MPH System Audit Part I: Outfielders

There will be 6 formal parts of the Audit, and then whatever we feel like throwing into the end will be an informal Part 7. One part will be posted per day, from today (2/7) to 2/12, and then the informal part 7 on 2/13. We hope you enjoy this audit, and as always, email us at: metsprospecthub@yahoo.com with any questions.
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Here is the second annual MetsProspectHub Total System Audit. This year we're much more educated on the system as a whole. We've also learned quite a bit from doing this the first time around. Hopefully, there are vast improvements from Year 1. Here goes...

MPH's Position by Position Prospect Analysis and Ranking
-cowritten by David and Tejesh (with less fighting then last year!)
-ages are in paranthesis next to the players name, and are as of 12/11/07
-B/T is next to age and is in that order
-prospect eligibility for MPH is hitherto defined as 200 ABs or 100 IP in the majors, without regard to days spent on the roster
-Winterball Stats are cutoff as of 1/13/08
-thanks to TJD of NYFS and lifeattwentyfive.com (your usual Tej snark: because after 25, nothing matters ;))

Affiliate Guide:

New Orleans: AAA Pacific Coast League
Binghamton: AA Eastern League
St. Lucie: A+ Florida State League
Savannah: A South Atlantic League (Sally)
Brooklyn: A- New York Penn League (Penn)
Kingsport: R Appalachian League (Appy)
GCL Mets: R Gulf Coast League
DSL Mets: R Dominican Summer League
VSL Mets: R venezuelan Summer league

Outfielders

The Mets thinned out their OF ranks quite a bit with the trades of Sean Henry (a toolsy OF converted from middle infield) and Dustin Martin (Corey Coles with more power, and 2 years ahead), combined with the graduation, and then subsequent throwing away of Lastings Milledge (at least in Tej's opinion). The late breaking trade of Carlos Gomez turns what was a strength last year into a weakness this year. It is amazing what a dismal return we got on our OF prospects, and speaks volumes about the over-aggressive Met's policy working against them.

We didn't import much this season, with regards to the OF, just Cesar Puello, a Dominican signing this season, who was thought very highly of (he was brought to Shea to take BP, they don't do that for everyone!)

1. Fernando Martinez (19) L/R (AA Binghamton .271/.336/.377/.703, 60 games, 64 for 236, 32 runs, 11 2b, 3b, 4 HR, 21 RBI, 20/51 BB/K, 3/7 SBs)

Omar Minaya made the Mets a player in the Latin American scene by signing Carlos Beltran in the winter of 2004. In the summer of 2005, Fernando Martinez signed with the Mets, partly due to Beltran's signing. Given a $1.4 million bonus, Martinez had a lot to live up to.

And live up he did. He spent the bulk of his rookie season with Hagerstown of the Sally League, and put up ridiculously impressive numbers .333/.389/.505. Combined over two levels, including a 30 game trip to the Florida State League, where he was the youngest position player, FMart hit .279/.336/.457 with incredible XBH power, 32 in 315 ABs.

FMart concluded his 2006 season by hitting .253/.305/.379 in the Arizona Fall League, again, as the youngest player in the league. The sky is the limit for Nando, he could eventually become a perennial 40/40 threat.

As the 2007 season progressed, several blemishes began to appear on the still 18 year old mega prospect. His defense was called into question by several scouts, and he lost a step or two as he filled out. What last year looked like a 40/40 ceiling, this year turned into a 40/20 ceiling, and potentially less SBs, as he continues to fill out.

When Fernando wasn't injured this year, he was in AA Binghamton, playing CF for the Mets. He hit .271/.336/.377/.703 in 60 games, 236 ABs. Injuries are a concern with Martinez, as he has missed significant time in each of his 2 seasons with the Mets.

Much like Gomez, but for different reasons, Martinez hasn't, as of yet, had a chance to get his bearings at any minor league level above A ball. If our projection holds, he should be back in AA to start 2008, and should benefit from "repeating" the level. He has all the tools to be a special talent offensively, and has skills eclipsing the vast majority of his age-mates. He controls the strike zone very well for someone his age, as evidenced by his relatively low K-rates (.195 in Hagerstown, .202 in St. Lucie, and .216 in Binghamton). Also, he draws a fair amount of walks (.395 BB/K ratio in Hagerstown, .250 in St. Lucie, and .392 in Binghamton). He continues to work on taking walks, but boasts good pitch recognition which strengthens his ability to stay back on secondary pitches and hit to all fields. At this point, however, much of Martinez's game is based on projection. While already an above average talent, at least when compared to his age-mates, there is a vast amount of untapped potential, as Martinez is still only 18 years old. Martinez is a slightly above average base runner with respectable base stealing abilities. He is still learning the finer points of swiping bases, but his fairly regular speed will prevent him from being a constant threat on the bases. His speed is conducive for the defense, but you will not see him flying around the outfield. Martinez profiles as a plus defensive left fielder, due to the fact(s) that he does not have a centerfielder's range, nor a rightfielder's arm.

ETA. 2010(with a chance to earn a mid-late season call up in 2009). As stated earlier, a lot of Martinez's game is projection, and if he fulfills all the expectations put on him, then you can expect to see him at the heart of a major league batting order, and quite possibly by 2011 or 2012. Most projections see Martinez at least putting up .300/30/100, and that is the low side of his potential. Martinez truly has the talent to be one of the best players in baseball. Martinez was the youngest player in the Eastern League last season with Binghamton. The Mets have not shied away from testing their young stud with each passing year, and he seems to be on short path to the big leagues. He has 560 career at-bats so far, but seems primed to begin the upcoming season right back in AA where he was all of 2007. Assuming a full season's worth of ABs in AA in 2008, he should be in AAA to begin 2009, and at the latest, be in the majors in 2010.

2. Brahiam Maldonado (22) R/R (A Savannah .310/.349/.500/.849, 95 for 306, 40 runs, 20 2b, 4 3b, 10 HR, 39 RBI, 19/79 BB/K, 11/15 SBs)

Maldonado was drafted out of St. Francis High, in Puerto Rico, in the 10th round of the 2004 draft. He was sent to the GCL Mets as an 18 year old, and struggled, hitting .185/.272/.238 in 151 ABs. A repeat of that level in 2005 produced slightly better results, .256/.355/.359. Maldonado spent the 2006 season with Kingsport of the Appy League, and produced his best season, .281/.363/.530, as a 20 year old.

We said last year that his season in Kport boded well for Maldonado, assuming he could build off it. Well, mission accomplished, Maldonado performed very well in his first taste of full season ball, shattering his previous career high for average. And going into 2008 as a 22 year old in the Florida State League, he is right on pace for a prospect.

The one thing that Maldonado needs to work on is plate discipline, as evidenced by the greater then 4:1 K:BB ratio. Indeed, even when Maldonado was ripping the ever loving cover off the ball (.321/.357/.520 from May 1st to August 1st (the time of his injury)) - he only managed a 14:63 BB/K ratio. He flashed very good power in the Sally League, and if he can continue to exhibit the high averages he has hit for the last 2 seasons, he should jump onto a lot more prospect radars.

Much of Maldonado's power goes up the middle and to the pull side, but he does have decent power to the opposite field. As discussed earlier, Maldonado has made significant strides every year he's been in the system, with a constantly improving batting average. At the same time, he's shown improvements in his slugging every year. As he continues to grow and add more weight, he could be a hitter capable of maintaining a very solid average and with good additional home run power. One of the more overlooked aspects of Maldonado's game is his speed. On top of being a smart baserunner, he has the natural speed to take extra bases and get his share of triples. Additionally, he can steal bases when he has to. He should further refine the art of stealing as he gains more experience at the upper levels.

His defense is an area of his game which still needs more work. His speed allows him to chase down most balls hit in his direction, but he gets bad breaks on balls, and he committed a tad too many errors (8) in 2007. Nevertheless, he has the arm strength and the legs to be a quality corner outfielder.

ETA. 2011. Right now, Maldonado is a good way from the majors (3 years), and if he continues along his path of steady improvement year to year, he should be ready at the start of the 2011 season. Coincidently, Carlos Beltran's contract runs out after the 2011 season. Now, we're not insinuating that Maldonado is going to step into Beltran's shoes, but were he to continue along his path of steady improvement, one has to wonder what the Mets would do. We expect Maldonado to secure a starting role with St. Lucie this upcoming season. Another fine year could bump him up mid-season, but a conservative outlook is he will spend three more years in the minors with one at each level. That should make him big league ready at the start of the 2011 season.

3. Dan Stegall (20) L/R (A Savannah .200/.249/.243/.492, 64 games 47 for 235, 23 runs, 6 2b, 2 3b, 14 RBI, 14/55 BB/K, 9/15 SBs, R Kingsport .226/.323/.315/.638, 66 games, 56 for 248, 32 runs, 10 2b, 6 3b, 27 RBI, 33/67 BB/K, 11/14 SBs)

Total 2007 Stats: .213/.293/.280/.573, 130 games, 103 for 483, 55 runs, 16 2b, 8 3b, 41 RBI, 20/29 SBs, 51/122 BB/K

The Mets drafted Stegall in the 7th round of the 2006 draft, 214th overall, out of Greenwood High School in Arkansas, after hitting .500 his senior year. A two sport star in high school, Stegall featured a low to mid 90s fastball from the right side, but the Mets were drawn to his outfield abilities, not the power arm.

Upon drafting him, they sent him to the Gulf Coast League, where he hit .214/.324/.262/.586 in 40 games, 145 ABs. Last season was split between full season A ball Savannah, and short-season rookie ball Kingsport.

As evidenced by Stegall's good BB/K ratios, Stegall is an extremely patient hitter, especially for a kid his age. However, he also struggles to identify pitches, and that's why he strikes out at an above-average clip. Scouts eventually see him as basically a Ryan Church type, with a high number of doubles and decent HR power. Stegall is very athletic and quick. He rushed for nearly 1,500 yards in high school while playing quarterback and he has the type of speed to steal 20+ bases per year once he learns the nuances of base running. Due to the fact that he did rush for 1500 yards, and play QB in high school, he profiles as an above-average defender in either corner outfield spot.

As seen by the low batting averages and no power, Stegall is still very raw at theplate, and he'll need to cut down on the strikeouts and put the ball in play more to tap his potential, but the talent is certainly there. Focusing on just baseball for the first time in his life however, it may take him a while to gain his confidence and
refine his tools.

ETA. 2012. The Mets have been very aggressive promoting their high-ceiling, and Stegall was no exception, opening 2007 in the Savannah outfield. However, after taking a significant step back, we would expect Stegall to repeat the level in 2008, still at the ripe young age of 20. That would put him on pace for a level per season, spending a total of 4 more seasons in the minors, before cracking the majors in 2012.

4. Raul Reyes (20) L/L (A- Brooklyn .233/321/.423/.744, 71 games, 59 for 253, 42 runs, 13 2b, 4 3b, 9 HR, 33 RBI, 27/94 BB/K, 9/15 SBs)

The Mets signed Reyes prior to the 2005 season, then sent the 18 year old to the Dominican Summer League, where he hit .263 in 71 games, with 33 runs scored, 30 RBI, 12 2b, 3 3b, 4 HR, and 6 SB. In 2006, Reyes played for the Kingsport Mets of the Appalachian League, hitting .273/.393/.413 in 37 games. He had 10 2b, 2 3b, HR, 18 RBI, 20/34 BB/K, and 3 steals in 5 tries.

For the 2007 season, Reyes was bumped up to the New York Penn League, where he struggled, hitting .233/.321/.423, and striking out an alarming 94 times in just 253 ABs. In twice the ABs he got in Kport, Reyes had 13 2b, 4 3b, 9 HR, 33 RBI, and 9 steals in 15 tries.

Obviously, Reyes needs to cut back on the strikeouts, his K rate of .372 projects out to 223 Ks in 600 ABs, that's Adam Dunn territory, minus the walks and power. As with most Latin American players, Reyes is a free swinger, and not much of a walk taker. With the aggressive nature of the Mets with regards to promotions, it wouldn't surprise us to see Reyes open 2008 in Savannah, alongside Richard Pena and Daniel Stegall, as part of a very young, very raw outfield.

Reyes is a student of the "you don't walk your way off the island" school, and that was in full evidence during the 07 season, as he piled up the strikeouts and had the lowest average of his young career. Nonetheless, when he does connect with the ball, he has shown big league power. He can drive the ball to the gaps and knock one out of the park with ease when he hits one flush. He projects best as a .265-.280 hitter with considerable power at the top of the order. Reyes has very good speed, which like the other parts of his game, is still raw and unrefined (career 60% SB success rate (12 of 20)). He uses his speed to cover huge swaths of ground in the outfield.

ETA. mid-late 2012. Raul Reyes has tremendous potential, but he must sharpen and refine his game to fulfill it. He has to cut down on his strikeouts, in addition to building patience as he typically hits atop the batting order. Reyes should hit the majors in four years, spending a season in each level from Savannah to New Orleans.

5. Gabriel Zavala (20) R/R (R GCL .285/.364/.479/.843, 49 games, 47 for 165, 22 runs, 8 2b, 3 3b, 6 HR, 30 RBI, 10/54 BB/K, 3/3 SBs)

The Mets signed Zavala as an International Free Agent in 2004, and after spending 2 seasons with the VSL Mets, he came stateside in 2007, playing for the Gulf Coast League Mets, and having a very good "rookie" season. He showed good tools with his bat, hitting .285, and also flashed very good power, hitting 8 doubles, 3 triples, and 6 hr in only 165 AB.

ETA. late 2012.Given the Mets aggressive promotions, there is no reason to believe Zavala won't be competing for a job at Savannah in spring training. Of course, he could follow the Stegall/Veloz route, as well.

6. Richard Pena (20) R/R (R Kingsport .227/.365/.357/.722, 47 games, 35 for 154, 33 runs, 5 2b, 3 3b, 3 HR, 14 RBI, 28/46 BB/K, 7/7 SBs, A Savannah .205/.367/.359/.726, 11 games, 8 for 39, 9 runs, 2b, 3b, HR, 2 RBI, 10/10 BB/K, 2/2 SBs)

Total 2007 Stats: .223/.366/.358/.723, 58 games, 43 for 193, 42 runs, 6 2b, 4 3b, 4 HR, 16 RBI, 9/9 SBs, 38/56 BB/K

Pena was signed in the 2005 International Free Agent signing period, and made his stateside debut the follow season, in the Gulf Coast League. He didn't have a spectacular 2007 season, but showed very good ability to get on base, sported a nice K:BB ratio, and flashed some very nice tools, whether it was with the bat or with the glove.

In an interview with Pena's teammate for part of the season, Greg Veloz, Veloz described Pena as one of the players to watch in 2007 and beyond.

"NYFS: Who are some of the guys on the team we should make sure to watch?

Veloz: I'd have to say Richard Pena and Pedro Martinez... without hesitation! Pena is just ripping it and tearing it up. He makes killer plays in OF and has a really strong bat."

LINK: NYFS Interview with Greg Veloz

ETA. late-2011.

7. Pedro Zapata (20) R/R (DSL Mets: .325/.382/.425/.807, 41 games, 52 for 160, 27 runs, 6 2b, 5 3b, 12/30 BB/K, 23/29 SBs)

Zapata was signed prior to the 2007 season out of the Dominican Republic. While playing in the DSL, Zapata displayed his excellent speed and ability to hit for average. We should know more about Zapata once he starts playing in the states.

8. Ezequiel Carrera (20) L/L (R GCL 45 games, .341/.430/.436/.886, 61 for 179, 41 runs, 8 2b, 3 3b, HR, 26 RBI, 26/29 BB/K, 16/21 SBs, A- Brooklyn 20 games, .300/.347/.329/.676, 21 for 70, 11 runs, 2 2b, 6 RBI, 4/13 BB/K, 6/7 SBs

Total 2007 Stats: .329/.408/.406/.814, 65 games, 82 for 249, 52 runs, 10 2b, 3 3b, HR, 32 RBI, 22/28 SBs, 30/42 BB/K

The Mets signed Carrera during the 2005 season, out of Venezuela, and he played in the VSL in 2006, hitting.301/.365/.380, with 22 steals, and a 16/28 BB/K ratio. For the 07 season, he was brought stateside, first in the Gulf Coast League, then in the New York Penn League. Overall, he flashed a very advanced eye, with a 0.75 BB/K ratio, and very good speed, shown by the 78.57% success rate in steals.

Carrera has shown an advanced approach at the plate, as evidenced by his high batting averages (over .300 at every stop he has made), and high IsoDs (64 in the VSL in 2006, 89 in the GCL in 2007, and 47 in the NYPL). Not much of a power hitter, Carrera has a short, quick stroke that allows him to slap the ball around the field. The one negative offensively with Carrera is his vastly lower average against southpaws, as compared to righties. He has shown excellent speed in the minors, as evidenced by his career 72% SB success rate. Any ball hit to the gap is a threat to turn into a triple with Carrera's speed. Thanks to that terrific speed, Carrera finds very few balls out of his reach. He's an above average defender, though he doesn't possess the arm strength boasted by several of his CF companions in the organization (Beltran, Gomez, Concepcion).

ETA. mid-2012. Carrera's ability to hit for a high average, when combined with his IsoD, bodes well for his future. While there is not a lot of power projection in his frame, he profiles as someone who will hit for a high average, have a high on-base percentage, and steal between 40 and 50 bases at the major league level. In his first season in the States, Carrera made two very positive stops in the Gulf Coast League, and in Brooklyn and hit .300 or above in both locations. He appeared in only 20 games with Brooklyn, but that should be his only stay in the NY-Penn League. He should break camp with Savannah in the South Atlantic League this upcoming season to challenge for the starting centerfield spot and then move up one level per season before being major league ready in 2012.

9. Cesar Puello (16)

2007 IFA signee. Was brought to Shea Stadium for batting practice, something that is NOT done for your run of the mill IFAs. Portends good things to come, we think, and he should be one to watch going forward with his high upside.

10. Darren Clark (24) L/L (R Kingsport .277/.356/.469/.825, 36 for 130, 23 runs, 8 2b, 3b, 5 HR, 19 RBI, 13/27 BB/K, A Savannah, .304/.354/.413/.767, 28 for 92, 12 runs, 4 2b, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 6/17 BB/K)

Total 2007 Stats: .288/.355/.446/.801, 64 for 222, 35 runs, 12 2b, 3b, 7 HR, 32 RBI, 19/44 BB/K, 5/6 SBs

The Mets signed Clark out of Southern University in August of 2006 as an undrafted free agent. Clark hit .271/.314/.523/.837 in his senior season, with 6 homers in 107 ABs. In 2007, he split time between Kingsport and Savannah.