MPH System Audit III - Part I

OK, well - I realized that outside of 2 SP writeups, I'm done with the Audit, so rather then continue my silence, and the blogs downtime, I decided to post this now. Here is the introduction to the Audit, and Part I - Outfielders. Expect Part II to be posted on 3/1.
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MPH System Audit III

Over the past year, we've seen our blog explode onto the scene and really take on a legitimacy that we never could have envisioned, and we hope that is reflected in this Audit, a comprehensive look at not only the 2008 season, but the farm system as a whole. It was a VERY crucial, some would say pivotal, year for the system, with 4 of our top 10 prospects deleted in one fell swoop (for Johan), everyone knew the lower levels would have to step up, and boy did they ever do just that. Of course, the year was pretty much bookended with prospects being traded away, with 3 more prospects being deleted (for Putz), 2 more in the revised top 10.

We'll be doing something a little different this year, we'll post a section every 4 days, to allow you time to read through everything. Six official sections means it'll take roughly a month, so we hope you enjoy this look at our farm system.

MPH's Position by Position Prospect Analysis and Ranking
-cowritten by David and Tejesh (something something Dock Doyle)
-with contributions from Charlie aka The Man formerly of MetsProspectus and now MPH (YAY!)
-thanks to NYFS (www.nyfuturestars.com) for having up to date player profile capsules with relevant information handy!
-ages are in paranthesis next to the players name, and are as of 2/1/09
-B/T is next to age and is in that order
-prospect eligibility for MPH is hitherto defined as 200 ABs or 100 IP in the majors, without regard to days spent on the roster
-winterball stats cutoff at 2/1/09

Affiliate Guide (2009):

Buffalo: AAA International League (new)
Binghamton: AA Eastern League
St. Lucie: A+ Florida State League
Savannah: A South Atlantic League (Sally)
Brooklyn: A- New York Penn League (Penn)
Kingsport: R Appalachian League (Appy)
GCL Mets: R Gulf Coast League
DSL Mets: R Dominican Summer League
VSL Mets: R Venezuelan Summer league

Outfielders

A strength of the farm system just 2 seasons ago, outfield prospects are now very hard to find. Fernando tops the list, but it's very thin after him.

1. Fernando Martinez 10/10/88 (20.33) L/R (AA Binghamton .287/.340/.432/.772, 101 for 352, 48 runs, 19 2b, 4 3b, 8 HR, 43 RBI, 27/73 BB/K, 6/8 SBs, DWL Escogido .314/.376/.542/.919, 48 for 153, 26 runs, 7 2b, 5 3b, 6 HR, 26 RBI, 14/32 BB/K, 4/5 SBs, VWL Caracas .160/.250/.320/.570, 4 for 25, 4 runs, 2b, HR, RBI, 3/7 BB/K)

Total 2008 Stats: .289/.347/.458/.805, 153 for 530, 78 runs, 27 2b, 9 3b, 15 HR, 70 RBI, 10/13 SBs, 44/112 BB/K, .211 K rate, .3929 BB/K ratio

Splits courtesy www.minorleaguesplits.com

Fernando Martinez signed with the Mets during the IFA signing period of 2005 for a $1.4 million signing bonus. He started his pro career all the way in full season A ball, in Hagerstown, where he absolutely ripped it up, hitting .333/.389/.505/.894 (64 for 192, 24 runs, 14 2b, 2 3b, 5 HR, 28 RBI, 15/36 BB/K), for an excellent .4167 BB/K ratio, and a great .188 K rate (remember he was just 17 years old)

Fernando had just 24 ABs against LHP in Hagerstown, hitting a putrid .167/.310/.292/.602 (4 for 24, 3 2b, 4/4 BB/K), a very good 1.00 BB/K ratio, and an equally good .167 K rate. Against RHP, he hit a blistering .353/.404/.532/.936 (55 for 156, 9 2b, 2 3b, 5 HR, 12/29 BB/K), for a .4138 BB/K ratio, and a .186 K rate.

FMart was incredibly consistent in his rookie season, hitting .300+ in every month of the season (although he missed considerable time due to injury, getting just 94 ABs from May 1st to July 31st).

Martinez was sent to St. Lucie in August, finishing off his first year in pro ball at high A, where he hit just .193/.254/.387/.641 (23 for 119, 18 runs, 4 2b, 2 3b, 5 HR, 11 RBI, 6/24 BB/K), for a .2500 BB/K ratio, and a still very good .202 K rate. Martinez, by some metrics, outperformed his Hagerstown numbers (a .194 IsoP in St. Lucie vs a .172 in H-Town, for one). Nando hit .216/.259/.392/.651 vs LHP in St. Lucie (11 for 51, 3 HR, 2/14 BB/K), a .143 BB/K ratio, and an alarming rise to a .275 K rate. However, he controlled the zone better against RHP, as evidenced by his a .3637 BB/K ratio, and a very good .151 K rate. His other numbers, though, were not good, he hit .192/.259/.384/.643 (14 for 73, 4 2b, 2 3b, 2 HR, 4/11 BB/K).

Overall in 2006, Martinez hit .276/.336/.451/.787 (85 for 308, 16 2b, 4 3b, 10 HR, 22/59 BB/K) for a .3729 BB/K ratio, and an excellent .192 K rate. Against LHP, he hit .195/.271/.351/.622 (15 for 77, 3 2b, 3 HR, 6/19 BB/K), a .3157 BB/K ratio, with a corresponding .247 K rate. Versus RHP, he hit .303/.358/.485/.843 (70 for 231, 13 2b, 7 HR, 16/40 BB/K), with a .40 BB/K ratio, and a very good .173 K rate.

Despite posting extremely subpar numbers in St. Lucie (age/level aside), Martinez was promoted to Binghamton for the 2007 season, where he hit .271/.336/.377/.713 (64 for 236, 32 runs, 11 2b, 3b, 4 HR, 21 RBI, 20/51 BB/K), with a .3922 BB/K ratio, and a .216 K rate. HIs numbers improved a good deal versus LHP, he hit .263/.311/.368/.679 in 2007 (15 for 57, 3 2b, HR, 2/16 BB/K), with a very bad .125 BB/K ratio, and an equally bad .280 K rate. However, his improvement vs LHP came along with a vast reduction of his numbers against RHP. Martinez hit just .270/.342/.374/.716 (47 for 174, 7 2b, 3b, 3 HR, 18/33 BB/K), with a .5455 BB/K ratio, and a good .190 K rate.

Thankfully, the Mets let Fernando repeat AA in 2008, and he did put up better numbers across the board, with a .287/.340/.432/.772 line (101 for 352, 48 runs, 19 2b, 4 3b, 8 HR, 43 RBI, 27/73 BB/K, 6/8 SBs), for a .3699 BB/K ratio, and a corresponding .207 K rate. However, his IsoD was down from 65 in 2007 to 53 in 2008, but his IsoP (isolated power, SLG-AVG, or ((TB-1b)/ABs) did increase sharply from 106 in 2007 to 145 in 2008.

Fernando struggled mightily against LHP, hitting just .217/.298/.368/.665 (23 for 106, 15 runs, 5 2b, 3b, 3 HR, 18 RBI, 12/31 BB/K), with a .3871 BB/K ratio and a very very alarming .292 K rate. Against RHP, Fernando did much better, hitting .317/.360/.459/.819 (78 for 246, 33 runs, 14 2b, 3 3b, 5 HR, 25 RBI, 15/42 BB/K), with a .3571 BB/K ratio and a .171 K rate.

Fernando missed about 5 weeks with a hamstring injury this year, the third consecutive year he's missed time with injuries. While concerning, the one thing in his favor is his age, he's still just 20 years old, and will play all of the 2009 season at age 20, likely in Buffalo, the new AAA affiliate of the Mets. And don't forget, our very own franchise shortstop battled leg injuries for the better part of 3 years before turning into an iron man.

He finished off his 2008 season playing for Escogido in the Dominican Winter League, and excelled to the tune of a .314/.376/.542/.919 line in 153 ABs, flashing off the raw power that makes many salivate over his future. He also, for the first time in his career, displayed vastly above average platoon splits, hitting .318/.362/.591/.953 in 44 ABs vs LHP, and hitting .312/.382/.523/.905 in 109 ABs vs RHP.

Fernando has yet to remain healthy for a full minor league season, so despite having 3 seasons worth of experience in the system, much of his value remains projection. He did show off what he can do when healthy and in a groove during the 2008 Dominican Winter League season, where he hit a blistering .314/.376/.542/.919 with 18 XBH in just 153 ABs, but then he injured his right elbow during the CWS and had to be shut down. Still, it can be considered a good season for the still 20 year old, he blasted 15 HRs and 27 2b in 520 ABs. As he matures and fills out, it wouldn't be out of the question for him to develop 30+ HR power, along with hitting for a high average. Even if his numbers don't show it, Fernando can control the strike zone very well.

Fernando, who played a majority of LF for Escogido, profiles there as a major leaguer. His arm is above average, but not suited for right field, and he does not possess the range to play CF. He also does not possess blazing speed, most, if not all, of his steals will come due to smarts. Martinez will develop into a good+ offensive force, capable of hitting in the middle of a lineup, but the hype has reached such proportions that he'll be hard pressed to ever meet expectations.

THE FUTURE: Martinez should open 2009 in Buffalo (the Mets new AAA affiliate), hopefully playing a corner OF position since he won't be playing CF in the majors. Fernando, as we saw in ST, can stay in on lefties, but the numbers speak for themselves, and he must improve that .665 OPS vs LHP, lest he be labelled as a future platoon player. And keep in mind, Fernando will only be 20 as he begins AAA, he can safely repeat the level twice, and still be on pace to make his MLB debut at age 22 in 2011 (but we'll say he makes it up at some point in 2009).

2. Cesar Puello 4/1/91 (17.83) R/R (R GCL .305/.350/.364/.714, 46 for 151, 24 runs, 6 2b, HR, 17 RBI, 5/32 BB/K, 13/18 SBs, .212 K rate, .1563 BB/K ratio)

Puello was signed in the International Free Agent class which produced Wilmer Flores and Jefry Marte, and while yes, a lot of the press went to Flores, and then Marte, make no mistake, Met officials are very high on this young outfielder.

After a disasterous June in which Puello hit .242/.265/.273/.537 with 14 Ks in 33 ABs (.424 K rate), he turned around to hit .322/.372/.390 the rest of the way, with just 18 Ks in 118 ABs (a very good .153 K rate, and an equally impressive .2778 BB/K ratio (for a 17 year old))

Puello is a physical prospect who projects to have average tools across the board. He's an instinctive player who learns quickly. He fits best as a right fielder with a strong arm and the requisite power for the position.

Puello's obviously very raw in all facets of his game, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Puello needs to work on his timing, especially on breaking pitches, as he chases too many out of the zone. He has a good swing on balls in on him, and his swing is also conducive to hitting balls the other way (in time). He is still young, but his frame (6'2/195) should be conducive to power as he grows and fills out. Puello has some of the best raw speed in the system, and he stole 13 bases in 18 tries in 2008. That speed enables him to cover a plethora of ground in the outfield, and his plus plus arm makes him a perfect candidate for RF, where he played in the GCL.

It is much too soon to predict what type of player Puello will ultimately become, we should get a better sense of that after the 2009 season, which he will play at 18 years old, likely in Savannah. A level per year after that should put him on track for a 2013 debut, at age 22.

3. Kirk Nieuwenhuis 8/7/87 (21.5) L/R (Azusa Pacific .400/.496/.724/1.220, 90 for 225, 84 runs, 20 2b, 4 3b, 15 HR, 68 RBI, 34/34 BB/K, 8/11 SBs, A- Brooklyn .277/.348/.396/.744, 79 for 285, 34 runs, 15 2b, 5 3b, 3 HR, 29 RBI, 29/70 BB/K, 11/18 SBs)

Total 2008 Stats: .331/.415/.541/.956, 169 for 510, 118 runs, 35 2b, 9 3b, 18 HR, 97 RBI, 19/29 SBs, 63/104 BB/K, .204 K rate, .6057 BB/K ratio

Nieuwenhuis was drafted by the Mets in the 3rd round, 100th overall, out of Azusa Pacific University, where as a junior, he hit .400/.496/.724/1.220 in 225 ABs. After signing (for $360,000), he was sent to Brooklyn, where he hit .277/.348/.396, showing a decent eye at the plate (.4143 BB/K, .246 K rate), and decent power (keep in mind he bats lefty and Keyspan Park is death on lefty hitters, especially powerwise).

Nieuwenhuis should be opening 2009 in the St. Lucie outfield, potentially playing a corner, depending on if the Mets move Greg Veloz to center field.

Despite 70 Ks in 285 ABs, Nieuwenhuis has good plate discipline (he had a 1:1 BB/K in college). The reason for his high K rate is tied to his swing, which he needs to adjust for pro ball. As with most college players, he has some holes which metal bats covered up - and wood bats exposed. He has the frame for additional power (23 XBH in Brooklyn), which will come when he adjusts his swing to pro ball. He is a good runner who has above average speed, but needs to hone his instincts in steals (11 for 18). There's no reason why he couldn't eventually blossom into a 25+ SB man.

Due to his speed and athleticism, Nieuwenhuis can remain in CF for the time being, but it would behoove the Mets to get him experience in both corner OF spots to prepare him for an Endy Chavez like utility role in the majors. He has the arm and accuracy to play RF, and did so rarely in Brooklyn. If all breaks right, Nieuwenhuis could become a hitter (once again) in the Daniel Murphy/Josh Thole mold, high average, good OBP, line drive gap power, but unlike Murphy and Thole, Nieuwenhuis can also steal 25+ bases in a season. He should open 2009 in St. Lucie, then ascend a level per year, breaking into the majors on opening day 2012 as a backup.

4. Javier Rodriguez 4/4/90 (18.83) R/R (R GCL .193/.258/.237/.495, 26 for 135, 17 runs, 3 2b, HR, 20 RBI, 10/27 BB/K, .200 K rate, .3704 BB/K ratio)

The Mets took Rodriguez in the 2nd round of the 2008 draft, 68th overall, out of the Puerto Rico Baseball Academy. After signing (for $585,000), he was sent to the GCL, where he had a miserable third of a year, hitting for an OPS under .500, driving just 4 XBH in 135 ABs. Here is a predraft scouting report on Rodriguez:

Considered one of the better prospects in Puerto Rico heading into the Excellence Tournament that annually draws scouts to see the island's best talent each May, Rodriguez elevated his status after his strong showing there. He is the best pure hitter from Puerto Rico and has good bat speed. With a lean, athletic body, Rodriguez should have the ability to add muscle to his long frame. He shows above-average raw power to the pull side, though there is some length to his swing. Rodriguez is an average to above-average runner, clocking in at 6.7 seconds in the 60-yard dash. Reviews of his fielding are mixed, though his arm is above-average for both the length and carry he gets on the ball and for its accuracy.

It really would behoove the Mets to hold him back in extended ST and then place him either back in the GCL, or move him up to Kingsport (and even that may be too aggresive considering his line in the GCL), but knowing the Mets, there is a very good chance he ends up in Savannah to start the season.

5. Brahiam Maldonado 9/18/85 (23.43) R/R (A+ St. Lucie .232/.284/.327/.611, 63 for 272, 18 runs, 11 2b, 5 HR, 30 RBI, 15/76 BB/K, 6/7 SBs, .279 K rate, .1973 BB/K ratio)

Maldonado was drafted out of St. Francis High, in Puerto Rico, in the 10th round of the 2004 draft. He was sent to the GCL Mets as an 18 year old, and struggled, hitting .185/.272/.238/.510 (28 for 151, 21 runs, 3 2b, 3b, HR, 12 RBI, 15/49 BB/K, 8/10 SBs), with a decent .3061 BB/K ratio, but an absurdly high .325 K rate.

Maldonado repeated the GCL in 2005, and posted markedly better numbers, hitting .256/.355/.359/.714 (30 for 117, 23 runs, 7 2b, 3b, HR, 21 RBI, 17/36 BB/K, 8/9 SBs), with a much better .4722 BB/K ratio, and an improved, but still much too high, .308 K rate. He hit .259/.382/.407/.789 (7 for 27, 2b, HR, 5/12 BB/K) vs LHP, with a .4167 BB/K ratio, and an absurd .444 K rate. Against RHP, he hit .250/.336/.333/.669 (24 for 96, 6 2b, 3b, 12/27 BB/K), with a .4444 BB/K ratio, and a .281 K rate.

Maldonado was promoted to Kingsport of the short season Appalachian League, where he hit .281/.363/.500/.863 (52 for 185, 29 runs, 17 2b, 4 3b, 7 HR, 35 RBI, 23/49 BB/K, 5/7 SBs), with a .4694 BB/K ratio, and a vastly improved (but still moderately high) .265 K rate (159 K pace in 600 ABs). Against LHP, he hit .246/.338/.574/.912 (15 for 61, 4 2b, 2 3b, 4 HR, 8/14 BB/K), with a .5714 BB/K ratio, and a .230 K rate. Against RHP, he hit a robust .298/.376/.508/.884 (37 for 124, 13 2b, 2 3b, 3 HR, 15/35 BB/K), with a .4286 BB/K ratio, and a very high .282 K rate. Maldonado hit markedly better at home (.362/.425/.628/1.053) then on the road (.198/.302/.429/.731)

2007 saw Maldonado in full season ball for the first time in his career (minus a 16 AB cameo for St. Lucie in 2005). He was in Savannah, where he hit extremely well, putting together a .310/.349/.500/.849 line (95 for 306, 40 runs, 20 2b, 4 3b, 10 HR, 39 RBI, 19/79 BB/K, 11/15 SBs), with a severely declining .2405 BB/K ratio, but a slightly improved .258 K rate. Strangely, Maldonado continued to struggle mightily against LHP, hitting just .224/.286/.395/.681 (17 for 76, 5 2b, 3b, 2 HR, 7/27 BB/K), with a .2593 BB/K ratio, and an abysmal .355 K rate. Against RHP, Maldonado fared much better, hitting .339/.370/.535/.905 (78 for 230, 15 2b, 3 3b, 8 HR, 12/52 BB/K), with a .2308 BB/K ratio, and a much better .226 K rate. For the second straight season, Maldonado hit much better at home (.338/.379/.606/.985), then on the road (.287/.322/.409/.731).

Maldonado spent his age 22 season with the St. Lucie Mets of the Florida State League, where he had a dreadful year, hitting just .232/.284/.327/.611 (63 for 272, 18 runs, 11 2b, 5 HR, 30 RBI, 15/76 BB/K, 6/7 SBs), with a not good .1974 BB/K ratio, and an equally bad .279 K rate. This year, Maldonado hit better against LHP (.262/.340/.333/.674, 22 for 84, 5 runs, 3 2b, HR, 6 RBI, 7/22 BB/K), and struggled against RHP (.218/.258/.324/.582, 41 for 188, 13 runs, 8 2b, 4 HR, 24 RBI, 8/54 BB/K). Maldonado's BB/K ratio was .3182 against LHP, and a woeful .1481 against RHP. He struck out at a .262 clip vs southpaws, and a .287 clip against righties.

THE FUTURE: A disappointing year for Maldonado certainly clouds his future considerably. We'll say the Mets keep him in St. Lucie for his age 23 season, which puts him about a half year or so behind the optimal age/level curve (21-22 A+, 22-23 AA). This is not to say he's not a good prospect, just that he lost a considerable amount of his luster with his subpar 2008.

6. Raul Reyes 12/30/86 (22.08) L/L (A Savannah 14 for 47, 2 runs, 3 2b, 3b, HR, 5 RBI, 2/15 BB/K, .298/.327/.468/.795, .319 K rate, .1333 BB/K ratio)

The Mets signed Reyes prior to the 2005 season, then sent the 18 year old to the Dominican Summer League, where he hit .263 in 71 games, with 33 runs scored, 30 RBI, 12 2b, 3 3b, 4 HR, and 6 SB. In 2006, Reyes played for the Kingsport Mets of the Appalachian League, hitting .273/.393/.413 in 37 games. He had 10 2b, 2 3b, HR, 18 RBI, 20/34 BB/K, and 3 steals in 5 tries.

For the 2007 season, Reyes was bumped up to the New York Penn League, where he struggled, hitting .233/.321/.423, and striking out an alarming 94 times in just 253 ABs. In twice the ABs he got in Kport, Reyes had 13 2b, 4 3b, 9 HR, 33 RBI, and 9 steals in 15 tries. He projects best as a .265-.280 hitter with considerable power at the top of the order. Reyes has very good speed, which like the other parts of his game, is still raw and unrefined (career 60% SB success rate (12 of 20)). He uses his speed to cover huge swaths of ground in the outfield.

Despite struggling mightily in Brooklyn, the Mets saw fit to promote Reyes to Savannah for the 2008 season, where he got off to a good start, hitting .298/.327/.468/.795 in 47 ABs before fracturing his right ankle on April 16th, and missing the remainder of the season.

7. Dan Stegall 9/24/87 (22.33) L/R (A Savannah .196/.252/.308/.561, 21 for 107, 13 runs, 2b, 4 3b, HR, 9 RBI, 6/33 BB/K, 2/4 SBs, R Kingsport .295/.365/.418/.783, 36 for 122, 16 runs, 6 2b, 3 HR, 13 RBI, 13/26 BB/K)

Total 2008 Stats: .249/.313/.367/.680, 57 for 229, 29 runs, 7 2b, 4 3b, 4 HR, 22 RBI, 19/59 BB/K, 3/6 SBs, .257 K rate, .3220 BB/K ratio)

The Mets drafted Stegall in the 7th round of the 2006 draft, 214th overall, out of Greenwood High School in Arkansas, after hitting .500 his senior year. A two sport star in high school, Stegall featured a low to mid 90s fastball from the right side, but the Mets were drawn to his outfield abilities, not the power arm.

Upon drafting him, they sent him to the Gulf Coast League, where he hit .214/.324/.262/.586 in 40 games, 145 ABs. He split the 2007 between full season A ball Savannah, and short-season rookie ball Kingsport, hitting a combined .213/.293/.280/.573, 130 games, 103 for 483, 55 runs, 16 2b, 8 3b, 41 RBI, 20/29 SBs, 51/122 BB/K, with a decent enough .253 K rate, and a acceptable .4180 BB/K ratio.

8. Rafael Fernandez 8/3/88 (20.5) L/L (R Kingsport .259/.332/.399/.731, 59 for 228, 41 runs, 10 2b, 5 3b, 4 HR, 31 RBI, 24/69 BB/K, 4/8 SBs, .303 K rate, .3478 BB/K ratio)

The Mets signed Fernandez as an international free agent during the 2006 International Free Agent signing period. He played in the DSL in 2006, hitting .216/.316/.320/.636 (50 for 231, 30 runs, 7 2b, 3b, 5 HR, 43 RBI, 34/53 BB/K, 6/8 SBs, .229 K rate, .6415 BB/K ratio.

He missed virtually all of the 2007 season, getting just 8 ABs in the GCL, before returning to action in 2008 with Kingsport at age 19/20, where he hit .259/.332/.399/.731 in 228 ABs, with a much too high .303 K rate, and a significantly lowered .3478 BB/K ratio.

9. Gabriel Zavala 5/14/87 (21.75) R/R (R Kingsport .250/.289/.475/.764, 30 for 120, 18 runs, 13 2b, 3b, 4 HR, 18 RBI, 3/48 BB/K, .400 K rate, .0625 BB/K ratio)

The Mets signed Zavala as an International Free Agent in 2004, and after spending 2 seasons with the VSL Mets, he came stateside in 2007, playing for the Gulf Coast League Mets, and having a very good "rookie" season. He showed good tools with his bat, hitting .285, and also flashed very good power, hitting 8 doubles, 3 triples, and 6 hr in only 165 AB.

10. Pedro Zapata 10/3/87 (21.33) R/R (R Kingsport .221/.257/.248/.505, 50 for 226, 24 runs, 4 2b, 3b, 15 RBI, 8/56 BB/K, 12/14 SBs, .248 K rate, .1429 BB/K ratio)

Zapata was signed prior to the 2007 season out of the Dominican Republic. While playing in the DSL, Zapata displayed his excellent speed and ability to hit for average. We should know more about Zapata once he starts playing in the states.