MPH System Audit Part III: Middle Infielders

Middle Infielders

The Mets didn't, as some of us had hoped, significantly address their middle infield situation in the draft, opting to draft college middle infielders with limited upside, instead of high school middle infielders who would take time to develop. In the International Free Agent market, they added Wilmer Flores, who does crack our top 10, and then several other signees who do not (Miguel Tejada and Carlos Perez). With the trade of Jose Castro, and the rapidly approaching irrelevance of Anderson Hernandez, Manny Garcia is the only middle infielder of note who is within 2 years of the major leagues.

1. Emmanuel Garcia (21) L/R (A+ St. Lucie .256/.339/.301/.640 (125 for 488, 65 runs, 12 2b, 5 3b, 31 RBI, 34/47 SBs, 63/103 BB/K, HWL Waikiki .348/.427/.485/.912 (23 for 66, 13 runs, 5 2b, 2 3b, RBI, 8/7 BB/K, 8/9 SBs, Team Canada .375/.545/.500/1.045 (6 for 16, 4 runs, 3b, 5 BBs, 4 Ks, RBI, 2/3 SBs)

Total 2007 Stats: .270/.356/.328/.684, 154 for 570, 82 runs, 17 2b, 8 3b, 33 RBI, 44/59 SBs, 76/114 BB/K

Garcia was signed as an undrafted free agent in 2004, and opened the 2005 season, his first in pro ball, with the GCL Mets, where he excelled, hitting .339/.412/.409 in 45 games, as a 19 year old. In 2006, Garcia opened with Kingsport of the Appy League, putting together a .291/.373/.379 line in 51 games. A late season promotion to Brooklyn slowed him down a bit, as he hit .240/.316/.240 in 13 games, still managing to draw 5 walks versus 13 strikeouts.

On the surface, Garcia's 2007 numbers look rather pedestrian, but digging deeper shows that from June 1st all the way to the end of his stint with Team Canada (in mid November), Garcia tore up the minors. In 403 ABs, he had 120 hits, a .298 average, with a 52/73 BB/K ratio, good for a .378 OBP. Never one to display much power, he managed a .370 SLG during that time, with 13 2b and 8 3b, to go along with a 32/40 success rate in SBs.

Garcia's shown a very good tendency towards patience so far in his minor league career, with a career IsoD of 80, with 116 walks versus 195 strikeouts. While he does not have much power to speak of, he is capable of driving the ball to the opposite field. This year, he was working on adding the ability to the pull the ball and make stronger contact with pitches on the inside corner. This approach should lead to higher doubles and homer numbers as he becomes further familiar with higher level pitching. He is 6'2 but only 180 lbs, and as he fills out some more, he should also get a power boost there, too. However, it is his speed which truly makes Garcia an attractive prospect. He is an excellent base stealer (78.49% career success rate, 72.34 last season), and should only get better as he better learns how to read pitchers. A significant flaw in Garcia's game remains his defense (36 errors last year split between shortstop and second base). Prior to this season, he had been primarily a shortstop, but this season was spent on both sides of the second base bag. However, his defensive shortcomings followed him to second base, which is where he likely is going to stick, if he makes it to the majors.

ETA. mid-2010. Garcia does not need to develop significant power to be a steady second baseman in the major leagues (just look at Luis Castillo), but he does need to get much better with the glove, ASAP. His speed and ability to hit for a decent average, combined with an above average eye at the plate will serve him well. However, at this point, with his defense being such a question mark, we cannot predict him to become a starter at the major league level. He is likely to be about 2 1/2 years away from a permanent spot in the majors, beit as a starter or a bench player. He spent the entire season in St. Lucie in 2007 when he was expected to be in Savannah, which should set the stage for him to start the upcoming year in Binghamton. We're adding in a half year just in case, so he should be ready sometime in mid 2010.

2. Hector Pellot (20) R/R (A Savannah .274/.344/.381/.725, 118 for 431, 52 runs, 19 2b, 3 3b, 7 HR, 34 RBI, 37/102 BB/K, 33/50 SBs, A+ St. Lucie .304/.407/.522/.929, 7 for 23, 3 runs, 3b, HR, 3 RBI, 4/3 BB/K, 2/3 SBs, HWL Waikiki .275/.328/.367/.695, 30 for 109, 10 runs, 2b, 3 HR, 12 RBI, 8/29 BB/K, 4/6 SBs)

Total 2007 Stats: .275/.344/.384/.728, 155 for 563, 65 runs, 20 2b, 4 3b, 11 HR, 49 RBI, 39/59 SBs, 49/134 BB/K

The Mets drafted Pellot in the 4th round of the 2005 draft out of Puerto Rico. In 2006, Pellot played for Hagerstown of the South Atlantic League, and put together a complete disaster, batting .189/.292/.259/.551. A repeat of the level in 2007, this time in Savannah, produced sharply better results, a .274/.344/.381/.725 line. The strikeouts remain an issue for Pellot, as does the lack of any appreciable power. Pellot should open the 2008 season in St. Lucie, where he ended the 07 season.

As mentioned above, Pellot made significant strides at the plate last season, shortening up his swing, leading to much greater contact. Though he still strikes out too often, he did bring his average up 85 points from 2006, showing that his pitch recognition improved, which allowed him to work deeper into counts. Pellot's good natural speed came to the forefront last year, as his 52 point increase in IsoD allowed him to attempt 53 stolen bases, compared to the 10 attempts in 2006. However, his success rate of just 66% needs to be improved upon as he gets closer to the major league level. Due to the fact that this was the first season he could really attempt to steal bases (due to his improved numbers), as he gains more experience on the bases, he should also develop a better idea of when to run and when not to run. Pellot moved from his natural shortstop position to second base after being drafted, and after committing 28 errors in 2006, he cut his error total more then in half, to 12. He is is still learning the fine ins-and-outs of second base but with further experience, should come continued improvement.

ETA. 2011. After putting together an infinitely better 2007, Pellot raised his stock considerably inside the organization. If he can maintain his approach that led to his 07 season, his natural talent should shine through. We would expect Pellot to open 2008 right where he ended 2007, which is back in St. Lucie. However, coming off a strong stint in the Hawaiian Winter League, the Mets may take a chance and push him to Binghamton and see how he responds to an even higher level of competition. Either way, time in Binghamton during 2008 should be expected if he excels in St. Lucie. We'll take a conservative stance with Pellot and say he'll spend 3 more seasons in the minors, before a 2011 debut.

3. Juan Lagares (18) R/R (A Savannah .210/.262/.317, 59 for 281, 26 runs, 12 2b, 6 3b, 2 HR, 16 RBI, 18/64 BB/K, 11/18 SBs)

Juan Mercado, the scout that found Jose Reyes, said in a Dominican newspaper that 16-year-old SS Juan Lagares is better than Reyes at the same age. Lagares was signed by the Mets in 2005 and played for the DSL team in 2006, getting into 57 games and hitting .255/.339/.412.

Lagares will most likely (insert broken record) be moved to second base sometime soon, and we hope he makes his stateside debut this year. If he does, it will most likely be as an 18 year old in the Gulf Coast League.

ETA. late-2012. We obviously underestimated the over-aggressive nature of the Mets when it comes to pushing certain prospects. Lagares opened in the full season Sally League, and struggled mightily, barely managing to stay above the Mendoza line. His defense also proved to be very raw, as evidenced by his staggering 40 errors in just 83 games played. A repeat at the age of 19 is certainly not out of the question, but keeping in mind the above-mentioned over-aggressiveness, it wouldn't be shocking to see Lagares in the FSL. Lagares and Veloz were very close in the decision between 3 and 4, but Lagares got the slight nod due to being younger and playing a full season at A ball.

4. Greg Veloz (19) S/R (A Savannah .171/.243/.235/.478, 40 for 234, 20 runs, 7 2b, 3b, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 23/73 BB/K, 15/19 SBs, R Kingsport .271/.344/.450/.793, 70 for 258, 43 runs, 13 2b, 9 3b, 5 HR, 28 RBI, 26/62 BB/K, 18/25 SBs)

Total 2007 Stats: .224/.296/.348/.644, 110 for 492, 63 runs, 20 2b, 10 3b, 7 HR, 42 RBI, 49/135 BB/K, 33/44 SBs)

Veloz was signed out of the Dominican Republic and assigned to the DSL Mets. He was one of 2005's top 10 International prospects. In 2006, Veloz hit .262 for the DSL team with an OBP of .366. He is expected to come stateside in 2007. The Mets named Veloz as the winner of the 2006 Sterling Award as the best player with the DSL team. Veloz will most likely start 2007 with the Gulf Coast League Mets, although like Juan Lagares above, he could open in Kingsport or Brooklyn.

ETA. late-2012. Veloz also made the leap from the DSL to the Sally League in 2007, and if possible to fathom, had a worse debut in that league then Lagares, struggling to an OPS under .500. He, however, "earned" a respite, and a demotion to the Appy League, where he performed much better, OPSing close to .800. Veloz also struggled with his defense, but not to the extreme of Lagares, committing 32 errors in 132 games split between the two leagues. While his defense isn't great, he did flash his nice tools with the bat in the power and speed department, hitting 20 doubles, 10 triples, and 7 hr, as well as stealing 33 bases. He could be considered a better prospect than Lagares at this point, but it is close enough to give the younger player in Lagares the benefit of the doubt, especially considering he spent the full season at A ball.

5. Ruben Tejada (18) R/R (R VSL .364/.466/.479/.946, 44 for 121, 32 runs, 5 2b, 3 HR, 25 RBI, 19/19 BB/K, 16/21 SBs, R GCL .283/.401/.367/.768, 34 for 120, 13 runs, 4 2b, 3 3b, 16 RBI, 19/16 BB/K, 2/3 SBs)

Total 2007 Stats: .324/.434/.423/.857, 78 for 241, 45 runs, 9 2b, 3 3b, 3 HR, 41 RBI, 38/35 BB/K, 18/24 SBs)

The Mets signed Tejada out of Panama in the summer of 2006, and he began the 07 season in the Venezuelan Summer League, but performed at such a high level that the Mets secured a visa for him and brought him stateside, assigning him to the rookie level Gulf Coast League, where his power faltered, as did his average and SBs, but his excellent plate discipline continued. We know and love the Mets, so Tejada should be competiting (or even outright be placed at) for a job in the Savannah infield, as an 18 year old.

The patience exhibited by Tejada is, needless to say, extremely rare in someone so young, especially considering his 1:1 BB/K ratio in the GCL, where he was a year younger then the high school draftees, and at least 4 years younger then any college draftees in that league. He knows how to work the strike zone in his favor and extend at-bats, which allow him to maintain both a high batting average and high on-base percentage. That, combined with his contact-orientated swing serve to give him a very nice base to build his offensive game off of. Perhaps even more compelling then the discipline is his stunningly low strikeout ratio. He also has good natural speed, legging out 3 triples in his 120 AB stint in the GCL, as well as stealing 18 bases in 24 attempts. The one true knock on his game, as with many other young shortstops, is his defense. His quickness gives him good range, but he struggles with fielding balls cleanly and making consistent accurate throws. He committed 21 errors in combined games 65 games played last season, but he definitely has the range to play shortstop, and with hard work, he should become a good defender in time.

It is way too early to put any solid numbers on Tejada, as far as ceiling and whatnot, however, so far in his brief (very brief) pro career, he's shown the ability to draw a very healthy amount of walks (38 in 241 ABs), not strike out (35 in 241 ABs), and to hit for a very high average (.324). It remains to be seen exactly how many, or which of these skills translates to the upper levels of the system, but so far, there is plenty to get excited about. As mentioned above, we know and love the Mets, so Tejada should be competiting (or even outright be placed at) for a job in the Savannah infield, as an 18 year old. To expect him to not struggle would be foolish, so we'll say he spends the next 2 seasons in Savannah, followed by a season at each level above, putting his expected debut at the start of the 2013 season.

6. Wilmer Flores (16) R/R (-R Liga Paralela .257/.280/.368/.648, 37 for 144, 12 runs, 13 2b, HR, 15 RBI, 5/15 BB/K, 1/3 SBs)

Flores was one of the Big 3 to be signed out of the Latin American market this year, and he made his "debut" with the Liga Paralela Mets (a minor league version of the Venezuelan Summer League), putting up decent numbers, considering even in this league, he was between 2 and 4 years younger then most of his competition. We would expect Flores to open the 2008 season with the VSL proper, and he could, if he excels, follow in Ruben Tejada's footsteps. Keep in mind that the VSL opens a month prior to the GCL, so it's likely the Mets would like Flores to "open" in the GCL, but also want to get him as many competitive ABs as possible, which would dictate him opening in the VSL to get an extra 100 or so ABs. Flores was a highly regarded IFA signing, and seems to have as high a ceiling as anyone on this list.

7. Anderson Hernandez (25), S/R (AAA New Orleans .301/.339/.397/.736, 167 for 554, 84 runs, 28 2b, 5 3b, 5 HR, 42 RBI, 31/82 BB/K, 16/25 SBs, MLB New York Mets .333/.333/.333/.667, 1 for 3, run, K, DWL Licey .179/.205/.214/.419, 21 for 117, 9 runs, 4 2b, 11 RBI, 5/6 SBs, 4/23 BB/K)

Total 2007 Stats: .280/.315/.365/.681, 188 for 671, 93 runs, 32 2b, 5 3b, 5 HR, 53 RBI, 21/31 SBs, 35/105 BB/K

Anderson Hernandez was signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2001 by the Tigers, and assigned to the Gulf Coast League, where he hit .264/.303/.389 in 55 games. The next season, Ahern was jumped 3 levels to the Florida State League, where he naturally struggled, hitting .259/.310/.339. He spent the next two seasons in the Florida State League, and after opening 2004 by hitting .295/.326/.377, Detroit bumped him to the Eastern League, where he hit .274/.326/.376. During the 2004 offseason, Omar Minaya took over as GM of the Mets, and traded backup catcher Vance Wilson to the Tigers for Hernandez.

Ahern, previously known as an all glove, no bat shortstop, put together a career 2005, hitting .326/.360/.462 in Binghamton, before earning a callup to Norfolk, where he hit .303/.354/.379. 2006 didn't get off to the start Ahern was looking for, as 22 games into his first starting job on the major league level, he suffered a back injury after making a stunning highlight reel catch. Hernandez went on the DL, and when he returned, the bat didn't, as he struggled for most of the season in Norfolk.

Hernandez struggled through the early portion of the 07 season, but from May 6th to Sept 2nd, he hit .330/.367/.433/.801, covering 427 ABs. However, with Luis Castillo here for the next 4 years, Hernandez, and Ruben Gotay for that matter, now serve no purpose outside of middle infield backup. We would expect Hernandez to, once more, spend the season in New Orleans, however, this is his last option year, so a trade is not out of the realm of possibility.

8. Matthew Bouchard (21) R/R (Big East Georgetown .329/.378/.475/.853, 72 for 219, 33 runs, 12 2b, 3b, 6 HR, 41 RBI, 19/28 BB/K, 16/22 SBs, A- Brooklyn .267/.336/.356/.692, 60 for 225, 32 runs, 10 2b, 2 3b, 2 HR, 27 RBI, 22/51 BB/K, 8/19 SBs)

Total 2007 Stats: .297/.356/.414/.771, 132 for 444, 22 2b, 3 3b, 8 HR, 68 RBI, 24/41 SBs, 41/79 BB/K

The Mets drafted Bouchard in the 11th round of the 2007 draft out of Georgetown University, where as a junior, he put up a line of .329/.378/.475, 72 for 219, 33 runs, 12 2b, 3b, 6 HR, 41 RBI, 19/28 BB/K, 16/22 SBs. After being drafted, the Mets sent Bouchard to the short A NYPL, where he hit .267/.336/.356.

Bouchard had a very underwhelming rookie season in Brooklyn, OPSing right around .700, and hitting .267. There is not much upside to Bouchard, it's pretty much what you see is what you get. He should bring his average up a tad as he settles in to pro ball, but he isn't expected to be a big power threat. What he can provide is a stable bat who will hit for good contact, extra-base power and a smattering of home run power. Bouchard's struggles versus LHP is an aberration, since he never struggled with them during college, and that led to his low batting average. He shows a keen knowledge of the strike zone and good patience, but still needs improvement against secondary pitches. He should shake off the bumps of his first season and hit for a higher average in the future than the .267 average he posted in 2007. Much of Bouchard's game didn't translate well in his rookie season, and speed was no exception, as he was just 8 of 19 in SB attempts in Brooklyn, after going 16 of 22 at Georgetown. His speed also gives him good range in the field, but he needs to work on throwing consistency and accuracy. He reads balls off the bat well, and sets himself well, but can sometimes suffer from inconsistent throwing
mechanics. He has reasonably good arm strength but his throws had a tendency to sail on him at times. Although he has work to do, Bouchard is a strong defender who should only get better with experience.

ETA. mid-2011. The Mets like Bouchard's game, despite it not translating well to the pro game in his rookie season, and will likely push him to St. Lucie to open the 2008 season. With no pressing need for a shortstop in the organization, he should move a level per year, making his debut in 2011.

9. Jonathan Malo (24) R/R (A+ St. Lucie .255/.322/.377/.698, 59 for 231, 29 runs, 10 2b, 6 HR, 40 RBI, 23/37 BB/K, 2/6 SBs)

The Mets selected Malo in the 40th round of the 2002 draft out of high school, but he chose instead to attend Oklahoma A&M College for a year. The Mets then drafted him in the 48th round of the 2003 draft, as a draft and follow, and he attended Miami-Dade Community College in the 03-04 year. He was placed on the restricted list in 2004 due to work permit issues. In 2005, his permit issues were resolved, and he played for short A Brooklyn, where he hit .231/.392/.369. A return trip to Brooklyn in 2006 producted disasterous results, a .174/.301/.217/.518 line, but the Mets promoted him to A+ St. Lucie anyway, where he hit .239/.330/.365 in 91 games.

In 2007, Malo hit .255/.322/.377 in 78 games for St. Lucie.

10. Micah Schilling (25) L/R (A- Brooklyn .283/.427/.365/.791 69 for 244, 49 runs, 17 2b, HR, 15 RBI, 60/50 BB/K, 13/20 SBs)

Schilling was drafted by the Indians in the 1st round of the 2002 draft, and spent 5 years in their system, rising as high as A+ ball. The Mets picked him up prior to the 2007 season, and sent him to A- Brooklyn, where he put up decent numbers. Not much upside here, though.