Monday, January 22, 2007

MPH's first Farm System Audit

Man, we've been working on this one for close to 3 weeks now. What we did was, we undertook a project whereby we ranked our 'prospects' (and as you'll see, we took a very loose definition of the word prospect), by position. Outfielders, 3rd base, shortstop, 2nd base, 1st base, catcher, starting pitchers, and relief pitchers. We also provided a little capper on each position. Whatdya say we get this party started? Without further adu, the first ever MPH Audit...


MPH's Position by Position Prospect Analysis and Ranking
-cowritten by David and Tejesh (with a lot of intense fighting along the way)
~With oodles of credit, thanks, and gratitude to John Mack from Macksmets.com, without whom this list would not be as comprehensive as it is.
~With thanks to loducathebeast from the mets.com board, who served as statistician for some players

Affiliate Guide:

New Orleans: AAA Pacific Coast League
Binghamton: AA Eastern League
St. Lucie: A+ Florida State League
Savannah: A South Atlantic League (Sally)
Brooklyn: A- New York Penn League
Kingsport: R Appalachian League (Appy)
GCL Mets: R Gulf Coast League
DSL Mets: R Dominican Summer League


Outfield

The Mets are stacked with top notch high ceiling outfielders. Seven of the top 10 outfielders on our list could be ticketed for St. Lucie, Binghamton, and New Orleans. That’s depth. There is an over-abundance of wealth in the outfield portion of our farm system, and depending on how Omar thins the major league ready ranks (we could potentially have 4 this year with Lasto, Cargo,Concep and Coles), we could bolster other portions of the farm system (think 3 team trade involving Concepcion, Coles, etc…so on, for a couple of high ceiling young middle infielders?). Whatever the case, there certainly is no lack of quality at the outfield position down on the farm. Behold…

1. Lastings Milledge (AAA Norfolk .277/.388/.440, MLB Mets .241/.310/.380)

Total 2006 Stats: .264/.363/.419 (125 for 473, 66 runs, 28 2b, 6 3b, 11 HR, 58 RBI, 14 SB, 12 CS, 68 BBs, 106Ks)

Lastings Milledge was drafted in the 1st round of the 2003 draft, out of Lakewood Ranch High in Bradenton, Florida, where as a senior, he hit .414 with 4 doubles, 3 triples, 10 homers, 35 RBI and 42 steals. A 5-tool talent, Milledge fell due to signability concerns, among other factors. The Mets signed Milledge on August 13th, too late for any meaningful impact during that season. Milledge spent the majority of the 2004 season in Cap City of the South Atlantic League, and had a banner rookie campaign, hitting .337/.399/.579, with 13 homers and 23 steals. A late season promotion to St. Lucie produced less then stellar results (.235/.319/.432). However, 2005 proved to be Milledge's coming out party, as he batted .318 between St. Lucie and AA Binghamton.

2006 was a tumultuous year for Milledge, as fan scrutiny and a shuttle between Norfolk and New York took their tool on the young outfielder. He did show impressive flashes of all 5 tools during his 166 at bat debut to the major leagues, and while the final numbers (.241/.310/.380) don't look particularly good, the 13 XBH do, as does the fact that the last time he struggled upon being introduced to a level, he came back the next year and blew it away.

Barring injury, or a particularly horrid performance from Shawn Green, Lasto should spend the season alongside Carlos Gomez in the outfield at New Orleans, the Mets new AAA team.

2. Fernando Martinez (A Hagerstown .333/.389/.505, A+ St. Lucie .193/.254/.387, AFL Mesa .253/.305/.379 (22 for 87, 16 runs, 5 2b, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 5 BBs, 17 Ks, 1 SB, 3 CS))

Total 2006 Stats: 106 games, 424 ABs, 115 hits, 62 runs, 24 2b, 4 3b, 13 HR, 50 RBI, 9 SB, 8 CS, 27 BBs, 86 Ks, .271/.315/.439 with a .754 OPS

Omar Minaya made the Mets a player in the Latin American scene by signing Carlos Beltran in the winter of 2004. In the summer of 2005, Fernando Martinez signed with the Mets, partly due to Beltran's signing. Given a $1.4 million bonus, Martinez had a lot to live up to.

And live up he did. He spent the bulk of his rookie season with Hagerstown of the Sally League, and put up ridiculously impressive numbers .333/.389/.505. Combined over two levels, including a 30 game trip to the Florida State League, where he was the youngest position player, FMart hit .279/.336/.457 with incredible XBH power, 32 in 315 ABs.

Strengths: Martinez has an advanced approach well beyond his years. He has good pitch recognition, strike-zone awareness and power to all fields. He has slightly above-average speed, though he's better underway than down the line or as a basestealer. He has a strong outfield arm.

Weaknesses: Like many young hitters, Martinez tends to overswing when he gets in a funk but should outgrow that as he gets more reps against advanced pitching. He doesn't have a good first step and can take poor routes in center field, which likely means that he'll end up in right field. Power is still mostly projection, and some scouts see a swing that is not designed for loft. He also struggles against good lefties. Concerns exist about his ability to maintain speed as body fills out, leaving some to project a move to a corner slot.

It's interesting to note that when the updated PECOTA cards come out, his comps will include Jose Reyes and Miguel Cabrera, so the system doesn't know what he'll end up as either, other than really, really good. Nando shows an advanced approach at the plate, and scouts were awed at the AFL when, as a barely 18 year old, he was taking balls out the other way in batting practice.

One of the best things a young hitter can do (at least in the opinion of MPH) is go the other way consistently. That takes away the outside corner for a pitcher, and if the player has an exceptionally quick bat, you don’t run the risk of being busted hard in.

FMart concluded his 2006 season by hitting .253/.305/.379 in the Arizona Fall League, again, as the youngest player in the league. The sky is the limit for Nando, he could eventually become a perennial 40/40 threat.

The Future: Martinez has the highest ceiling of any hitter in the system and will put himself into the discussion of the best prospects in baseball if he can build on his 2006 season. Even if he has to move from center field, his bat could make him an all-star. He should be back in high Class A to begin 2007.

3. Carlos Gomez (AA Binghamton .281/.350/.423, Escogido, DWL .242/.258/.242 (22 for 91, 11 runs, 0 2b, 3b, HR, 5 RBI, 2 BBs, 26 Ks, 12 SB))

Total 2006 Stats: 143 for 521, 64 runs, 24 2b, 8 3b, 7 HR, 53 RBI, 53 SB, 12 CS, 29 BBs, 123 Ks, .274/.313/.392 with a .704 OPS

The Mets signed Gomez in 2002 out of the Dominican Republic, and he made his stateside debut in 2004 (after hitting .240 for the DSL Mets in 2003), first, with the GCL Mets for 19 games, where he batted .268/.303/.366, and then for 38 games with Kingsport of the rookie Appy League, where he batted .287/.333/.427.

Gomez spent all of 2005 with Hagerstown of the Sally League, batting .275/.331/.376, and much to the surprise of Mets farm fanatics, Omar Minaya decided to jump Gomez to Binghamton, skipping high A St. Lucie. And for the first 2+ months, Gomez struggled to hit above the Mendoza line. However, after coming back from a back injury, Gomez exploded, ripping off a period from June 29th to August 8th where he hit .399/.420/.594, with 55 hits in 138 ABs and 15/16 SB attempts successful. Gomez ended his season with a very respectable line of .281/.350/.423.

Strengths: Gomez' arm and speed both rate as a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale. He's an above-average center fielder and he refined his basestealing technique to where he had 41 swipes in 50 attempts in 2006. His lightning-quick bat and natural swing path allow him to make consistent hard contact. His arm gives him yet another plus tool.
Weaknesses: Much of his game is still raw. Gomez is too aggressive at the plate and needs to improve his situational hitting. He has plus raw power that has yet to show up in game action. His flashy style has irked some his opponents, but the Mets don't see it as a problem and think it will diminish as he matures.

Right now, he needs a more patient approach, which like his hitting, is something he made great strides with during the second half of the season. Has difficulty facing lefthanders, particularly ones with good breaking pitches. His numbers in the DWL should be discounted heavily, due to the fact that he was not getting regular playing time, and when he did start to, he showed off his talent going 7 for his last 20, playing everyday.

Gomez exudes confidence and oozes talent, a very dangerous combination if properly balanced. Including his scorching hot month+, Gomez hit .341 from July 1st to the end of the season. Power and plate discipline remain elusive for the 20 year old, but as he fills out, he's expected to eventually hit 20-25 homers per season. Many scouts and amateurs rave about Gomez, calling him the Jose Reyes of the outfield. And like Reyes, he will need time to develop fully. Reyes didn't put it all together until mid May 2006, 3 years after his initial call up (in 2003). Given time, Gomez should develop into one of the most exciting players in the game.

The Future: With Carlos Beltran signed through 2011, Gomez' future with New York lies in right field. Ticketed for the Mets' new Triple-A New Orleans affiliate, he has a ceiling comparable with that of Fernando Martinez.

4. Dustin Martin (Sam Houston College .389/.480/.572 A- Brooklyn .315/.399/.454, North Shore, HWL .280/.344/.415 (23 for 82, 13 runs, 8 2b, 1 HR, 13 RBI, 6 BBs, 17 Ks, 3 SB))

Total 2006 Stats: .338/.421/.494, 183 for 541, 39 2b, 9 3b, 9 HR, 88 RBI, 23/34 SBs, 77 BBs, 99 Ks

Dustin Martin attended Sam Houston State University, where he hit .389 as a senior, with 6 HRs and 40 RBI, 81 hits in 208 Abs, 16 doubles, and 13 SBs. He was named Southland Conference leading hitter and made AA-Conference team. Baseball America tagged Martin as the best pure hitter of all 2006 Mets draftees, and Martin lived up to that tag, displaying an advanced approach at the plate, with a good opposite field approach.

Martin ended his 2006 season with a trip to Hawaii, where he played alongside many Met farmhands, including MPH favorite Mike Carp. Martin hit .269/.337/.385 for North Shore, capping a banner introduction to professional ball

5. Ambiorix Concepcion (A+ St. Lucie .287/.343/.387, AA Binghamton .261/.291/.362, Tigres de Chinandega, Nicaragua .268/.321/.486 (38 for 142, 23 runs, 10 2b, 7 HR, 31 RBI, 12 BBs, 36 Ks, 9 SB))

Combined Stats as of 1/8/07: 176 for 642, 85 runs, 42 2b, 3 3b, 11 HR, 93 RBI, 38 SB, 13 CS, 44 BBs, 160 Ks, .274/.321/.400 with a .721 OPS

The Mets signed Concepcion out of the Dominican Republic in 2000, as a 17 year old. Concepcion has what might be the best arm in the Mets farm system, which is always compared to that of Vladimir Guerrero.

However, Concepcion, until the 2006 season, hadn't been able to neither put together his offensive game (outside of his 2004 season with Brooklyn where he hit .305/.338/.475), nor make it above class A. That changed in 2006 with a breakout campaign for St. Lucie. A trip to Binghamton cooled off Concepcion a bit, but after a slow start, he rallied to end with decent numbers.

However, not only is time now against Concepcion ever making it with the Mets, but with the likes of Milledge, Gomez and Martinez in front of him on the Mets pecking order, the odds are firmly stacked against him. A good campaign in 2007 split between Binghamton and New Orleans might vault Concepcion into the category of "valuable trade bait", though.

6. Corey Coles (A+ St. Lucie .341/.407/.421)

Coles was drafted out of the University of Louisana-LaFayet in 2003, where he hit .371/.406/.617. The Mets made him their 5th round pick and sent him to Kingsport. Displaying an advanced eye at the plate, Coles moved through 2 levels in his rookie year. He played all of 2004 with Brooklyn, and all of 05 (shortened by an injury) with Hagerstown. 2006 was Coles' breakout year, as he torched the Florida State League with a .341 batting average, but with virtually no power, only 1 homer in 458 ABs.

But, Coles will just keep hitting for a very good average, and play a good defensive outfield, which should make him an attractive person in a trade. Certainly not a lynchpin type, but a pretty good OF prospect for a team that has enough offense and needs an excellent contact hitter who can steal you 20-25 bases.

7. Caleb Stewart (A+ St. Lucie .259/.343/.519, Tigres de Chinandega, Nicaragua .344/.458/.573 (33 for 96, 18 runs, 10 2b, 4 HR, 16 RBI, 18 BBs, 13 Ks, 5 SB))

Combined Stats as of 1/8/07: 96 for 339, 56 runs, 27 2b, 2 3b, 18 HR, 56 RBI, 6 SB, 2 CS, 49 BBs, 65 Ks, .283/.374/.534 with a .908 OPS

Stewart was drafted in the 22nd round of the 2004 draft out of the University of Kentucky, where as a senior he hit .329/.422/.584, with 20 doubles and 10 homers in 219 ABs, and an impressive 25/26 BB/K ratio.

He struggled upon first entering the pros, hitting .213 in 25 games for short season Brooklyn. However, a promotion to Cap City of the Sally League seemed to do the trick, as he hit .314/.396/.558 in 25 games, belting 6 doubles and 5 homers.

A return trip to Brooklyn in 2005 netted better results, as he hit .272/.385/.487 before a late season promotion to St. Lucie. In 2006, Stewart was not getting regular playing time, and his numbers reflected that, dropping to .259/.343/.519. He still blasted 14 homers and 17 doubles in 243 ABs, showing plus power in the pitching friendly Florida State League.

Stewart is 24, and will turn 25 midway through next season, and he should open the season in Binghamton, as part of a decent, but not overwhelming outfield trifeca featuring Corey Coles and Ambiorix Concepcion.

8. Joe Holden (A- Brooklyn .225/.264/.345, A Hagerstown .300/.367/.464)

Total 2006 Stats: .251/.302/.387 (100 for 398, 55 runs, 16 2b, 3b, 12 HR, 49 RBI, 28 BBs, 88 Ks, 16 SB, 7 CS, .689 OPS)

Joe Holden was a 21st round pick by the Mets in 2005. Holden was the 1st player ever drafted out of Molloy College, where he had an incredible last season for the Lions. He hit .390 with 49 runs scored, 16 doubles, 3 triples, 13 home runs and 50 RBI (.744 slug, .462 OBP).

He was immediately assigned to Brooklyn, where he won the Sterling Award (.291/.361/.368) as the Mets’ Most Valuable Player in Class-A Brooklyn. Holden started the 2006 season for Hagerstown of the Sally League, and continued to rake, hitting .300/.367/.464, subbing for the oft-injured Fernando Martinez. However, due to the Mets irrational and stupid policy of stacking the Brooklyn Cyclones, they demoted Holden back to Brooklyn, where he struggled mightily, hitting .225/.264/.345.

He is a contact hitter with above above-average speed. Holden focused on increasing his power in 06, and he did so, hitting 16 doubles and 12 homers in 398 ABs, compared to 7 doubles and 5 triples in 223 ABs in 2005. However, that power came at the expense of his average, as he hit .251 over two levels, although he did hit .300 for Hagerstown. The next logical step for Holden would be combining the two. He’s a very patient batter and has exceptional gap power. A recent scouting report put him as a future .300 lifetime major league hitter. The best part of his game is his defensive skills and his speed. He currently projects as a 40+ SB guy in the majors. His arm is strong and his hustle is second to none.

Holden should headline a very strong Savannah outfield, featuring some combination of Jesus Gamero, Will Vogl, Sean Henry and/or Brahiam Maldonado.

9. Sean Henry (R Kingsport .275/.365/.463, A Hagerstown .254/.280/.451)

Total 2006 Stats: .268/.339/.459 (59 for 220, 35 runs, 17 2b, 2 3b, 7 HR, 41 RBI, 24 BBs, 45 Ks, 30 SB, 7 CS, .798 OPS)

Sean Henry was drafted initially by the Tigers in the 10th round of the 2003 draft, but they failed to sign him, and the Mets nabbed him in the 20th round of the 04 draft, and sent him to the GCL Mets, where he batting .282/.364/.436 in 56 games, with 18 XBH and 10 steals.

Henry was converted from the middle infield to the outfield after the 2004 season, and until 2006, had yet to make an appearance above short season ball. He was promoted to Hagerstown after batting .275/.365/.463 in 41 games for Kingsport, of the Appy League. Upon his promotion, he struggled mightily, registering career lows for average and on base percentage, while compiling a .254/.280/.451 line. Henry is 21 years old, and having not seen any time above mid class A, is a long shot to make any impact on the major league level.

10. Brahiam Maldonado (R Kingsport .281/.363/.530)

Maldonado was drafted out of St. Francis High, in Puerto Rico, in the 10th round of the 2004 draft. He was sent to the GCL Mets as an 18 year old, and struggled, hitting .185/.272/.238 in 151 ABs. A repeat of that level in 2005 produced slightly better results, .256/.355/.359. Maldonado spent the 2006 season with Kingsport of the Appy League, and produced his best season, .281/.363/.530, as a 20 year old.

Maldonado doesn't have any one particular skill, and thus far, does not appear to be a particularly high hitter for average, but his 2006 season bodes well, assuming he can build off it.

David's Sleeper: Dan Stegall
Tejesh's Sleeper: Will Vogl

2 comments:

  1. How come SNY doesn't show Minor league games? I'd love to catch the BMets or Zyphers and watch some of the prospects.

    If you agree with this idea, how does a petition sound to you?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Go for it, but I doubt it'll accomplish a whole lot. I'd sign the petition, for sure.

    ReplyDelete