Analysis of Jon Niese and Mike Carp

OK, here's the deal, I began writing an article, and then realized I didn't want to rehash the top 15 list I did last month, which is what I was on my way to doing. So I scrapped the idea, but I'd already done writeups for Niese and Carp. So instead of throwing that stuff away, I decided to post it. Enjoy. And hey, if you guys like it, I'll do some more writeups like these.
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LHSP Jon Niese

After spending the balance of the 2007 season working on his conditioning and his control (sacrificing everything else), Jon Niese arrived in AA Binghamton off an outstanding big league spring training (1-0, 3.12 era, 3 GS, 8.2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 7/6 BB/K).

In 2007, Niese carved his walk rate to a scant 34 in 143.1 innings (2.13 per 9) from 67 in 133.2 innings (4.51 per 9). However, this was at the expense of every other peripheral. His hit rate spiked to 155 in 143.1 innings (9.73 per 9) from 129 in 133.2 innings (8.69 per 9). His strikeout rate also deteriorated, from 142 in 133.2 innings (9.56 per 9) to 122 in 143.1 innings (7.66 per 9). With all the work done to lower his walk rate, it paid off in the total number of baserunners Niese had to deal with, as measured by WHIP (Walks + Hits per Inning Pitched). It was 1.32 in 2007, versus 1.47 in 2007, a drop of .15 baserunners per inning, or 1.35 per 9 innings.

2008 has seen him attempt to consolidate the improvements from 2007, with the other periphs from 2006. His walk rate is in between the two extremes at 3.48 per 9 (32 in 82.2 innings), and his hit rate is down from his 2007 levels, 8.16 per 9 (75 in 82.2 innings). His WHIP is at the lowest of his career, at 1.29. The only remaining flaw in Niese's game is his inability to pitch deep into games, although that may be the organization holding him back (he pitched 6 innings on 6/22/06 throwing 88 pitches, and could've been pushed to go 7 if they'd chosen to).

Niese is death on lefties with his 88-92 fastball and low to mid 70s curve, he is holding EL lefties to a .226 BAA, and a 1.96 era in 18.1 innings. Righties are not killing him, he's held them to a .245 BAA and a 3.36 era in 64.1 innings. All 3 of his homers allowed are to RHB. Niese yielded 9 homers last year in 134.1 regular season innings (.60 per 9), and he's further cut that down to .33 per 9 this season.

1B/LF Mike Carp

While Carp is in a miserable 2 for 24 slump, he is still enjoying his best pro season to date, with a .341/.413/.518/.931 line in 249 ABs in Binghamton.

That is a far cry from the utterly lost season Carp suffered through in Binghamton last year, where he hit .251/.337/.387/.724 in 359 ABs. Carp has already had 26 XBH this season, whereas he only had 27 all of last season, he's on a pace to walk 65 times and strike out 90, vastly improved from 2007's pace of 39/75. His BB/K ratio in 2008 is 0.744, vastly improved from the 0.520 it was last year.

However, the biggest improvement in Carp's game, and the reason we (and I in particular) have been absolutely pounding the table on him, is his numbers vs LHP. Last season, he was a pathetic 19 for 110 vs LHP, a stunningly laughable .173 with a putrid .422 OPS, and 25 Ks in 110 ABs (.227 K rate). However, this season, he's gone nuclear on LHP, batting .310/.348/.488/.836 in 84 ABs. He's got 26 hits, including 7 XBH, and a 15/84 K rate (.179). With the way Carp can destroy RHP (.279/.377/.457/.834) in a down season last year, and .358/.443/.533/.976 in a very good up season this year, Carp needs to only hold his own vs LHP at the big league level (think .750 OPS or so), to be a very productive MLB player.
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Minor League Report is below this post.