Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Tejesh's FINAL post-season 2008 Prospect List

There were about 10 different versions of this list before I settled (finally) on this one. I started with a top 15, and then kept expanding it until I got to 30. Again, this is just MY list, The Man posted his, and David should be posting his in the next week or so. This will be my final postseason 2008 list. We'll probably do another round of lists shortly before the 2009 season starts.

1. Fernando Martinez OF

Consensus #1 prospect - has to prove he can stay on the field for a full season. Ripping shit up in the Dominican Winter League

2. Wilmer Flores SS

Many people have flipped Fernando and Wilmer - and they may not be wrong. Teenage hitting sensation, playing SS now, may have to move to a corner as he fills out. Keep in mind he'll be playing the majority of 2009 at age 17.

3. Jon Niese LHSP

OK, so he doesn't throw 95, and he needs a cutter/slider combination, but he spent the entire year at age 21, and reached the big leagues. He should, barring trade or necessity in NY, be anchoring Buffalo's rotation in 2009. Expect further gains from Niese.

4. Dan Murphy 3B/2B/1B/LF

We all saw what he can do with his bat, it's a question of finding him a position (3b, 2b, 1b, lf, rf). He won't be anything other then average at best anywhere, but with the type of offensive potential, he doesn't have to be.

5. Brad Holt RHSP

Yeah, I panned this pick when it was made, he was ranked 98th on BAs top 200 draft prospects. Oopsie. Holt is armed with a big mid 90s fastball, and has better command on his curveball then people thought. As with most NYPLers, we'll get a much better read on Holt after he spends time in the FSL, pitching friendly as it is.

6. Mike Carp 1B/LF

After a miserable 2007, Carp rebounded to post a career season in 2008, setting highs in AVG (.299), OBP (.403), OPS (.874), 2b (29), HR (17), and walks (79). It was a great season for the 21/22 year old, and one he can look to build off of next year in AAA, where he will be one of the younger everyday players, at age 22/23. Carp was able to put up such good numbers due to his newfound "prowess" against LHP (.792 OPS vs a career OPS of .661). Keeping that number over .750 will dictate whether the Mets view him as the successor to Carlos Delgado in 2010.

7. Nick Evans LF/1B

Evans, unlike Carp, did not falter in AA, instead proceeding directly to "kick the shit out of the league" phase, hitting .311/.365/.561/.926, and earning himself multiple callups to the majors, where he performed very well in a platoon situation. A very rough start to his winter league season ultimately means nothing, he should open 2009 either on the Mets bench, or preferably in Buffalo.

8. Reese Havens SS

Havens showed plus power when healthy this year, but he wasn't healthy all that often. Still, the Mets have to have liked what they saw, and a good bet is that he'll open 2009 in St. Lucie. Especially with Wilmer Flores likely opening in Savannah.

9. Josh Thole C/1B

High average, high OBP catcher who hits from the left side, only thing people question is his defense. Is tearing up the AFL, a very good sign for someone who played high A in the regular season. Booked for Binghamton in 2009.

10. Jenrry Mejia RHSP

Appeared out of nowhere to post a great half season between the GCL and Brooklyn, posting a 2.89 era in 71.2 innings. He'll play all of 2009 at age 19, so whether he's in Savannah, or St. Lucie, he'll be well ahead of the game. Mejia flashes a fastball between 94-96, which some scouts think could eventually reach into the upper 90s, and a curveball which shows plus potential. He also has a harder slider which he uses.

11. Jefry Marte 3B

Marte was signed in the same class as Flores, and he did just as well, but was a level behind, so he didn't get nearly the same pub as Wilmer. Make no mistake though, Marte is just as big a prospect as Flores, and should be playing alongside Wilmer in Savannah next season.

12. Bobby Parnell RHP

Parnell made his major league debut this year, one of 4 BMets to do so, he impressed out of the pen with a mid 90s fastball and good slider, just as advertised. Reportedly, he's making major strides with his slider in the AFL, tightening the spin on it. Still, it's hard to see how the Mets don't keep him in the pen for 2009.

13. Scott Moviel RHSP

Tall righty had a piss poor April (1-4, 9.68 era), but rebounded to post a very good season minus April (9-4, 3.35 era). Moviel features a low 90s fastball which should gain some velocity as he fills out, along with a curve and change which developed nicely as the season progressed. Moviel is on track to open 2009 in St. Lucie.

14. Maikel Cleto RHSP

Cleto, like Mejia, leaped onto many prospect lists this season, despite some rather on the surface unimpressive numbers (5-11, 4.25 in Savannah). But it was a couple of games which really grabbed people's eyes, first, a complete game shutout on May 22nd, and then 2 weeks later, firing 7 innings of 1 run ball, generating 19 groundball outs. Cleto's got a sinker (obviously), and throws in the mid to upper 90s right now, and there are some who think more velocity is possible. Cleto should open 2009 in St. Lucie.

15. Dillon Gee RHSP

Dillon Gee was one of a few pitchers who dominated the NYPL after being drafted in 2007, and as such, not much was expected of him in 2008. Well, Gee turned around and dominated the FSL, and then the EL, posting a sub 3 era cumulatively, and is unscored upon in Puerto Rico (2 GS, 11 IP). Gee should open 2009 back in Binghamton, but a quick promotion to Buffalo isn't out of the question.

16. Robert Carson LHSP

Carson features 4 pitches, a fastball, changeup, cutter and curveball. His fastball sits 90-92, and has topped out at 94. His changeup sits around 75-80, while his curveball is low to mid 70s. He feels his curveball needs more bite to it, and he is also working on developing a fifth pitch, a slider. He plowed through the GCL and Kingsport, and should open 2009 in Savannah.

17. Ike Davis 1B

Davis was drafted out of Arizona State in 2008, with the 18th overall pick, and debuted with a plop in Brooklyn. However, he's got massive power potential, and I find it very difficult to both judge, and take seriously, any stats put up by a recently drafted player. We should get a much better feel for Davis next season when he plays in St. Lucie.

18. Francisco Pena C

Pena improved slightly off a disasterous 2007 season, and he did play all of 2008 at age 18, so there are plenty of reasons to give him another mulligan, but reports of him being shaky behind the plate defensively, combined with his decline in plate discipline (.3152 BB/K in 2007, .2632 in 2008) led to his stock, in my eyes, plummetting. Despite very pedestrian numbers in Savannah (.264/.308/.380/.688), Pena should open in St. Lucie for 2009, at age 19.

19. Eddie Kunz RHRP

Kunz dominated AA, but has found life above AA to be very difficult, posting an ERA of 13.50 in 2.2 MLB innings, 7.94 in 5.2 AAA innings, and 10.13 in 13.1 AFL innings. Granted, all very small miniscule sample sizes, and the groundball tendencies are there (6.00 in the majors, 1.60 in AAA, 3.00 in the AFL), but he's given up 4 homers in those 21.2 innings above AA. Still, Kunz is either 1 or 2 amongst relief prospects, depending on what you call Parnell, and should open 2009 in Buffalo.

20. Michael Antonini LHSP

If Dillon Gee garnered a little attention post-draft in 2007, Antonini garnered none. A late teens pick out of a small college, who spent a good part of the 07 season in Kingsport, there wasn't much hype about Antonini. And then 2008 came around, and Michael blasted his way through 3 levels of the farm, starting in Savannah, and ending in Binghamton, posting a fabulous 9-7, 2.77 line in 28 GS. He should open 2008 in Binghamton, but a quick promotion to Buffalo isn't out of the question.

21. Jeurys Familia RHSP
22. Kyle Allen RHSP
23. Ezequiel Carrera OF
24. Ruben Tejada SS
25. Brant Rustich RHP
26. Nathan Vineyard LHSP
27. Angel Calero LHSP
28. Greg Veloz 2b
29. Lucas Duda 1b/OF
30. Nick Carr RHSP

11 comments:

  1. dont u think thole is way, way too high?? (should be around pena, no?) along with antonini (well, him not so much)....we have a lot of guys with high upsides (in the low minors), shouldn't they get more recognition? also aren't guys like kunz and tejada a little too low?

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  2. Why is veloz so low, he had a great season as a 20 year old and moved up mid season, he's been steady and has a ton of speed, shouldn't he be like in the mid teens

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  3. .286/.339/.402/.741 Savannah

    .278/.333/.380/.713 overall

    .207/.281/.230/.511 in Hawaii

    Not exactly a great season.

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  4. Dylan Owen should be comfortably in the top 20. C'mon, you even managed to throw Rustich and Vineyard in the mid-20s based on magic dust, and no Owen?

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  5. owen doesn't really have upside....guys like antonini and owen shouldn't be up there that high, there upside is, at best, a 5-6th starter. also, i no thole is hitting for average and getting on base, but he should not even be close to the top 10, especially with poor defense at the catcher position.

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  6. this is an extention of my previous post b/c i didnt want to make one large one.
    the problem with the mets system is that its high upside guys are still in the low minors and very raw which means they're still far away and have little trade value. the only high-upside prospect in the upper levels is fmart. holt, although he has a very good fastball, really only has one pitch. his success depends on the development of his other pitches. flores, marte, puello, rodriguez, and others are in rookie ball. cleto, mejia, moviel are in the lower levels who have huge upside but are still extremely raw (especially cleto, at 18 already calling him a bullpen guy even before he has a chance to develop his secondary pitches--although his 4-seamer is in the upper 90's touches 100 and a devastating sinker makes 2 pitches, kinda like pelfrey but has no control whatsoever). havens (lower level and should move up quickly as a college player if it weren't for injuries). ike davis, we'll see, potential but scouts say his swing will not translate well with wood so if we can check out how he adjusts...pena and tejada are also very good prospects (even though for some reason people don't like tejada when he has great obp at such a young age, makes good contact, and great defense at the ss position)...there are other low level minor players that i didn't mention who have really good tools that i didn't mention because it would have been real long

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  7. Rustich, if he hadn't gotten hurt this year, would've made my top 10. He's got that kind of stuff, 2 or 3 average to plus pitches. The fact he got hurt is a serious shame, because if the Mets had gotten their heads out of their asses, he could've been closing games for us by mid 2009, if he hadn't gotten hurt, that is. Fact is, of the two, Brant Rustich is roughly 100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 times better then Eddie Kunz.

    Dylan Owen is junk, upper 80s to low 90s fastball, trick slider which got him through Brooklyn, he'll get eaten alive in Binghamton. Antonini's a 4-5 pitch lefty, he should do fine. Dillon Gee's the one guy on there who I think will do the best (of the college 17-22 round trinity).

    Hopefully the Mets let Ezequiel Carrera and Ruben Tejada repeat high A (for at least a month or two in Carrera's case). Both showed alot this year, Tejada's K rate was only 20ish points higher then 2007s rate in the GCL.

    But yeah, the vast majority of the high upside guys are in the very low minors.

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  8. i no every1 hates kunz but he's got to be higher up there. theres guys there that will most likely be backsups (if they make it at all) in the majrs.

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  9. y does eveyone hate kunz he never really got chance he pitched in lik 3 games and pitched fine except for 1 home run and that was the last we saw of him he wasnt even a september call up. and that 3 game preformence with 1 one home run was certainly better then the rest of the crap out there in the bullpen *COUGH* *Hielman* *COUGH*

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  10. OK, this is for you people hatin the Thole Pick at the number 9 slot. For some reason i keep hearing that Pena is so much better than Thole. Hearing Pena in the same sentence as Thole don't even make sense. Could someone get real and look at the numbers or actually get off their buts and look for real by watching a game? Dont just look at Fransico Pena and think, well he is Tony Pena's Son. He is automatically awesome. Because if that's the case, i would look good playing baseball myself. But really 28 pass balls for Pena. throwing out 31 of 134 baserunners. Thole had 7 pass balls with, throwing out 20 of 89 baserunners. Not to mention that was Thole's first year catching. SOOO that was regualar season.. They invite thole to the AFL and tell him str8 forward that he needs to concentrate on better defense, and thats exactly what he did. Scouts were impressed by his defense as he also batted above .300. The mets organization, and coaches know Thole is a major prospect, and if they dont there is somthing wrong. With Synider and Castro's contracts due after the 09 season. You can bet you will see Thole between 2010 or 2011 on the big league team. This kids work ethic will keep proving all you wrong that think he dont deserve to be a top prospect. I believe a Invite to the big league spring training would be well fit for Mr. Thole. As he is the Mets Number 1 catching prospect

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  11. wow read that last post, kinda sounds right on the money huh??? yeah thats right cus i wrote it lol

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