Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Top 9 potentially aggresive and-or stupid promotion candidates for 2009

The WLR for today is pretty irrelevant, it'll be up around 7pm tonight. I'll try and crank out some articles for you between now and then.

Also - a quickie update on the third annual System Audit - I've been thinking of moving it permanently to a March 1st release date. So we'll do that this year, and see how it goes.
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1. Jenrry Mejia to St. Lucie (FSL, A+)

Where he was in 2008: Split season between the GCL and Brooklyn, NYPL

What he did: 2-0, 0.60 in 15 innings (GCL), 3-2, 3.49 in 56.2 innings (NYPL)

Why it would be aggresive: Mostly due to age, as Mejia will not turn 20 until AFTER the 2009 season. His performance certainly dictates a promotion to St. Lucie wouldn't be foolish, but with the age cushion, I'd rather see the Mets err on the side of caution here. They like will not.

2. Francisco Pena St. Lucie (FSL, A+)

Where he was in 2008: Savannah, SAL

What he did: Absolutely nothing. .264/.308/.380/.688 in 397 ABs

Why it would be aggresive: Because in his two seasons in Savannah, his combined line reads like a horror show: .238/.286/.334/.620 in 764 ABs. However, the chances of Pena repeating Savannah for a third time are ridiculously slim to none, so expect him to be in St. Lucie, putting up more of the same awful offensive numbers.

3. Greg Veloz to Binghamton (EL, AA)

Where he was in 2008: Savannah mostly SAL, A, St. Lucie for a month;

What he did: Savannah .286/.339/.402/.742 in 455 ABs, St. Lucie .234/.298/.247/.544

Why it would be aggresive: Look at those St. Lucie numbers. Now consider his "breakout" consisted of a .742 OPS in the Sally League. But we've seen the Mets jump toolsy guys with little offensive numbers behind them before (see: Gomez, Carlos) - so it's not a stretch to imagine Veloz in BInghamton. It would be highly stupid, but not a stretch. Oh yeah, he hit just .207/.281/.230/.511 in Hawaii in 87 ABs, bringing his numbers above Savannah to a scintillating .220/.289/.238/.527 in 164 ABs.

4. Ruben Tejada to Binghamton (EL, AA)

Where he was in 2008: St. Lucie FSL, A+

What he did: .229/.293/.296/.588 in 497 ABs

Why it would be aggresive: Because the performance was putrid, and because he also doesn't turn 20 until just before the end of the 2009 season (9/1/89). If that isn't enough for you, how about because he spent 2007 between the VSL and GCL, then spent 2008 in St. Lucie milling around the Rey Ordonez line? But again, there's precedent for moving him up (see Coronado, Jose).

5. Wilmer Flores to St. Lucie (FSL, A+)

Where he was in 2008: Kingsport (vast majority of the season), 5 ABs in Savannah, 30 ABs in Brooklyn

What he did: .310/.352/.490/.842 in 245 ABs (Kingsport).

Why it would be aggresive: Because he doesn't turn 18 until August 6th 2009. Age is very much on his side, the Mets should definitely err on the side of caution here, and thankfully, with the middle infield logjam in St. Lucie (Veloz, Tejada, Havens, potentially Lagares) - Wilmer should start in Savannah.

6. Nick Carr to Binghamton (EL, AA)

Where he was in 2008: St. Lucie living through a nightmare

What he did: 2-10, 5.70 era in 94.2 innings.

Why it would be aggresive: Well, first of all, because he didn't get his first win until August 16th, second of all because his ERA was well over 6 until his final 4 starts, and third of all, because he'll play all of 2009 at age 22. He had a year to play with, and the Mets should use it right here, and not allow a bad situation to get much worse with a premature promotion to Binghamton.

7. Brad Holt to Binghamton (to begin the season)

Where he was in 2008: UNC Wilmington (NCAA), Brooklyn (NYPL, A-)

What he did: 11-1, 3.18 era in 93.1 innings (NCAA), 5-3, 1.87 era in 72.1 innings (NYPL)

Why it would be aggresive: Because he's basically got one plus pitch and then several less then stellar offerings. Also, there is no harm in letting him go to the lower level and demolishing it for a month or two before moving him up.

8. Cesar Puello to Savannah (SAL, A)

Where he was in 2008: GCL

What he did: .305/.350/.364/.714 in 151 ABs with 13/18 SBs

Why it would be aggresive: It's less aggresive then it looks on the surface, mostly due to Puello's nightmare June in which he struck out 14 times in 33 ABs and compiled a .242/.265/.273/.537 line. Still, with him not putting up the numbers of a Flores or a Marte, it would be advisable to be conservative with Puello, who will play all of 2009 at age 18. However, it's very likely the Mets will push Puello to Savannah, and then have to move him to Kingsport when the short season opens.

9. Javier Rodriguez to Savannah (SAL, A)

Where he was in 2008: PR Baseball Academy, GCL (R)

What he did: .193/.258/.237/.495 in 135 ABs (GCL)

Why it would be aggresive: Because that line sucks, and unlike Puello, Rodriguez' best month was July where he hit an off the charts .215/.276/.278/.554. It really would behoove the Mets to hold him back in extended ST and then place him either back in the GCL, or move him up to Kingsport (and even that may be too aggresive considering his line in the GCL).

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