MPH System Audit Part II: Corner Infielders

Corner Infielders

The Mets imported three new names in 2007 for this category. First baseman Lucas Duda, taken in the 7th round, who is third on the list after a rookie campaign which can only be called a rousing success, third baseman Richard Lucas, taken in the 4th round, who is 5th on this list after an uneventful rookie season. Last but not least, Dominican third baseman Jefry Marte. Marte is one of Omar's big International Free Agent signings for 2007, but he doesn't quite crack the list just yet. Aside from those names, you have Mike Carp and Nick Evans, who were the incumbent 1-2 last year. The depth has only increased, as opposed to the outfield situation.

1. Mike Carp (21) L/R (AA Binghamton .251/.337/.387/.724, 97 games, 90 for 359, 55 runs, 16 2b, 11 HR, 48 RBI, 39/75 BB/K, AFL Scottsdale .243/.317/.327/.644, 29 games, 26 for 107, 12 runs, 9 2b, 16 RBI, 8/17 BB/K)

Total 2007 Stats: 126 games, 116 for 466, 67 runs, 25 2b, 11 HR, 64 RBI, 47/92 BB/K, .249/.333/.373/.706

Mike Carp was drafted out of Lakewood High in the 9th round of the 2004 draft, after putting up these stats as a senior: 32 games, 52 for 107, 14 2b, 8 3b, 11 HR, 60 RBI, 17 BBs, 11 Ks, .486/.557/1.075 with a 1.632 OPS. He was sent to the Gulf Coast League, where he batted .267/.358/.393 in 57 games. In 2005, playing for Hagerstown of the Sally League, Carp hit .249/.358/.476, blasting 19 homers in 313 ABs. However, Carp hit 11 homers in his first 26 games at mid Class A Hagerstown in 2005 then fell into a deep slump before injuring his right wrist.

2006 was Carp's coming out party, as he put it all together for St. Lucie, with a .287/.379/.450 line, with 27 doubles and 17 homers in 491 ABs. Carp's higher average was a direct result of reinventing his stroke. Where previously, he was an all or nothing pull hitter, in 2006 he concentrated on going the other way, turning himself into a David Wright esque hitter, he's got tremendous natural power the other way. He's got a good approach for his age, combining his willingness to go the other way with an advanced eye at the plate.

Last year, we highlighted Carp's remaining flaw, his inability to handle left handed pitching. That was exacerbated last season, when, in AA, Carp only managed a .177 average versus LHP, with a miniscule .422 OPS (half that of his OPS vs RHP)

Carp has enjoyed a head start in terms of level over Nick Evans all throughout their pro careers, despite being drafted in the same year (2004), and despite Evans being drafted 4 rounds ahead of Carp (5th vs 9th). However, that should change in 2008, with Evans joining Carp in AA Binghamton.

Not to make any excuses for Carp, but he was injured throughout 2008, first with a finger injury, then nagging leg injuries. We feel that Carp will be back in Binghamton for the 2008 season, but there is a possibility that the Mets saw enough in his numbers versus RHP (.279/.377/.457/.834) to send him to the AAA Pacific Coast League, and maintain that one level seperation between Carp and the surging Nick Evans.

He still heads the list at corner infield for MPH, but it's very close, and in our opinion, 2008 is THE make or break year for Carp, age aside. Nick Evans is breathing down his neck, and in some circles, has caught and passed Carp. We still believe Carp can be a very good major league player, but another bad year in AA will put serious crimps in that thinking.

When Carp is healthy, as seen in 2006, he has the power and average to be a viable threat anywhere from 3-6 in the order. Despite the struggles Carp endured, he did not relent from his "new" approach, he still went the other way, and displayed his natural power to all fields. As he moves nearer to the big leagues, and closer to better lefties, his average may move further away from .300, but he can still be a large presence at the heart of the order. There also exists the possibility Carp may eventually require a platoon partner, which could be Evans. On the basepaths, Carp has appropriate speed for his position. He may swipe a bag when an opportunity arises, but he will not be any sort of consistent threat. He runs with smarts and will not put himself in a position to cost his team an out on the base paths. Carp also will not hurt you in the field. He has respectable range and is able to move quickly to be sides with a knack for picking balls both hit and thrown to him. He cleans up well for his infielders with good mobility around the bag.

ETA. 2010. Thinking within the organization didn't change due to Carp's poor season, and there is still optimism that he can fulfill the potential which had him stick around in spring training 2006 until very near the end. He should open 2008 back in Binghamton, which would put him on a mid to late 2010 timetable to be major league ready. Of course, if he opens in New Orleans, that time table gets shortened by a year, assuming he does well in AAA.

2. Nick Evans (21) R/R (A+ St. Lucie .286/.374/.476/.850, 103 games, 108 for 378, 65 runs, 25 2b, 3b, 15 HR, 54 RBI, 53/64 BB/K)

Evans was drafted in the 5th round out of St. Mary's High in Phoenix, in 2004. He signed and went to the Gulf Coast League, where he hit .258/.311/.462 in 50 games. He opened 2005 with Kingsport in the Appalachian League, and hit .344/.382/.734 in 15 games, before being promoted to Brooklyn, where he hit .252/.302/.407 in 57 games. As a 20 year old in the South Atlantic League, Evans hit .254/.320/.419/.739, with 33 doubles and 15 homers in 511 ABs. He was one strikeout shy of 100, and walked 45 times, showing decent plate discipline.

Much like his father before him, he too, is a Jedi...sorry, corny Star Wars joke. Like Carp before him, Evans used the Florida State League as his coming out party. His numbers dramatically improved across the board, highlighted by his BB/K ratio jumping from 0.454 to 0.828. His OPS surged 111 points, with equal weight given to OBP (+54) and SLG (+57). As mentioned above, in some circles, he has caught, and overtaken Mike Carp for the top spot as far as corner infielders go. Indeed, it is an extremely close race at this point.

Indeed, Evans almost mirrored the improvements made by Carp during the 2006 season. Whereas before, Evans had been a streaky hitter, he put together a much better month to month performance last year. With a renewed swing and more discernable eye, Evans strengthened his ability to hit for contact while allowing his power to grow more naturally, which it did. His home run power has been on a steady rise with each passing year and signs point to that trend continuing. If he can keep growing at the plate, he figures to be a .280-.290 hitter who can pop 20-plus home runs per season. As a converted third baseman, Evans is still learning the footwork across the diamond, but he did increase his range in 2007. He will not shine with his glove, but he is capable of making all the necessary plays and save errors for his infielders.

ETA. 2010. If Evans can sustain and build off of the improvements he made in 2007, he projects to hit for pretty good power, between 20 and 25 homers, with a .270-.300 average. However, as we said last year, the trouble that faces Evans is that first base is a highly competitive position right now with Mike Carp sitting between he and the Mets. Evans's ETA is mid 2010, with a year in Binghamton, followed by a year in New Orleans.

3. Lucas Duda (21) L/R (Pac10 USC .280/.378/.468/.846, 53 games, 52 for 186, 26 runs, 8 2b, 3 3b, 7 HR, 34 RBI, 30/36 BB/K, A- Brooklyn .299/.398/.462/.859, 67 games, 70 for 234, 32 runs, 20 3b, 3 3b, 4 HR, 32 RBI, 34/45 BB/K, HWL Waikiki .340/.390/.660/1.050, 15 games, 18 for 53, 12 runs, 6 2b, 3b, 3 HR, 13 RBI, 5/7 BB/K)

Total 2007 Stats: .296/.389/.486/.875, 135 games, 140 for 473, 70 runs, 34 2b, 7 3b, 14 HR, 79 RBI, 69/88 BB/K

Lucas Duda is a 6'4/225 first baseman the Mets drafted in the 7th round (243rd overall) of the 2007 draft.

He got sporadic playing time in his freshman year at USC, only 77 ABs in 34 games. He hit just .208 with a .322 OBP and .299 SLG. We can throw those numbers out the window due to the lack of consistent PT.

In 2006, his sophomore season, he played everyday, getting 191 ABs in 56 games. He hit much better, .298/.391/.398, but with a decided lack of power. He only showed a 1/63.66 HR/AB rate, and had just 12 XBH in 191 ABs. He did, however, show a very good eye at the plate, with a 0.82352 BB/K ratio (walks per strikeout).

In 2007, Duda again played everyday, and hit .280/.378/.468, showing a burgeoning power stroke, increasing his HR/AB ratio to 1/26.57. He had 18 XBH in 186 ABs, with the increase in HR (4) and triples (2) driving his slugging higher. While in college, he had a 0.83333 BB/K ratio, virtually staying the same as in 2006.

In Brooklyn after getting drafted, Duda hit .299/.398/.462, vastly improving the number of doubles he hit. Duda hits lefty, and Keyspan park is death on left handed sluggers, so much so, that Mike Carp was sent to the GCL in 04, then Hagerstown in 05, skipping the deathly confines of Keyspan.

Duda, however, thrived at Keyspan. He hit 20 doubles, 3 triples and 4 homers in 234 ABs. While his BB/K ratio did decline slightly from his USC 07 season, from 0.83333 to 0.75, it was more then offset by the 19 point increase in average. If you take out the 3 IBBs he got, his BB/K ratio drops to 0.68888, which is still very solid.

Duda's Brooklyn splits are very interesting, as far as lefty/righty goes. Versus lefties, Duda hit .342/.405/.605/1.010 with 7 2b and 1 HR in 38 ABs. He struck out 11 times and walked 3 times. Versus righties he batted .296/.401/.436/.837 with 12 2b, 2 3b and 3 HR in 179 ABs. He struck out 27 times and walked 28 times. We'll have to see if this trend continues at the higher levels, but so far, it is extremely promising. His K rate vs LHP was very high at .289, but the sample size (38 ABs) is too low to draw many conclusions. His K rate vs RHP was .151.

THE FUTURE: Duda should be opening his first full season in St. Lucie, manning first base for a completely new look Mets infield. Duda, at least so far in his pro career, has shown the ability to handle lefthanders. If this trend continues in St. Lucie, and Carp/Murphy scuffle in Binghamton vs LHP, Duda might vault all the way to the top spot in corner infielders. But that's a long long way off. For now, Duda fans should focus on his developing power, and his ability to control the strike zone.

Duda is a very solid contact hitter who is adept at driving balls back through middle. His .299 average in Brooklyn is a testament to that skill considering his swing was a work in progress for most of the season. His 93 IsoD shows that he has a very good knowledge of the strike zone, and his .784 BB/K ratio and .186 K rate shows that he controls the strike zone extremely well. Though he can drive the ball to the gaps for extra-bases, he still leaves much to be desired out of his home run power given his size and his position. There are hopes in the organization that as Duda's swing becomes more compact, and as he generates more bat speed, that his home run power will come. Duda's got true closet wheels (unlike Lo Duca who lied about it, lol). While he won't steal many bases, he can leg out triples and won't hurt the team running. Duda's a steady defensive first baseman, but still has a good amount of work to do. He throws well and has respectable range, but he did commit six errors which came as a result of his subpar footwork and hard hands.

Duda showed a lot in his banner rookie season, hitting close to .300 with a 99 IsoD, and 163 IsoP. As he gains more muscle on his frame, look for increased power from Duda. By all indications, he looks to be about 1 level behind Carp and Evans to begin 2008, and will be around the same age, so he does have some catching up to do. However, first he must show he can continue to hit with this season's consistency at the higher levels. We would expect Duda to spend all of 2008 with St. Lucie, before moving up a level per year and being ready for the major leaguees at the start of the 2011 season.

ETA. mid-late 2011. Duda will be 22 at the start of next season, and given his age and playing experience, it would be no surprise if the Mets tested him by placing him in St. Lucie at the start of the 2008 campaign. His ETA could move up a year based on his performance, but this would place him on a pace to move up one level each of the next three seasons before breaking into the big leagues sometime during 2011.

4. Dan Murphy (22) L/R (A+ St. Lucie .285/.338/.430/.768, 135 games, 143 for 502, 68 runs, 34 2b, 3 3b, 11 HR, 78 RBI, 42/61 BB/K, 6/9 SBs, HWL Waikiki .274/.343/.495/.837, 26 games, 26 for 95, 17 runs, 9 2b, 4 HR, 21 RBI, 11/22 BB/K)

Total 2007 Stats: .283/.339/.441/.779, 169 for 597, 85 runs, 43 2b, 3 3b, 15 HR, 99 RBI, 7/10 SBs, 53/83 BB/K

Murphy was selected in the 13th round of the 2006 draft out of Jacksonville University, where as a junior, he hit .398/.470/.534/1.004 with 10 2b, 3b, 6 HR in 221 ABs. He also stoles 15/22 bases, and had a ridiculous 34/13 BB/K ratio. His K rate was an absurdly low .0588, and his BB/K ratio was an equally absurd 2.6154. He throws right and bats lefty.

He has shown a history of vast improvement in his plate discipline. His freshman year at Jacksonville, he hit .377/.455/.506/.961, with 5 2b, 3b, HR, in 77 ABs. He struck out 13 times, a K rate of .168, and a 9/13 BB/K ratio, or 0.6923. His sophomore season, he hit .329/.381/.429/.810, with 12 2b, 2 3b, 2 HR in 219 ABs, and a 11/23 BB/K ratio. His K rate was .105, and his BB/K ratio was 0.4783.

After the Mets took him, he played at 3 levels, Kingsport, Brooklyn, and the GCL. Overall, he batted .213/.315/.300/.615 in 80 ABs. He had a 12/7 BB/K ratio, and a 0.0875 K rate, and a 1.7143 BB/K ratio.

This year, Murphy was in St. Lucie, and he batted .285/.338/.430 in 502 ABs, with 34 2b, 3 3b and 11 HR. He had a BB/K ratio of 42/61, or 0.6885. His K rate was .122. His lefty/righty splits show that he is more adapt at hitting RHP.

Murphy hit .257/.317/.368/.685 vs LHP, 37 for 133, with 5 2b, 3b, 3 HR, and an 11/19 BB/K ratio, or 0.5789. His K rate vs LHP was .132. Versus RHP, he hit .295/.345/.454/.799, 106 for 359, with 29 2b, 2 3b, 8 HR and a 30/44 BB/K ratio, or 0.6818. His K rate vs RHP was .123.

THE FUTURE: Murphy should be manning third base for the Binghamton Mets in 2008, and as with Mike Carp, how well he hits lefties will determine his future. Both Carp and Murphy can abuse RHP, however, how they fare vs LHP will determine whether they truly emerge as serious contenders to man 1b for the Mets in 2009.

Murphy was healthy for the first time in 2 seasons, and it showed in a big way. He is a natural doubles hitters who can drive the ball to all fields while maintaining a high batting average. He can control the strike zone, as seen by his .122 K-ratee and 0.6885 BB/K ratio. However, he is a free swinger who prefers to hit his way on base, and from his swing he looks capable of hitting .300 in the future. He doesn't have the power typical for a corner infielder, but there's still time for him to develop more. Murphy committed a frightening amount of errors last season (36), as he struggled with fielding balls cleanly and making accurate throws. His arm strength is not suited to third base, but he can make all the throws he needs to, when he needs to. Overall, speculation exists as to whether or not Murphy will be able to stay at third base in the future, but he is athletic enough to play other positions in the field if he were to move from the hot corner.

ETA. 2010. Scouts do not know how to project Murphy's future. He currently does not possess the power scouts are looking for out of a third baseman, and combined with his defensive woes last season, he may be a man without a position in the future if he cannot get either of those elements headed in a positive direction. As some of his gap power turns into home run power and he irons out his mechanical flaws in the field, Murphy could find his way into a starting role. However at this time a future role as a utility infielder is more accurate. We would expect Murphy to open 2008 in Binghamton, with a possible 2009 jump to New Orleans, which would put him in position to open 2010 on a major league roster.

5. Richard Lucas (19) R/R (R GCL .264/.320/.349/.669, 52 games, 56 for 212, 27 runs, 8 2b, 2 3b, 2 HR, 30 RBI, 15/66 BB/K)

The Mets picked Lucas in the 4th round of the 2007 draft out of Wolfson high school in Florida, where as a senior, he batted .338 with 7 homers.

Lucas is naturall very raw, having been drafted out of high school. However, he did take several strides forward in his rookie season, including showing an ability to take pitches the other way. For now, he is more comfortable with pitches down in the strike zone as his slightly long swing leads to an inability to handle pitches that are up. In terms of plate discipline, he had a 0.2273 BB/K ratio, and a .311 K rate this season. His long swing led to the strikeouts, but as his knowledge of the strike zone improves, the holes in his swing should close. Lucas is a good fielder, but is a bit scatter armed (does that remind you of another third baseman in the organization?). He moves and reacts very well to the ball and has good range to both sides. He has soft hands and picks the ball cleanly but his problems arrive when he makes his throws. He is still trying to find a consistent release point from which to make his throws, which led to several of his throws sailing on him in 2007.

It is much too early to project anything about Lucas, as he's just a summer removed from high school. Suffice to say that his ability to remain at third base is directly tied to his power projection. As he does not play another position, as of right now, it's third base or bust. Lucas should be held in extended spring training until one of the short season teams start up, whether it be the rookie level Gulf Coast League or Appalachian League, or the low A New York Penn League. There is a very outside chance of him opening in Savannah, but it is unlike with Nick Giarraputo and Jose Jiminez ahead of him on that particular depth chart (as they've spent more time in the minors).

6. Zach Lutz (Alvernia 64 for 141, 49 runs, 15 2b, 3 3b, 12 HR, 58 RBI, 32/9 BB/K, 10/10 SBs, .454/.541/.858)

2007: Drafted by the New York Mets in the 5th round (183rd overall) of the 2007 First Year Player Draft...Started in 40 games for the Crusaders...finished 7th in DIII with a .454 batting average...finished 8th in DIII with 12 home runs...ended 2nd in DIII in slugging percentage with a .858 mark...ended 4th in DIII in RBI's per game with 1.49/game...finished 27th in DIII in walks per game with .82/game...also finished 30th in runs per game (1.26) and 91st in doubles per game (.38/game)...had a team season-high 6 hits against Montclair State (3/15 07)...had 17 multiple RBI games...also went 4-2 from the rubber, with a 5.18 ERA in 5 starts...NBCWA National Position Player Of The Year...D3baseball.com National Player of the Year...PAC Player of the Year...Second Team All-American (Utility)...All-PAC First Team infielder...Named PAC Player of the Week (3/19) batted .536 (15-28) with 10 runs scored, three doubles, two triples, and 15 RBIs as the Crusaders started the season 5-3.

Zach compares himself to David Eckstein. He says he may not have the tools other players have, but he always hustles. Sometimes to a fault, as even after games, he will work out, sometimes to excess, causing him to fatigue. The Mets will be using him around the field, from 3rd, to 1st and the OF. He has also played 2nd in his HS and college career.

7. Jose Jimenez (20) R/R (R Kingsport .309/.379/.521/.900, 51 games, 58 for 188, 32 runs, 17 2b, 3b, 7 HR, 41 RBI, 17/43 BB/K)

Jimenez was originally signed by the Brewers, and played for their Arizona League team in 2005 (equal to the GCL), and did very well, hitting .299/.361/.439/.800 as an 18 year old. For some inexplicable reason, the Brewers let him go at the end of the 05 season, and the Mets picked him up, sending him to the DSL for the 06 season, where he hit .309/.437/.455. A return stateside in 07, to the rookie level Appy League proved to be equally fruitful for the now 20 year old, as he set a career high in slugging percentage.

Look for Jimenez to open the 2008 season in Savannah, manning the corner infield positions along with ...

8. Nick Giarraputo (19) R/R (R Kingsport .274/.298/.365/.663, 66 games, 72 for 263, 27 runs, 24 2b, 34 RBI, 9/44 BB/K)

The Mets drafted Giarraputo in the 12th round of the 2006 draft out of Simi Valley high school in California, and sent him to the GCL where he hit .215/.270/.254/.524 in 181 ABs. He produced 7 2b, 11 RBI, and 13 walks in 47 games.

2007 was spent playing both first and third in the rookie level Appy League, where Giarraputo hit .274/.298/.365/.663, producing 24 2b, 34 RBI, and 9 walks in 66 games.

As mentioned above, Giarraputo should open 2007 as part of a quintuplet of infielders which will be among the youngest in the history of the South Atlantic League.

9. Stefan Welch (19) L/R (R GCL .288/.346/.353/.699, 36 games, 40 for 139, 16 runs, 9 2b, 12 RBI, 11/22 BB/K)

The Met signed Welch out of Australia in July of 2006, and he made his debut a year later for the rookie level GCL Mets, where he hit .288/.346/.353/.699, with a good 0.50 BB/K ratio.

10. Joshua Thole (21) L/R (A Savannah .267/.372/.311/.683, 104 for 389, 46 runs, 17 2b, 36 RBI, 61/57 BB/K)

The Mets selected Thole in the 13th round of the 2005 draft, and sent him to the GCL Mets, where he hit .269/.406/.337/.743 in 35 gaames, collecting 4 XBH in 104 ABs while putting up a 20/11 BB/K ratio. In 2006, he played in the rookie level Appy League, but only in 35 games, hitting .237/.303/.309/.612, with 5 XBH in 97 ABs, and a 7/25 BB/K ratio.

Thole is on pace for a prospect, but it remains to be seen how well he can hit against advanced pitching. He displays an above-average eye, but almost no power, with just a 44 IsoP in 2007. He should open in St. Lucie, primarily as a 1b and C backup (to Lucas Duda and Sean McCraw).