Thursday, January 11, 2007

Fantasy Info Central's Top 10 Mets Prospects and system Audit

System Audit:
New York Mets

1. Fernando Martinez, CF, A+. Athletic. He might be the best athlete in the baseball at this point. He's only 18 but was able to hold his own in the AFL this year. He draws a fair amount of walks, strikesout a tad too much and can even hit for some power. He struggles mightily with left handed pitching and struggles with anything inside. He might hit 20-25 home runs someday, he can steal 40+ bases, hit over .300 and with the potential the Mets have, score well over 100 runs.
2. Mike Pelfrey, RHP, MLB. There are very few pitchers who start in A+ and end in the big leagues. There are even fewer that do it in their first professional season. Pelfrey did. He's big (6'7") and knows how to use that body. He carries a 96 MPH plus fastball with good movement, and a good change and curve. His slider has good movement but lacks control. He needs another year of minor league conditioning to build durability and develop some of those pitches. He will be a good strikeout pitcher who also doesn't give up too many walks. He keeps the ball in the park by pitching down and has the potential to become an unhittable pitcher.
3. Carlos Gomez, CF, AA. Strikesout a little too much and should take more walks. He's the quickest and best baserunner in the Mets system (though in the near future Martinez could challenge that) and an increased OBP will only serve to help him utilize that speed more. He has some pop and could hit 25 HR in the big leagues but his value is in his feet.
4. Deolis Guerra, RHP, A+. Want to know the list of 17 year old pitchers in the Florida State League (A+)? Deolis Guerra. Pretty solid young pitcher. Tall and alledgedly durable. He has an incredible arm and throws 90-91 but with his delivery should be able to add up to 5 MPH. He has a plus change and a good fastball. His progression has been fast and the Mets are liable to slow that down plenty but this guy has an incredible ceiling.
5. Phil Humber, RHP, MLB. He had Tommy John surgery last year but came back strong and said he felt better than ever. His AFL was ended with shoulder soreness but that is not something to be too alarmed about. He's a fairly good strikeout pitcher with good movement on his pitches. He won't dazzle anyone with blazing speed or incredible deceptiveness, but he gets the job done.
6. Alay Soler, RHP, MLB. The Cuban defector is still a prospect (in the sense that he's rookie eligible) but it's pretty clear what the Mets have with him. Good stuff, but not great. He'll likely find himself in the bullpen but he has the potential to be a fifth starter.
7. Joseph Smith, RHP, AA. Smith saw limited action in his first season but has plenty of talent. He moved through A ball quickly and next year will probably start at AA but with good progress and continuing to master his command he could move up to AAA Norfolk before years end.
8. Anderson Hernandez, 2B, MLB. He's tasted the bigs and while he struggled this year, I think he's just as talented as people thought he was last year. Good defensively and fairly good offensively he could be a MLB 2B next year or a very good utility player. Little to no power, but could hit .300 and draw a few walks.
9. Mike Carp, 1B, A+. Strikesout a little too much but can hit for average and draw walks as well as hit for some power. As a 20 year old in the AFL he showed his true colors and merit as he mashed out a pretty good set of stats. He has a good swing and a good approach at the plate.
10. Kevin Mulvey, RHP, AA. Top pick (2nd round) in the 2006 June Draft. He has a good fastball-changeup combination which makes him a very good strikeout pitcher. Both pitches are plus pitches and the fastball hits 94-95. He also throws a curve and a slider but neither are particularly good nor do they show particular promise.

Flier - Shawn Bowman, 3B, A+. Bowman might have made the top ten had it not been for him breaking a vertibrae, again. He broke the same vertibrae for the second straight year this year and after speaking with a doctor who specializes in sports medicine, I was reassured that he would most likely be able to come back at close to 100% from this injury, though there is never anything certain about this type of injury.

Future Lineup (arrival date)
C: Paul LoDuca
1B: Mike Carp (2009)
2B: Anderson Hernandez (2007)
3B: David Wright
SS: Jose Reyes
LF: Carlos Beltran (moved when Martinez is ready)
CF: Fernando Martinez (2009)
RF: Carlos Gomez (2008 )


Pitching Rotation
1: Mike Pelfrey (late 2007)
2: Deolis Guerra (2009)
3: Phil Humber (2007)
4: Alay Soler (mid-late 2007)
5: John Maine

Bulpen
Closer: Billy Wagner
Setup: Ambiorix Burgos, Guillermo Mota
Middle Relief: Joe Smith, Aaron Heilman

The Mets have a plethora of talent. By far the youngest top 10 list, it is full of young, talented super-prospects. Their talent is where their future weakness is and they've done it through the draft, Latin American scouting and trades.

System Grade: A

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