Reviewing The Pre-Season Top Prospect List

Obviously, I wasn't writing here back in January, but, I'm sure I had some sort of talk with Tejesh to help/hurt a prospect on this list.

So, lets take a look at the MPH Pre-Season Top 10 Prospects.

This is not a new list, just a review of the old one.

1. Fernando Martinez: The obvious choice for #1, and still is the number one prospect in the system. Martinez had another injury plagued season in AA, but still managed to put up a .287/.340/.432 line in 352 AB's. He'll be playing winter ball this season to help makeup for the lost time. No Fall Or Rise In Stock.

2. Brant Rustich: Yeah...well...OK, this list was made in January, and at the time we all thought Rustich was on the fast track as a relief pitcher. It wasn't just MPH that was high on Rustich, Scout ranked him as the 4th best prospect, BA ranked him as the 5th best prospect, and I ranked him as the 3rd best prospect..

Anyways, in spring training it was decided that Rustich would be used as a stater this season. Rustich got off to a predictable slow start in Savannah, pitching to a 5.3 ERA in the first two months of the season, but he really turned it on after that, putting up a 2.86 ERA in the second half. However, it was not all positive, as Rustich went on the disabled list on August 25th with a stress fracture in his right arm. That injury causes him to take a major hit on his prospect status/ranking. Falling Stock.

3. Jon Niese: 3.04 ERA in 22 starts in AA, followed by a 3.40 ERA in AAA. His first MLB start didn't go great, but the kid is 21 years old, and I can't believe some of the reactions to his ONE start. Showed good groundball tendencies in the minors which is plus and now just needs to work on sharpening his pitches. Possible #5 starter next year, while probably looking at a #3 ceiling. Rising Stock:

4. Mike Carp: Coming off a disappointing 2007 season Mike Carp, fully healthy, put up a .299/.403/.471 line in 478 AB's this season. However, that line doesn't show that Carp, through about half of the season, hit for a .362 average. So, in about 2 and a half months Carp's average dropped .63 points, and it would of been more if not for the second wind he could in Mid-August.

Overall a very nice bounce back season from Carp, but, for the future, I just don't see Carp, with the emergence's of Murphy/Evans, fitting in with the big league team, and I think he'll be traded before next August. Rising Stock.

5. Nick Evans: I'll tell you what, I liked Nick Evans coming into this year, but there is no way anyone could have predicted the kind of year he had. During his time in AA he was arguably the best hitter in the Eastern League.. In 296 AB's, Evans had 39 extra base hits, he posted an OPS of .926, all while batting over .300. Rising Stock.

Evans earned himself a promotion to the big league club, and though he looked over matched early, it has become clear that he KILLS left handed pitching. The 22 year old is hitting .344 with a .901 OPS against lefties so far in his big league career. This makes Evans extremely valuable as a possible platoon player next year, or, possibly, a power right handed hitter from the bench.

6. Bobby Parnell: First of all, Happy 24th Birthday to Bobby Parnell - At least you didn't have to spend it rotting in the bullpen for another day. As for his season in the minors as a 23 year old, Parnell posted a 4.30 ERA in AA Binghamton, and earned himself a late season promotion to New Orleans, where he got rocked in 5 games (4 starts). No Fall Or Rise In Stock.

Here's the thing about Parnell. He has the stuff. He's got 2 good pitches, and he has the ability to get tons of groundballs. I'm just waiting for him to put it all together, and so far, I can't say he has. However, he's still a decent prospect, who projects as a back end starter or a set-up (2009??) guy.

7, Nathan Vineyard: Had high hopes for this guy coming out of High School, but suffered a rotator cuff (2 starts into his first pro season) injury that required surgery. A lot of his projection was based on him gaining velocity, and this surgery really hurts him projection wise. Falling Stock.

8. Scott Moviel: Got off to a slow start in Savannah in his first full season, but rebounded nicely after fixing some mechanics, and even earned a late season promotion to St. Lucie. Huge right handed, got a ton of groundballs, still incredibly young. Rising Stock.

9. Eddie Kunz: 27 saves with a 2.79 ERA with Binghamton, more impressive though, his 3.55 GO/FO ratio. Though, he didn't look MLB ready in his short time in the bullpen. Needs to work on his secondary pitches. Amazing to me that the Mets didn't call him back up in September. Stock Rose Then Fell.

10. Francisco Pena: You have to consider this season a success for the 18 year old catcher. His .264 batting average may not be impressive at first look, but considering he hit .210 last season, with just a .263 OBP, this was a major improvement. His 31 XBH this season were almost double the amount that he put up last year (17) in about the same number of at bats. Don't get me wrong, the kid is far from being a top prospect, especially seeing how he struck out 95 times, and walked just 25 times, in 397 AB's, but this season was a step in the right direction. Rising Stock.

This system has gotten remarkably better thanks to 3 picks inside the top 33, but also because of the emergence of prospects such as Daniel Murphy, Wilmer Flores, Dillion Gee, Micheal Antonini, Josh Thole, Meja, Cleto, the list goes on. There is a ton of talent in the lower half of this system to go along with guys who are about ready to contribute, and no, it's not as bad as people make it out to be.

The new top 10 list would look nothing like this. This list needs to be gutted (like the Mets bullpen), and redone. You can expect that sometime in the near future, though it's going to be tough to cut it down to a top 10 list--Believe me, I have a hard time leaving guys out on my top 20 lists.

Tej edit: David and I will probably release a top prospect list sometime soon (and hell, I might talk Charlie into doing one, too).

I want to go back to Mike Carp. I said he probably doesn't have a future with the organization, and though that's true, his one opportunity would be if he destroys AAA in 2009, and Nick Evans continues to crush left handed pitchers. This may (just my speculation after talking it over with Tej), be enough for the Mets to platoon Evans/Carp @ 1B in 2010 with the departure of Carlos Delgado. Just my two cents.

~visit me at Mets Prospectus