Friday, November 14, 2008

My Top 20 Prospect List

Wow, I struggled big time ranking these prospects. It not that they aren't good, because they are, it's just that they are all basically around the same level--prospect wise. For me, this list will probably change 5 times from now until the beginning of next year, but, for fun, I'll post my top 20 list as of now.

NOTE: I included Daniel Murphy (1 AB over) and Nick Evans (service time) on the list, just to see where they would rank

1. Fernando Martinez
Not ready to give Flores the #1 spot yet. Fernando hasn't exactly broken out like I hoped, but he has continued, when healthy, to put up "solid" stats.
2. Wilmer Flores
What can I say? A hitting sensation. Amazing. Lets hope he keeps it up!
3. Daniel Murphy
To me, he looks like a sure thing hitting wise, and that's good enough in my opinion to rank him 3rd.
4. Jon Niese
Some have soured (or just didn't like him to begin with) but I still have faith in him. I feel that if he can develop a harder curveball and develop his cutter a bit more, he can still be a #3 starter with #2 upside.
5. Brad Holt
Electric fastball combined with the fact that he dominated the NYPL jumps him all the way up to #5. It was a good to see him make progress with his breaking pitches as that will basically determine if he's a starter or relief pitcher at the MLB level.
6. Reese Havens
Reese was thought of as a great pick for the Mets at 22 but he just could not stay healthy in his pro debut. I still have high praise for the kid, and here's to hoping he stays healthy in 09.
7. Nick Evans
This is where the flip flopping began... I like Nick Evans, and I think he can be a solid role player for a team, however I'm not sold on the fact of him becoming an everyday player. But, you cannot, and I won't, ignore the fact that he destroyed AA.
8. Bobby Parnell
Yeah, I'm probably overrating him a bit, but he's a personal favorite, and I like to play favorites. The way I see it is that anytime you have a guy who can maintain high velocity late in games, you have to at least give him a chance. I've heard positive reports about his slider out of the AFL.
9. Jenrry Mejia ***
An 18 year old kid (just turned 19 last month) who can already throw 95-96 MPH with an at times plus curveball and changeup has to be in my top 10. Scouts have already said that they expect Mejia to be able to reach the upper 90's into the 100 range when he is fully developed.
10. Mike Carp
Ugh, where do I stand on Carp? He had a pretty darn good season in AA but I didn't like the reports I heard about him. Scouts said that he didn't look good against left handed pitchers and pitchers in general who threw hard. This added with the fact that Carp is slow of foot and a bad defensive 1B, doesn't give me much faith in him.
11. Jefry Marte
Jefry Marte turned 17 years old age this past June. And if there was no Wilmer Flores you better believe all the talk/hype would be around this kid. Playing in the GCL for his pro-debut Marte hit .324/.393/.528/.921. Pretty Fluffing impressive. The kid has HUGE upside offensively. He'll probably start the year in Savannah on the left side of the infield with Flores next season. They'll be an infield to watch.
12. Ike Davis
Getting back to short recaps.. Davis had a putrid start to his pro career but showed positive signs late in the year. He's still got big power potential and the arm/defense to play RF along with 1B.
13. Eddie Kunz
A bad start to his MLB career combined with the fact that he's getting torn apart in the AFL has made me concerned about Kunz. I know I ranked him 13th, but I still have faith in him. However, he really needs to develop his slider and change if he wants to be anything more than a ROOGY.
14. Josh Thole (SLEEPER ALERT)
Thole caught for the entire season for the first time in his pro career, and though he has some work to do on defense, his great patience at the plate has caught more than my eye. A high average/high OBP catcher should not be overlooked.
15. Dillon Gee
What did I think of Gee coming into this year? Not much, a product of the NYPL, who would get exposed at the higher levels. But Gee posted a 3.25 ERA in St. Lucie and a 1.33 ERA in 4 starts in Binghamton and he's starting to make me believe. Also helping, is the fact that his fastball velocity (91-93) is higher than I originally thought. Still, lucky to be a 4th starter in the majors.
16. Maikel Cleto
Another young, hard throwing, right hander from the lower level of the system. According to the Mets pitching coordinator, Cleto sat 95-96 this year and touched 100 "regularly"
17. Scott Moviel
Huge right hander who really figured things out after struggling early this season. Keep an eye on him.
18. Brant Rustich
Guy who supposivley had one of the best arms in the system coming into this year, switched into a starter, and battled multiple arm injures. A stress fracture in your pitching arms isn't a good thing.
19. Ezequiel Carrera
Not sure what to think of this kid, but a guy with a high OBP + great speed, is a special talent. It was nice to see him hit a couple of homeruns this year.
20. Francisco Pena
Ok, maybe he doesn't belong this low, but I just don't know how to rank him. He's still pretty young, and had a better year this year repeating A ball, but I haven't seen enough out of him to put him above the guys ranked ahead of him.

IN THE DISCUSSION (no particular order):
Nathan Vineyard, Cesar Puello, Micheal Antonini, Dylan Owen, Ruben Tejada, Javier Rodriguez, Greg Veloz.. NOT MATT BOUCHARD.

20 comments:

  1. why did you star jenrry mejia's name?

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  2. Because he's a STAR!

    No, just kidding. He's a guy I feel will reallllllllllllllllllly break out next year. Like jump on top 100 prospect lists and such.

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  3. pretty accurate ranking. the only spot i might change is marte's. i love this kid and would personally put him in front of carp and probably evans.
    like you i'm also getting a bit fed up with kunz. the thinking is that you draft college guys because they're very close to being major league-ready....2009 will be year 3 for kunz as a met, and i'm not even sure if he's AAA-ready.
    lastly, i'm still on the f-mart bandwagon, but this may be the last year i'll be saying that. we've been hearing all of the hype for a while now....this kid has to have a solid season in 2009....enough with the "injury-shortened" seasons, i really need to see this kid put it all together this year to remain a believer.

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  4. one question; i dont know how well you know the other teams systems, but how do you see the mets farm being ranked this year? we were told by all the baseball know-it-alls that we had one of the worst farms in baseball last year...i'm not saying our farm is great, but i have to believe its going to be ranked a little bit higher this year.

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  5. seattle steve11/15/08, 10:28 AM

    Scott Shaw should be on your top suspects list & the Murph & Evans have seen enough time on the major league level that they should not be on the list.

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  6. Rich: I had serious thoughts of moving Marte over Evans/Carp, but in the end I figured there was still too much of a chance Marte wouldn't turn into anything.

    I like him a lot, though.

    Where does the farm system rank? I really couldn't tell you for sure, I would guess around middle of the pact, because I usually spend my free time on the Mets farm system, and not really the other ones around baseball.

    I know that people underrate this system. Omar knows it too, but if you have been reading Omar's quotes lately, there seems to be a lot of interest in the guys in the lower levels Flores/Mejia/Marte/etc. so that's a good sign..

    and about Shaw.. He's kind of where Gee was at for me last year. Great numbers, not great stuff, I have to wait and see if he can repeat at higher levels. But yeah, he prob deserves some discussion.

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  7. Kunz is very underrated on your board. The guy has the best sinker in the organization (including Pelfrey). To me, barring injury, his floor is that of a quality 7th inning pitcher. He had one bad inning and the majors, before that he had a pretty decent year in AA. AFL stats mean nothing. Hopefully, he's working on developing his slider. My top 20 (not counting Murphy):

    1. F-Mart
    2. Flores
    3. Niese
    4. Holt
    5. Evans
    6. Havens
    7. Kunz
    8. Marte
    9. Parnell
    10. Carp
    11. Davis
    12. Mejia
    13. Thole
    14. Rustich
    15. Moviel
    16. Pena
    17. Cleto
    18. Rodriguez
    19. Campbell
    20. Tejada

    5.

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  8. Wow Andy. Eric Campbell? And Javier Rodriguez?

    IMO, neither should sniff the top 35, let alone a top 20.

    PS: I'll be putting my final 2008 list up sometime in the next few days.

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  9. I got to laugh at all your lists.
    There is one name that everyone leaves off in their TOP 20 that will be a future ALL-STAR.

    As the year passes and stats are made and projections talked about, you'll hear his name over and over and say...I should have known and figured it out.

    Moviel is way overrated. Cleto is nothing more than trade bait if anything. I can go on and on, but go see for your own eyes what is MLB projected talent vs writer HYPE.

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  10. I actually really like the upside of both Campbell and Rodrigues. I'd wager both will catapult themselves up the organizational chart next year.

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  11. Rodriguez is 'not' projectible anymore. He can't swing the bat and really can't run down the line. In the OF he may top out at plus 30 yd speed but he isn't all that and we wasted a HUGE $$$ amount on him to select him so high. Oversold by our Puerto Rican Scout 4 sure.

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  12. I've heard some positive reviews, but I have not seen him play. He is still awful young and has only played a short season of professional ball. Give the guy some time before deciding whether or not he is a bust. I agree we overreached drafting him that high, but he still seems to have speed and bat speed. That talent was enough to put him ahead of Veloz, Gee, Antonini, Owen, Carrera, and the like. I just don't see the stock of any of those mentioned rising... Rodrigues's value at least has the potential to turn him into a legitimate prospect.

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  13. anonymous:
    "There is one name that everyone leaves off in their TOP 20 that will be a future ALL-STAR."

    and who might that be...enlighten me, please.

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  14. As the season unfolds and Spring unfolds, you'll hear his name.

    Let's just put it to you this way, He has all the tools and is polished.

    Just watch and see...I'll leave it at that.

    Think sleeper? Really not a sleeper a hidden pick that dropped because of strong committment to college.

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  15. Ok Say it, please..

    He's not even in the notables? I can't even think of anyone else.

    Is it.. Matt Bouchard?

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  16. Well, im assuming your talking about a posotion player what referring to "tools" and the only guy i can really think of would be Alonzo Harris? Maybe 39th round pick in 2007 if not it would probably be Kyle Allen or Robert Carson as a pitcher, just spill the beans "anonymous" or are you bluffing?

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  17. "Let's just put it to you this way, He has all the tools and is polished."

    James Bruno didn't sign, if that's who you're thinking of.

    Other then that...HS picks beyond round 15 from 2007 and 2008:

    2007 17: RHP Brandon Efferson DNS
    2007 25: RHP Cole Abbott
    2007 31: LHP Antonio Peraza DNS
    2007 32: c Juan Centeno
    2007 33: ss Nick Abshire DNS
    2007 37: if Jose Alvarez
    2007 39: 2b Alonzo Harris

    2008 24: RHP Kyle Allen
    2008 29: 2b Michael Giuffre DNS
    2008 39: c/3b Charles Hinojosa
    2008 50: of Kameron Brunty DNS

    Of the ones who were signed, Harris is the only one who fits the criteria laid out by "anonymous". And yes, I'm high on him, he put up some damn good numbers in the GCL at age 19. But he shouldn't be in the top 20. Yet.

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  18. Isn't Harris I can assure you. That young man is RAW as an oyster out of the sand. Lots of upside still, but about as RAW a TALENT as you'll see out there.

    Still wondering.....you're getting hot though.

    Jamie Bruno? Another you got to be kidding. One tool and that only plays in BP.

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  19. Anonymous. IMO your bluffing theres no way theres someone thats a future All-Star who is very polished that was drafted out of high school late beacuse of commitment to college, your full of shit, and if your not then say who your talking about because i cant see anyone possible.

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