Thursday, March 25, 2010

MPH System Audit IV: Part II: Corner Infielders


1. A+/AA 1B Ike Davis L/L 3/22/87 (A+ St. Lucie .288/.376/.486/.863, 64 for 222, 28 runs, 17 2b, 3 3b, 7 HR, 28 RBI, 31/52 BB/K, AA Binghamton .309/.386/.565/.951, 64 for 207, 30 runs, 14 2b, 13 HR, 43 RBI, 26/60 BB/K, BWC .333/.444/.767, 10 for 30, 10 runs, 2 2b, 3b, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 6/11 BB/K, AFL Surprise .341/.394/.565/.958, 29 for 85, 13 runs, 7 2b, 4 HR, 16 RBI, 8/23 BB/K)

Total 2009 Stats: .307/.387/.544/.931, 167 for 544, 81 runs, 40 2b, 4 3b, 27 HR, 92 RBI, 71/146 BB/K, .268 K rate, .4863 BB/K ratio

Ike Davis was the Mets first pick in the 2008 draft, 18th overall, out of Arizona State, and he was sent to Brooklyn after signing, where he endured a miserable season, hitting a pathetic .256/.326/.326/.652 in 215 ABs, with just 15 2b and 0 HR.

However, Davis exploded in 2009, mashing the cover off the ball no matter where he was, St. Lucie, Binghamton, the Baseball World Classic, or Arizona. He ended up with one of the best overall seasons a Mets prospect has had in a long time, with 40 2b and 27 HR.

Ike has tremendous power (um, as we saw on his absurd BOMB to right field in St. Lucie), and especially to the pull side. He has issues hitting lefties (.200/.234/.283/.518 in the FSL, but he did turn that around to hit .268/.342/.465/.807 in the EL). Davis is a very good first basemen, but as we've seen this spring, he does have some kinks to work out. His arm is very good, and it's likely he could man left field if he needed to (he doesn't have the range for RF, especially @ Citifield).

THE FUTURE: Davis, despite his big spring so far, should open 2010 in the minors, likely in Buffalo, though a return to Binghamton wouldn't be a total shock. What also wouldn't be be a total shock is Ike taking 1b from Daniel Murphy by midseason. Still, we'll say he'll be the 2011 opening day 1b.

2. AAA/AA/MLB 1B/OF Nick Evans R/R 1/30/86 (AAA Buffalo .211/.280/.414/.693, 50 for 237, 27 runs, 12 2b, 3 3b, 10 HR, 30 RBI, 23/55 BB/K, AA Binghamton .276/.350/.467/.817, 29 for 105, 16 runs, 9 2b, 3b, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 10/22 BB/K, 2 SBs, MLB New York, .231/.275/.385/.660, 15 for 65, 5 runs, 5 2b, 3b, HR, 7 RBI, 4/20 BB/K, AFL Surprise .171/.216/.371/.588, 6 for 35, 4 runs, 2b, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 2/11 BB/K)

Total 2009 stats: .226/.289/.419/.708, 100 for 442, 52 runs, 27 2b, 5 3b, 16 HR, 50 RBI, 39/108 BB/K, .244 K rate, .3611 BB/K ratio

Nick Evans was drafted in the 5th round of the 2004 draft out of St. Mary's High in Arizona. After toiling through the system for 5 years, Evans made his MLB debut in 2008, but opened 2009 in BUffalo.

EVans endured a tumultuous 2009, after getting off to a sub .100 start in Buffalo, he was demoted to extended spring, then Binghamton, where he recovered his stroke (.817 OPS). Still, for whatever reason, as the major league season progressed to the point of absurdity, Evans did not receive any meaningful playing time, in favor of stiffs like Cory Sullivan and Fernando Tatis. Evans, despite his terrible season, did hit 16 HR and 27 2b in 442 ABs, showing very good power.

THE FUTURE: He should open 2010 in Buffalo playing LF/RF/1b, and hopefully he gets another real crack at the majors. Keep in mind he hit .329/.390/.529/.919 against lefties in 2009 in the majors.

3. A+/AA 3b Zach Lutz R/R 6/3/86 (A+ St. Lucie .284/.381/.441/.822, 101 for 356, 46 runs, 19 2b, 2 3b, 11 HR, 62 RBI, 50/72 BB/K, AA Binghamton .207/.324/.241/.565, 6 for 29, 2b, 2 RBI, 5/7 BB/K)

Total 2009 Stats: .278/.376/.426/.802, 107 for 385, 46 runs, 20 2b, 2 3b, 11 HR, 64 RBI, 55/79 BB/K

Lutz was drafted in the 5th round of the 2007 draft out of Alvernia University, and injuries have severely hampered him throughout his minor league career, but when he's been healthy, he's hit. For the majority of the 2009 season, he was healthy, and showed what he could do.

Lutz was healthy for the first time in his career in 2009, and after a slow start in St. Lucie (.230/.370/.391/.761 thru the end of May), Lutz took off thereafter, ripping the FSL to the tune of .301/.384/.457/.842 and earning a cup of coffee with Binghamton.

Lutz can hit, he is a very disciplined hitter (50/72 BB/K in St. Lucie, 5/7 in Binghamton), who sprays the ball gap to gap and has good HR power. Due to concurrent ankle injuries in 2007 and 2008, Lutz' speed, such that it was, is not an asset at all. As with his hitting, he's an intelligent runner who won't run himself into many outs. Lutz is a decent defender at 3b, with good range to his left (backhand) side. Overall, Lutz should be a very good player, but it likely will not be with the Mets (Wright/Davis).

THE FUTURE: Lutz ended 2009 in Binghamton and that's where he wants to go (not way down in Kokomo) in 2010 (I apologize for the horrible joke). Figuring 2011 will be spent in Buffalo, we'll say he makes his MLB debut sometime in 2011. Lutz will have to be put onto the 40 man roster at the end of this season, or be eligible for the Rule V draft (it's 2006 HS and 2007 college this year).

4. R/A- Richard Lucas 11/2/88 R/R (R GCL .333/.400/.500/.900, 6 for 18, run, 3 2b, 3 RBI, 2/5 BB/K, R Kingsport .357/.471/.622/1.094, 35 for 98, 28 runs, 12 2b, 3b, 4 HR, 21 RBI, 20/20 BB/K, A- Brooklyn .250/.319/.400/.719, 15 for 60, 4 runs, 5 2b, 2 3b, 6 RBI, 7/14 BB/K)

Total 2009 Stats: .318/.414/.534/.948, 56 for 176, 33 runs, 20 2b, 3 3b, 4 HR, 30 RBI, 29/39 BB/K, 3/6 SBs

Lucas was drafted in the 4th round of the 2009 draft, out of Wolfson High in Florida. After struggling through his first two seasons with the Mets, he turned it on big time in 2009.

Lucas had a terrific 2009 season, his 3rd in the organization. He was injured to start, and then received the bulk of his playing time this season in Kingsport, where he oblierated the Appy League and showed tremendous plate discipline (20/20 BB/K) and outstanding power (.622 SLG, 17 XBH in 98 ABs).

Lucas has natural ability to hit the ball to all fields, and shows good power doing so. As mentioned, he's got very good plate discipline, which allows him to wait for his pitch and then hit it hard somewhere. Defensively, Lucas is an average 3rd baseman, with a steady arm.

THE FUTURE: Coming off a terrific season, Lucas will likely open 2010 in Savannah manning 3rd base (hopefully with Jefry Marte at 1st!), and then a level per season should have him in position to make his debut sometime in 2013, or 2014 at the latest.

5. AA 1B Lucas Duda L/R 2/3/86 (AA Binghamton .281/.380/.428/.808, 111 for 395, 49 runs, 29 2b, 3b, 9 HR, 53 RBI, 61/91 BB/K, AFL Surprise .400/.500/.600/1.100, 2 for 5, run, 2b, 2 RBI, BB)

Total 2009 Stats: .283/.381/.430/.811, 113 for 400, 50 runs, 30 2b, 3b, 9 HR, 55 RBI, 62/91 BB/K, .228 K rate, .6813 BB/K ratio

Duda was drafted in the 7th round of the 2007 draft out of USC. He spent the remainder of the 2007 season in Brooklyn, before moving to the FSL in 2008, where he had a very down year.

Duda rebounded off a down 2008 season to post career highs in 2b and HR, but he still hasn't shown off the power one would expect from someone as big as he is (6'4/225). Duda vastly improved his BB/K ratio from 2008 (.5516 to .6703). Duda cannot hit lefty pitching to save his life (.192/.283/.225/.508 in 120 ABs)

As seen throughout his minor league career, especially in 2007 and 2009, Duda's got a very good notion of the strike zone. Duda is a line drive gap to gap hitter, but he did start hitting for more power late in the season in Binghamton. Duda's an average defensive 1b, and adequate in LF, but he won't win many (if any) games with his defense.

THE FUTURE: Duda likely could handle being the lefty part of a MLB platoon right now, but he will instead attempt to gain a clue against LHP in AAA in 2010. He's not on the 40 man roster, so he likely won't be called up this season, and he doesn't have to be put on the 40 man roster until the end of this season.

6. A 3b Jefry Marte R/R 6/21/91 (A Savannah .233/.279/.338/.617, 113 for 485, 58 runs, 21 2b, 6 3b, 6 HR, 41 RBI, 25/117 BB/K, 5/10 SBs)

The Mets signed Jefry Marte in the IFA signing period of 2007, along with OF Cesar Puello and SS Wilmer Flores. He was sent to the GCL in 2008 and had a banner rookie season, and then endured an awful 2009.

Marte had a dismal season in 2009, both offensively and defensively. Besides hitting for just a .617 OPS, Marte made 49 errors in 123 games, and keep in mind he DHed a few games, too. However, also keep in mind he played the season at age 17/18. And, for his age relative to level, he had an OK offensive season, and there were points where he was downright impressive. Combining his April, June and July numbers, roughly half his season, he hit .271/.315/.385/.700 (81 for 299, 42 runs, 15 2b, 5 3b, 3 HR, 30 RBI, 17/71 BB/K). However, the downside to that, of course, is that in the other 186 ABs, Marte hit .172/.222/.263/.486.

Marte, as we saw last year (.532 SLG, 21 XBH in 154 ABs), Marte's got impressive raw power, which should be enhanced as he physically matures. However, the lack of any approach curtailed his power numbers significantly (.2136 BB/K). He mostly pulls the ball, which leaves him vunerable to breaking balls away. Defensively, he's a mess, with not much lateral movement, and a strong, but unpredictable, arm at third.

THE FUTURE: Marte likely will open 2010 back in Savannah, this time either outright as the teams 1b, or in a 1b/3b platoon with Richard Lucas. Assuming some growth as a hitter, Marte should open 2011 in St. Lucie, and ascend a level per year, making his MLB debut sometime in 2013. A more conservative approach would give him time to repeat a level along the way (again), pushing his debut back to 2014.

7. A/A+ 1b/3b Stefan Welch L/R 8/12/88 (A Savannah .239/.271/.359/.630, 22 for 92, 7 runs, 3 2b, 3b, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 4/19 BB/K, A+ St. Lucie .278/.350/.412/.762, 60 for 216, 38 runs, 10 2b, 2 3b, 5 HR, 37 RBI, 20/37 BB/K)

Total 2009 Stats: .266/.327/.396/.724, 82 for 308, 45 runs, 13 2b, 3 3b, 7 HR, 47 RBI, 24/56 BB/K

8. R 1b/3b/LF Charlie Hinojosa R/R 1/16/89 (R GCL .323/.387/.441/.828, 41 for 127, 10 runs, 12 2b, HR, 15 RBI, 9/30 BB/K)

9. R 3b Aderlin Rodriguez R/R 11/18/91 (R GCL .290/.389/.387/.776, 18 for 62, 5 runs, 3 2b, HR, 10 RBI, 9/15 BB/K, 12 errors in 17 games (he also DHed some))

Aderlin Rodriguez made his pro debut in 2009, playing in the GCL. He had an OK offensive season, and showed off some good plate discipline (.6000 BB/K at age 17), but no power and was a total mess in the field.

Aderlin is a big kid (6'3/210), and should show off more power as he gains strength and grows into his frame. Aderlin has a strong arm and should develop into a good defensive 3b, but he's extremely raw right now.

THE FUTURE: Aderlin will likely open 2010 in Kingsport (since he's blocked in Savannah), although there is a possibility he could open in Brooklyn, which would shorten his development schedule by one season (the Mets like jumping prospects from Kingsport to Savannah, and from Brooklyn to St. Lucie). If he opens 2010 in Kingsport, his MLB debut will likely occur in the 2014 season, if he opens in Brooklyn, it would be in 2013 (assuming no setbacks with performance)

10. AA 3b Shawn Bowman R/R 12/9/84 (AA Binghamton: .294/.346/.458/.804, 102 for 347, 42 runs, 24 2b, 3 3b, 9 HR, 44 RBI, 25/101 BB/K, .291 K rate, .2475 BB/K ratio, BWC: .291/.381/.491, 16 for 55, 9 runs, 2 2b, 3 HR, 15 RBI, 8/18 BB/K)

Total 2009 Stats: .294/.351/.463/.813, 118 for 402, 51 runs, 26 2b, 3 3b, 12 HR, 59 RBI, 33/119 BB/K, .296 K rate, .2773 BB/K ratio

Bowman was drafted in the 12th round of the 2002 draft, and by 2005, was one of the Mets top prospects, and was rumored to be "moving David Wright to first base". That never happened, as Bowman instead succumbed to a series of debilitating back injuries over the next 3 years. He made a comeback over the last 2 seasons, and has landed back onto the radar, but time is against him, unfortunately, as is Ike Davis at 1b. However, Bowman is still the best defensive 3b in the organization, and he was placed on the 40 man roster to protect him from the Rule V draft. Bowman has...or had, terrific power, but his injuries have somewhat curtailed that.

THE FUTURE: Bowman should open 2010 in Buffalo, and is a phone call away from the majors. His story is one of endurance, and MPH feverently hopes he makes the majors at some point this season, we're all rooting for him.

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