 551, 102 runs, 43 2b, 4 3b, 17 HR, 102 RBI, 70/80 BB/K, .145 K rate, .8750 BB/K ratio,

Murphy was selected in the 13th round of the 2006 draft out of Jacksonville University, where as a junior, he hit .398/.470/.534/1.004 with 10 2b, 3b, 6 HR in 221 ABs. He also stole 15/22 bases, and had a ridiculous 34/13 BB/K ratio. His K rate was an absurdly low .0588, and his BB/K ratio was an equally absurd 2.6154. He throws right and bats lefty.

He has shown a history of vast improvement in his plate discipline. His freshman year at Jacksonville, he hit .377/.455/.506/.961, with 5 2b, 3b, HR, in 77 ABs. He struck out 13 times, a K rate of .168, and a 9/13 BB/K ratio, or 0.6923. His sophomore season, he hit .329/.381/.429/.810, with 12 2b, 2 3b, 2 HR in 219 ABs, and a 11/23 BB/K ratio. His K rate was .105, and his BB/K ratio was 0.4783.

After the Mets took him, he played at 3 levels, Kingsport, Brooklyn, and the GCL. Overall, he batted .213/.315/.300/.615 in 80 ABs. He had a 12/7 BB/K ratio, and a 0.0875 K rate, and a 1.7143 BB/K ratio.

In 2007, Murphy was in St. Lucie, and he batted .287/.342/.429/.771 in 513 ABs, with 34 2b, 3 3b and 11 HR. He had a BB/K ratio of 44/63, or 0.6984. His K rate was .123. His lefty/righty splits show that he is more adapt at hitting RHP.

Murphy hit .257/.314/.362/.676 vs LHP, 39 for 152, with 5 2b, 3b, 3 HR, and an 11/19 BB/K ratio, or 0.5789. His K rate vs LHP was .132. Versus RHP, he hit .299/.353/.457/.810, 108 for 361, with 29 2b, 2 3b, 8 HR and a 33/44 BB/K ratio, or 0.7500. His K rate vs RHP was .122.

THE FUTURE: Murphy should be manning third base for the Binghamton Mets in 2008, and as with Mike Carp, how well he hits lefties will determine his future. Both Carp and Murphy can abuse RHP, however, how they fare vs LHP will determine whether they truly emerge as serious contenders to man 1b for the Mets in 2009.

UPDATE 2008: Murphy's enjoyed a meteroic rise through the farm system in 2008, and is in a LF platoon (with Nick Evans) for the Mets. As predicted (really it wasn't that much of a guess), Murphy opened the year in Binghamton, manning 3b. However, in late June, as Murphy emerged as a legit bat, the Mets opted to try Daniel at 2b, with mixed results (5 errors in 15 games). Then in August, Marlon Anderson's hamstring, which had never fully healed, flared up, which cleared the way for Murphy's callup. Since arriving in New York (Houston, actually), he has not stopped hitting, putting up a ridiculous .404/.491/.617/1.108 line through 47 ABs. What has really impressed Mets brass (and fans, for that matter) is Murphy's extraordinaryly advanced batting eye, he's got an 8/7 BB/K in the majors.

As we said, Murphy started out in Binghamton, where he put up a great .308/.374/.496/.870 line in 357 ABs. Counting his 14 AB rehab stint in Brooklyn, and his 4 AB cameo in New Orleans, Murphy's hitting .315/.379/.493/.872 (117 for 372, 26 2b, 3b, 13 HR, 39/48 BB/K) in the minor leagues this year, with a .8125 BB/K ratio, and a .129 K rate). As we highlighted last year, Murphy fared much better against RHP then LHP (.676 OPS vs LHP, .810 vs RHP). Well, Murphy turned that around in a big way this season. Against LHP this year, he hit .305/.363/.481/.844 (40 for 131, 9 2b, 3b, 4 HR, 10/18 BB/K), with a .5556 BB/K ratio, and a .137 K rate. Versus RHP, he hit .320/.385/.502/.887 (77 for 241, 17 2b, 9 HR, 29/30 BB/K), with a great .9667 BB/K ratio, and .125 K rate. As you can see from the numbers, Murphy's also improved his power this season, he hit 11 HR all of last year, and has 15 this season between the minors and majors. Also good, this improvement in power has not come at the expense of his K rate (.123 in 2007, .129 in 2008).

Over Murphy's 2+ seasons in the minor leagues, he's gotten just under 1000 ABs (965), and put up a decent line: .291/.353/.444/.797 (281 for 965, 61 2b, 4 3b, 26 HR, 95/118 BB/K), and has hit better versus RHP then LHP (.300/.364/.468/.832 vs RHP in 643 ABs, .273/.331/.394/.725 in 322 ABs vs LHP)

By now, we all know what the Irish Hammer (as I've seen him called on occasion) can do with the bat. Straight out of AA and into the heat of a pennant race, Daniel Murphy batted .313/.397/.473/.870 in 131 big league ABs, and showed absolutely none of what you'd expect out of a rookie, instead looking like a chiseled 10 year veteran from AB #1. With a smooth level lefty swing and power to all fields, Murphy is a line drive hitter with good patience at the plate. Murphy won't steal many bases in the majors (14 of 19 in AA), but he is an intelligent runner who won't run himself into outs.

Murphy's defense is the one question mark in his game, whether it be at third, second, first or left. He played third base all throughout his minor league career, but obviously will not be manning that position in the majors. Right now, he is expected to be the fulltime left fielder, but an eventual move to first base after the season is definitely in the realm of possiblities. Murphy is a finished product at the plate, although he may learn to hit for more power as he learns the pitchers around the league, he likely won't ever crack more then 20 homers in a season. Murphy's in the majors, and likely to stay for a long long time, at whatever position the Mets eventually stick him at. The bottom line is Daniel Murphy will hit, and that will keep him in the majors.

THE NEW FUTURE: The Mets have indicated they will be sending Murphy to winterball to play LF, which means that they view him as an answer to the LF spot in 2009. And as we've seen in his brief time in the majors, he stays in very well against lefties. This would afford top prospect Fernando Martinez a full season in AAA, too.

2. Nick Evans 1/30/86 (23) R/R (AA Binghamton .311/.365/.561/.926, 92 for 296, 52 runs, 18 2b, 7 3b, 14 HR, 53 RBI, 26/64 BB/K, MLB New York .257/.303/.404/.706, 28 for 109, 18 runs, 10 2b, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 7/24 BB/K)

Total 2008 Stats: .296/.348/.519/.867, 120 for 405, 70 runs, 28 2b, 7 3b, 16 HR, 62 RBI, 33/88 BB/K, 217 K rate, .3750 BB/K ratio,

Splits courtesy www.minorleaguesplits.com

Evans was drafted in the 5th round out of St. Mary's High in Phoenix, in 2004. He signed and went to the Gulf Coast League, where he hit .258/.311/.462 in 50 games. He opened 2005 with Kingsport in the Appalachian League, and hit .344/.382/.734 in 15 games, before being promoted to Brooklyn, where he hit .252/.302/.407/.709 (57 for 226, 30 runs, 11 2b, 3 3b, 6 HR, 33 RBI, 17/34 BB/K) in 57 games, for a 0.50 BB/K ratio, and a very good .150 K rate. Evans hit pretty evenly against both lefties and righties, in terms of average, but performed better in the OBP and SLG departments against LHP. He hit .260/.373/.440/.813 (13 for 50, 5 2b, 2 3b, 9/9 BB/K) against LHP, a 1.00 BB/K ratio, and an equally good .180 K rate. Against RHP, he hit .250/.280/.398/.678 (44 for 176, 6 2b, 3b, 6 HR, 8/25 BB/K), with a 0.32 BB/K ratio, not so good, but with a very good .142 K rate.

Overall in 2005, Nick hit .272/.319/.479/.798 (79 for 290, 41 runs, 18 2b, 3 3b, 12 HR, 55 RBI, 21/51 BB/K), for a .4118 BB/K ratio, and an excellent .176 K rate. Nick hit .269/.355/.493/.848 against LHP (18 for 67, 5 2b, 2 3b, 2 HR, 9/13 BB/K), with a BB/K ratio of 0.6923, and a K rate of .194. Against RHP, he hit .274/.308/.475/.783 (61 for 223, 13 2b, 3b, 10 HR, 12/38 BB/K) with a BB/K ratio of .3158, and a K rate of .170. Extremely good K rates for a 19 year old playing the majority of his games in the pitching friendly confines of Keyspan Park, not to mention against kids 2-3 years older then he was.

2006 saw Nick promoted to full season A ball, in Hagerstown of the Sally League, where he hit .254/.320/.419/.739 (130 for 511, 55 runs, 33 2b, 3 3b, 15 HR, 67 RBI, 45/99 BB/K), for a .4545 BB/K ratio, and a still very good .193 K rate.

His L/R splits were very evenly distributed in 2006, with a .739 OPS against LHP and a .740 against RHP. He hit .254/.307/.432/.739 (30 for 118, 8 2b, 2 3b, 3 HR, 9/20 BB/K), with a 0.45 BB/K ratio, and a .169 K rate. Against RHP, he hit .258/.321/.419/.740 (99 for 384, 24 2b, 3b, 12 HR, 31/77 BB/K), with a .4026 BB/K ratio, and a still very low .201 K rate. Evans started off very slowly in full season ball, hitting just .226 over the first two months (43 for 190), with a woeful 7/46 BB/K ratio, but picked it up tremendously over the 2nd half of the season, hitting .278 from June 1st on (84 for 302, including a .364/.430/.705 clip in June), with a very good 33/51 BB/K ratio.

And now we come to Evans' breakout 2007 campaign in St. Lucie (high A, FSL). Evans hit .286/.374/.476/.850 (108 for 378, 65 runs, 25 2b, 3b, 15 HR, 54 RBI, 53/64 BB/K), setting career highs in virtually every major offensive category (AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, tying in HR, BBs, and least Ks). Most impressivee about Evans 2007 season was his vastly improved plate discipline. He had a sterling .8281 BB/K ratio, easily the highest of his career, while his K rate of .169 was the second lowest of his career (Brooklyn 05).

Evans obliterated LHP to the tune of .343/.431/.581/1.012 (36 for 105, 13 2b, 4 HR, 17/12 BB/K), a great 1.4167 BB/K ratio, and an equally great .114 K rate. Against RHP, he hit a still very solid .271/.361/.454/.815 (77 for 284, 17 2b, 3b, 11 HR, 38/54 BB/K), for a BB/K ratio of .7037, and a K rate of .190.

Evans began the 2008 season in Binghamton, and he was mashing from the season opener, ending April with a .904 OPS. Evans received a surprise callup in May, and went 3 for 4 with 3 2b in his first major league game, before a deep slump, concluding with him being sent back down, where he mashed in June to the tune of a .999 OPS. Evans played 7 games in July before being recalled for a second time, and is right now the righthanded platoon partner of Daniel Murphy in LF.

Evans hit .311/.365/.561/.926 in AA over 75 games (92 for 296, 52 runs, 18 2b, 7 3b, 14 HR, 53 RBI, 26/64 BB/K), and if he had enough ABs, he would've finished in the top 5 in AVG, SLG and OPS in the Eastern League. Evans did regress slightly in his plate discipline, with a .4063 BB/K ratio in AA, and a .216 K rate. However, when he was getting consistent playing time in the minors, he put up a 17/32 BB/K ratio (.5313 BB/K, .189 K rate), and his BB/K was 1.00 in May (10/10), his K rate was .133.

Evans crushed LHP in AA, hitting an absurd .366/.438/.699/1.137 (34 for 93, 22 runs, 4 2b, 3 3b, 7 HR, 19 RBI, 12/20 BB/K), a 0.600 BB/K ratio, and a .215 K rate. Against RHP, Evans improved significantly, hitting .286/.330/.498/.828 (58 for 203, 30 runs, 14 2b, 4 3b, 7 HR, 34 RBI, 14/44 BB/K), with a .3182 BB/K ratio and a .217 K rate.

Evans, who had improved his month to month consistency in 2007, advanced markedly in that department during the 2008 season (.904 April, .880 May, .999 June, .882 July). He has a very good opposite field approach, as we saw in the majors, and struggles to pull at times, although he became more proficient at it later in the season. Despite relapsing some in the plate discipline department (53/64 in St. Lucie, 26/64 in Binghamton), he compensated with a much higher SLG, (.476 in St. Lucie, .576 in Binghamton). It remains to be seen how well Evans hits RHP, that will determine if he ends up as a lefty killer in the majors, or a full time regular.

Evans is a gold glove caliber first baseman, with soft hands and good range to both sides. In left field, he does not have good range, and his arm, while strong enough for first base, becomes a major liabilty due to very poor throwing mechanics.

Evans, who made his debut in 2008, should find himself playing 1b and LF in Buffalo this season, unless he goes 3 for 4 in every spring training game (as he did in today's opener).

THE FUTURE: The future very much is up in the air for Evans, depending on where he fits in with the future plans of the Mets. His surprise call up, and his continued mashing of LHP in the majors (23 for 70, 15 runs, 8 2b, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 6/15 BB/K, .329/.390/.529/.919) could make him a very attractive platoon partner in some sort of OF combination in 2009, but the Mets may want him in Buffalo to become more proficient against RHP (5 for 37, 3 runs, 2 2b, 4 RBI, 1/9 BB/K, .135/.150/.189/.349). Of course, he hasn't exactly been given a prolonged chance to hit RHP in the majors. My best guess would be Evans is either traded, or in Buffalo for the 2009 season.

3. Jefry Marte 6/21/91 (17.58) R/R (R GCL .325/.389/.532/.930, 50 for 154, 29 runs, 14 2b, 3 3b, 4 HR, 24 RBI, 13/30 BB/K, .195 K rate, .4333 BB/K ratio)

Marte was signed in the same International Free Agent class that produced Wilmer Flores and Cesar Puello, however, unlike Flores, he spent the 2008 season in the GCL, where he tore shit up, hitting .325/.389/.532/.930 in 154 ABs.

Marte already has shown the ability to hit for average and power and seems to only have scratched the surface of his capabilities. Advanced for his age mentally, but with plenty of maturing to go physically, the 6-foot-1, 187-pounder has huge projection.

"He already has a good swing and a strong body, but I can see him growing and getting even bigger and stronger," GCL Mets manager Bobby Floyd said. "He is going to have some real power."

Marte showed a good approach at the plate, as he rarely chased curveballs out of the zone. An average runner with good instincts, he'll steal an occasional base. While he made 19 errors at third base, he projects as an average defender with average arm strength.

Marte has excellent power, due to his frame (6'1/187), and should add more power as he fills out over time. As it is, he blasted 21 XBH in just 154 ABs in the GCL, posting a .930 OPS. Despite posting a .320+ average, he does need to work on his swing, as it is very long, which means a majority of his power is to the pull side. Marte did not strike out at an alarming rate despite his long swing, just a .195 K rate, but as he advances through the system, he may have trouble with advanced offspeed pitches.

Marte's defense is as raw as his offense. He made 19 errors in just 44 games, but as he gets time to work on it, his defense should improve, as well. He definitely has the arm for third, but he struggles on the backhand side. It is a long way off, but even with Marte, he is blocked by David Wright and as he gets closer to the majors, he will be moved to either first, or a corner outfield spot, where he will definitely hit enough to justify his position. Marte should open 2009 in Savannah, and then ascend one level a season, factoring in a half season for struggles/repetition leaves us with a debut of mid 2013.

4. Ike Davis 3/22/87 (21.88) L/L (Arizona State .385/.457/.742/1.200, 82 for 213, 64 runs, 26 2b, 3b, 16 HR, 76 RBI, 31/34 BB/K, A- Brooklyn .256/.326/.326/.652, 55 for 215, 17 runs, 15 2b, 17 RBI, 23/43 BB/K)

Total 2008 Stats: .320/.393/.533/.926, 137 for 428, 81 runs, 41 2b, 3b, 16 HR, 93 RBI, 54/77 BB/K, .180 K rate, .7013 BB/K ratio)

Davis was drafted with the Mets first pick in the 2008 draft, 18th overall, out of Arizona State where he hit .385/.457/.742/1.200 in 213 ABs. After signing for $1,575,000, the Mets sent Davis to Brooklyn, where he had a disasterous half season, slumping mightily and hitting just .256/.326/.326 with 0 homers and 15 2b in 215 ABs.

There is some talk within the organization that Davis will/should/could open the 2009 season in Savannah, not St. Lucie as is customary for high round college players in their first full season. That would certainly speak to exactly how concerned the Mets are with Davis' performance in Brooklyn.

Davis, despite a terrible showing in Brooklyn, has very good raw power, especially to the pull side. He is not adept at going the other way, which explains why he struggled so mightily at Keyspan Park (.244/.280/.311/.591) vs road games (.271/.377/.344/.721). Keyspan, as we've mentioned many times, is death on lefty power hitters, due to the wind coming in off the ocean to the pull side (right field). Intriguingly, he hit markedly better against LHP (.317/.369/.383/.753) then RHP (.232/.310/.303/.614).

Davis is a good defender at first, he has soft hands and quick feet, enabling him to snare groundballs in the hole. As evidenced by his pitching and playing outfield in college, he has a strong arm. Davis should open 2009 in St. Lucie, although there is some talk within the organization that Davis will/should/could open the 2009 season in Savannah, not St. Lucie as is customary for high round college players in their first full season. That would certainly speak to exactly how concerned the Mets are with Davis' performance in Brooklyn.

5. Lucas Duda 2/3/86 (23) L/R (A+ St. Lucie .263/.358/.398/.755, 127 for 483, 58 runs, 26 2b, 3 3b, 11 HR, 66 RBI, 66/129 BB/K, 2/9 SBs, .267 K rate, .5116 BB/K ratio)

Lucas Duda is a 6'4/225 first baseman the Mets drafted in the 7th round (243rd overall) of the 2007 draft.

He got sporadic playing time in his freshman year at USC, only 77 ABs in 34 games. He hit just .208 with a .322 OBP and .299 SLG. We can throw those numbers out the window due to the lack of consistent PT.

In 2006, his sophomore season, he played everyday, getting 191 ABs in 56 games. He hit much better, .298/.391/.398, but with a decided lack of power. He only showed a 1/63.66 HR/AB rate, and had just 12 XBH in 191 ABs. He did, however, show a very good eye at the plate, with a 0.82352 BB/K ratio (walks per strikeout).

In 2007, Duda again played everyday, and hit .280/.378/.468, showing a burgeoning power stroke, increasing his HR/AB ratio to 1/26.57. He had 18 XBH in 186 ABs, with the increase in HR (4) and triples (2) driving his slugging higher. While in college, he had a 0.83333 BB/K ratio, virtually staying the same as in 2006.

In Brooklyn after getting drafted, Duda hit .299/.398/.462, vastly improving the number of doubles he hit. Duda hits lefty, and Keyspan park is death on left handed sluggers, so much so, that Mike Carp was sent to the GCL in 04, then Hagerstown in 05, skipping the deathly confines of Keyspan.

Duda, however, thrived at Keyspan. He hit 20 doubles, 3 triples and 5 homers in 248 ABs. While his BB/K ratio did decline slightly from his USC 07 season, from 0.83333 to 0.7347, it was more then offset by the 18 point increase in average.

Duda's Brooklyn splits are very interesting, as far as lefty/righty goes. Versus lefties, Duda hit .283/.377/.500/.877 with 7 2b and 1 HR in 46 ABs. He struck out 15 times and walked 6 times. Versus righties he batted .302/.401/.455/.856 with 13 2b, 3 3b and 4 HR in 202 ABs. He struck out 34 times and walked 30 times. We'll have to see if this trend continues at the higher levels, but so far, it is extremely promising. His K rate vs LHP was very high at .289, but the sample size (46 ABs) is too low to draw many conclusions. His K rate vs RHP was .151.

Duda's our 3rd best first base prospect, and 4th best corner infield prospect (3rd base is kind of filled for the foreseeable future). I would probably rank Duda somewhere between 9 and 15 on our prospect lists.

THE FUTURE: Duda should be opening his first full season in St. Lucie, manning first base for a completely new look Mets infield. Duda, at least so far in his pro career, has shown the ability to handle lefthanders. If this trend continues in St. Lucie, and Carp/Murphy scuffle in Binghamton vs LHP, Duda might vault all the way to the top spot in corner infielders. But that's a long long way off. For now, Duda fans should focus on his developing power, and his ability to control the strike zone.

UPDATE 2008: Lucas Duda started off the 2008 season with a bang in St. Lucie, hitting .330/.415/.447/.862 in April (34 for 103, 14 runs, 6 2b, 2 HR, 19 RBI, 14/25 BB/K), but from May 1st to July 31st, he struggled badly, hitting just .230/.333/.362/.695 (65 for 282, 28 runs, 16 2b, 3 3b, 5 HR, 33 RBI, 40/76 BB/K). He ended up bookending his season with solid months, hitting .286/.368/.449/.817 in August (28 for 98, 16 runs, 4 2b, 4 HR, 14 RBI, 12/28 BB/K).

Duda's overall line in 2008 wasn't all that bad (outside of the power numbers), .263/.358/.398/.755 (127 for 483, 58 runs, 26 2b, 3 3b, 11 HR, 66 RBI, 66/129 BB/K). Duda's K rate was vastly elevated from 2007, he struck out at a .267 clip, compared to the .198 clip he struck out at last season, and his BB/K is .5116, as compared to the .7347 at Brooklyn.

One of the biggest changes from his season in Brooklyn (and even Hawaii) is that he put up simply disasterous numbers vs LHP: .187/.281/.247/.527 (28 for 150, 11 runs, 4 2b, 3b, HR, 13 RBI, 18/55 BB/K), a 0.3273 BB/K ratio, and a K rate that is much much too high: .367. Of course, that means he's hitting very well against RHP, which he is: .297/.392/.465/.857 (99 for 333, 47 runs, 22 2b, 2 3b, 10 HR, 53 RBI, 48/74 BB/K), a BB/K ratio of .6486, and a much better K rate of .222.

Duda works very deep counts, resulting both in a high number of walks, and a high number of Ks. In Brooklyn (2007), he posted a 36/49 BB/K ratio, and in St. Lucie (2008), he posted a 66/129 BB/K ratio. Duda, who handled LHP very well in Brooklyn, absolutely did not in St. Lucie, something he must improve this upcoming season in Binghamton. Duda has very good power, which he is still developing (.465 SLG vs RHP in 2008). Due to drawing deep counts, there are times Duda is too passive, he needs to learn when to attack his pitch, should he get it.

Duda is a little reckless on the bases, getting caught stealing 7 times in 9 attempts, but given his frame, he runs better then one would expect. This isn't a big area of his game, though, and he shouldn't be counted on for steals. His defense is average, he has a good arm (as evidenced by him playing outfield in college, and early in the season for St. Lucie). He, like Ike Davis, needs to work on his backhand side.

Duda, as we stressed with Mike Carp and Daniel Murphy, needs to find some sort of ability to hit LHP. Even if he were to put up a Carp 08 line in Binghamton vs LHP (.268/.354/.438/.792), or even a little worse, he would automatically become a .285+ hitter due to his prowess against RHP. Duda, as we said, will open 2009 in Binghamton. Figuring all of 09 in AA, and all of 10 in AAA, he should be ready for his MLB debut on opening day in 2011.

THE NEW FUTURE: There has to be some consideration given to Duda's repeating St. Lucie, but a pretty good prediction would be that the Mets won't, and he'll be in Binghamton to open 2009. Duda's slipped from 3rd to possibly 5th or 6th on the depth chart at corner infielder, behind the Trinity of Binghamton, and maybe behind Ike Davis and/or Jefry Marte. He'll have to perform much better versus LHP to reclaim some of his glory, but he is already well behind the 8 ball, with, as I said, the Trinity well ahead of him on the depth charts. Duda's best bet to make the majors may well be in another organization, which is too bad, as I believe his bat is better then what we saw in 2008.

6. Stefan Welch 8/12/88 (20.46) L/R (R Kingsport .281/.316/.447/.763, 71 for 253, 33 runs, 14 2b, 8 3b, 4 HR, 34 RBI, 11/40 BB/K A Savannah .263/.364/.474/.837, 5 for 19, 4 runs, 2b, HR, 3 RBI, 2/5 BB/K)

Total 2008 Stats: .279/.320/.449/.768, 76 for 272, 37 runs, 15 2b, 8 3b, 5 HR, 37 RBI, 13/45 BB/K, .165 K rate, .2889 BB/K ratio

Welch was an International Free Agent signing by the Mets during the 2006 season. He made his stateside debut the following year, hitting .288/.346/.353/.699 (40 for 139, 16 runs, 9 2b, 12 RBI, 11/22 BB/K) in the GCL. Welch was promoted to Kingsport for his age 19 season, and he did well, hitting .281/.316/.447/.763 in 253 ABs.

7. Zach Lutz 6/3/86 (22.67) R/R (A- Brooklyn .333/.442/.514/.956, 24 for 72, 9 runs, 4 2b, 3 HR, 12 RBI, 14/12 BB/K, .167 K rate, 1.1667 BB/K ratio)

2007: Drafted by the New York Mets in the 5th round (183rd overall) of the 2007 First Year Player Draft...Started in 40 games for the Crusaders...finished 7th in DIII with a .454 batting average...finished 8th in DIII with 12 home runs...ended 2nd in DIII in slugging percentage with a .858 mark...ended 4th in DIII in RBI's per game with 1.49/game...finished 27th in DIII in walks per game with .82/game...also finished 30th in runs per game (1.26) and 91st in doubles per game (.38/game)...had a team season-high 6 hits against Montclair State (3/15 07)...had 17 multiple RBI games...also went 4-2 from the rubber, with a 5.18 ERA in 5 starts...NBCWA National Position Player Of The Year...D3baseball.com National Player of the Year...PAC Player of the Year...Second Team All-American (Utility)...All-PAC First Team infielder...Named PAC Player of the Week (3/19) batted .536 (15-28) with 10 runs scored, three doubles, two triples, and 15 RBIs as the Crusaders started the season 5-3.

Zach compares himself to David Eckstein. He says he may not have the tools other players have, but he always hustles. Sometimes to a fault, as even after games, he will work out, sometimes to excess, causing him to fatigue. The Mets will be using him around the field, from 3rd, to 1st and the OF. He has also played 2nd in his HS and college career.

The one major issue for Lutz has been health, he has not been able to stay on the field (as was the case for Daniel Murphy prior to 2007). When healthy, Lutz was tearing it up this year, hitting .333/.442/.514/.956 in 72 ABs, with 7 XBH and a 14/12 BB/K ratio. By all rights he should be higher up on this list, and were it not for his injury issues, he would be.

Lutz hasn't been healthy enough in his 2 "seasons" in the system to really compile much of a scouting report. From the limited time he has played, he's put up really good numbers: .324/.432/.500/.932 (24 for 74, 9 runs, 4 2b, 3 HR, 12 RBI, 14/12 BB/K). From these numbers, compiled in the NYPL, we can ascertain that he is a good line drive hitter, and runs deep counts, showing patience. He also has good power the other way, leading to higher batting averages. In summary, when healthy, Zach Lutz can rake.

Lutz is a good enough defender at third, with a very strong arm, but obviously the Mets don't need any 3b, so a move to 1b, or 2b (where he's played 3 games in his career), or even OF, is certainly in the offing. We would expect Lutz to open 2009 in St. Lucie, and if he performs as expected, he should find himself in Binghamton very quickly. Given that, his MLB debut could occur in the latter half of 2010, but we'll give it half a year more and say opening day 2011.

8. Shawn Bowman 12/9/84 (24.16) R/R (A+ St. Lucie .340/.369/.485/.853, 33 for 97, 12 runs, 4 2b, 2 3b, 2 HR, 11 RBI, 4/23 BB/K, AA Binghamton .248/.263/.363/.626, 28 for 113, 12 runs, 7 2b, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 2/35 BB/K, 3/4 SBs, AFL Peoria Saguaros 11 for 37, 6 runs, 3 2b, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 2/5 BB/K, .297/.333/.541/.874)

Total 2008 Stats: .291/.315/.437/.753, 72 for 247, 30 runs, 14 2b, 2 3b, 6 HR, 28 RBI, 8/63 BB/K, .255 K rate, .1270 BB/K ratio

Bowman was taken in the 12th round of the 2002 draft out of Charles Best High in Coquitlam, British Columbia, and assigned to Kingsport of the Appy League, where he struggled mightily. In fact, his rookie season was a complete failure, as he batted under .200 with no homers and 9 XBH in 171 ABs.

However, he bounced back very nicely for Cap City in 2004, hitting .258/.338/.449 with 17 doubles and 19 homers in 396 ABs. And then injuries took their toll on the 19/20 year old third baseman. For three seasons, beginning in 2005, Bowman broke the L-7 vertebrae in his back, and after opting to rehab it each time, he finally succumbed to the inevitable and underwent back surgery in 2007.

Bowman returned from the Phantom Zone in 2008, and did so with a vengence in St. Lucie, hitting .340/.369/.485/.853 in 97 ABs (although he still has problems with Ks).

Bowman, through no fault of his own, has been around forever, and yet, will be just 24 years old next season. After finally (hopefully) putting to rest his checkered past with regards to injury, Bowman played the final half of the season, first with St. Lucie, and then Binghamton. Combined over the two levels, he hit .290/.312/.419/.731, with 17 XBH in 210 ABs. However, despite showing no ill effects of the time off with regards to power, Bowman still has not learned to effectively control the strike zone, as evidenced by a terrible 6/58 BB/K ratio. It can be considered a very good sign that in 37 ABs in the AFL, he only struck out 5 times and drew 2 walks. Despite the back injuries, the power is still there, and Bowman, with a full spring training under his belt and a full season of baseball, could still become a very productive major leaguer.

As with his power, his defense did not suffer with the long layoffs and injuries. Of course there will always be questions about how he will hold up over a full season, something he has never had to endure before (his career high in games is 116, in 2004). Obviously ANY chance of Bowman replacing David Wright at 3b have long since gone flying out the window (at warp speed), and so Bowman will need to learn 1b or LF if he is to have any chance with the Mets. Bowman should open 2009 back in Binghamton, and should be in position to make his MLB debut in the middle of the 2010 season.

9. Jose Jimenez 5/9/87 (21.75) R/R (A Savannah .253/.316/.426/.742, 85 for 336, 46 runs, 23 2b, 3b, 11 HR, 48 RBI, 28/75 BB/K, 2/5 SBs, A- Brooklyn .212/.272/.333/.605, 28 for 132, 11 runs, 4 2b, 4 HR, 16 RBI, 6/42 BB/K, 1/4 SBs)

Total 2008 Stats: .241/.304/.400/.704, 113 for 468, 57 runs, 27 2b, 3b, 15 HR, 64 RBI, 34/117 BB/K, 3/9 SBs, .250 K rate, .2906 BB/K ratio

Jimenez was originally signed by the Brewers, and played for their Arizona League team in 2005 (equal to the GCL), and did very well, hitting .299/.361/.439/.800 as an 18 year old. For some inexplicable reason, the Brewers let him go at the end of the 05 season, and the Mets picked him up, sending him to the DSL for the 06 season, where he hit .309/.437/.455. A return stateside in 07, to the rookie level Appy League proved to be equally fruitful for the now 20 year old, as he set a career high in slugging percentage at .521. Overall, Jimenez hit 309/.379/.521/.900, 51 games, 58 for 188, 32 runs, 17 2b, 3b, 7 HR, 41 RBI, 17/43 BB/K in Kingsport during the 2007 season.

Jimenez struggled big time in 2008, hitting for a .742 OPS in Savannah, and then after being sent to Brooklyn, hitting just .212/.272/.333/.605 there in 132 ABs. Jimenez will still have time on his side, but he must make strides offensively in 2008 to regain any luster prospect wise (nevermind the fact that we don't know where he'll be playing).

10. Richard Lucas 11/2/88 (20.25) R/R (A Savannah .185/.252/.311/.563, 22 for 119, 15 runs, 5 2b, 2 3b, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 1/4 SBs, 11/41 BB/K, R Kingsport 5 for 27, 2 runs, 2b, HR, 3 RBI, 3/11 BB/K)

Total .185/.255/.315/.570, 27 for 146, 17 runs, 6 2b, 2 3b, 3 HR, 16 RBI, 14/52 BB/K, .356 K rate, .2692 BB/K ratio

The Mets picked Lucas in the 4th round of the 2007 draft out of Wolfson high school in Florida, where as a senior, he batted .338 with 7 homers.

Lucas is naturally very raw, having been drafted out of high school. However, he did take several strides forward in his rookie season, including showing an ability to take pitches the other way. For now, he is more comfortable with pitches down in the strike zone as his slightly long swing leads to an inability to handle pitches that are up. In terms of plate discipline, he had a 0.2273 BB/K ratio, and a .311 K rate this season. His long swing led to the strikeouts, but as his knowledge of the strike zone improves, the holes in his swing should close. Lucas is a good fielder, but is a bit scatter armed (does that remind you of another third baseman in the organization?). He moves and reacts very well to the ball and has good range to both sides. He has soft hands and picks the ball cleanly but his problems arrive when he makes his throws. He is still trying to find a consistent release point from which to make his throws, which led to several of his throws sailing on him in 2007.

It is much too early to project anything about Lucas, as he's just a summer (and some change) removed from high school. Suffice to say that his ability to remain at third base is directly tied to his power projection. As he does not play another position, as of right now, it's third base or bust. Lucas should be held in extended spring training until one of the short season teams start up, whether it be the rookie level Gulf Coast League or Appalachian League, or the low A New York Penn League. There is a very outside chance of him opening in Savannah, but it is unlike with Nick Giarraputo and Jose Jiminez ahead of him on that particular depth chart (as they've spent more time in the minors).

Of course, the Mets opened Lucas in Savannah, where he put up a pitiful .185/.252/.311/.563 line in 119 ABs. Lucas got only 27 ABs in Kingsport before tearing his meniscus and missing the rest of the season after undergoing surgery to repair it.