MPH System Audit Part VIa: Relief Pitchers 1-8

As with the SPs, check below for 9-15.

Relievers

1. Joe Smith (23) R/R (AAA New Orleans 0-0, 2.00 era, 8 G, 9 IP, 7 H, 4/5 BB/K, 1.22 WHIP, MLB New York 3-2, 3.45 era, 54 G, 44.1 IP, 48 H, 21/45 BB/K, 1.56 WHIP)

Total 2007 Stats: 3-2, 3.32 era, 66 G, 57 IP, 58 H, 27/54 BB/K, 1.49 WHIP

Smith was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2006 draft out of Wright State, as one of the top college closers available. He put up 13 saves in 31 appearances, with a 0.98 era in 55 innings pitched. After drafting Smith, the Mets sent him to low A Brooklyn, where he dominated using a low 90s sinker (which hits 94), and an outstanding slider - both offered from a sidearm delivery. After 20 innings in Brooklyn, Smith joined AA Binghamton, bolstering the bullpen for their ill-fated playoff run. Smith served as one of Henry Owens' setup men, and struggled (naturally, having jumped over 3 levels).

Smith's control can falter at times and like most sidearmers, he has real problems with the opposite side, as Double-A lefties went 10-for-20 against him.

Strengths: Smith is unique because he throws much harder than typical sidearmers, and his 89-91 mph fastball has sinking, fading action. It tops out at 94. He stays on top of an 81-83 mph, two-plane slider that destroys righthanders. They hit just .104 against him in pro ball.

Weaknesses: The key to Smith reaching his ceiling is his changeup. He never needed it in college, but he does in pro ball to keep advanced lefthanders honest. They went 10-for-20 (.500) against him in his brief Double-A stint.

In 2007, Smith ran into a wall at around the 40 inning mark, which was unexpected, but not unplanned for by the Mets brass. It was unexpected because the year prior, split over 3 levels, Smith had pitched 87.2 innings. Either way, Smith should open back in the majors during his 2nd full professional season, but that may hinge on Duaner Sanchez' health.

2. Brant Rustich (22) R/R (Pac 10 UCLA 3-2, 6.67 era, 20 G, GS, 29.2 IP, 31 H, 20/28 BB/K, 1.72 WHIP, R Kingsport 1-0, 0.87 era, 5 G, 2 GS, 10.1 IP, 6 H, 1/10 BB/K, .68 WHIP, A- Brooklyn 2-0, 1.62 era, 12 G, 16.2 IP, 2 SVs, 7 H, 3/16 BB/K, .60 WHIP, HWL Waikiki 3-1, 5.82 era, 12 G, 17 IP, SV, 19 H, 11/17 BB/K, 1.76 WHIP)

Total 2007 Stats: 9-3, 4.52 era, 49 G, 5 GS, 73.2 IP, 63 H, 35/71 BB/K, 1.33 WHIP

The Mets took Rustich in the 2nd round of the 2007 draft, 93rd overall, out of UCLA, where as a senior, he went 3-2, 6.67 in 20 games, over 29.2 innings. A finger injury (more specifically, recovery from finger surgery in 2006) contributed to the poor season, and also contributed to his dropping stock. Expected to go somewhere in the first round proper, Rustich fell into the Mets' laps at 93, where they scooped him up. After signing, Rustich was sent to Kingsport, and then Brooklyn, where he totalled 27 innings over 17 games, putting up a 1.33 era, with a .63 WHIP.

Rustich played winterball in Hawaii, where he struggled due to poor mound conditions, putting up a 5.82 era in 17 innings.

Here is a pre-draft scouting report, which will be followed by a post-season scouting report.

Fastball: Rustich features a fastball that sits in the 93-94 mph range.
Slider: Rustich's slider is a plus pitch at times.
Changeup: Rustich has thrown a changeup in the past, but didn't throw one in the weekend series against Winthrop.
Split-fingered fastball: He's thrown a split in the past, but didn't in his two outings over the weekend, perhaps scrapping it because of 2006 finger surgery.
Control: The closer commanded both pitches well over the weekend.
Physical Description: Big, imposing presence on the mound.
Medical Update: Rustich pitched in just six games in 2006 before a finger injury forced him to red shirt. He had surgery, but seemed to throw fine in the opening weekend, albeit without the split.
Strengths: Good two-pitch mix, presence for back bullpen.
Weaknesses: He doesn't have the pure power stuff necessarily to be a big league closer and he lacks deception. Some felt he'd have more value as a starter.
Summary: Overall, it was a good opening weekend for Rustich, who answered some questions about his finger. His delivery had improved from the previous year, with a slightly higher arm slot.

Here is how Rustich sees/describes himself:

He throws a 2 and 4 seam fastball, between 92-96, his 2 seamer has great movement on it, and he calls it his best pitch. He has enjoyed success with it when using it against wood bats. His second best pitch is his slider, which ranges between 85 and 89. He calls it his out pitch. His changeup has been called a splitter, due to the down break on it, which is comparable (as is Kunz') to Gagne's change. Rustich feels he needs to work on his fastball command, and also work on his change. He would most compare himself, however, to Jonathan Papelbon.

Repertoire: Fastball, Slider, Changeup:

Rustich throws two different fastballs, a 4 seamer which sits 94-97, and a 2 seamer at the same velocity. His sinker dives in on righties hands and away from lefties. Much of his success is predicated on his ability to control his 4 seamer early in counts. Besides his two fastballs, Rustich also features a big, hard-breaking slider which he throws in the 86-89 range. This pitch is his goto pitch when he wants a strikeout. In addition to the slider, he throws a 84-88 changeup which acts like a splitter due to it's terrific late movement. Naturally, with Rustich's movement and velocity, he doesn't nibble, he attacks hitters. He prefers to work quickly and deliberately by forcing hitters to swing at his pitch. There is still work to be done with his fastball location, but he showed strong overall command during his rookie season.

ETA. late-2008(as a reliever), 2011(as a starter)The Mets will be converting Rustich into a starter during the 2008 season, and he is expected to open the year with St. Lucie at the front end of their rotation. Due to this, Rustich is expected to develop a curveball, to offset his other hard pitches, and develop a slower pitch. Despite this, we feel Rustich's future at the major league level is in the bullpen, as an elite setup man and future closer. After a successful summer in Kingsport and Brooklyn, he will start the new season in St. Lucie at the least, but should enter camp with a shot at making the Binghamton roster outright. We would expect 3 more seasons in the minors if he is starting, and 1 if he is relieving, so his MLB ready date could either be 2009 or 2011.

3. Eddie Kunz (21) R/R (Pac10 Oregon 3-1, 2.91 era, 31 G, 46.1 IP, 12 SVs, 31 H, 18/37 BB/K, 1.06 WHIP, A- Brooklyn 0-1, 5.40 era, 15 G, 15 IP, 6 SVs, 9 H, 10/12 BB/K, 1.27 WHIP, AFL Scottsdale 0-1, 10.13 era, 9 G, 10.2 IP, 15 H, 8/11 BB/K, 2.16 WHIP)

Total 2007 Stats: 3-3, 4.32 era, 58 G, 75 IP, 56 H, 38/63 BB/K, 1.25 WHIP

The Mets selected Kunz with their first overall pick in the 2007 draft, in the supplemental first round, number 42 overall, out of Oregon State, where he was 3-1 with a 2.91 era in 46.1 innings. After signing, Kunz was sent to Brooklyn, where he struggled to a 5.40 era in 15 innings, having some command issues. A postseason trip to Arizona did nothing to allieviate those issues, as he struggled to a 10.13 era and 8 walks in 10.2 innings.

Here are several pre-draft scouting reports, which will be followed by a post-season scouting report.

He has average command and throws from a three-quarters arm slot out of the bullpen.
He lacks a true weapon against good left-handed batters but his sinker will induce a lot of ground balls and chew up bats in pro ball."

He has a solid fastball that reaches the mid 90s, with some nice movement. Has a bit of a slider, but nothing else. Good control though, and gets lot of ground balls.

Fastball: Kunz threw a heavy fastball that ran up to 94 mph. He keeps his fastball down in the zone, and it has some above-average sink to it.
Slider: His slider sits in the 80-82 mph range. It's a true slider, with a short, late break and hard bite.
Control: Kunz commanded his fastball and slider well over the weekend, particularly in his second outing, on Sunday.
Poise: Above average. He came into both situations and threw strikes.
Physical Description: Big right-hander who throws from three-quarters arm slot.
Medical Update: Healthy.
Strengths: Command and poise. Kunz comes into games and pounds his heavy fastball to the bottom of the strike zone. He gets a lot of ground balls and his stuff will break bats at the pro level.
Weaknesses: He doesn't have a third pitch to attack left-handed hitters.
Summary: Kunz's package of stuff is well-suited to the back of a bullpen, but the lack of the third pitch may keep him from closing as a pro. His future may be as a setup man who can pound his sinker-slider in on right-handed hitters.

He probably doesn't fit there, but his big-time fastball will fit in the Mets
bullpen by next season. Solid, unspectacular pick.

Kunz has plus stuff and closer-quality velocity. He's a behemoth at 6-foot-5, 250 pounds
and will have to watch his body and his weight as a pro. His loose arm and
low arm angle produce 94-96 mph fastballs, and some scouts think a
cleaner body and more consistent mechanics would give him even more velocity.
Kunz throws a changeup to lefthanders that's effective, and at times his
change is ahead of his flat slider.

And finally, here is a scouting report from Kunz himself:

Fstball sits around 95, 96 MPH. Slider sits around low to mid 80s. Changeup is probably around mid to upper 70s. He likes his changeup as his second pitch, and throws a hard sinking fastball. Slider is in development. He sees himself as an Eric Gagne type, similiar sink on his ball, and similiar body type.

Repertoire: Fastball, Slider, Changeup

Kunz primarily throws a sinker, which sits in the mid 90s, and is a very hard, very heavy ball. His groundball rates are extraordinairly high due to his over-reliance on this pitch (a otherworldly ridiculous 8.33 go/ao ratio in Brooklyn, and a still insane 3 in the AFL). As for his secondary pitches, Kunz has greater trust in his changeup than he does his slider. His changeup gets good natural downward movement in the 76-79 range, while his slider is a still developing pitch he throws in the 83-87 range. With his repertoire, Kunz is not afraid to go right after hitters. He did walk 18 in 25.2 innings in his pro debut between Brooklyn and the AFL, but he didn't walk nearly that many during his college season. He did not give up much in the way of contact (.190 OPAVG in Brooklyn), but walks did come back to bite him last season.

ETA. mid-late 2009. Kunz' murky performance vs. LHB in 2007 clouds his projection, with regards to the question of whether he will be the be the Mets closer of the future or a reliable setup man. We would expect Kunz to open the 2008 season in St. Lucie, but he very well could jump all the way to Binghamton. Either way, we wouldn't anticipate Kunz spending a long time in the minors, and would say at the latest, he will make his MLB debut sometime during the 2009 season.

4. Stephen Clyne (23) S/R (ACC Clemson 5-2, 2.58 era, 31 G, 45.1 IP, 3 SVs, 44 H, 18/48 BB/K, 1.37 WHIP, A- Brooklyn 2-2, 2.76 era, 22 G, 29.1 IP, 8 SVs, 24 H, 20/33 BB/K, 1.50 WHIP)

Total 2007 Stats: 7-4, 2.65 era, 53 G, 74.2 IP, 68 H, 38/81 BB/K, 1.42 WHIP

The Mets picked Clyne with their 3rd round pick, number 123 overall, out of Clemson University, where as a senior, he went 5-2 with a 2.58 era in 45.1 innings. After signing, he was sent to Brooklyn, where he enjoyed success, pitching to a 2.76 era in 29.1 innings.

Repertoire: Fastball, Slider, Curveball, Changeup

Like Kunz, Clyne's primary pitch is a 2 seam fastball, which he throws in the 91-93 range, but he can dial it up to 94-95 when needed. It is more effective against righties, since he can throw it in on their hands, but it can also be an effective weapon versus lefties. He can get his fair share of Ks with it, but uses it primarily as a groundball generator. In addition to his sinker, he also features both a slider and curve, as well as a change. He uses his slider more often to righties, typically throwing it at 78-81 MPH, and more often then not, throws it down and away. His 73-76 curveball has much slower and larger break. He throws it with much less frequency than his slider and uses it primarily against lefties, aiming it down and in. He only added the change this year, and it made rapid strides towards being a reliable pitch for him. He throws it 76-79, with good downward movement similar to his sinker, making the pitch very deceptive to hitters on both sides of the plate. Like the other relievers taken by the Mets in the 2007 draft, Clyne is a groundball specialist. He has very good velocity and does exert too much effort to reach it.

ETA. late-2009. Clyne figures to have a floor as a righty specialist, but with his improving changeup, and if he can execute his slider against left-handers, he there is a good chance he could become a reliable late-inning link to the closer. At the highest end of his projection, he could become an eighth inning setup man. We would figure Clyne will open the 2008 season in St. Lucie, and could end the season in Binghamton if he excels. At any rate, we would expect Clyne to spend almost 2 full seasons in the minors, before making the leap to the majors sometime late in 2009.

5. Carlos Muniz (26) R/R (AA Binghamton 2-4, 2.45 era, 44 G, 58.2 IP, 23 SVs, 43 H, 17/62 BB/K, 1.02 WHIP, AAA New Orleans 0-1, 1.86 era, 6 G, 9.2 IP, 6 H, 2/8 BB/K, .83 WHIP, MLB New York 7.71 era, 2 G, 2.1 IP, H, 2/2 BB/K, AFL Scottsdale 0-1, 3.27 era, 8 G, 11 IP, 13 H, 5/9 BB/K, 1.64 WHIP)

Total 2007 Stats: 2-6, 2.50 era, 58 G, 79.1 IP, 62 H, 24/79 BB/K, 1.08 WHIP

Muniz was drafted in the 13th round of the 2003 draft out of Long Beach University, where as a senior, he was 0-2 with a 3.14 era in 26 games, converting 11 saves. He's made a slow trek through the farm system, and last season was his best, however, it came as a 25 year old in the Florida State League. In 2007, he'll need to go through Binghamton and end up in New Orleans, to not fall into the Henry Owens category

And he did just that, ending the season in the major leagues (though for only 2.1 innings over 2 appearances). He should open 2008 back in New Orleans, and be one of the first up in case of a need in the bullpen.

Repertoire: Fastball, Slider, Changeup

As we saw in his brief stint in the majors, Muniz is not an overpowering pitcher, using his fastball that sits at 88-91 (2 and 4 seam) to great effectiveness, pounding the zone with them and his slider. Muniz, despite not having the best stuff, is fearless, going right after hitters, throwing strikes and limiting his walks. His slider sits 84-86, and he throws it on the outside corner to righties, and backdoors it to lefties. The slider underwent a large amount of development this season and he is now able to spot it on multiple levels of the strike zone, changing hitters eye-levels and giving it a bit more deception. His change also developed this year, and he throws this pitch in the 81-83 range.

Muniz doesn't profile as a setup man in the majors, due to his stuff, but there is no reason to believe he couldn't make it as a 6th or 7th inning arm. Muniz should open the 2008 season in New Orleans, and he will be atop the list of relievers to get a call up when the need is there.

6. German Marte (22) R/R (A+ St. Lucie 5-3, 3.50 era, 37 G, 63.2 IP, 5 SVs, 59 H, 15/65 BB/K, 1.16 WHIP)

Marte was signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2002. He posted a 1.56 ERA for the 2003 DSL team, with 70 Ks in 75 IP, before coming stateside in 2004, where he got into 9 games, including 6 starts, for Kingsport, posting a 1-0 record with a 5.13 era. He also got into 4 games (2 starts) for the Gulf Coast League team, putting up a 1-0, 2.40 line in 15 innings. 2005 was split between Kingsport and Brooklyn, and 2006 between Hagerstown and Brooklyn.

I'd expect Marte to open 2007 in St. Lucie as a 22 year old.

Repertoire: Fastball, Slider, Split-Changeup. (report from post 2006 season)

Marte features a fastball which sat 92-93 prior to 2006, but inexplicably dropped into the 86-87 range for 2006. this alarmed many scouts, as this is barely batting practice speed. He compliments his fastball with a average to slightly below average slider, and a developing changeup, which acts more as a split-change. He has a very violent delivery and it could be one of the reasons why he was throwing his fastball slower after four seasons taking its toll on him.

ETA. 2010. Marte regained the lost velocity during the 2007 season, as evidenced by his more then a K/inning. This solidifies his projection as a setup man in the majors. He is still roughly 2 years away from the majors, and should open 2008 in Binghamton.

7. Will Morgan (22) R/R (Lewis & Clark State 5-1, 1.46 era, 23 G, GS, 67.2 IP, 41 H, 17 BBs, 78 Ks, .86 WHIP, A- Brooklyn 3-0, 2.77 era, 24 G, 39 IP, 2 SVs, 23 H, 11/42 BB/K)

Total 2007 Stats: 8-1, 1.94 era, 47 G, GS, 106.2 IP, 64 H, 28/120 BB/K, .86 WHIP

The Mets drafted Morgan in the 12th round of the 2007 draft, 393rd overall, out of Lewis & Clark State, where as a junior, he excelled, putting up a 1.46 era in 67.2 innings, covering 23 games. After signing with the Mets, he was sent to Brooklyn where he excelled, pitching to a 2.77 era in 24 games, spanning 39 innings.

ETA. late-2009. Morgan features a low 90s fastball, a good slider, and a developing changeup. He calls his slider his best pitch, followed by his fastball, then his change. We would expect Morgan to open 2008 in St. Lucie, with a possible promotion to Binghamton during the season.

8. Dan McDonald (21) L/R (Big East Seton Hall 2-2, 3.37 era, 26 G, 34.2 IP, 6 SVs, 23 H, 19/39 BB/K, A- Brooklyn 1-2, 3.16 era, 20 G, 25.2 IP, 3 SVs, 10 H, 20/30 BB/K, 1.17 WHIP)\

Total 2007 Stats: 3-4, 3.28 era, 46 G, 60.1 IP, 33 H, 39/69 BB/K, 1.19 WHIP

ETA. late-2009. The Mets drafted McDonald in the 8th round of the 2007 draft, 273rd overall, out of Seton Hall, where he went 2-2 with a 3.37 era in 34.2 innings. After signing, he was also sent to Brooklyn, where he went 1-2 with a 3.16 era in 25.2 innings. He only allowed 10 hits, but he walked 20, way too many in 25.2 innings. We would expect Morgan to open 2008 in St. Lucie, with a possible promotion to Binghamton during the season.

Here is how McDonald sees/describes himself:

He throws a 2 and 4 seamer, along with a slider and change. His 4 seamer can reach 94, and it is his primary pitch. He feels he needs to work on his slider, and get better command on all 3 pitches. Due to his small stature, he compares himself to Pedro Martinez.