Prospect Focus: Emmanuel Garcia

Splits courtesy www.minorleaguesplits.com

Emmanuel Garcia was signed as an undrafted FA in 2004 out of Canada, and made his pro debut the next season in the rookie level Gulf Coast League, where he hit .339/.412/.409/.821 (63 for 186, 43 runs, 7 2b, 2 HR, 30 RBI, 21/36 BB/K, 17/18 SBs). Garcia's BB/K ratio was .5833, while his K rate was .194. Unfortunatley, I do not have his L/R splits from 2005.

In 2006, Garcia spent the bulk of the season with the Kingsport Mets of the rookie Appy League, where he hit .277/.362/.366/.728 (56 for 202, 35 runs, 5 2b, 2 3b, 3 HR, 25 RBI, 27/41 BB/K, 19/25 SBs). Overall, his BB/K ratio was .6585, a good improvement from the GCL, while his K rate decreased slightly to .203. He hit markedly better vs RHP (44 for 144, 5 2b, 2 3b, 2 HR, 23/26 BB/K, .306/.401/.431/.832) then LHP (12 for 58, 4/15 BB/K, .207/.258/.207/.465). His BB/K was .8846 vs RHP and only .2667 vs LHP, while his K rate was .181 vs RHP and a too high .257 vs LHP. Garcia got a brief 50 AB callup to the Brooklyn Cyclones of the low A NY Penn League, but the sample sizes in the splits are too small to draw any conclusions. He hit .240/.316/.240/.556 in 50 ABs (12 for 50, 5/13 BB/K).

In 2007, Garcia was promoted, as a 21 year old, to the St. Lucie Mets in the high A Florida State League, where he predictably struggled to hit for power or a particularly high average. He hit .257/.336/.300/.636 (130 for 506, 65 runs, 12 2b, 5 3b, 31 RBI, 62/108 BB/K), for a .5741 BB/K ratio, and a .213 K rate. What's extremely impressive about him is, in 2006 between Kingsport (a ROOKIE league) and Brooklyn (short season A ball), he struck out at a .211 rate (virtually no change). So the jump all the way to high A did not result in a higher strikeout rate. Also, this season, his BB/K ratio was 0.5741 (dividing BBs by Ks), while last year, it was 0.5926, so he did not worsen significantly there, either. Again, very impressive jumping 2 leagues the way he did.

His splits in St. Lucie as far as lefty/righty show that he hit marginally better versus LHP. He hit .271/.342/.321/.663 vs LHP, with 7 2b in 140 ABs, and a 15/31 BB/K ratio (0.4839), while hitting .251/.334/.292/.626 vs RHP, with 5 2b and 5 3b in 366 ABs, and a 47/77 BB/K ratio (0.6104). However, from June 1st to August 31st, he hit .285/.361/.342/.703. As you can see, the only thing "holding him back" is a decided lack of power. He did not hit 1 homer in 488 ABs at St. Lucie.While I do not have his splits during his hot streak, you can probably add 20-30 points to each category and be fairly safe, as a guesstimate.

THE FUTURE: Garcia, knowing the Mets, will be in Binghamton next season. However, I would give him 6 weeks in St. Lucie, let him really tear it apart, then promote him. It wouldn't hurt his plate discipline, either, to slow down his trek through the system. Garcia's ceiling is probably comparable to a Luis Castillo type, someone who won't hit for a whole lot (if any) power, but should hit alot of doubles (which would've been singles) and triples (which should've been doubles), and steal you quite a few bases.

UPDATE 2008: Garcia has spent the entire season in Binghamton (at least the non Olympic portion of it), and as we again predicted, he struggled mightily the first half of the season. Through the first two months of the season, he hit a miserable .217/.312/.251/.564 (39 for 179, 30 runs, 4 2b, 3b, 15 RBI, 9/13 SBs, 24/47 BB/K). His BB/K ratio is .5106, while his K rate had ballooned to .263.

However, after that 2 month adjustment period, Garcia's turned it on. From June 1st to July 27th (the day he left to join Team Canada), Garcia's hit .285/.322/.424/.746 (45 for 158, 18 runs, 8 2b, 3b, 4 HR, 23 RBI, 8/13 SBs, 9/27 BB/K). His BB/K ratio deflated to .3333, but his K rate also dropped markedly, to .171, the lowest of his career. However, the additional power has come at the expense of his plate discipline, as in the first 2 months, his IsoD was 95, and in the time since, his IsoD is 37. It is unknown if he will resume playing in the minor leagues once he returns from Bejing.

As in past seasons, Garcia's L/R splits are skewed to RHP, but this season is it a much closer differential. Garcia is hitting .238/.304/.337/.640 (24 for 101, 14 runs, 3 2b, 2 3b, HR, 11 RBI, 8/24 BB/K, 5/5 SBs) vs LHP, with a .3333 BB/K ratio and .238 K rate. Versus RHP, Garcia's hitting .254/.322/.331/.652 (60 for 236, 34 runs, 9 2b, 3 HR, 27 RBI, 25/50 BB/K, 12/21 SBs), with a .5000 BB/K ratio and .212 K rate.

Overall, Garcia is batting .249/.316/.332/.649 (84 for 337, 48 runs, 12 2b, 2 3b, 4 HR, 38 RBI, 33/74 BB/K, 17/26 SBs), with a .4459 BB/K ratio (the lowest of his career), and a .220 K rate (conversely, the highest of his career). However, as you've seen, much as he did last season, he is turning his season around in the 2nd half.

Garcia's gotten 1106 ABs in his minor league career, with a career .259/.334/.322/.656 line (286 for 1106, 31 2b, 9 3b, 7 HR, 127/239 BB/K), he's hit .237/.306/.291/.597 (76 for 320, 10 2b, 2 3b, HR, 29/76 BB/K) vs LHP, and .267/.346/.335/.681 (210 for 786, 21 2b, 7 3b, 6 HR, 98/163 BB/K) vs RHP.

THE NEW FUTURE: Here's hoping the Mets will allow him to open the 2009 season in Binghamton before pushing him to AAA (whereever it is). With so many high ceiling middle infielders now pushing through the system, Garcia's margin for error is slim to none. He *should* begin back in Binghamton, but knowing the Mets, he'll be in Syracuse (or whereever AAA ends up at).