Tuesday, September 30, 2008

9/30 Link + Prospect Focus: Fernando Martinez

HWL Boxscore
HWL Gameday

Game's @ 9pm Eastern tonight.
Splits courtesy www.minorleaguesplits.com

Fernando Martinez signed with the Mets during the IFA signing period of 2005 for a $1.4 million signing bonus. He started his pro career all the way in full season A ball, in Hagerstown, where he absolutely ripped it up, hitting .333/.389/.505/.894 (64 for 192, 24 runs, 14 2b, 2 3b, 5 HR, 28 RBI, 15/36 BB/K), for an excellent .4167 BB/K ratio, and a great .188 K rate (remember he was just 17 years old)

Fernando had just 24 ABs against LHP in Hagerstown, hitting a putrid .167/.310/.292/.602 (4 for 24, 3 2b, 4/4 BB/K), a very good 1.00 BB/K ratio, and an equally good .167 K rate. Against RHP, he hit a blistering .353/.404/.532/.936 (55 for 156, 9 2b, 2 3b, 5 HR, 12/29 BB/K), for a .4138 BB/K ratio, and a .186 K rate.

FMart was incredibly consistent in his rookie season, hitting .300+ in every month of the season (although he missed considerable time due to injury, getting just 94 ABs from May 1st to July 31st).

Martinez was sent to St. Lucie in August, finishing off his first year in pro ball at high A, where he hit just .193/.254/.387/.641 (23 for 119, 18 runs, 4 2b, 2 3b, 5 HR, 11 RBI, 6/24 BB/K), for a .2500 BB/K ratio, and a still very good .202 K rate. Martinez, by some metrics, outperformed his Hagerstown numbers (a .194 IsoP in St. Lucie vs a .172 in H-Town, for one). Nando hit .216/.259/.392/.651 vs LHP in St. Lucie (11 for 51, 3 HR, 2/14 BB/K), a .143 BB/K ratio, and an alarming rise to a .275 K rate. However, he controlled the zone better against RHP, as evidenced by his a .3637 BB/K ratio, and a very good .151 K rate. His other numbers, though, were not good, he hit .192/.259/.384/.643 (14 for 73, 4 2b, 2 3b, 2 HR, 4/11 BB/K).

Overall in 2006, Martinez hit .276/.336/.451/.787 (85 for 308, 16 2b, 4 3b, 10 HR, 22/59 BB/K) for a .3729 BB/K ratio, and an excellent .192 K rate. Against LHP, he hit .195/.271/.351/.622 (15 for 77, 3 2b, 3 HR, 6/19 BB/K), a .3157 BB/K ratio, with a corresponding .247 K rate. Versus RHP, he hit .303/.358/.485/.843 (70 for 231, 13 2b, 7 HR, 16/40 BB/K), with a .40 BB/K ratio, and a very good .173 K rate.

Despite posting extremely subpar numbers in St. Lucie (age/level aside), Martinez was promoted to Binghamton for the 2007 season, where he hit .271/.336/.377/.713 (64 for 236, 32 runs, 11 2b, 3b, 4 HR, 21 RBI, 20/51 BB/K), with a .3922 BB/K ratio, and a .216 K rate. HIs numbers improved a good deal versus LHP, he hit .263/.311/.368/.679 in 2007 (15 for 57, 3 2b, HR, 2/16 BB/K), with a very bad .125 BB/K ratio, and an equally bad .280 K rate. However, his improvement vs LHP came along with a vast reduction of his numbers against RHP. Martinez hit just .270/.342/.374/.716 (47 for 174, 7 2b, 3b, 3 HR, 18/33 BB/K), with a .5455 BB/K ratio, and a good .190 K rate.

Thankfully, the Mets let Fernando repeat AA in 2008, and he did put up better numbers across the board, with a .287/.340/.432/.772 line (101 for 352, 48 runs, 19 2b, 4 3b, 8 HR, 43 RBI, 27/73 BB/K, 6/8 SBs), for a .3699 BB/K ratio, and a corresponding .207 K rate. However, his IsoD was down from 65 in 2007 to 53 in 2008, but his IsoP (isolated power, SLG-AVG, or ((TB-1b)/ABs) did increase sharply from 106 in 2007 to 145 in 2008.

Fernando struggled mightily against LHP, hitting just .217/.298/.368/.665 (23 for 106, 15 runs, 5 2b, 3b, 3 HR, 18 RBI, 12/31 BB/K), with a .3871 BB/K ratio and a very very alarming .292 K rate. Against RHP, Fernando did much better, hitting .317/.360/.459/.819 (78 for 246, 33 runs, 14 2b, 3 3b, 5 HR, 25 RBI, 15/42 BB/K), with a .3571 BB/K ratio and a .171 K rate.

THE FUTURE: Martinez should open 2008 in Buffalo (the Mets new AAA affiliate), hopefully playing a corner OF position since he won't be playing CF in the majors. Fernando, as we saw in ST, can stay in on lefties, but the numbers speak for themselves, and he must improve that .665 OPS vs LHP, lest he be labelled as a future platoon player. And keep in mind, Fernando will only be 20 as he begins AAA, he can safely repeat the level twice, and still be on pace to make his MLB debut at age 22 in 2011 (but we'll say he makes it up at some point in 2009)

Sunday, September 28, 2008

9/27 Hawaii Winter League Report! Tejada!

Honolulu 8, Waikiki 4

ss Ruben Tejada 2 for 4, run, 3b, 3 RBI, BB, 2 Ks
c Jordan Abruzzo 1 for 4, run, RBI, K
2b Greg Veloz 1 for 4, run, 2b, 2 Ks
Josh Stinson 3 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 Ks, 0.00 era, W (1-0), 48:32:16, 5:2:2
Junior Guerra 2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 4 Ks, 9 era, 32:24:8, 0:2:4
Roy Merritt 2 IP, 2/4 BB/K, 0.00 era, 33:19:14, 2:0:4

Saturday, September 27, 2008

9/27 Link

Honolulu Boxscore @ 7pm Hawaii (1am Eastern)

1. SS Ruben Tejada
7. C Jordan Abruzzo
8. 2b Greg Veloz
10. SP Josh Stinson

Friday, September 26, 2008

Opening Day for the HWL is tomorrow

Our game I believe is at Midnight Eastern time (7pm Hawaii). Here's the roster we have:

RP Junior Guerra
RP Roy Merritt L/L 9/22/85
SP Josh Stinson R/R 3/14/88
C Jordan Abruzzo
SS Ruben Tejada R/R 9/1/89
2b Greg Veloz S/R 6/3/88

Florida State League Leaderboard

Florida State League (A+)

Josh Thole .300/.382/.427/.808 (104 for 347, 49 runs, 25 2b, 2 3b, 5 HR, 56 RBI, 45/38 BB/K)

AVG (T-5th), OBP (T-3rd), SLG (T-13th), OPS (T-9th), 2b (10th), HR (T-15th), BB (15th)

Lucas Duda .263/.358/.398/.755 (127 for 483, 58 runs, 26 2b, 3 3b, 11 HR, 66 RBI, 66/129 BB/K, 2/9 SBs)

AVG (T-25th), OBP (T-9th), SLG (22nd), OPS (19th), 2b (9th), HR (T-9th), BB (1st), K (4th)

Ezequiel Carrera .263/.344/.393/.737 (113 for 430, 61 runs, 11 2b, 12 3b, 7 HR, 29 RBI, 46/86 BB/K, 28/37 SBs)

AVG (T-25th), OBP (T-17th), SLG (26th), OPS (23rd), 2b (24th), 3b (1st), HR (T-13th), BB (14th), SBs (4th)

Dylan Owen 12-6, 3.43 era, 24 GS, 2 CG, CGSO, 133.2 IP, 135 H, 55/51 R/ER, 12 HR, 33/116 BB/K, 1.26 WHIP

W (T-1st), L (T-8th), ERA (9th), GS (T-3rd), IP (9th), H (10th), HR (T-7th), BB (T-25th), K (4th), WHIP (8th)

Dillon Gee 8-6, 3.25 era, 21 GS, 127.1 IP, 117 H, 49/46 R/ER, 6 HR, 19/94 BB/K, 1.07 WHIP

W (T-5th), L (T-8th), ERA (6th), GS (T-6th), IP (14th), H (T-18th), HR (T-13th), BB (T-39th), K (T-16th), WHIP (3rd)

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

2008 Eastern League Leaderboard

*Note: For pitchers, lower rankings in L, H, HR, BB are good (ie: you don't want to lead the league in losses, hits, homers or walks)

Eastern League (AA)

Nick Evans .311/.365/.561/.926 (92 for 296, 52 runs, 18 2b, 7 3b, 14 HR, 53 RBI, 26/64 BB/K)

(does not qualify officially, not enough ABs): AVG (3rd), OBP (T-15th), SLG (2nd), OPS (2nd), 2b (T-17th), 3b (T-4th), HR (T-10th)

Daniel Murphy .308/.374/.496/.870 (110 for 357, 56 runs, 26 2b, 3b, 13 HR, 67 RBI, 39/46 BB/K, 14/19 SBs)

AVG (3rd), OBP (11th), SLG (6th), OPS (5th), 2b (T-9th), HR (T-11th), SB (11th)

Mike Carp .299/.403/.471/.874 (143 for 478, 67 runs, 29 2b, 3b, 17 HR, 72 RBI, 79/88 BB/K)

AVG (9th), OBP (T-4th), SLG (8th), OPS (4th), 2b (T-6th), HR (T-7th), BB (1st)

Fernando Martinez .287/.340/.432/.772 (101 for 352, 48 runs, 19 2b, 4 3b, 8 HR, 43 RBI, 27/73 BB/K, 6/8 SBs)

AVG (17th), OBP (28th), SLG (21st), OPS (26th), 2b (T-16th), 3b (T-7th), HR (T-16th)

Jon Niese 6-7, 3.04 era, 22 GS, 2 CG, CGSO, 124.1 IP, 118 H, 53/42 R/ER, 5 HR, 44/112 BB/K, 1.50 GO/FO, .253 BAA, 1.30 WHIP

W (T-9th), L (T-6th), ERA (4th), GS (T-7th), IP (19th), H (20th), HR (T-15th), BB (T-18th), K (T-9th), WHIP (T-8th)

Bobby Parnell 10-6, 4.30 era, 24 GS, 127.2 IP, 126 H, 66/61 R/ER, 14 HR, 57/91 BB/K, 1.52 GO/FO, .258 BAA, 1.43 WHIP

W (T-5th), L (T-7th), ERA (21st), GS (T-5th), IP (18th), H (T-17th), HR (T-6th), BB (T-8th), K (T-19th), WHIP (T-16th)

Eddie Kunz: 3rd in saves with 27

Sunday, September 21, 2008

Saturday, September 20, 2008

2008 Hawaii Winter Baseball Roster

Honolulu Sharks

RP Stephen Clyne S/R 9/22/84
RP Roy Merritt L/L 9/22/85
SP Josh Stinson R/R 3/14/88
C Francisco Pena R/R 10/12/89
SS Ruben Tejada R/R 9/1/89
2b Greg Veloz S/R 6/3/88

Reese Havens was rumored to be going to Hawaii, but his name is not on the roster

I haven't seen this anywhere else - but someone on our chat box here has said Jordan Abruzzo will be replacing Francisco Pena on the roster.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Mets "Short Season" Top Prospects

Over the past few days Baseball America has been breaking down the best prospects in each level of the minor league system. Today, they wrapped up the short season leagues with the NYPL, and out of the 3 leagues, the Mets have 7 "top prospects". I tried just to use pieces of each scouting report, but, as you'll see, that didn't work to well.

3. Jefry Marte, 3b, Mets

The Mets signed Marte last summer out of the Dominican Republic for $550,000. He participated in the instructional league last fall but had to wait until he turned 17 before he could participate in his first pro season. Even as one of the youngest players in the GCL, he had one of the more impressive offensive seasons, batting .325/.398/.532.

"He already has a good swing and a strong body, but I can see him growing and getting even bigger and stronger," GCL Mets manager Bobby Floyd said. "He is going to have some real power."

~Keep an eye out for this kid. All the talk has been about Flores, but this kid can rake. Also, the talk has been that Marte will join Flores on the left side of Savannah's infield next year.

12. Cesar Puello, of, Mets

"..He finished the season batting .305 but his most impressive accomplishment was overcoming a tendency to chase breaking balls out of the zone. He struck out 20 times in his first 13 games but punched out just 12 times in the final 27 contents.

Puello is a physical prospect who projects to have average tools across the board. He's an instinctive player who learns quickly. He fits best as a right fielder with a strong arm and the requisite power for the position.

~Didn't hear much about Puello this year, but he's supposed to be a legitmate prospect, so I'm interested to see him play next year. I'm guessing he'll be with Savannah.

Appy League

2. Wilmer Flores, SS, Mets

...The youngest player in the league (he turned 17 on Aug. 6), Flores showed plus-plus bat speed and a knack for putting the barrel on the ball. He struck out in just 11 percent of his at-bats, the lowest rate among league batting title qualifiers.

Though he's an aggressive hitter, he keeps his hands back well and adjusts to breaking balls. Flores also showed a willingness to use the whole field when behind in the count. His power at this stage is predominantly to his pull side, but his line-drive stroke and physicality suggest the potential for plus power....

~The only thing I can add to this is that Flores should have been the #1 prospect. Beckham, the #1 prospect, is a year older than Flores and failed to come close to Flores' offensive production. What ever, doesn't really matter.


7. Brad Holt, RHP, Brooklyn (Mets)

...He commands his fastball very well in the zone and throws it at 93-96 mph with excellent life...
Holt repeats his easy delivery and throws from a downhill angle. Occasionally he flashes an average or better slider around 80 mph, but most of the time he holds onto the slider too long when he throws it. Scouts are encouraged that he at least repeats the pitch, giving reason to believe he could throw an average slider with a couple of mechanical adjustments and some repetition.

Every once in a great while, Holt also throws a 79 mph changeup, but the pitch remains very raw. The Mets kept him in the rotation this summer, though some scouts think he profiles better as a reliever...

~I felt he should of been ranked higher, but I guess people still don't believe in him as a starter. St. Lucie next year, probably.

9. Jenrry Mejia, RHP, Brooklyn (Mets)

..Regardless, he throws much harder than most 6-footers, running his fastball up to 97-98 mph and sitting at 95-96 even when throwing out of the stretch in the middle innings.

"He's a power-armed guy. He's a freak," a National League scout said. "I'm not even saying he's any good right now, I'm just saying he's a freak. He could probably throw 100 mph. His delivery's fair, but it's hard to repeat. I see a hell of a lot of effort with Mejia. He's like the kid at the carnival trying to win the thing, just letting it all go. He's got no rhythm. He's trying to be more fluid, but it's not happening."

Mejia works around the plate but doesn't have a lot of command in the strike zone or feel for pitching. He does have a chance for three legitimate above-average pitches, however...

~This kid is extremely raw, but he's extremely talented. "HE COULD probably throw 100 MPH?" Well, if that happens, this kid is going to jump prospect rankings QUICK.

11. Reese Havens, SS, Brooklyn (Mets)

...An elbow injury hampered the start of Havens' pro career, limiting him to DH for all but two games in the NY-P. He also missed time with a pulled groin, and his overall numbers were lackluster at best. But scouts caught a glimpse of his easy power to all fields in batting practice. He has a mature offensive approach and the ability to wear out the gaps.

~Don't sleep on Reese. Injuries plagued him this year, but this kid has a legit bat.

17. Ike Davis, 1B, Brooklyn (Mets)

..The Mets took him with the first of their two first-round picks (17th overall), but he was one of the bigger disappointments in the NY-P. Before getting relatively hot over the final 14 games of the season, Davis was hitting .227, and he finished the summer homerless in 215 at-bats.

"He was just a flop," an American League scout said. "I don't know if anyone will have anything good to say about him. He was moping around, just not giving it to you. He wasn't very aggressive at the plate, and when he strikes out he's always shocked when he's called out."....

~I was unimpressed with Davis early on, but in the last 2 weeks of the Cyclones' season he showed great progress. Good transfer of power, good balance, solid swing.. He has a lot of doubters to prove wrong.

The Mets have/had an extremely talented group in the lower levels of the minors. Some of these guys like Flores/Marte and projected to have serious power, while guys like Meja and Holt are power arms organizations love. Keep underrating this system...

Monday, September 15, 2008

Thinking About Mike Carp (plus a Tej edit!)

Tej edit @ 10:37pm: Bobby Parnell made his MLB debut with a scoreless 8th, he got 2 groundouts and a pop up to left. He flashed a 93-95 fastball, and threw one good changeup around 85 MPH. Here's hoping we get to see more of Parnell.

In my review of the pre-season top prospect list I wrote that I didn't see Mike Carp having a future with the Mets, and I expected him to be traded sometime next year. It's not that I don't like Carp, I just don't see where he fits in.

I'd like to hear your thoughts on Carp's potential, and if you see him having a future with the Mets.

Sunday, September 14, 2008

Jonathan Niese - DOMINANT

Jon Niese's 2nd major league start went much much better then his first. Niese showed that poise we saw in spring training tonight, right from first pitch you could tell it was a different Jon Niese on the mound at Shea.

Niese fired 8 shutout innings tonight, allowing just 6 hits and 2 walks, striking out 7. If you watched the game, you saw he had a fantastic curveball tonight, and he used it liberally to get a majority of his Ks. He also generated 10 groundouts, most of them on that curveball.

And - he got his first hit. It was a searing line drive, lol. OK, a little chopper to second base that he beat out. Everything can't be roses, right? Anyway, a terrific outing from Niese, with the Mets having lost in the afternoon, looking at having their lead sliced in half due to Philly's win, and he stepped up and delievered exactly what was required. Way to go, Jon Niese!

Jon Niese 8 IP, 6 H, 2/7 BB/K, 4.05 era, W (1-0), 116:75:39, 10:7:7 (career high in pitches)

And oh yeah - Dan Murphy had another hit PHing, he's now hitting .365/.450 in the majors. 31 for 85 with 14 walks and a sac fly. Wow.

Friday, September 12, 2008

Jon Niese Starting Tomorrow

With tonight's Braves/Mets game rained out the Mets were forced to juggle their rotation for the upcoming week. To avoid two TBA' starters in a row the Mets have decided to pitch Jon Niese in game two of tomorrow's double header, and push everyone else back a day.

The Mets rotation now looks like this for the upcoming week:

Saturday Game One: Johan Santana
Saturday Game Two: Jon Niese
Sunday: Oliver Perez
Monday: Pedro Martinez
Tuesday: Mike Pelfrey
Wednesday: TBD
Thursday: Johan Santana

Don't forget to join the discussion below.

Where Should They Go?

Some more discussion for today, but this time it will involve a bit more thinking. I'm going to list a couple of players in the Mets organization and you tell me which league they should be starting in next season. We'll start with five players, and if it generates enough discussion we'll expand it later.

Fernando Martinez
Brad Holt
Ike Davis
Wilmer Flores
Fransisco Pena

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Discussion Question

There was a ton of breakout prospects in the system this year, most notably, Daniel Murphy, but there was also some guys who didn't have that type of season we had hoped for.

So, I ask you, which player in the Mets farm system disappointed you this year?

MPH August 2008 Hotsheet

For the purposes of the minor leaguers, "August" will include all regular season games played in September.

1. LF Daniel Murphy L/R 4/1/85 MLB New York

What a banner month for Daniel Murphy. He makes his major league debut, has his first homer, first double, first RBI, and oh yeah - he's played out of his mind all the while manning a position, that of the Trinity, he played the least amount of (LF). Murphy's extremely above average eye has helped him to a first month line of .333/.420/.493/.913 (23 for 69, 13 runs, 3 2b, 3b, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 11/14 BB/K). He's played so well, that he's solidified his standing as pretty much the everyday LFer (he's in a strict platoon, with the limited LHP out there, he plays virtually everyday). Not only that, but in limited ABs against LHP, he's been virtually perfect (4 for 6, run, HR, 3 RBI, 2 BBs, .667/.667/1.167).

And as he told us, his name is Daniel, NOT Dan or Danny. So there.

2. 1b Mike Carp L/R 6/30/86 AA Binghamton

Before August: 115 for 379, 51 runs, 19 2b, 12 HR, 56 RBI, 53/68 BB/K, .303/.393/.449/.842

August: .283/.438/.556/.994 (28 for 99, 16 runs, 10 2b, 3b, 5 HR, 16 RBI, 26/20 BB/K)

Season: .299/.403/.471/.874 (143 for 478, 67 runs, 29 2b, 3b, 17 HR, 72 RBI, 79/88 BB/K)

Mike Carp ended a banner bounceback season with his best offensive month of the year (.289/.435/.567/1.002 in August proper). Most notable in his turnaround campaign is his newfound ability to handle lefties (.268/.354/.438/.792, 41 for 153, 21 runs, 6 2b, 3b, 6 HR, 23 RBI, 19/32 BB/K), while still keeping the ability to mash righties (.314/.425/.486/.911, 102 for 325, 46 runs, 23 2b, 11 HR, 49 RBI, 60/56 BB/K). Not to mention his dramatic improvement in plate discipline. While last year he had a respectable 39/75 BB/K ratio, this year he had an off the charts great 79/88 BB/K and an equally great 104 IsoD. Carp is eligible for the Rule V Draft, so it is a safe bet he'll conclude his great season with an addition to the team's 40 man roster.

3. 1b Lucas Duda L/R 2/3/86 A+ St. Lucie

Before August: 99 for 385, 42 runs, 22 2b, 3 3b, 7 HR, 52 RBI, 54/101 BB/K, .257/.355/.384/.739

August: .286/.368/.449/.817 (28 for 98, 16 runs, 4 2b, 4 HR, 14 RBI, 12/28 BB/K)

Season: .263/.358/.398/.755 (127 for 483, 58 runs, 26 2b, 3 3b, 11 HR, 66 RBI, 66/129 BB/K, 2/9 SBs)

Duda bookended his season with good offensive months (.862 OPS April, .817 OPS August), but it was the middle 3 months which sunk his season (.724 May, .621 June, .733 July). In addition, his complete inability to handle LHP (.187/.281/.247/.527, 28 for 150, 11 runs, 4 2b, 3b, HR, 13 RBI, 18/55 BB/K) led to the crumbling of his stats. He hit very well against RHP (.298/.393/.468/.861, 98 for 329, 47 runs, 22 2b, 2 3b, 10 HR, 52 RBI, 48/72 BB/K). Still, Duda likely showed enough to be promoted to Binghamton next season, after what will likely be a second straight winterball trip to Hawaii.

4. RHSP Dillon Gee R/R 4/28/86 A+ St. Lucie/AA Binghamton

Before August: 7-6, 3.36 era, 19 GS, 115.1 IP, 105 H, 18/81 BB/K

August: 3-0, 1.62 era, 6 GS, 39 IP, 30 H, 6/33 BB/K, 0.92 WHIP

Season: 10-6, 2.92 era, 25 GS, 154.1 IP, 135 H, 53/50 R/ER, 7 HR, 24/114 BB/K, 1.03 WHIP

Gee performed significantly better then expected, posting a very solid 8-6, 3.25 line in 21 starts, over 127.1 innings. However, it was his late season promotion to Binghamton, and performance there that really raised eyebrows across the prospect loving community. Gee went 2-0 with a ridiculous 1.33 era in 4 starts, pitching 7 innings in 3 of them, and not allowing more then 1 earned run in any. Gee didn't hit his innings total from last season (178.2), but he significantly bettered his performance (7-9, 3.78 between college/Brooklyn). This season, split between high A and AA, Gee was 10-6 with a 2.92 era. Gee should open 2009 right back in Binghamton, bridging that talent gap between the Jenrry Mejia/Scott Moviel/Brad Holt etc wave and the Jon Niese/Bobby Parnell/Eddie Kunz etc wave.

5. RHSP Scott Moviel R/R 5/7/88 A Savannah/A+ St. Lucie (one start)

Before August: 9-8, 4.54 era, 21 GS, 105 IP, 113 H, 31/71 BB/K, 1.37 WHIP

August: 1-0, 2.70 era, 4 GS, 20 IP, 17 H, 6/13 BB/K

Season: 10-8, 4.25 era, 25 GS, 125 IP, 130 H, 75/59 R/ER, 9 HR, 37/84 BB/K

Season minus April: 9-4, 3.35 era, 20 GS, 107.1 IP, 100 H, 29/71 BB/K, 1.20 WHIP, 2.43 BB/9

Moviel started off his first pro season in utterly disasterous fashion, compiling an ugly 1-4, 9.68 line in April. However, from May 1st on, he pitched very very well, as you can see above. Moviel hit a bit of a wall around the 90-105 inning marker, which coincided with his career high in IP, set last season. However, he pushed through it to set a new career high in innings, with 125. Look for Moviel to begin the 2009 season in St. Lucie, right on pace for a prospect at age 21.

6. OF Cesar Puello R/R 4/1/91 R GCL

Before August: 21 for 81, 10 runs, 2 2b, 7 RBI, 7/9 SBs, 2/22 BB/K, .259/.294/.284/.578

August: .357/.410/.457/.867 (25 for 70, 14 runs, 4 2b, HR, 10 RBI, 3/10 BB/K, 6/9 SBs)

Season: .305/.350/.364/.714 (46 for 151, 24 runs, 6 2b, HR, 17 RBI, 5/32 BB/K, 13/18 SBs)

Puello started off slow, hitting just .259 thru his first 81 ABs, but turned it on in August with a blistering .357 clip. He was signed during the IFA period of 2007, and was one of Omar's Big Three of 2007 (the other's being Wilmer Flores and Jefry Marte). Expect Puello to possibly open in Savannah next year, at age 18.

7. 2b Alonzo Harris R/R 1/16/89 R GCL

Before August: .321/.345/.396/.742, 17 for 53, 11 runs, 2b, HR, 4 RBI, 1/9 BB/K, 1/1 SBs

August: .294/.410/.627/1.037 (15 for 51, 12 runs, 5 2b, 4 HR, 6 RBI, 8/14 BB/K, 6/8 SBs)

Season: .308/.379/.510/.889 (32 for 104, 23 runs, 6 2b, 5 HR, 10 RBI, 9/23 BB/K, 7/9 SBs)

Harris was hitting for a high average all season, but he put on a very impressive power display in August, blasting 9 XBH in just 51 ABs to end with an impressive .889 OPS. It wouldn't be that shocking to see Harris in Savannah next year, especially with the Mets penchant for pushing prospects.

8. RHSP Jenrry Mejia R/R 10/11/89 A- Brooklyn

Before August: 4-1, 2.84 era, 8 GS, 38 IP, 24 H, 14/36 BB/K, 1 WHIP

August: 1-1, 2.94 era, 6 GS, 33.2 IP, 27 H, 12/31 BB/K, 1.16 WHIP

Season: 5-2, 2.89 era, 14 GS, CGSO, 71.2 IP, 51 H, 4 HR, 26/67 BB/K, 1.07 WHIP

Mejia had a great first season stateside, posting career highs in IP (71.2), Ks (67), and wins (5). And he was one of a a handful of teenagers to finish their seasons in Brooklyn, something very rare for the Mets, they usually want Brooklyn overtly stacked to win (really stupid, but whatever). Mejia's on track to begin 2009 in Savannah at age 19, well ahead of the game. It's not inconceivable that he could end his age 19 season in St. Lucie, either.

9. OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis L/R 8/7/87 A- Brooklyn

Before August: 39 for 147, 13 runs, 5 2b, 3b, HR, 11 RBI, 3/6 SBs, 18/34 BB/K, .265/.349/.333/.683

August: .293/.352/.474/.825 (39 for 133, 20 runs, 10 2b, 4 3b, 2 HR, 18 RBI, 8/12 SBs, 11/36 BB/K)

Season: .279/.350/.400/.750 (78 for 280, 33 runs, 15 2b, 5 3b, 3 HR, 29 RBI, 29/70 BB/K, 11/18 SBs)

Nieuwenhuis was drafted in the 3rd round (100th overall) this year. He posted a pretty good line for a lefty in Brooklyn, and should be in St. Lucie to open the 2009 season.

Tuesday, September 09, 2008

Prospect Focus: Emmanuel Garcia

Splits courtesy www.minorleaguesplits.com

Emmanuel Garcia was signed as an undrafted FA in 2004 out of Canada, and made his pro debut the next season in the rookie level Gulf Coast League, where he hit .339/.412/.409/.821 (63 for 186, 43 runs, 7 2b, 2 HR, 30 RBI, 21/36 BB/K, 17/18 SBs). Garcia's BB/K ratio was .5833, while his K rate was .194. Unfortunatley, I do not have his L/R splits from 2005.

In 2006, Garcia spent the bulk of the season with the Kingsport Mets of the rookie Appy League, where he hit .277/.362/.366/.728 (56 for 202, 35 runs, 5 2b, 2 3b, 3 HR, 25 RBI, 27/41 BB/K, 19/25 SBs). Overall, his BB/K ratio was .6585, a good improvement from the GCL, while his K rate decreased slightly to .203. He hit markedly better vs RHP (44 for 144, 5 2b, 2 3b, 2 HR, 23/26 BB/K, .306/.401/.431/.832) then LHP (12 for 58, 4/15 BB/K, .207/.258/.207/.465). His BB/K was .8846 vs RHP and only .2667 vs LHP, while his K rate was .181 vs RHP and a too high .257 vs LHP. Garcia got a brief 50 AB callup to the Brooklyn Cyclones of the low A NY Penn League, but the sample sizes in the splits are too small to draw any conclusions. He hit .240/.316/.240/.556 in 50 ABs (12 for 50, 5/13 BB/K).

In 2007, Garcia was promoted, as a 21 year old, to the St. Lucie Mets in the high A Florida State League, where he predictably struggled to hit for power or a particularly high average. He hit .257/.336/.300/.636 (130 for 506, 65 runs, 12 2b, 5 3b, 31 RBI, 62/108 BB/K), for a .5741 BB/K ratio, and a .213 K rate. What's extremely impressive about him is, in 2006 between Kingsport (a ROOKIE league) and Brooklyn (short season A ball), he struck out at a .211 rate (virtually no change). So the jump all the way to high A did not result in a higher strikeout rate. Also, this season, his BB/K ratio was 0.5741 (dividing BBs by Ks), while last year, it was 0.5926, so he did not worsen significantly there, either. Again, very impressive jumping 2 leagues the way he did.

His splits in St. Lucie as far as lefty/righty show that he hit marginally better versus LHP. He hit .271/.342/.321/.663 vs LHP, with 7 2b in 140 ABs, and a 15/31 BB/K ratio (0.4839), while hitting .251/.334/.292/.626 vs RHP, with 5 2b and 5 3b in 366 ABs, and a 47/77 BB/K ratio (0.6104). However, from June 1st to August 31st, he hit .285/.361/.342/.703. As you can see, the only thing "holding him back" is a decided lack of power. He did not hit 1 homer in 488 ABs at St. Lucie.While I do not have his splits during his hot streak, you can probably add 20-30 points to each category and be fairly safe, as a guesstimate.

THE FUTURE: Garcia, knowing the Mets, will be in Binghamton next season. However, I would give him 6 weeks in St. Lucie, let him really tear it apart, then promote him. It wouldn't hurt his plate discipline, either, to slow down his trek through the system. Garcia's ceiling is probably comparable to a Luis Castillo type, someone who won't hit for a whole lot (if any) power, but should hit alot of doubles (which would've been singles) and triples (which should've been doubles), and steal you quite a few bases.

UPDATE 2008: Garcia has spent the entire season in Binghamton (at least the non Olympic portion of it), and as we again predicted, he struggled mightily the first half of the season. Through the first two months of the season, he hit a miserable .217/.312/.251/.564 (39 for 179, 30 runs, 4 2b, 3b, 15 RBI, 9/13 SBs, 24/47 BB/K). His BB/K ratio is .5106, while his K rate had ballooned to .263.

However, after that 2 month adjustment period, Garcia's turned it on. From June 1st to July 27th (the day he left to join Team Canada), Garcia's hit .285/.322/.424/.746 (45 for 158, 18 runs, 8 2b, 3b, 4 HR, 23 RBI, 8/13 SBs, 9/27 BB/K). His BB/K ratio deflated to .3333, but his K rate also dropped markedly, to .171, the lowest of his career. However, the additional power has come at the expense of his plate discipline, as in the first 2 months, his IsoD was 95, and in the time since, his IsoD is 37. It is unknown if he will resume playing in the minor leagues once he returns from Bejing.

As in past seasons, Garcia's L/R splits are skewed to RHP, but this season is it a much closer differential. Garcia is hitting .238/.304/.337/.640 (24 for 101, 14 runs, 3 2b, 2 3b, HR, 11 RBI, 8/24 BB/K, 5/5 SBs) vs LHP, with a .3333 BB/K ratio and .238 K rate. Versus RHP, Garcia's hitting .254/.322/.331/.652 (60 for 236, 34 runs, 9 2b, 3 HR, 27 RBI, 25/50 BB/K, 12/21 SBs), with a .5000 BB/K ratio and .212 K rate.

Overall, Garcia is batting .249/.316/.332/.649 (84 for 337, 48 runs, 12 2b, 2 3b, 4 HR, 38 RBI, 33/74 BB/K, 17/26 SBs), with a .4459 BB/K ratio (the lowest of his career), and a .220 K rate (conversely, the highest of his career). However, as you've seen, much as he did last season, he is turning his season around in the 2nd half.

Garcia's gotten 1106 ABs in his minor league career, with a career .259/.334/.322/.656 line (286 for 1106, 31 2b, 9 3b, 7 HR, 127/239 BB/K), he's hit .237/.306/.291/.597 (76 for 320, 10 2b, 2 3b, HR, 29/76 BB/K) vs LHP, and .267/.346/.335/.681 (210 for 786, 21 2b, 7 3b, 6 HR, 98/163 BB/K) vs RHP.

THE NEW FUTURE: Here's hoping the Mets will allow him to open the 2009 season in Binghamton before pushing him to AAA (whereever it is). With so many high ceiling middle infielders now pushing through the system, Garcia's margin for error is slim to none. He *should* begin back in Binghamton, but knowing the Mets, he'll be in Syracuse (or whereever AAA ends up at).

Monday, September 08, 2008

Reviewing The Pre-Season Top Prospect List

Obviously, I wasn't writing here back in January, but, I'm sure I had some sort of talk with Tejesh to help/hurt a prospect on this list.

So, lets take a look at the MPH Pre-Season Top 10 Prospects.

This is not a new list, just a review of the old one.

1. Fernando Martinez: The obvious choice for #1, and still is the number one prospect in the system. Martinez had another injury plagued season in AA, but still managed to put up a .287/.340/.432 line in 352 AB's. He'll be playing winter ball this season to help makeup for the lost time. No Fall Or Rise In Stock.

2. Brant Rustich: Yeah...well...OK, this list was made in January, and at the time we all thought Rustich was on the fast track as a relief pitcher. It wasn't just MPH that was high on Rustich, Scout ranked him as the 4th best prospect, BA ranked him as the 5th best prospect, and I ranked him as the 3rd best prospect..

Anyways, in spring training it was decided that Rustich would be used as a stater this season. Rustich got off to a predictable slow start in Savannah, pitching to a 5.3 ERA in the first two months of the season, but he really turned it on after that, putting up a 2.86 ERA in the second half. However, it was not all positive, as Rustich went on the disabled list on August 25th with a stress fracture in his right arm. That injury causes him to take a major hit on his prospect status/ranking. Falling Stock.

3. Jon Niese: 3.04 ERA in 22 starts in AA, followed by a 3.40 ERA in AAA. His first MLB start didn't go great, but the kid is 21 years old, and I can't believe some of the reactions to his ONE start. Showed good groundball tendencies in the minors which is plus and now just needs to work on sharpening his pitches. Possible #5 starter next year, while probably looking at a #3 ceiling. Rising Stock:

4. Mike Carp: Coming off a disappointing 2007 season Mike Carp, fully healthy, put up a .299/.403/.471 line in 478 AB's this season. However, that line doesn't show that Carp, through about half of the season, hit for a .362 average. So, in about 2 and a half months Carp's average dropped .63 points, and it would of been more if not for the second wind he could in Mid-August.

Overall a very nice bounce back season from Carp, but, for the future, I just don't see Carp, with the emergence's of Murphy/Evans, fitting in with the big league team, and I think he'll be traded before next August. Rising Stock.

5. Nick Evans: I'll tell you what, I liked Nick Evans coming into this year, but there is no way anyone could have predicted the kind of year he had. During his time in AA he was arguably the best hitter in the Eastern League.. In 296 AB's, Evans had 39 extra base hits, he posted an OPS of .926, all while batting over .300. Rising Stock.

Evans earned himself a promotion to the big league club, and though he looked over matched early, it has become clear that he KILLS left handed pitching. The 22 year old is hitting .344 with a .901 OPS against lefties so far in his big league career. This makes Evans extremely valuable as a possible platoon player next year, or, possibly, a power right handed hitter from the bench.

6. Bobby Parnell: First of all, Happy 24th Birthday to Bobby Parnell - At least you didn't have to spend it rotting in the bullpen for another day. As for his season in the minors as a 23 year old, Parnell posted a 4.30 ERA in AA Binghamton, and earned himself a late season promotion to New Orleans, where he got rocked in 5 games (4 starts). No Fall Or Rise In Stock.

Here's the thing about Parnell. He has the stuff. He's got 2 good pitches, and he has the ability to get tons of groundballs. I'm just waiting for him to put it all together, and so far, I can't say he has. However, he's still a decent prospect, who projects as a back end starter or a set-up (2009??) guy.

7, Nathan Vineyard: Had high hopes for this guy coming out of High School, but suffered a rotator cuff (2 starts into his first pro season) injury that required surgery. A lot of his projection was based on him gaining velocity, and this surgery really hurts him projection wise. Falling Stock.

8. Scott Moviel: Got off to a slow start in Savannah in his first full season, but rebounded nicely after fixing some mechanics, and even earned a late season promotion to St. Lucie. Huge right handed, got a ton of groundballs, still incredibly young. Rising Stock.

9. Eddie Kunz: 27 saves with a 2.79 ERA with Binghamton, more impressive though, his 3.55 GO/FO ratio. Though, he didn't look MLB ready in his short time in the bullpen. Needs to work on his secondary pitches. Amazing to me that the Mets didn't call him back up in September. Stock Rose Then Fell.

10. Francisco Pena: You have to consider this season a success for the 18 year old catcher. His .264 batting average may not be impressive at first look, but considering he hit .210 last season, with just a .263 OBP, this was a major improvement. His 31 XBH this season were almost double the amount that he put up last year (17) in about the same number of at bats. Don't get me wrong, the kid is far from being a top prospect, especially seeing how he struck out 95 times, and walked just 25 times, in 397 AB's, but this season was a step in the right direction. Rising Stock.

This system has gotten remarkably better thanks to 3 picks inside the top 33, but also because of the emergence of prospects such as Daniel Murphy, Wilmer Flores, Dillion Gee, Micheal Antonini, Josh Thole, Meja, Cleto, the list goes on. There is a ton of talent in the lower half of this system to go along with guys who are about ready to contribute, and no, it's not as bad as people make it out to be.

The new top 10 list would look nothing like this. This list needs to be gutted (like the Mets bullpen), and redone. You can expect that sometime in the near future, though it's going to be tough to cut it down to a top 10 list--Believe me, I have a hard time leaving guys out on my top 20 lists.

Tej edit: David and I will probably release a top prospect list sometime soon (and hell, I might talk Charlie into doing one, too).

I want to go back to Mike Carp. I said he probably doesn't have a future with the organization, and though that's true, his one opportunity would be if he destroys AAA in 2009, and Nick Evans continues to crush left handed pitchers. This may (just my speculation after talking it over with Tej), be enough for the Mets to platoon Evans/Carp @ 1B in 2010 with the departure of Carlos Delgado. Just my two cents.

~visit me at Mets Prospectus

The Insight you only can get here, at MPH

David and I talking on AIM (about the Prospect Focuses)

Tejesh: i also have planned to do maldonado and coronado
David: why?
Tejesh: cause they're the only ones left who fulfill my requirement for the focus - in the system at least since 2006, semi-legit prospect
David: lol maldonado? semi? legit? what?
Tejesh: kinda legit? if you squint he's legit?
David: not even

This is the type of analysis you get here at MPH. Top notch research efforts to provide you expert analysis like the above.

Saturday, September 06, 2008

Hello There

For the rest of the 2008 season until the beginning of the 2009 season I'll be doing double duty blogging between here and my site, Mets Prospectus, to help keep the Hub running throughout the winter. Basically, I'll be posting any info, along with my opinions, on anything I come across that has to do with Mets Prospects.

As for me, I'm a senior in high school, who has been following the minor league system for the past two years. No, I don't get a chance to watch most of these guys live, but I do have resources such as accounts to Scout.com and Baseball America.

I hope to begin writing here sometime in the very near future, and I can't wait to hear your feedback.

9/6 Link

In all likelihood, this game is not happening. But just in case, here are your links (up early in case I lose power):

Gameday Brooklyn @ 6pm

Edit: 9/6 @ 4pm

As expected, the game has been cancelled, thus ending the 2008 regular season for the minor leagues, and our second season covering the minor leagues here at MPH. We'd like to thank all of you for hanging out with us through the season, on the chat box, via comment, via email...it's been fun. As I stated a couple days ago, we'll be entering a 3 week quiet period here, I'll be posting Prospect Focii every Monday around 3pm, we may get some top 20 lists going, but until the winter leagues start around October 1st, it should be 3 solid weeks of downtime here.


Friday, September 05, 2008

9/5 Minor League Report! Cyclones eliminated.

Brooklyn 3, Aberdeen 5

Yury Santana's error led to 2 unearned runs off him in the 11th, as Brooklyn lost 5-3. With Jamestown sweeping their doubleheader today (7-0 and 11-10), combined with Brooklyn's loss tonight, the Cyclones have been eliminated from playoff contention, by virtue of Jamestown holding the tiebreaker over Brooklyn. The Cyclones season will end tomorrow.

In this game, Scott Shaw started and was not particularly effective, giving up 4 hits and 3 runs (2 earned) over 4 inningss. The bullpen was good, until Santana's meltdown. Wendy Rosa, Matias Carrillo and Jeff Kaplan worked 5.1 innings of 3 hit scoreless relief.

Seth Williams had the only multi hit game for the Cyclones, while Eric Campbell (0 for 3, RBI, BB, K, .260), Jordan Abruzzo (0 for 2, 2 Ks, .275), Wilmer Flores (0 for 3, K, .267) and Jose Jimenez (0 for 3, RBI, .212) all took 0-fers.

cf Kirk Nieuwenhuis 1 for 5, run, .277
3b Juan Lagares 1 for 4, 2b, .250
c Cesar Cordido 1 for 3, .225
rf Seth Williams 3 for 3, run, 3b, .295
2b Josh Satin 1 for 3, run, RBI, .280
1b Ike Davis 1 for 4, K, .256
Scott Shaw 4 IP, 4 H, 3/2 R/ER, 2/2 BB/K, 2.80 era
Wendy Rosa 1.2 IP, 2/2 BB/K, 2.01 era
Matias Carrillo 2 IP, H, 2 Ks, 2.45 era
Jeff Kaplan 1.2 IP, 2 H, BB, 3.45 era
Yury Santana IP, 2 H, 2 R, BB, K, 2.45 era, L (2-4)
Roy Merritt 0.2 IP, BB, K, 1.49 era

9/5 Link

Brooklyn Boxscore
Brooklyn Gameday @ 7

Thursday, September 04, 2008

9/4 Brooklyn Report! Davis!

Brooklyn 5, Hudson Valley 3

The Cyclones did all their scoring in the first 5 innings, with Jordan Abruzzo's 2 run BOMB to left (with the wind howling in) ending up as the difference in the game. Chris Schwinden (86-88 fastball, touching 89-90, 73-75 curveball) worked 6 innings, allowing 6 hits and 2 runs to pick up his 4th win. Roy Merritt got the final out of the game with the tying runs on base to pick up his 4th save.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Jordan Abruzzo and Ike Davis had multi hit games for the Cyclones, while Juan Lagares (0 for 3, run, K, .250), Sean Ratliff (0 for 4, 3 Ks, .230), Wilmer Flores (0 for 4, 2 Ks, .296) and Dock Doyle (0 for 3, 2 Ks, .250) took 0-fers.

rf Kirk Nieuwenhuis 2 for 4, run, 2b, RBI, K, .279
lf Eric Campbell 1 for 3, run, RBI, BB, .264
c Jordan Abruzzo 3 for 4, run, HR, 3 RBI, K, .278
1b Ike Davis 2 for 3, BB, K, .256
2b Josh Satin 1 for 3, run, 2b, .279
Chris Schwinden 6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1/6 BB/K, 2.01 era, W (4-1)
Jimmy Johnson 2.2 IP, 3 H, ER, 1/2 BB/K, 1.25 era
Roy Merritt 0.1 IP, 1.51 era, SV (4)

9/4 Link

Brooklyn Boxscore
Brooklyn Gameday @ 7

FINAL update on Former Prospects...

Prospects traded away in the last year - Part IIII

1. Dustin Martin (traded for Luis Castillo) OF, L/L, 24, AA

4/14/08: .520/.517/.720/1.237, 13 for 25, 5 runs, 5 2b, 8 RBI, 2/3 BB/K, 3/3 SBs

5/5/08: .352/.398/.495/.893, 32 for 91, 19 runs, 6 2b, 2 3b, HR, 19 RBI, 8/22 BB/K, 8/9 SBs

5/29/08: .316/.381/.433/.814, 54 for 171, 29 runs, 10 2b, 2 3b, 2 HR, 33 RBI, 17/40 BB/K, 13/18 SBs

7/29/08: .289/.360/.433/.793, 108 for 374, 50 runs, 23 2b, 5 3b, 7 HR, 53 RBI, 39/88 BB/K, 18/27 SBs

9/4/08: .290/.355/.447/.802, 148 for 510, 69 runs, 34 2b, 8 3b, 10 HR, 72 RBI, 49/125 BB/K, 22/33 SBs

The fact he ended up with the same number of RBI as Mike Carp is stunning, not to mention he ended up with 5 more doubles. From the getgo, Martin hit much much better against lefties (.343/.403/.434/.836) then righties (.270/.337/.452/.789), though with more pop against RHP. Martin played this season at age 24, roughly 1.5 years older then you'd like a prospect to be in AA. Still, he's got a chance to be a decent/good player if he handles AAA well next season.

Bottom line: No regrets on trading away Dustin Martin. Many regrets on who we got for him.

2. Drew Butera (traded for Luis Castillo) C, R/R, 24 3/4, AA

4/14/08: .300/.364/.300/.664, 6 for 20, 4 runs, RBI, 2/3 BB/K

5/5/08: .177/.257/.194/.451, 11 for 62, 8 runs, 2b, 2 RBI, 7/14 BB/K

5/29/08: .196/.298/.295/.592, 22 for 112, 19 runs, 5 2b, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 17/21 BB/K

7/29/08: .219/.317/.344/.661, 54 for 247, 36 runs, 13 2b, 6 HR, 31 RBI, 32/44 BB/K

9/4/08: .219/.308/.354/.663, 66 for 302, 39 runs, 18 2b, 3b, 7 HR, 39 RBI, 35/55 BB/K

He had a great June with a .308/.378/.477/.855 line, but has regressed back to major suckitude in July, hitting a paltry .167/.286/.292/.577. About the only good thing you can say about Butera is that he has a good eye at the plate, but what good is it if he's hitting .219? A 98 IsoD isn't useful when it carries you to .317 for an OBP. And he turns 25 in a couple of weeks. Ouch.

Well, he had a "better" August, hitting .235/.286/.431/.717. Yeah. Not a good year at all for Butera. He played the majority of it at age 24, and performed very badly.

Bottom line: No regrets on trading away Dustin Martin. Many regrets on who we got for him.

3. Jose Castro (traded for Jeff Conine) SS, S/R, 21 1/2, AA

4/14/08: .280/.280/.440/.720, 7 for 25, 2 runs, 4 2b, 2 RBI, K

5/5/08: .250/.304/.344/.648, 16 for 64, 6 runs, 4 2b, 3b, 7 RBI, 4/4 BB/K

5/29/08: .231/.259/.282/.541, 18 for 78, 5 runs, 2 2b, 3b, 5 RBI, 2/2 BB/K, 1/2 SBs

Total 2008 Stats: (AA/A+): .234/.275/.303/.578, 34 for 145, 11 runs, 6 2b, 2 3b, 12 RBI, 6/6 BB/K, 1/3 SBs

7/29/08 (A+) .240/.274/.303/.578, 61 for 254, 23 runs, 7 2b, 3 3b, HR, 15 RBI, 7/18 BB/K, 2/5 SBs

Total 2008 Stats: (AA/A+/AA/A+) .239/.277/.307/.585, 77 for 322, 29 runs, 11 2b, 4 3b, HR, 22 RBI, 11/22 BB/K, 2/6 SBs

9/4/08 (A+) .238/.273/.297/.570, 85 for 357, 31 runs, 12 2b, 3 3b, HR, 15 RBI, 9/31 BB/K, 2/5 SBs

Total 2008 Stats: (AA/A+/AA/A+) .238/.275/.301/.576, 101 for 425, 37 runs, 16 2b, 4 3b, HR, 22 RBI, 13/35 BB/K, 2/6 SBs

He's proving that last year was a big fluke as far as his hitting went (.318/.363/.383/.746 in the FSL for the Mets), but we really didn't get a big return for him, and the next guy on this list turns this trade into one I regret wholeheartedly. Castro is no big loss.

4. Sean Henry (traded for Jeff Conine) OF, R/R, 22 3/4, A+, AA

4/14/08: 293/.370/.415/.784, 12 for 41, 6 runs, 3 2b, 3b, 7 RBI, 3/7 BB/K, 4/4 SBs

5/5/08: AA Chattanooga: .340/.404/.640/1.044, 17 for 50, 12 runs, 2 2b, 2 3b, 3 HR, 14 RBI, 5/12 BB/K, 3/4 SBs

Total 2008 Stats: .319/.388/.538/.927, 29 for 91, 18 runs, 5 2b, 3 3b, 3 HR, 21 RBI, 8/19 BB/K, 7/8 SBs

5/29/08: .301/.394/.504/.898, 34 for 113, 21 runs, 5 2b, 3 3b, 4 HR, 21 RBI, 16/26 BB/K, 6/8 SBs

Total 2008 Stats: .299/.388/.481/.868, 46 for 154, 27 runs, 8 2b, 4 3b, 4 HR, 28 RBI, 19/33 BB/K, 10/12 SBs

7/29/08: .319/.392/.514/.906, 91 for 286, 54 runs, 19 2b, 5 3b, 9 HR, 53 RBI, 30/56 BB/K, 13/18 SBs

Total 2008 Stats: .315/.389/.502/.891, 103 for 327, 60 runs, 22 2b, 6 3b, 9 HR, 60 RBI, 33/63 BB/K, 17/22 SBs

9/4/08 (AA): .285/.361/.455/.816, 113 for 396, 66 runs, 22 2b, 6 3b, 11 HR, 62 RBI, 42/75 BB/K, 16/23 SBs

Total 2008 Stats: (A+/AA).286/.362/.451/.813, 125 for 437, 72 runs, 25 2b, 7 3b, 11 HR, 69 RBI, 45/82 BB/K, 20/27 SBs

We could use a toolsy OF prospect, especially after trading away Milledge and Gomez, and with Nando's brittleness. Henry turns 23 in 2 1/2 weeks or so, but he's been doing the vast majority of his damage in the AA Southern League as a 22 year old, right in line for a prospect. After a down month power wise in June, he's tearing shit up in July with a .367/.452/.646/1.097 line in 79 ABs, with an 11/12 BB/K ratio. Of the 4 prospects traded for Castillo/Conine, this is the only one I regret now, although I was against both deals, for different reasons (Gotay, Castro could've been our RH power bat off the bench if we'd gone to 3 catchers, Conine was as useful a RH bat as I would've been).

Bottom Line: Useless trade for a useless pile of junk (Conine).
5. Deolis Guerra (traded for Johan) SP, R/R, 19, A+

4/14/08: 0-0, 0.90 era, 2 GS, 10 IP, 6 H, ER, HR, 6/8 BB/K

5/5/08: 2-1, 4.61 era, 6 G, 5 GS, 27.1 IP, 29 H, 16 R, 14 ER, 2 HR, 12/20 BB/K, 1.50 WHIP

5/29/08: 6-1, 4.23 era, 11 G, 10 GS, 55.1 IP, 52 H, 29 R, 26 ER, 4 HR, 26/32 BB/K, 0.64 GO/FO, .244 BAA, 1.41 WHIP

7/29/08: 10-5, 4.56 era, 20 G, 19 GS, CG, 104.2 IP, 102 H, 58/53 R/ER, 9 HR, 47/56 BB/K, 0.61 GO/FO, .253 BAA, 1.42 WHIP

9/4/08: 11-9, 5.47 era, 26 G, 25 GS, CGSO, 130 IP, 138 H, 85/79 R/ER, 12 HR, 71/71 BB/K, 0.61 GO/FO, .272 BAA, 1.68 WHIP

Guerra's repeating a level, and is having a nightmarish time of it. He had as bad an August as you could have (1-3, 8.44 era, 5 GS, 21.1 ip, 27 h, 20 er, 20/14 bb/k). He still has age on his side, but it is highly disconcerting to see him struggle so mightily in a repeat of a pitcher's league.

6. Kevin Mulvey (traded for Johan) SP, 23 1/6, R/R, AAA

4/14/08: 1-1, 0.84 era, 2 GS, 10.2 IP, 9 H, ER, 3/11 BB/K

5/5/08: 2-3, 3.82 era, 6 GS, 33 IP, 37 H, 15 R, 14 ER, 4 HR, 12/34 BB/K, 1.48 WHIP

5/29/08: 3-6, 4.07 era, 11 GS, 55.1 IP, 62 H, 32 R, 25 ER, 6 HR, 22/50 BB/K, 0.90 GO/FO, .279 BAA, 1.52 WHIP

7/29/08: 4-8, 3.87 era, 20 GS, CG, 104.2 IP, 107 H, 60/45 R/ER, 12 HR, 34/84 BB/K, 0.80 GO/FO, .261 BAA, 1.35 WHIP

9/4/08: 7-9, 3.77 era, 27 GS, CG, 148 IP, 152 H, 80/62 R/ER, 16 HR, 48/121 BB/K, 0.79 GO.FO, .265 BAA, 1.35 WHIP

Mulvey's having a very good July, except that he's still not pitching deep into games, averaging just about 5.5 IP/GS, he's walked just 4 in 29 innings, allowing 25 hits. He's exhibit A why W-L means nothing.

7. Philip Humber (traded for Johan) SP, 25 1/3, R/R, AAA

4/14/08: 0-2, 5 era, 2 GS, 9 IP, 12 H, 7 R, 5 ER, 1/5 BB/K

5/5/08: 1-3, 5.40 era, 8 G, 5 GS, 25 IP, 33 H, 20 R, 15 ER, 2 HR, 11/14 BB/K, 1.76 WHIP

5/29/08: 2-5, 5.19 era, 13 G, 10 GS, 50.1 IP, 60 H, 35 R, 29 ER, 5 HR, 27/29 BB/K, 1.02 GO/FO, .299 BAA, 1.73 WHIP

7/29/08: 6-7, 5.38 era, 25 G, 17 GS, 93.2 IP, 107 H, 63/56 R/ER, 16 HR, 42/70 BB/K, 0.69 GO/FO, .288 BAA, 1.59 WHIP

9/4/08: 10-8, 4.56 era, 31 G, 23 GS, 2 CG, 136.1 IP, 145 H, 76/69 R/ER, 21 HR, 49/106 BB/K, 0.73 GO/FO, .273 BAA, 1.42 WHIP

Humber was once again demoted to the bullpen for a brief period this year in July, making 5 relief appearances in between starts, and at least for now, the short term gains seem to be apparent, his last 2 GS, he's gone 12.2 innings, allowing 10 hits and striking out 15, going 2-0 with a 2.13 era. However, overall his season has been nothing short of a disaster, and 2 GS isn't going to change anything there. On the bright side, at least his K rate has been rising, 43 Ks in 43.1 innings in his last 2 months, after just 29 in his first 50.1 innings, and his walk rate is coming down. Still, he is 25 in AAA, on the verge of becoming irrelevant.

And he turned it around big time in August, earning a September callup to the Twins. Humber had a great month of August, going 4-1, 2.74 (6 GS, 2 CG, 42.2 IP, 38 H, 13 ER, 7/36 BB/K), bringing his numbers down to respectability. It appears, from his K rate, that his fastball's come back the last couple months (59 Ks in 67 IP July, August), after just 47 in 69.1 IP April-June.

8. Carlos Gomez (traded for Johan) OF, 22, R/R, MLB

4/14/08: .269/.296/.385/.681, 14 for 52, 4 2b, 3b, 4 RBI, 2/12 BB/K, 5/6 SBs

5/5/08: .271/.297/.374/.671, 29 for 107, 6 2b, 3b, HR, 8 RBI, 3/26 BB/K, 13/14 SBs

5/29/08: .293/.327/.429/.756, 58 for 198, 31 runs, 9 2b, 3 3b, 4 HR, 22 RBI, 8/51 BB/K, 17/22 SBs

7/29/08: .250/.284/.349/.633, 101 for 404, 54 runs, 17 2b, 4 3b, 5 HR, 33 RBI, 15/99 BB/K, 21/30 SBs

9/4/08: .252/.289/.341/.630, 125 for 496, 68 runs, 18 2b, 4 3b, 6 HR, 39 RBI, 21/124 BB/K, 28/38 SBs

Ouch. he's on pace to K 146 times this year, not good at all for a leadoff hitter. Even when Jose Reyes struggled with his walks, he didn't K nearly as much as Gomez is. Still, I'll stubbornly hold onto my Gomez 2008 = Reyes 2005 prediction, and we'll see where things end up (hopefully with a few more BBs, less Ks and more SBs for Gomez).

Wednesday, September 03, 2008

9.3 Minor League Report!

Brooklyn 9, Hudson Valley 6

Pedro P Martinez lasted just 1.1 innings, giving up 4 runs (3 earned) on 3 hits and a walk. Jim Fuller picked up his 2nd win with 3.2 terrific innings of long relief, with Roy Merritt getting his 3rd save with 1.1 perfect innings of relief.

A day after being held to just a run on 4 hits, the Cyclones offense burst out with a huge day, mashing 15 hits and collecting 5 walks, putting up 9 on the board. Eric Campbell, Sean Ratliff, Jordan Abruzzo, Ike Davis (hitting 3-4-5-6), Josh Satin and Dock Doyle all had multi hit games, while leadoff hitter Kirk Nieuwenhuis (0 for 3, 2 BBs, K, .275, 2 SB (10)), and Jose Jimenez (0 for 5, 3 Ks) took 0-fers.

ss Juan Lagares 1 for 6, 2 runs, RBI, .262
lf Eric Campbell 2 for 5, RBI, K, .263
cf Sean Ratliff 2 for 5, run, RBI, .235
dh Jordan Abruzzo 3 for 5, run, 2 2b, RBI, .267
1b Ike Davis 2 for 4, run, 2 2b, RBI, BB, K, .250
2b Josh Satin 2 for 3, 2 runs, 2 BBs, .277
ph, c Dock Doyle 3 for 5, 2 runs, 2 2b, 2 RBI, K, .308
Pedro P Martinez 1.1 IP, 3 H, 4/3 R/ER, 1/2 BB/K, HR, 3.63 era
Jim Fuller 3.2 IP, 5 H, 3 Ks, 1 era, W (2-0)
Jeff Kaplan 2.2 IP, 4 H, 2/1 R/ER, 1/2 BB/K, 3.57 era
Roy Merritt 1.1 IP, K, 1.52 era, SV (3)

The Cyclones remain 3 out of the division, and a half game up in the wildcare. Jamestown and Staten Island also won tonight.

9/3 Link


As we wind down our 2nd regular season here at MPH, here's a little preview of things to come during the fall/winter months.

Of course, we'll keep track of Brooklyn's march to the playoffs, then there's the winter leagues to keep track of, both domestic and international. Arizona, Hawaii, Dominican, Puerto Rico (apparently they are back in action), Mexico, Venezeula...and of course Gameday and Boxscore links for as many of those as we can do. We'll have a winter league directory up for you in the third week of September (assuming we know by then who's where, IIRC, information's a little slow in coming out this year).

And then I'll be doing weekly writeups on prospects, ala Daniel Murphy and Greg Veloz. Expect some end of season flurry of activity from both David and myself, various lists, prospect lists, leaderboard type stuff. Maybe some insights on who raised their stock and who performed below par.

All of that, of course, leading up to our third annual MPH System Audit, sometime in late January 09 or early February. Long way to go until then, however. So, as I said last year, it'll be getting quieter from here on out, but we won't be completely "shutting the doors" as the case may be.

9/2 Brooklyn Report

Brooklyn 1, Aberdeen 5

Jenrry Mejia had a very mixed outing tonight. On one hand, he pitched as deep into a game as he ever has as a pro, on the other hand, he gave up 4 runs on 4 hits (including 2 homers) to take his 2nd loss, snapping Brooklyn's 9 game winning streak. Overall, from a player development point of view, it was a very encouraging outing from the 18 year old fireballer.

The same thing that's put the Cyclones into this position, with their backs against the walls, doomed them tonight. A run on just 4 hits, with 6 0-fers. Juan Lagares (1 for 3, K, .271), Jose Jimenez (1 for 4, 2 Ks, .228), Sean Ratliff (1 for 1, .230), and Josh Satin (1 for 3, 2b, .269) had the hits. Wilmer Flores scored after drawing a walk for the only Cyclone run.

rf Kirk Nieuwenhuis 0 for 3, RBI, BB, 2 Ks, .278
lf Eric Campbell 0 for 4, .260
c Jordan Abruzzo 0 for 3, .257
1b Ike Davis 0 for 4, 2 Ks, .245
ss Wilmer Flores 0 for 3, run, BB, 2 Ks, .348
cf Rafael Fernandez 0 for 2, 2 Ks, .000
Jenrry Mejia 7 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 7 Ks, 2 HR, 3.49 era, L (3-2)
Erik Turgeon IP, H, R, BB, 2 Ks, 2.76 era

The Cyclones remained 3 out of first in the divison, and a half game out in the wildcare, with Staten Island and Jamestown both losing.

Tuesday, September 02, 2008

What do you think Jon Niese will do tonight?

Post your predictions in the comments section of this post.

I say: 5.2 ip, 8 h, 3 er, 3/5 bb/k, W

9/2 Link + As Requested: Prospect Focus - Greg Veloz


Splits courtesy www.minorleaguesplits.com

Veloz was signed out of the Dominican Republic and assigned to the DSL Mets. He was one of 2005's top 10 International prospects. In 2006, Veloz hit .262 for the DSL team with an OBP of .366.

Veloz split 2007 between full season Savannah and short season Kingsport, enduring a miserable 230 AB introduction to the US before earning a reprieve in Kingsport, where he showed off his 5 tools.

Veloz opened in Savannah, and as I said, he endured a miserable half season, hitting just .171/.243/.235/.478 (40 for 234, 20 runs, 7 2b, 3b, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 23/73 BB/K, 15/19 SBs), a .3151 BB/K ratio, and a very high .312 K rate, along with a 78.94% success rate on SBs. Batting righty (vs LHP), he hit .200/.302/.273/.575 (11 for 55, 2b, HR, 8/21 BB/K), a .3010 BB/K ratio and an absurdly high .382 K rate. Batting lefty (against RHP), Veloz hit .160/.220/.211/.431 (28 for 175, 4 2b, 3b, 14/50 BB/K), a .2800 BB/K ratio and a still high .285 K rate.

After putting up ... extremely inadequate numbers in Savannah, Veloz was moved down to rookie ball, the Appy League. In Kingsport, Veloz performed immensely better, and showed off hints of his 5 tool potential, hitting .271/.344/.450/.793 (70 for 258, 43 runs, 13 2b, 9 3b, 5 HR, 28 RBI, 26/62 BB/K, 18/25 SBs), with a much improved .4194 BB/K ratio a .240 K rate, and a 72% success rate on SBs. Unlike his stint in Savannah, in Kingsport he hit better against RHP. Batting lefty, he hit .279/.356/.469/.825 (50 for 179, 8 2b, 7 3b, 4 HR, 20/45 BB/K), with a .4444 BB/K ratio and a .251 K rate. Versus LHP (batting righty), Veloz hit .243/.309/.405/.714 (18 for 74, 5 2b, 2 3b, HR, 6/17 BB/K), a .3529 BB/K ratio and a .229 K rate.

Overall in 2007, Veloz hit .224/.296/.348/.644 (110 for 492, 63 runs, 20 2b, 10 3b, 7 HR, 42 RBI, 49/135 BB/K, 33/44 SBs), with a .3629 BB/K ratio, a .274 K rate, and a 75% success rate on SBs. He hit roughly equal from both sides of the plate, hitting .225/.306/.349/.655 (29 for 129, 6 2b, 2 3b, 2 HR, 14/38 BB/K) from the right side and .220/.290/.342/.632 (78 for 354, 12 2b, 8 3b, 5 HR, 34/95 BB/K) from the left side.

Veloz started off the 2008 season right back in Savannah, and got off to a rough start, hitting .214/.274/.306/.580 in April, but from May 1st to his promotion to St. Lucie, he performed very well (most of it done as a 19 year old), hitting .307/.358/.430/.788 (110 for 358, 55 runs, 21 2b, 4 3b, 5 HR, 43 RBI, 17/26 SBs, 26/73 BB/K). Overall, though, he hit .286/.339/.402/.742 (130 for 455, 68 runs, 25 2b, 5 3b, 6 HR, 52 RBI, 32/93 BB/K, 28/40 SBs), with a .3441 BB/K ratio and a vastly improved .204 K rate, along with a 70% success rate on SBs.

Veloz hit just .238/.288/.331/.619 batting righty (31 for 130, 7 2b, 3b, HR, 6/22 BB/K), a .2723 BB/K ratio, with a .169 K rate. The K rate is very encouraging, since with Veloz' speed, if he's making consistent contact on the ground, he can potentially beat those grounders out for hits. Against RHP (batting lefty), Veloz hit well, .312/.366/.437/.803 (102 for 327, 18 2b, 4 3b, 5 HR, 26/70), for a .3714 BB/K, and a .214 K rate.

THE FUTURE: Veloz is in St. Lucie right now, and while there IS a glut of middle infield prospects projected to be ready for the level next year (Veloz, Ruben Tejada, Reese Havens, Juan Lagares, some would say Wilmer Flores (I wouldn't)) - I would expect Veloz to open in St. Lucie as the everyday 2b.

Monday, September 01, 2008

9/1 Minor League Report! CORONADO, NIEUWENHUIS, HOLT!

Binghamton 1, New Britain 3

The BMets ended their season with a lefty on the mound, the same way they started it. However, the lefty in question is Michael Antonini, who rocketted up the system this year, with stops in Savannah (4-4, 2.71 era, 13 GS, 73 IP), St. Lucie (4-0, 1.84 era, 7 GS, 44 IP), and Binghamton (1-3, 3.74 era, 8 GS, 45.2 IP). Overall, Antonini had as fine a season as any starter in full season ball for the Mets, going 9-7 with a sparkling 2.77 era in 28 GS, spanning 162.2 innings. He is poised to open 2009 in Binghamton, where he'll split his age 23/24 season. Casey Hoorelbeke and Edgar Alfonzo pitched the final 2 innings of the season.

Mike Carp ended his season in with a .2991 average, a shade below .300. He went 0 for 2 with 2 walks and 2 Ks, his season line ends up at .299/.403/.471. Fernando Martinez went 1 for 4 with a 2b, BB, K, ending his season at .287/.339/.432. Shawn Bowman took the Golden Sombrero, with 4 Ks in 4 ABs. Josh Petersen (0 for 4, 2 Ks, .288), and Peeter Ramos (0 for 4, K, .207) also took 0-fers.

2b Emmanuel Garcia 1 for 4, RBI, BB, 3 Ks, .243
ss Jose Coronado 3 for 5, .260
cf Fernando Martinez 1 for 4, 2b, BB, K, .287
rf Mike Carp 0 for 2, 2 BBs, 2 Ks, .299
lf Jon Malo 1 for 4, run, K, .261
c Saloman Manriquez 1 for 2, 2 BBs, .271
Michael Antonini 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2/4 BB/K, 3.74 era, L (1-3)
Casey Hoorelbeke IP, 3 H, ER, BB, 2.65 era
Edgar Alfonzo IP, 2 H, 4.26 era

Savannah 4, Charleston 2

The Gnats ended their season with a win, as Mark Cohoon went 6 for his 2nd SAL win. Michael Powers picked up the save with a perfect 9th.

Ralph Henriquez had the only multi hit game for the Gnats, while Brad Hubbert (0 for 3, BB, K, .194) and Luis Nieves (0 for 3, .179) took 0-fers.

2b Michael Parker 1 for 4, 2 Ks, .198
cf Carlos Guzman 1 for 4, run, K, .269
3b, 1b Stefan Welch 1 for 3, run, BB, .263
dh Ralph Henriquez 2 for 4, run, 2b, K, .273
3b Nick Giarraputo 1 for 3, RBI, K, .242
lf Darren Clark 1 for 4, run, 2 RBI, K, .247
c Tony Maccani 1 for 3, RBI, .233
Mark Cohoon 6 IP, 5 H, ER, 1/3 BB/K, 3.82 era, W (2-2)
Mitch Houck 2 IP, 3 H, R, 1/2 BB/K, 2.25 era
Michael Powers IP, 2.25 era, SV (1)

Brooklyn 5, Aberdeen 2

The Cyclones refuse to lose coming down the stretch, they won their 9th in a row, with Brad Holt dominating Aberdeen, striking out 12 in 5.2 innings to pick up his 5th win. Yury Santana picked up the save, his 13th, while accomplishing the rare "strike out 4 in an inning" feat. One of those obviously coming on a WP.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis had a big game out of the leadoff spot, with 3 hits, including his 3rd homer, driving in 3 and scoring 2 on the day. Eric Campbell (0 for 3, BB, K, .265), Jordan Abruzzo (0 for 4, K, .262), Reese Havens (0 for 4, 2 Ks, .250) and Ike Davis (0 for 3, BB, 2 Ks, .250) all took 0-fers.

The Cyclones remain 3 out in the division, and are now a half game back of Jamestown for the wildcard.

rf Kirk Nieuwenhuis 3 for 5, 2 runs, HR, 3 RBI, .281
3b Juan Lagares 1 for 4, RBI, .268
ss Wilmer Flores 1 for 4, run, .400
cf Sean Ratliff 1 for 4, run, RBI, K, .226
2b Josh Satin 1 for 3, run, .267
Brad Holt 5.2 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 2/12 BB/K, 1.87 era, W (5-3)
Matias Carrillo 2.1 IP, 3 H, 2 Ks, 2.61 era
Yury Santana IP, BB, 4 Ks, 2.55 era, SV (13)

And Then There Were 3 (Links)

Binghamton @ 130 (Season finale)
Savannah @ 2 (Season finale)