Tuesday, November 14, 2006

Back from Vacation, Mets Prospect of the Day(11/13/06) -Deolis Guerra-

Sorry guys, was on vacation in Arizona, but im back now

Mets Prospect of the Day 11-13-06

Deolis Guerra P R R 6′ 5″ 200 17 04-17-1989

Guerra was one of top 2 International prospects secured by the Mets last year. The Mets inked the 16 year old Guerra in July 2005 for $700,000, and he made his professional debut with Hagerstown on May 6, 2006. He actually signed the same day as fellow prospect Fernando Martinez. OnDeck ranks Guerra as the 8th Mets prospect. His pitches include a 91-92 mph fastball, and a developing change-up. It’s hard to judge a 17 year old playing organized ball, but Hagerstown has purposely limited Guerra’s pitches this season. The SAL’s youngest player, Guerra never allowed more than two earned runs in any of his 17 outings. The Mets did keep him on tight pitch counts, but his 2.20 ERA still would have ranked third in the league if he had enough innings to qualify. He excelled at age 17 mainly on the strength of his changeup, showing an advanced feel for the pitch. The changeup has plus arm action on it which is very rare for a person this young. It is fairlt straight, but has a little fade and parachutes at the end. His fastball is already in the 87-91 range and should add velocity as he matures. Gotham Baseball updated their Mets prospect list in August 2006 and Guerra was ranked 7th.

Deolis Guerra, Mets
Age: 17.4 H/9: 6.75 BB/9: 4.39 K/9: 7.18

His ratios aren't great, but this is a guy born in 1989 (feel old yet?) who is already in the Florida State League and holding his own. Sitting at 89-91 mph with plenty of projection thanks to a 6-foot-5, 200 pound frame, Guerra's changeup is already a solid offering and his curveball has made great strides. The Mets need to slow down his development, but his ceiling is sky high.

Deolis Guerra (RHP) - Minaya gambled that Guerra was going to make Mets fans (or at least the ones that follow the minor leagues) forget all about Gaby Hernandez. So far, he’s been proven right, The 17-year old is far more polished than the departed Hernandez, and so far, seems to be the pitcher with the higher upside. An ERA under 2.20 in 17 starts in the offensive-minded, tiny ballpark-having SAL doesn’t hurt either.

Deolis Guerra, RHP (17 years old): Throws a 88-91 mph fastball with an above-average change that eventually will be a plus pitch. He’s only 17 and is very projectable, so there is no reason not to think he can’t add another 2-3 mph to his fastball and make that a plus pitch as well. The Mets had him work on his breaking pitches in instructional league. Next season he will probably start at St. Lucie. He’s on the fast track, but remember that he’s only 17 and still needs to build up arm-strength (i.e., so he can pitch an entire major league season) and needs to develop his breaking pitches, so I wouldn’t expect him at Shea until late-2008 or early 2009.

MPH Take- This kid was amazing in 2006. Like Fernando Martinez, he tore up Mid-A Hagerstown and was called up to High A. A 2.20 era for a 17 year old player is amazing, especially in Mid A. His change up is absolutly filthy, which is pretty crazy for someone as young and raw as him. His fastball touches 91-92, and he could add a few more mph to that before its all said and done, which should become a plus pitch. He is also working on a couple breaking pitches as well. He should start out in High A St Lucie next season and could be called up to AA towards the end. He is looking at a late-2009 arrival to the Mets, and could be an Ace for us for years to come. Watch out for this kid, he could be realllllll good.

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