Thursday, January 18, 2007

Mets Won’t Trade Future, So Present Must Wait

Published: January 18, 2007

The telephone calls keep coming, so Mets General Manager Omar Minaya keeps listening. But trading away premium talent for a modest starter is not going to happen. So Minaya has resisted all comers, and will take a chance that the enigmatic Jorge Sosa and seven other candidates will ultimately produce three capable starters for the last three spots in the rotation.

None of the three figures to be the elite pitcher the Mets anticipated they would land when the off-season began, so at some point Minaya may look to aim higher. Acquiring a top starter — someone, for instance, like Florida’s Dontrelle Willis — would probably cost the Mets two, or perhaps three, of their top prospects, a notion they have rebuffed in the past. But as Minaya said recently, after being outbid for Barry Zito, “If you have those kinds of premium prospects, those kinds of impact pitchers become available in trades.”

When teams ask about the Mets’ top prospects, five players stand out: the right-handed starters Mike Pelfrey and Philip Humber, and the outfielders Lastings Milledge, Carlos Gómez and Fernando Martínez. Having recently turned 24, Humber is the oldest and is six years older than Martínez, who, at 18, is the farthest from the major leagues, but might turn out to be the best.

Of the five, only Pelfrey figures to make the Mets’ opening day roster, although as a No. 4 or No. 5 starter, not as the ace they project him to become someday. Pelfrey, 23, the Mets’ top draft pick in 2005, did well in his three months in the minor leagues, but struggled at times in his four starts with the Mets.

Unlike in college, where he could dominate by simply throwing his fastball, which can reach 98 miles an hour with nasty sinking movement, Pelfrey labored in the majors without consistent command of his secondary pitches. Before the Mets shut down his season in the Arizona Fall League because of minor arm soreness, Pelfrey improved his changeup and scratched his curveball for a late-breaking slider. His manager in Arizona, Pat Listach, said that Pelfrey left Arizona feeling comfortable with all his pitches.

“I know that we were all very pleased with the improvements Mike made,” Listach said in a recent telephone interview. “Now that he’s found a consistent arm slot for his breaking pitches, his stuff is even more unbelievable.”

Like Pelfrey, Humber is tall and polished, and he could also develop into a future anchor of the rotation. In 2005, he was soaring through the organization until an elbow injury that required reconstructive surgery sidelined him for a year. He recovered quickly, however, and pitched well in two appearances with the Mets last September. His fall season in Arizona ended prematurely after he experienced shoulder tendinitis. He is likely to begin the season at Class AAA New Orleans.

As team officials acknowledge, they promoted Milledge a little too soon last May. His off-field problems during two stints with the Mets generated as much discussion as his superior bat speed. But his name still comes up in trade talks. At the moment, there is no space in the outfield for him. He appears headed for New Orleans and, at some point, he may be joined there by Gómez.

Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2002 at age 16, Gómez, a right-handed hitter, is viewed as having few weaknesses that experience cannot eliminate. He has stolen 105 bases over the past two seasons, and once he fills out his lanky 6-foot-2, 175-pound frame, he is expected to hit about 25 home runs a season. Gómez has a strong arm, which makes him a candidate to shift to right field from center once he is ready for the majors.

The Mets challenged Gómez, then 20, last season by placing him at Class AA Binghamton. After hitting .406 there in July, he finished the season batting .281 with 7 home runs and 48 runs batted in. He will begin the season back in Binghamton.

Martínez is the most precocious player in the system. He batted .279 with 10 homers and held his own defensively at three minor league stops at an age when most players are still in high school.

The Mets are enthralled with his compact swing, 30-homer potential and projection to hit for a high average, and how he handled being the youngest player in the Arizona Fall League. Listach called him the league’s most exciting player and compared him to Carlos Beltrán.

“At 18 years old, I thought he’d be overmatched,” Listach said. “But after the first week, he was passing by people with more experience. His bat speed was tremendous. He hits to the opposite field as well as anyone. And he had the best arm of anyone I saw in the fall league.”

It is natural to fantasize about a future outfield of Gómez, Martínez and Milledge, one that could take the field when the Mets move into their new stadium in 2009. But Beltrán has five years left on his contract and does not figure to be going anywhere soon. Besides, Minaya may just as easily trade one, two or all three before then. It is up to him.

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