MPH System Audit IV, Part I: Introduction and Outfielders

MPH System Audit IV

Welcome to the 2010 MetsProspectHub System Audit. This year, I consulted 3 other people to get their opinions and feelings. Of course, David, my cowriter (well, you know) and co-founder of MPH, and then a couple of very good friends, Joey DeMayo of NYbaseballdigest.com, and Daniel Wexler (http://www.nleastchatter.com/realdirtymets/)

2009 was a total mess...on the major league side. Mess really doesn't even begin to cover what happened to the New York Mets in 2009, but that's in the rearview mirror. On the minor league side, however, 2009 was one of the best seasons in a long time, and 2010 promises to be significantly more exciting. For the first time in what seems like forever, the Mets did not strip off any prospects during 2009, leaving a nice stable of VERY exciting prospects. Talking to Joe, Dan and David, none of them can remember the last time the Mets had this many prospects across the top 3 levels. Below are writeups on most of them.

MPH's Position by Position Prospect Analysis and Ranking
-featuring contributions from David, Dan and Joe, written by Tejesh
-thanks to NYFS (www.nyfuturestars.com) for having up to date player profile capsules with relevant information handy!
-B/T is next to age and is in that order
-prospect eligibility for MPH is hitherto defined as 200 ABs or 100 IP in the majors, without regard to days spent on the roster

Affiliate Guide (2009):

Buffalo: AAA International League (new)
Binghamton: AA Eastern League
St. Lucie: A+ Florida State League
Savannah: A South Atlantic League (Sally)
Brooklyn: A- New York Penn League (Penn)
Kingsport: R Appalachian League (Appy)
GCL Mets: R Gulf Coast League
DSL Mets: R Dominican Summer League
VSL Mets: R Venezuelan Summer league

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OUTFIELDERS
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1. AAA/MLB OF Fernando Martinez L/R 10/10/88 (AAA Buffalo .290/.337/.540/.877, 51 for 176, 24 runs, 16 2b, 2 3b, 8 HR, 28 RBI, 11/33 BB/K, 2/3 SBs, MLB New York .176/.242/.275/.517, 16 for 91, 11 runs, 6 2b, HR, 8 RBI, 5/14 BB/K, 2 SBs)

Total 2009 Stats: .251/.304/.449/.754, 67 for 267, 35 runs, 22 2b, 2 3b, 9 HR, 36 RBI, 4/5 SBs, 16/47 BB/K

The Mets signed Fernando out of the Dominican in the IFA signing period of 2005 for 1.3 million, and since then, he's made a slow trek through the system (due to injuries), but last season cracked through to the major leagues. He started off in Hagerstown in 2006, spent two seasons (2007, 2008) in Binghamton, and last season played in Buffalo, and had a 91 AB stint with the Mets.

Fernando got hurt again in 2009, but managed to make his major league debut after having a torrid month of May in Buffalo (.337/.378/.663/1.041, 31 for 92, 17 runs, 7 2b, 3b, 7 HR, 20 RBI, 6/12 BB/K). He injured himself trying to make a diving catch in Milwaukee, playing CF, and did not appear in a game again.

Fernando still has a very high ceiling, despite being around forever, he will play all of 2010 at the age of 22, which is right on target for AAA, which is where he should play the entire season. Fernando still has considerable power projection left to all fields, as he displays during BP. As we saw in 2009, Fernando is faster then we we led to believe, and he can definitely play center field, something we were told he couldn't do (ok, ok, one epic fall/slide aside), he was solid filling in for Beltran. He should also steal between 15 and 25 bases in a season, definitely not a slouch. He still projects as an above average offensive player, no matter what OF spot he ultimately ends up playing.

THE FUTURE: Fernando made his MB debut in 2009, but should open 2010 in Buffalo, and hopefully will spnd all of the upcoming season there, before being permanently inserted into the lineup in 2011.

2. A+/AA OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis L/R 8/7/87 (A+ St. Lucie .274/.357/.467/.824, 132 for 482, 91 runs, 35 2b, 5 3b, 16 HR, 71 RBI, 53/118 BB/K, 16/20 SBs, AA Binghamton .406/.472/.656/1.128, 13 for 32, 8 runs, 3 2b, 3b, HR, 2 RBI, 4/9 BB/K, 1/2 SBs)

Total 2009 Stats: .282/.364/.479/.843, 145 for 514, 99 runs, 38 2b, 6 3b, 17 HR, 73 RBI, 57/127 BB/K, 17/22 SBs, .247 K rate, .4488 BB/K ratio

The Mets drafted Nieuwenhuis out of Azusa Pacific University in the 3rd round of the 2008 draft, and he spent his rookie season with Brooklyn, before being bumped up to St. Lucie for 2009, where he got off to an uneven beginning.

Nieuwenhuis had one of the hottest stretches in all of minor league ball during the second half of 2009. Between July 8th and September 2nd, Kirk hit a blistering .340/.411/.602/1.013 (70 for 206, 47 runs, 20 2b, 5 3b, 8 HR, 40 RBI, 24/48 BB/K). He ended his season in Binghamton where he didn't slow down, hitting .406/.472/.656/1.128 in 32 ABs.

Nieuwenhuis, as we saw in 2009, hits tons of XBH. Of his 145 hits, 61 of them (42.06%) were for extra bases (38 2b, 6 3b, 17 HR). He hits the ball well to all fields, and is a gap to gap hitter , but he struggles against LHP (just .233/.297/.346/.642 in 2009 in St. Lucie), and he also Ks a ton (127 Ks in 514 ABs), but provides good production from the outfield to make up for it, and is a possible 20-20 or 25-25-25 player. Nieuwenhuis has a good arm and probably profiles best as a right fielder, but for at least 2010, he will play center.

THE FUTURE: Kirk had a 32 AB cameo in Binghamton at the tail end of 2009, and this is where he will play most (if not all) of 2010. He should end his season in Arizona, and that sets him up to be a callup sometime in 2011.

3. R OF Cesar Puello R/R 4/1/91 (R Kingsport .296/.373/.423/.796, 58 for 196, 37 runs, 10 2b, 5 HR, 23 RBI, 10/51 BB/K, 15/20 SBs)

The Mets signed three IFAs in 2007, Wilmer Flores, Jefry Marte, and this guy, Cesar Puello. The other two were rushed further then Puello, who's been handled carefully, with good results. Puello played the 08 and 09 seasons in short season rookie ball, 08 in the GCL, and 09 in Kingsport.

Puello spent the 2009 season in short season rookie ball, playing for the Kingsport Mets of the Appalachian League, where he hit .296/.373/.423/.796 in 196 ABs. As he did in 2008, Puello got off to a slow start in 2009, hitting just .265/.324/.294/.618 in 34 June ABs, before coming on strong. From July 1st to the end of the season, Puello hit extremely well, .302/.383/.451/.833, though he was hit by 12 pitches in that span, inflating his OBP by 44 points.

Much of Puello's offensive game is still projection, as he's a) just 18, and b) has yet to cross the 200 AB barrier. He does have some pop in his bat, as evidenced by the .423 SLG and 127 IsoP, but he needs to refine his strike zone discipline in order to maximize his tools (again, he's just 18, so he has time to do that). Unlike most hitters, Puello can recognize offspeed/breaking pitches, which should help him transition to fullseason this season. Puello has good speed, as evidenced by his 15/20 success rate in steals in 2009. Puello also has a strong arm, so much so that the Mets used him exclusively in RF in 2009, and will do so again in 2010. He has very good range, owing to his speed.

THE FUTURE: Puello should open 2010 in Savannah, and he most likely will spend the whole season there (at age 19), but it wouldn't be a shock to see him end in St. Lucie. Conservative promotions from there should have him spend his age 20 season there, age 21 in Binghamton, age 22 in Buffalo, and then age 23 breaking into the majors (2014).

4. A+ OF Brahiam Maldonado R/R 9/18/85 (A+ St. Lucie .273/.348/.466/.813, 112 for 410, 62 runs, 19 2b, 3 3b, 18 HR, 73 RBI, 43/126 BB/K, 13/17 SBs)

The Mets drafted Brahiam Maldonado in the 10th round of the 2004 draft out of St. Francis High in Puerto Rico. After being drafted, Maldonado spent two seasons in the GCL, then Kingsport (2006), Savannah (2007), then the last two seasons in St. Lucie (08 and 09).

Maldonado enjoyed a second half rebirth of his prospect status, after for all the world looking like a total flameout. After hitting a pathetic .226/.277/.377/.653 over the first two months of the season, Maldonado EXPLODED, blistering the FSL to the tune of a .299/.384/.515/.900

Maldonado still strikes out at an extreme clip, over .300 again this season, and it will be this flaw which permanently puts the kabosh on his resurrected prospect status in 2010. He's got good speed and a good enough arm to play the corner outfield spots, but neither is anythign special.

THE FUTURE: Maldonado will definitely open 2010 with the BMets, and as I said, his fatal K rate will serve to permanently destroy his resurrected prospect status, unless, of course, he can bring it under control somehow. If he does, he should be poised to make his major league debut sometime in late 2011 or 2012.

5. A+/AA OF Carlos Guzman L/R 5/24/86 (A+ St. Lucie .290/.347/.453/.800, 137 for 472, 59 runs, 28 2b, 2 3b, 15 HR, 64 RBI, 39/95 BB/K, 6/11 SBs, AA Binghamton .130/.200/.261/.461, 3 for 23, 2 runs, HR, 3 RBI, 1/7 BB/K)

Total 2009 Stats: .283/.340/.444/.785, 140 for 495, 61 runs, 28 2b, 2 3b, 16 HR, 67 RBI, 40/102 BB/K, 6/11 SBs

Guzman was signed as a UDFA out of Brookdale Community College in 2006, and since has been mostly unheralded, first in the GCL in 2007, then Savannah (08), before exploding onto the scene in 2009 with a terrific first two months in St. Lucie.

Guzman launched himself onto prospect lists with a vengence in 2009, setting career highs in every offensive category, all while playing a good corner outfield. Guzman started off hot in St. Lucie, hitting .300/.354/.498 through the first two months of the season before falling into a deep slump (.220/.282/.370) over his next two months, before having the best month of his season in August, a blistering .396/.446/.523 which earned him a 23 AB cameo in Binghamton, where he should play all of 2010.

Guzman is a fastball hitter who has trouble with advanced breaking pitches, which should hamper him in 2010, unless he improves. He began switch hitting this year, and that is a definite work in progress, as he hit just .202/.305/.219/.525 from the right side of the plate. Guzman is a decent runner and athlete, and also has decent range, but he has a good arm, his best asset on the defensive side of the ball.

THE FUTURE: Guzman, as we said, will open 2010 in Binghamton, where his fringy prospect status will be put to the test by advanced offspeed pitches. If he passes the test, he will face another in 2011 at the AAA level, and if he passes that, he will make his MLB debut in 2012, likely as a power bat off the bench.

6. A/A+ OF Sean Ratliff L/L 2/24/87 (A Savannah .265/.312/.451/.763, 124 for 468, 64 runs, 28 2b, 7 3b, 15 HR, 68 RBI, 31/131 BB/K, 11/17 SBs, A+ St. Lucie .286/.286/.357/.643, 8 for 28, 3 runs, 2 2b, 6 RBI, 10 Ks)

Total 2009 Stats: .266/.311/.446/.756, 132 for 496, 67 runs, 30 2b, 7 3b, 15 HR, 74 RBI, 11/17 SBs, 31/141 BB/K, .284 K rate, .2199 BB/K ratio

Ratliff was drafted in the 4th round of the 2008 draft out of Stanford, and spent his rookie season in Brooklyn, before opening 2009 in fullseason ball, with Savannah.

Ratliff spent the vast majority of the season in Savannah where he had bursts of great production (.346 thru his first 26 games, .552 in the final week of April, .321 in May), but he was also ICE cold for long stretches of time, ending up with pedestrian numbers at age 22 in the Sally League.

Ratliff needs to cut down on his strikeouts, and also find a more consistent approach, as his wild fluxuations in production last season show. Ratliff profiles best as a left fielder, since he doesn't have the range for center (even though he spent most of 2009 playing center for Savannah), or the arm for right. He's got average speed at best, and the 11 steals he had last season should be close to his max output.

THE FUTURE: Ratliff should open 2010 in St. Lucie, and a level per season after means he should be in position to make the majors sometime in 2012. However, his high K totals may serve to derail him, much as Brahiam Maldonado.

7. 7. A- Nick Santomauro L/R 6/13/88 (A- Brooklyn .241/.368/.441/.809, 35 for 145, 18 runs, 5 2b, 3 3b, 6 HR, 21 RBI, 28/38 BB/K, 1/5 SBs)

Santomauro was drafted in the 10th round of the 2009 draft out of Dartmouth, and spent his rookie season in Brooklyn, where he didn't hit for much of an average, but showed very good periphials (127 IsoP, 200 IsoD).

Santomauro has good natural power (as his 200 IsoP indicates), but he does need to work on hiting for average. His eye is good (127 IsoD), and that should help him when he makes the jump to high A in 2010. He has good speed, but isn't a basestealer, he's more of a 1st to 3rd on a single type runner. His speed helps him cover ground in the outfield, but he sometimes takes bad routes to the ball. Santomauro, like Ratliff, is best profiled as a left fielder.

THE FUTURE: Santomauro should open 2010 in St. Lucie, and I expect him to have a breakout much like Kirk Nieuwenhuis did (although Kirk is definitely much more toolsy then Nick). A level per season after that puts him in the majors sometime in 2012/2013.

8. 8. A- Luis Rivera R/R 10/12/86 (A- Brooklyn .297/.402/.441/.844, 66 for 222, 38 runs, 14 2b, 3 3b, 4 HR, 34 RBI, 37/53 BB/K, 13/16 SBs)

9. R Darrell Ceciliani 6/22/90 (R Kingsport .234/.313/.310/.623, 37 for 158, 29 runs, 6 2b, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 13/31 BB/K, 14/16 SBs)

Ceciliani was taken in the 4th round of the 2009 draft out of Columbia Basin College in Washington State, and after signing, was sent to Kingsport where he showed flashes of the type of player he could be in the future, hitting .303/.361/.447/.809 in 76 July ABs, with 5 2b, 2 HR and 8 steals. However, outside of that one month, he was abysmal.

Ceciliani is a slap hitter who uses his speed to his advantage, he won't hit for much power, but he will be a threat on the bases. Ceciliani also uses his speed to be a plus defender in center field, and he's got the arm for the position, too. Ceciliani's best comp would be Juan Pierre.

THE FUTURE: Ceciliani should open 2010 with Savannah, and ascending a level per season after that puts him on track for a debut sometime in 2013.

10. R Chase Greene R/R 4/22/90 (R GCL .286/.361/.397/.758, 18 for 63, 7 2b, 5 RBI, 7/10 BB/K, 2 SBs)

The Mets took Greene in the 16th round out of West Boca Raton High in Florida, and assigned him to the GCL, where he performed very well. Greene projects much as Ceciliani does, a speedy slap hitter who profiles best as a leadoff hitter and centerfielder with plus range.

THE FUTURE: Greene should open 2010 with either Savannah, or Kingsport, and depending on which it is, that will determine when he's in a position to make his MLB debut. It will either be in 2013 or 2014.