Ok I know Tejesh, and many other Mets fans were infuriated by this trade, I mean come on, look at it, our "budding all star home grown outfielder" (/end sarcasm) for two scrubs from the Nationals. I loved Milledge as much as the next fan, but to be 100% honest, chances are he wasn't going to be an All Star any time soon. 5 tools? Maybe so, but most of the 5 tools are mediocre at best. While I think he will be able to hit for good average, the ceiling on his power and overall defense or speed doesn't have All-Star written anywhere on it. Lets face it, Milledge was going to be a homegrown, young, cheap, decent outfielder. Nothing wrong with that, but to say this rivals the KAZMIR trade, in which we traded a stud ACE left handed pitcher is disgustingly off base. That brings me to my next point in relation to the Kazmir trade. Zambrano, while a decent pitcher when we acquired him with a bit of upside, had 1 solid season for us. After that? Nothing. We traded 15 years of an ACE lefty pitcher for 1 year of a 4.2 era #4 pitcher. Milledge was traded for a top 3 defensive catcher in the game(who is still only 31), who also handles pitching staffs really well and should make a huge impact right away on our younger pitchers, and an OF'er who was once as highly regarded as Milledge, but might be somewhat of a late bloomer. Church was far from bad last year, he showed good power(43 2b and 15 hr in 470 ab in the worst park for hitters in the league, not to mention on a non contending team with hardly any protection in the lineup) and has had a consistent .275+ avg the last 2 years.
Neither Schneider nor Church are garbage players, to say that is ignorant. Both, IMO, are upgrades to this team for the 2008 season. Is it just me, or am I the only one who thinks Church has a chance to be another one of those hidden gems Omar grabs, ala Maine, who breaks out next season for some ridiculously unexpected(around here) .290+, 30 hr, 35 2b, 100 rbi, season? Sure hes 29, but look at Carlos Pena! Another late blooming left handed hitter who just recently got a chance at 600+ ab in his prime, and look what he did. I'm not saying Church will put up the ridiculous numbers Pena put up, but who is to say he won't outperform an essentially rookie 22 year old outfielder who hasn't really put up any stats worth getting worked up over? I am willing to bet that Church outperforms Milledge in 2008, AND the 2009 season, at least. If you can figure out a fair measure of performance(whether it be OPS, SLG, combination of Average, power, production, whatever), I'll make a friendly bet with you.
The trade isn't fantastic, its not a slam dunk for an Ace we were looking for, and I don't think is was necessary, but whats done is done. It happened, and theres nothing we can do about it besides root for our 2 newest players, and talk about what they will do to help this team win a world series next season. We upgraded 2 positions in one fell swoop. We gave up a guy who's ceiling isn't nearly as high as the 2 other OF'ers we have in our system, and got back someone who becomes my breakout candidate for 08, as well as a catcher who won't get run on everytime someone is on base and will be able to improve this pitching staff tremendously while working with some of our younger "throwers".
On a side note, I would like to see us sign an OF'er who can hit lefties very well to give Church a day off against a tough lefty, Shannon Stewarts name has been tossed around, and I wouldn't be against that. Also, one final thought. Who says Church won't be coveted by one of the teams we are trying to acquire a pitcher from? He seems like a Billy Beane type of player, and maybe the Orioles would have rather wanted him instead of Milledge as well. Church isn't worthless, and is still 4 years away from free agency, and he can play all 3 outfield positions.
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If you can figure out a fair measure of performance(whether it be OPS, SLG, combination of Average, power, production, whatever), I'll make a friendly bet with you.
ReplyDeleteYou're on, buddy. Plus or minus 35 points - OPS. And I call upside on plus 35. You get downside on minus 35.
I would certainly like a part of that bet. I think David is 100% correct in his analysis. This is not a great trade, but it is not nearly as bad as people are making it out to be. I am high on both Schneider and Church and am glad they are on this team.
ReplyDeleteMilledge's ceiling is not nearly as high as most think. I don't see five tools. His arm is average for a corner outfield spot (not to mention it is not very accurate), his speed is very overrated (one of those players that looks like he is running fast but does not cover a lot of ground--the anti-Beltran), his body frame does not have a lot of project to it in terms of power potential, and he has very poor fielder (it seems like he was constantly making terrible reads forcing him to dive on a routine ball and then somehow getting credited with a good defensive play). The only tool he truly does excell in is his bat speed. When you add to that hi poor instincts and apparant cockiness, his development is limited.
At best, I see him maxing out with numbers similar to Milton Bradley (an apt comparison in so many ways) or maybe Gary Matthews without the defensive range. My prediction is that Milledge will level out with production that is actually pretty similar to what Church put up this past year, .270, .340, .460, 15hr, 402b, 70rbi., 10sb. Why not get that production in the near future and get a great game caller like Schneider.
Milledge is putting up between an 830 and 850 OPS next season.
ReplyDeleteNot a chance Tej, Milledge will be lucky if he breaks an 800 OPS in 2008. Churchs will be between 830-860
ReplyDeleteTwo bets:
ReplyDelete1. Milledge will make 1 ASG in the next 5 years
2. Milledge will outproduce Church in 2008 based on straight OPS.
Provided they both have at least 400 AB, I think Church will have have the higher OPS. You cannot just project Milledge's numbers for 2008 based upon his 2007 output. His 2007 numbers were inflated because he faced a disproportionate number of lefties. If he plays everyday his OPS will go down significantly.
ReplyDeleteIf you expand milledges stats from last year to the amount of at bats church had, he outperformed church... why would anyoen think he cant do that again with a legitimate 500 at bats... plus look at huis stats with 2 outs and runners in scoring position... .400??? you cant teach that... yes he strikes out a lot, and yes the mets pr gave him a bad rap so fans wouldnt be upset when he got traded (ala kazmir) but remember some other guys with baggage, some who we kept like strawberry and gooden, who if this mets management ran the team in the 80s, they would have been traded away before we ever won a championship...
ReplyDeletemilledge stats : 184 at bats, 27 runs, 29 rbis, 7 hr, 3 sb, .272/.341/.446/.787 (btw 341 obp for someone who strikes out alot is pretty good) church had 2.55 at bats for every one milledge at bat last season... milledges stats look like this... 69 runs, 74 rbis, 18 hr and theres no reason to think his splits would remain the same... he was starting to hit curveballs... this guy was 22, who still has his whole career ahead of him., and as much as you want to doubt it a tremendous ceiling... gomez will be nothing more than a juan pierre, and if you want that out of a corner outfield spot for the future, than thats your opinion, but all gomez has is speed and defense, he hasnt shown he can hit at the major league level and he will never have power for a corner outfielder... milledge, on the other hand, will be in all star in the next 5 years (maybe the next 3 years) and his stats will be better than church's next year...
John, I agree with you on Milledge, but disagree on Gomez.
ReplyDeleteIf you look at Gomez' June numbers, he put up a very good line, .299/.350/.400, after just 29 ABs in May to figure out MLB pitching. Gomez is going to be a stud.
But trading Milledge is just inexcusable.
I suppose that gomez got hot, be he cooled off equally as fast, finishing with a .232 average, and if you look at his hits, he doesnt even have gap power, as evident by his only 3 doubles and no triples... someone with his speed out of a corner outfield needs to rack up extra base hits if he has no power, but instead he is the slap and bunt type of hitter a juan pierre or a luis castillo is... i mean we are certainly better off with church in rf than gomez this year, but i wouldnt be sad to see gomez go, i would much rather have kept milledge here... of course, hind sight will be 20:20 and we all remember how highly touted alex escobar was and generation K and none of them amounted to anything they were supposed to... im just not sold on a slap hitter playing in right field, when we have got a guy playing second base who is essentially a slap hitter for the enxt 4 years (another stupid omar move)... gomez, if he ever gets playing time, will have to bat at the 8 spot bc of castillo's ability to make contact... and you need a guy who is going to potentially drive in runs before the pitchers spot, and gomez is not that guy... bunts and infield singles dont bring runners home...
ReplyDeletebut yes, we obviously both agree at the real issue, and that is omar the "talent scout genius" is an idiot... AND he is going to come home with livan hernendez, i can just feel it...
Couldn't disagree more about Gomez. Yes, based upon last year's production, Milledge was a superior hitter. Unlike Milledge, Gomez has great instincts for the game. He makes plenty of mistakes that all young players make, but his intuitive feeling for the game is fantastic. As I mentioned in earlier posts, I'm very sceptical of Milledge in this regard.
ReplyDeleteHow can you watch Gomez and not drool over his natural talent. Unlike Milledge, Gomez's large frame has tons of projection to it. He is still learning how to drive the ball. Gomez has already realized three elite tools: speed, arm, and fielding (I see Mlledge as having on exceptional tool and four average tools). He has the body for power development and the instincts for a high contact hitter. Give him another year in the minors, and I think he could really blossom. Hopefully, with us.
On an side note, although I don't see Gomez as a slap hitter, what's wrong with slap hitters? I love how Castillo plays the game. Unlike countless major leaguers, Luis maximizes his talent. Furthermore, his ability to extend a bats has pays huge dividends for every batter that hits behind him. The Castillos and Ecksteins of the game have an impact that transcends statistics.
People have problems with Keppinger's power, and he's got twice the pop of a Luis Castillo. I mean, it's ridiculous the double standard fans have (and I'm insanely guilty of this, too).
ReplyDeleteSlap hitters do nothing for you. How many times were OFs playing pitcher depth for Castillo with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs? The problem with a slap hitter is, you take that little dunk/duck snort away, and what's left in their game?
Even with the outfield in, Castillo still hit .300 with a OBP of .360. Not to mention scoring 91 runs. That is valuable. Admittedly, he is not a run producer, but he is not asked to be. He is a table setter. In that role he is very good. That being said, Castillo anemia knocking in runners is overstated. He knocked in 20 in 200 AB with the Mets. You put him in the Mets lineup all year I think he can get you 45 to 60 RBI a year. That is plenty in the role he fills.
ReplyDeleteI think my original point still stands. Castillo's value is in taking a toll on pitchers. Pesky hitters provide enormous value to every other hitter in the lineup. Not only does Luis increase pitch counts, but he also "exposes" the arsenal of the pitcher. This value is difficult to extract through statistics, but is apparent to anyone actually watching the ebb and flow of the game. It is exactly what you want in a #2 hitter.
i like castillo, not for four years, but what i am saying is we dont need another slap hitter in the lineup... when gomez plays it will be at the bottom of the order, where he will be expected to produce before the pitchers spot, and slap and bunt guys dont do that... another thing, everyone keeps saying gomez is going to be a stud... he is already 22, so he shouldnt be farther behind than milledge, who can hit major league pitching... lets remember reyes was playing when he was what, in his teens? wright was producing at 22... i just dont see how gomez is going to be so great, todays great young players were already producing at gomez's age... how much longer do we have to wait for this stud? fine if you want to argue defense and speed, but i dont see the projection you all see, i just dont see it... again, i certainly would not be sad to see him go for a very good starting pitcher...
ReplyDeletei guess thats what the glory of baseball is though, that we can have these arguments and know that when push comes to shove, we are hoping for the same thing...
Yeah we can agree to disagree. However, I don't think you can necessary base you assessment of Gomez only on age. For one, 22 is still very young for his level. But more importantly, every player is different concerning development. Some peak early, some peak later. Likewise, players develop different skills and traits at different times. Gomez is far more advanced than Milledge when it comes to baserunning and defense, but less advanced in terms of hitting. If you look at most of the young sluggers you allude to you, most have significant holes in their games. Things like defense come later in their development. That is not the case across the board. Guys like Ozzie Smith or Omar Vizquel emerged as great defenders long before they became accomplished hitters. Looking at Gomez, he is very tall and wirey. I think it is a safe bet that he will eventually "fill" into his body. It is in that observation that gives you hope that he will emerge as a power threat. To evaluate Carlos's potential, look at Alex Rios for a good comparison (although Gomez has better speed). Rios did not hit more than 10 hrs in any season prior to the age of 25. However, I think most in the know around baseball now consider Rios one of the more promising young hitters in the game. Naturally, Gomez may never reach his ceiling... But man if he does!
ReplyDeleteBy the way, I agree four years is not a great deal for Castillo. However, in this market, it is not a terrible signing. I think Luis gives you at least two more years of above average play. He then becomes a little pricey platoon player. However, in two years six million a year might not look too bad for platoon player. It sort of reminds me of the Pedro signing. Yes, signing Pedro to four years given his durability concerns was questionable at the time. However, even though the skeptics were right about his failure to hold up over the length of the contract, the three years of production from Pedro will have been well worth the "lost" year we experienced this past year.
ReplyDeletei hope you are both right about gomez... and i dont care about home runs, but with his speed the lack of extra base hits concerns me... maybe he fills out, but when he fills out he will lose his speed (which always happens when guys fill out) and his speed is also his key to being a great defender... either way, i also agree with whoever said that we still need a righty bat to platoon in the outfield and that gomez needs to play every day...
ReplyDeletewhat do you guys think about the two guys the mets picked up in the rule 5 draft today?
Not even worthy of mention.
ReplyDelete