Prospect Focus: Mike Carp

Splits courtesy www.minorleaguesplits.com

Mike Carp was drafted out of Lakewood High in the 9th round of the 2004 draft, after putting up these stats as a senior: 32 games, 52 for 107, 14 2b, 8 3b, 11 HR, 60 RBI, 17 BBs, 11 Ks, .486/.557/1.075 with a 1.632 OPS. He was sent to the Gulf Coast League, where he batted .267/.358/.393 in 57 games (51 for 191, 30 runs, 12 2b, 4 HR, 26 RBI, 22/51 BB/K), for a BB/K ratio of .4313, and a K rate of .267.

In 2005, Carp skipped Kingsport and Brooklyn, landing with the full season Hagerstown Suns in the Sally League, where he hit .249/.358/.476/.834 (78 for 313, 49 runs, 12 2b, 3b, 19 HR, 63 RBI, 35/96 BB/K), with a .3646 BB/K ratio (worsened from 2004), and a very bad .306 K rate.

Carp got off to a hot start in Hagerstown, hitting .277/.397/.660/1.057 in April, before falling into a deep 39 for 169 (.231) 2 month slump. He struck out just 12 times in 47 April ABs, but that number ballooned to 36 in 94 May ABs, before trending lower in June (20 Ks in 75 ABs) and July (19 Ks in 81 ABs).

It's backward looking, but we've always harped on Carp's L/R splits as the only thing which is holding him back, and while he's hitting LHP better in 2008 (.257/.348/.429/.776), he didn't hit them well up until this year, 2005 was no exception. He hit just .233/.341/.370/.711 vs LHP in Hagerstown (17 for 73, 4 2b, 2 HR, 8/22 BB/K), a .3636 BB/K ratio, and a putrid .301 K rate. Conversely, vs RHP, he hit .260/.368/.511/.879 (60 for 231, 8 2b, 3b, 16 HR, 25/68 BB/K), a .3676 BB/K ratio and a still way too high .294 K rate.

Carp used the FSL in 2006 as his coming out party, setting career highs in BA, OBP, walks, and 2b. He hit .287.381/.449/.830 (142 for 494, 69 runs, 27 2b, 3b, 17 HR, 88 RBI, 53/107 BB/K), a .4953 BB/K ratio, and a .217 K rate, both markedly improved from 2006.

Carp struggled against LHP, much as he did in 2005, hitting just .245/.345/.336/.681 (35 for 143, 4 2b, 3 HR, 13/44 BB/K), a .2955 BB/K ratio, and a .308 K rate, very bad numbers. Against RHP, he hit a robust .305/.395/.496/.891 (107 for 351, 23 2b, 3b, 14 HR, 40/63 BB/K), a .6349 BB/K ratio and .179 K rate, career bests vs RHP.

Carp got off to a slow start in St. Lucie, batting just .208/.337/.351/.688 in April, but then turned it on big time, hitting .302/.389/.468/.857 from May 1st on. He hit much better at home (.315/.401/.506/.907) then on the road (.259/.359/.391/.750).

2007 saw Carp in Binghamton, where he had a miserable year to forget about, setting career lows in virtually every offensive category. He hit just .251/.337/.387/.725 (90 for 359, 55 runs, 16 2b, 11 HR, 48 RBI, 39/75 BB/K), a .5200 BB/K ratio, and a .209 K rate, so while the rest of his game suffered, he did somewhat improve his plate discipline/awareness.

Carp put up laughably abysmal numbers vs LHP, hitting just .174/.211/.211/.422 against lefties (19 for 109, 2b, HR, 2/24 BB/K), a .0833 BB/K ratio, and a .220 K rate. Conversely, he hit RHP very well, .278/.375/.451/.826 (71 for 255, 14 2b, 10 HR, 36/49 BB/K), a very good .7347 BB/K ratio, and a .192 K rate. Carp could never get on track, first injuring his finger in May, and then his leg in June, that combined with the advanced pitching made 2007 a year to throw away for Carp, and fans of Carp.

UPDATE 2008: Thankfully, Carp repeated AA, and he put up infinitely better numbers. Carp ended up hitting a miniscule shade under .300 (.2991). His line for the season was truly great, he set career highs in AVG, OBP, OPS, 2b, HR, and BBs. For the 2008 season, Carp hit .299/.403/.471/.874 (143 for 478, 67 runs, 29 2b, 3b, 17 HR, 72 RBI, 79/88 BB/K), an off the charts outstanding .8977 BB/K, easily the highest of his career. His K rate, .184, is also the best of his career.

Carp started off just abusing BOTH LHP and RHP, but his numbers vs LHP fell off dramatically. Still, he posted career highs in OPS, AVG, OBP and SLG against southpaws: .268/.354/.438/.792 (41 for 153, 21 runs, 6 2b, 3b, 6 HR, 23 RBI, 19/32 BB/K), a manageable .5938 BB/K ratio, and a K rate of just .209, again, both career highs vs LHP. Against RHP, Carp enjoyed his usual level of success, hitting .314/.425/.486/.911 (102 for 325, 46 runs, 23 2b, 11 HR, 49 RBI, 60/56 BB/K), a phenominal 1.0714 BB/K ratio, and an equally great .172 K rate.

In Mike Carp's 3.5 years covered by minorleaguesplits.com (2005-2008), he's gotten 1642 ABs, and has put up a .275/.371/.445/.816 line (452 for 1642, 83 2b, 3 3b, 63 HR, 200/357 BB/K), and has hit .233/.317/.344/.661 (111 for 477, 15 2b, 3b, 12 HR, 41/122 BB/K) vs LHP and .293/.393/.486/.879 (341 for 1165, 68 2b, 2 3b, 51 HR, 159/235 BB/K) vs RHP. Most of Carp's HR come on fly balls (58/63), and his 2b are pretty much split evenly between fly balls and line drives (35/80 FB, 36/80 LD)

THE FUTURE: With Nick Evans and Dan Murphy in NY, some may think the Mets have soured somewhat on Mike Carp, but that's not the case. Carp remains as prized in the front office's eyes as ever, perhaps even moreso after bouncing back from his disappointing 2007 to post a career year in 2008. Carp is on track to open 2009 in AAA, and then possibly succeed Carlos Delgado as the 2010 1b.