MPH System Audit Part Vb: Starting Pitchers 9-15

9. Phillips Orta (21) R/R (R VSL 0-0, 1.29 era, 4 G, 3 GS, 14 IP, 8 H, 3/12 BB/K, .79 WHIP, R Kingsport 2-2, 4.58 era, 11 GS, 53 IP, 62 H, 21/45 BB/K, 1.57 WHIP, A Savannah 27 era, 0.2 IP, 5 BBs, K, 25 WHIP)

Total 2007 Stats: 2-2, 3.90 era, 15 G, 13 GS, 67 IP, 70 H, 24 BBs, 57 Ks, 1.40 WHIP

The Mets selected Orta in the 10th round of the 2006 draft out of Western Nebraska Community College. After signing in 2007 as a draft and follow, the Mets sent him to the Venezuelan Summer League, where he appeared in 4 games, pitching 14 innings to a 1.29 era. The Mets brought him stateside and sent him to Kingsport next, where he spent the bulk of the season, starting 11 games (53 IP), pitching to a 2-2, 4.58 line. He spent one relief outing in Savannah, getting bombed due to command issues.

Repertoire: Fastball, Curveball, Changeup

Orta's fastball is one of the best in the system, blazing in in the mid 90s. He also has a low 90s 4 seamer can he pound in the bottom of the strike zone. The 4 seamer has good tailing movement and once he learns to really paint the pitch, it should become even deadlier on hitters. Orta's primary secondary (hahaha) pitch is a curveball he throws in the 78-83 range. It is sharp curveball with which he has consistent command. His curveball has good, late snap to it and does not so much curl through the strike zone as it does shred through the zone. His arsenal is capped off by a developing changeup which will become more devastating once he can gain better command of it. Orta boasts two plus pitches that allow him to attack hitters by keeping them off balance with his high velocity and strong breaking ball. He needs to work on his command, as even excluding that ridiculous Savannah relief outing, he walked 24 in 67 innings, or 3.22/9. Including that outing skyrockets that number to 3.86/9.

ETA. 2012. As this was Orta's first pro season, projecting his career proves difficult. He has the velocity to be a front end starter, but he needs to improve his command to achieve that lofty projection. He has been said to have #2 potential, however, and projects as a 3-4 if all goes well. We should know more about his future at the end of the 2008 season. Orta finished 2007 in Savannah, and that should be where he opens 2008. Spending 3 more seasons in the minors would put him on a course to make the majors in 2012.

10. Gavin Dlouhy (19) R/R (R GCL 1-1, 2.49 era, 8 G, 4 GS, 25.1 IP, 23 H, 6/34 BB/K, 1.14 WHIP)

The Mets signed Dlouhy out of Australia in July of 2006, and he made his debut a year later for the GCL Mets, but only managed 25.1 innings in a crowded staff.

Dlouhy features a low 90s fastball, developing change, and a good splitter. He should open the season in A ball. He was highly regarded out of Australia, and has put up good numbers in limited time. His stuff is good enough to move up in the ranks of starting pitcher prospects in the system, and should be one to watch going forward. He is definite a sleeper candidate in 2008.

11. Dillon Gee (21) R/R (SOU UT-Arlington 4-8, 4.67 era, 16 GS, 111.2 IP, 138 H, 22/96 BB/K, 1.43 WHIP, A- Brooklyn 3-1, 2.47 era, 14 G, 11 GS, 62 IP, 57 H, 9/56 BB/K, 1.06 WHIP) + 5 ip, 4 h, bb, 8 ks

Total 2007 Stats: 7-9, 3.78 era, 31 G, 28 GS, 178.2 IP, 199 H, 32/160 BB/K, 1.29 WHIP

The Mets drafted Gee with their 21st round pick, 663rd overall, out of the University of Arlington Texas, where he was 4-8, 4.67 in 111.2 innings. After signing, the Mets assigned him to Brooklyn, where he went 3-1, 2.47 in 62 innings. Gee should be a part of the St. Lucie Mets in 2008.

12. Eric Niesen (22) L/L (ACC Wake Forest 6-5, 3.00 era, 30 G, 7 GS, 84 IP, 66 H, 38/83 BB/K, 1.24 WHIP, A- Brooklyn 0-3, 3.30 era, 9 GS, 30 IP, 30 H, 25/27 BB/K, 1.83 WHIP, A+ St. Lucie 0-0, 0.00 era, 2 G, GS, 4 IP, 3 H, 4 BBs, 4 Ks, 1.75 WHIP)

Total 2007 Stats: 6-8, 2.97 era, 41 G, 17 GS, 118 IP, 99 H, 67/114 BB/K, 1.41 WHIP

The Mets selected Niesen in the 3rd round of the 2007 draftt, with their 99th overall pick, out of Wake Forest University, where he was 6-5, with a 3.00 era in 84 innings. After signing, the Mets sent him to Brooklyn, where he got into 9 games, all starts, but only totalling 30 innings. He ended his season with the St. Lucie Mets as they made a push to the playoffs, and he got into 2 games for them, one start during the regular season (3 innings), and one relief outing during the playoffs (1 inning). Overall, he had an ERA a shade under 3 in 118 innings split between 3 "levels" as it were.

We would expect Niesen to open 2008 right where he ended 2007, in St. Lucie. Whether it be in a starting role or relief role remains to be seen. We would hope Niesen remains in the bullpen where his fastball can be used as a true plus pitch.

Here is a pre-draft scouting report, which will be followed by a post-season scouting report.

Fastball: Since moving into the bullpen, Niesen's fastball has been a plus, touching the mid-90s.
Slider: Some like his slider, but others grade it as below-average.
Changeup: Niesen's change is a below-average pitch.
Control: His command is below-average as well.
Physical Description: Niesen is a small lefty with a low three-quarters arm angle and fits a Dan Reichert-type body mold.
Medical Update: H ealthy.
Strengths: Plus velocity on his fastball with an interesting arm angle.
Weaknesses: None of his other pitches grade out average or above.
Summary: Niesen has found success since moving into Wake Forest's bullpen earlier in the season. His fastball has picked up a few notches, and he throws it with a three-quarter arm angle. That being said, he lacks deception for a lefty reliever and his other pitches lag behind the fastball.

Here is how Niesen sees/describes himself:

He throws a fastball, slider and changeup. His fastball sits 93-94, topping out at 95. His slider and changeup both sit in the 78-83 range. He feels he needs to work on his consistency with his offspeed pitches. He compares himself to Billy Wagner in terms of the guy he wants to pitch like.

Repertoire: Fastball, Slider, Changeup

As a reliever, Niesen can dial his fastball into the 93-95 range, but as a starter, it sits more in the 91-93 area. Since he does not have exception velocity on his fastball when starting, location is paramount. Niesen relies on his slider as a finishing pitch and a way to induce groundballs. He throws it 78-82, with good downward movement. He also throws a changeup which is a work in progress, this pitch is in the 81-83 range. Despite not boasting plus stuff, Niesen isn't shy about pitching to contact, and he will go right after hitters. He is more consistent within the strike zone then he appeared to be last season, his high walk total was more of an anomaly. That should be seen better in 2008, with a greater sample size of IP.

ETA. mid-late 2010. Niesen projects as a 3-4 starter or a back of the bullpen reliever down the line. If he does want to start in the majors, he must add a 4th pitch to his arsenal. He should open 2008 in St. Lucie, where he ended 2007, which would then give him 2 more years in the minors, before a mid to late 2010 debut.

13. Josh Stinson (19) R/R (A Savannah 3-11, 4.86 era, 26 G, 21 GS, 109.1 IP, 131 H, 33/52 BB/K, 1.50 WHIP

The Mets drafted Stinson in the 37th round of the 2006 draft, and sent him to the rookie level Gulf Coast League, where he went 1-2 with a 2.00 era in 9 games (4 starts), totalling 27 innings. A late season promotion to Hagerstown of the South Atlantic League didn't derail the righty, as he put up a 0-1 record, but an outstanding 1.35 era in 3 starts, 13.1 IP. He combined between the two levels to go 1-3 with a 1.79 era. The Mets found themselves another steal with Stinson, since he was projected to go around rounds 8 to 10. Instead, he dropped to the 37th round, but signed for 7th round money.

Stinson features 5 pitches, a 2 and 4 seam fastball, slider, curve and change. His fastball varies from 85-89, sometimes topping out at 94. Due to the various speeds at which this pitch is thrown, he must spot it correctly, or it can hurt him because he does not get many batters to swing and miss at it. He prefers his two-seam fastball which, despite its wide range of speeds, has a strong downward movement and enough life to it that he can induce many groundballs. His best seconary pitch is his changeup, which has a deceiving drop which makes hitters believe it his two-seamer when it comes out of his hand. His curveball is his best breaking pitch, and he made strides with this pitch, working it into many more counts, and gaining confidence in it. He fools around with a slider, but only throws it as a get me over pitch.

We said this about Stinson last year: Expect Stinson to open the 2007 season as a 19 year old in the South Atlantic League, with the new class A affiliate Savannah. A promotion to the Florida State League wouldn't be out of the question.

However, that didn't come to frutition, as Stinson struggled to find himself in Savannah, and spent the entire season there, barely managing to get his ERA under 5. Stinson's stock has dropped a bit in the last year, but he is still young enough to turn that around. He needs to gain a few ticks on his fastball, and strengthen his curve and change. He should spend all of 2008 in St. Lucie, affording him a friendly ball park to make adjustments to his game. It looks like he will still need another three years of minor league baseball until he breaks into the bigs.

14. Tobi Stoner (23) R/R (A Savannah 3-5, 3.61 era, 11 GS, 57.1 IP, 59 H, 17/50 BB/K, 1.33 WHIP, A+ St. Lucie 4-5, 4.90 era, 16 GS, 82.2 IP, 90 H, 25/57 BB/K, 1.39 WHIP)

Total 2007 Stats: 7-10, 4.37 era, 27 GS, 140 IP, 149 H, 42/107 BB/K, 1.36 WHIP

Stoner was drafted in the 16th round out of Davis and Elkins College, in 2006, where as a senior, he went 8-6 with a 2.90 era in 18 games, 12 of which were starts. In 90 innings, he allowed 85 hits while walking 16 and striking out 79.

He should start the 2007 season as a 23 year old with Savannah, although an outside shot of him opening in St. Lucie exists.

Stoner did open in Savannah, but he ended in St. Lucie, with mixed results. He performed very well on a very young and inexperienced Savannah team, but struggled upon his promotion to the higher league. We would expect Stoner to open 2008 back in St. Lucie, with a mid-season promotion to Binghamton likely.

Repertoire: Fastball, Curveball, Slider, Changeup

Stoner throws a 2 and 4 seam fastball, with his 4-seamer sitting 88-92, touching 94. His two-seam fastball has a lot of natural movement which he also works inside to righties with the goal of breaking bats and inducing ground balls. His three secondary pitches are all highly developed and he is able to throw all of them in any count. The curveball and slider are both Major League ready while his changeup is close to that point. His curve is his favorite secondary pitch, it is a big breaking curve which is in the 70-73 range. He throws a 76-79 MPH slider which improved this year, but he uses this pitch to get hitters to fish. He strengthened his changeup this year by using it in fastball counts and now has the confidence to throw it at any time. With five quality pitches, Stoner isn't afraid to go after hitters and relies on his aggressiveness for success. A very valuable asset for Stoner is that he can throw his 1breaking pitches or changeup even when he is behind in the count. He does suffer through some mental lapses on occasion which lead to his walks and occasional rough innings.

ETA. mid-late 2010. Stoner's as polished as he's going to get from a stuff point of view, but he still needs to work over some mental lapses which lead to innings getting away from him on occasion. Stoner should open in St. Lucie to start 2008, but he'll finish it in Binghamton, with any success. That would put him in line for a 2009 split between Binghamton and New Orleans, with a mid 2010 ready date.

15. Adam Bostick (24) L/L (AAA New Orleans 6-7, 5.50 era, 22 G, 21 GS, 103 IP, 108 H, 48/100 BB/K, 1.51 WHIP, AFL Scottsdale 2-0, 2.74 era, 6 GS, 23 IP, 20 H, 13/23 BB/K, 1.43 WHIP, DWL Estrellas 0-3, 5.51 era, 6 G, 5 GS, 16.1 IP, 17 H, 11/8 BB/K, 1.71 WHIP)

Total 2007 Stats: 8-10, 5.06 era, 34 G, 32 GS, 142.1 IP, 145 H, 72/131 BB/K, 1.52 WHIP

Bostick was drafted in the 6th round of the 2001 draft by the Marlins, and assigned to their Gulf Coast League team. He missed all of the 2002 season with an injury, and began his 03 season with Jamestown of the New York Penn League. He did not get above A ball until the latter half of the 05 season. 2006 was the first time he'd been to AAA ball. On November 20th, 2006, the Marlins traded Bostick, along with Jason Vargas, to the Mets in exchange for a pair of minor league relievers, Matthew Lindstrom and Henry Owens.

Various scouting reports have said that he has a smooth delivery, and pitches at 88-90 mph and tops out at 93 mph. He has known for having the best curveball in the Marlins system, but his changeup needs work. He also has had erratic command and shown a lack of endurance, but only gave up 7 home runs in the 2006 season.

2007 saw the same lack of endurance, as he only averaged 4.90 innings per start. However, unlike 2006, he got lit up in AAA, posting a mid 5 era. After the trades of Humber and Mulvey, Bostick's spot in the 2008 New Orleans rotation is secure. It remains to be seen what he does with it. His lack of endurance, combined with his good strikeout rate would seem to play well in the bullpen, but his ridiculously high walk rate (4.55 per 9) would definitely NOT play well out of the pen. If he improves his control, he could be a useful lefty out of the pen down the line.